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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 For the first time in what feels like a very long time,
00:07 maybe the first time in this NBA postseason, only one game to break down for you.
00:12 On this Thursday, it's a monumental matchup in Minneapolis, do not get me wrong.
00:17 But only one game, tips at 8.30 PM Eastern Time tonight in the Twin Cities.
00:22 It is game number six between Denver and Minnesota.
00:26 The Nuggets one win away from their second consecutive appearance in
00:30 the Western Conference Finals.
00:31 Minnesota needs a win or their season comes to a close tonight.
00:37 The odds makers have the Timberwolves booked as a slight two and
00:40 a half point home favorite.
00:42 Total is at 205.
00:44 Donnie right side, look into your crystal ball.
00:46 As one of the foremost premier NBA handicappers on this network,
00:50 tell us what happens.
00:52 Does Minnesota force a game seven back in the Mile High City?
00:56 Or is Denver dancing to the Western Conference Finals?
00:59 >> I'd say it's nice to have a standalone game and also for this segment, Ben,
01:02 do we have enough talent to make it through here?
01:04 Do we need multiple guests to help us along to talk about this?
01:07 I think we'll be okay.
01:08 I think we will be okay in this one.
01:10 Here's the tough part about it.
01:11 Talk to us when coach came on.
01:13 We saw like a lightning bolt coming into the playoffs here.
01:16 The Minnesota Timberwolves, I mean, clowned the Suns,
01:18 very talented Suns team in round number one.
01:21 Then went on home court here for Denver and beat them up over two games.
01:24 We thought they were moving forward to the Western Conference Finals and
01:27 three losses later, you're now on the brink of elimination.
01:30 I need to see how this basketball team is gonna come out and
01:32 also we'll give coach props first quarter, right?
01:35 You need to have a big effort in your first quarter at home to keep that crowd
01:38 involved and say, you know what?
01:39 Even though we just lost three straight to the reigning NBA champions,
01:42 we can still win this series.
01:44 But if I'm looking at it from a betting perspective,
01:46 and how many times have I told you this, Ben?
01:48 Taking a correlated look, if you like Minnesota tonight,
01:51 why is Minnesota going to this game?
01:52 Cuz Carl Anthony Towne scores 44 points.
01:54 No, it's Anthony Edwards.
01:56 You take a look at his points, it's 29 and a half.
01:59 You tell me right now, Ben, Anthony Edwards scores 24 points,
02:02 what that final score is going to be.
02:04 They lose that game and they're knocked out of the playoffs.
02:07 If he scores 34 points, there's no guarantee they win.
02:10 If he scores 44, there's still no guarantee that he wins.
02:14 But what I need tonight is that usage rate to be high, the cape to be on,
02:18 which we know he's talented enough to put that team on his shoulders.
02:21 That's what I expect tonight.
02:23 So from a side perspective, it's sort of a cop out.
02:25 Am I rooting for the Timberwolves to get a game seven in here?
02:27 Absolutely.
02:28 But I know better than that.
02:29 Momentum, your three straight wins, the Denver Nuggets have figured out what
02:33 the Minnesota Timberwolves do well, and have put a stop to that.
02:36 But the one thing I don't think they can stop tonight is we're talking about
02:38 Anthony Edwards scoring, excuse me, shooting 25 plus times from the floor
02:43 tonight, which should give him a big effort.
02:44 I really like him over 29 and a half points and I had to do.
02:48 So it's been a very interesting story in this series from the total perspective.
02:53 First two games in Denver, total was 209 and a hook.
02:57 The Nuggets did not score 100 on their own home four.
03:00 Total stays under.
03:02 Last three games, the total has been virtually this at 205 in all three games
03:07 over, one because in game three, Denver scored 117.
03:12 In game number five, Denver scored 112.
03:15 Only in game four have we seen both teams get to the century mark and
03:20 it sailed over 205.
03:22 If you think that is Minnesota's recipe, and you think Anthony Edwards does what
03:26 he did in game number four, score 44, albeit in a loss, this total is going over.
03:32 Again, you do not have much margin.
03:34 If both teams even flirt with 100 to go or to stay under, I should say, 205.
03:41 And I think offensively, the Timberwolves give their best effort.
03:44 And I think defensively, what Minnesota was so strong at doing in the first two
03:49 games has not fared nearly as well here in the last three.
03:53 Nikola Jokic is on a warpath.
03:56 Nikola Jokic is back to that MVP level that he was not really able to find in
04:01 the opening two games in the Mile High City.
04:04 I don't know what the defensive adjustment is for
04:07 Chris Finch and the Tee Wolves tonight.
04:09 If you take Rudy Gobert, the four-time defensive player of the year,
04:13 off the three-time NBA MVP.
04:16 But I don't expect Jokic to stay well under 29 and a half either,
04:21 nor do I for Ant to stay under 29 and a half.
04:24 Donnie, I think both teams get to 100 tonight in game six.
04:27 I like the over in Minneapolis.
04:29 >> Yeah, it could be, it really could be.
04:31 You know me, I usually lean towards the unders late, but
04:33 we're not talking about an under that's 217 and a half.
04:35 And we're talking about 205, which means you would have to have a glacier pace
04:39 out here to stay under the 205 with not a lot of efficiency when we know there
04:43 are a couple guys on both of these teams that can certainly fill it up.
04:46 But it's just a matter of fact, again, getting back to last night,
04:49 give me that superstar player in the biggest moment.
04:51 There's no bigger superstar, at least on the court,
04:53 when you take a look at the MVP here for the Denver Nuggets.
04:57 If he is going to have a good game, and do we expect anything less?
05:00 Like honestly, what's more appropriate tonight?
05:02 45, 19, and 13, yeah, that makes some sense.
05:06 Or if he just goes out and has 15, 14, and 12.
05:08 No, we expect the biggest performance in the biggest moment here.
05:12 And this is one where you don't wanna let the Timberwolves hang around.
05:15 Cuz the one thing you do know, it's not like, okay,
05:16 everybody's won their home court, it's no big deal.
05:18 We're going home for game number seven.
05:20 The Timberwolves have won on the home court there for the Denver Nuggets.
05:23 You wanna put that fire out as soon as you can get.
05:26 Now when you're looking at price point here,
05:27 do we expect triple doubles out of here for the Coliocas?
05:30 We always do.
05:31 It's a plus 200 tonight, but I think we get a monster effort out of him
05:35 hoping to close the door on Minnesota.
05:37 But I wanna see how they come out in the first half.
05:39 And if we're looking at any ways here, give me the big man,
05:42 Anthony Edwards in that first quarter, seven, eight, nine points and away you go.
05:47 I think this game is gonna be closely contested.
05:49 I don't really have a side that I love as opposed to, I said,
05:51 rooting on the Timberwolves.
05:53 I think the over 205 does make some sense.
05:55 But if I'm just looking from a points perspective, give me the two superstars.
05:58 Both of those guys who have high usage rates,
06:00 we should get fireworks between those two.
06:02 >> And I'll just say this from the side perspective, don't take plus two and
06:07 a half.
06:08 If you think the Nuggets are the right side as the underdog,
06:11 just bet the Moneyline a plus 110.
06:14 It would be a crazy change to see this series decided by three points or less.
06:19 All five games so far, at least an eight point margin.
06:23 Four of the five by double digits and pretty considerably so.
06:28 Of course, Denver was the first home team in this series to win a game.
06:32 That happened in game number five.
06:35 First home team to cover a number then as well.
06:39 All three games Denver has won, total over because the offenses hit at least 100.
06:45 The two victories for Minnesota, total under, holding Denver to under 100.
06:50 There are those natural correlations as well.
06:54 We'll continue to dive into the prop market for
06:57 this game because I've got my best bet for game number six tonight in Minneapolis.
07:02 Already locked in and it features not Nicole Okich, not Jamal Murray, but
07:07 Aaron Gordon.
07:09 Plenty more conversation with the lone NBA playoff game that we have on this
07:13 Thursday.
07:14 Denver one win away from a second straight Western Conference Finals appearance.
07:18 Minnesota one loss away from its season coming to a close.
07:22 More next.
07:22 Only one NBA playoff game on this Thursday night slate, but
07:27 it's a huge one in Minnesota.
07:29 The Timberwolves host the Nuggets.
07:31 The T-Wolves need a win to stave off elimination and force a game seven.
07:37 The Nuggets need a win and they are back in the Western Conference Finals.
07:41 Minnesota a two and a half point favorite over under is 205.
07:46 The Stars on both sides both have the same points prop,
07:49 29 and a half for both Anthony Edwards and Nicola Yokich.
07:53 I expect both as does Donnie to flirt with those numbers.
07:57 The Joker to record a triple double plus 200.
08:00 What was so funny DRS about Nicola Yokich's otherworldly performance in
08:05 game number 5, 40 points, 13 dimes as he fell three rebounds shy of a triple double.
08:12 Game five was the first time you stayed away from that triple double prop in
08:17 quite some time, and you wouldn't expect if it's going to be in double digits,
08:22 that it's not rebounds for Yokich.
08:25 His rebounding prop tonight is 12 and a half.
08:28 So if he can continue the other two categories and pick up a couple more
08:32 boards, boom, plus 200, that two to one number to have a triple double.
08:37 >> Yeah, it is. You want to include that in a parlay piece.
08:39 That's nice. Plus 200.
08:40 A round robin piece.
08:41 You can certainly do that.
08:42 The one thing that we love about the Joker is what?
08:45 If you take the triple double, he never has an off night.
08:48 What I mean by this is, unless he gets hurt,
08:50 which apparently he doesn't get hurt either.
08:52 It's like, does he ever have a 36 and three game?
08:55 Like, never.
08:56 Like, it's always like, ooh, at least a mandatory double double.
09:00 And he just misses by a rebound or two or an assist or two.
09:03 That's when you love taking those plus, because it's not a minus 145 bet.
09:06 You're getting two plus 200 plus 300 on a night to night basis that you know is
09:10 a great wager every night because all you can ask for
09:13 when you're taking dog prices, Ben, is a chance to hit that.
09:16 When you say, okay, I'm going to take Dante DiVincenzo to hit six threes and
09:19 he hits none of them.
09:19 You're like, well, that was a terrible bet at this point.
09:22 But Jokic always keeps you in the ballgame.
09:23 That's what we love about it.
09:24 So every day on a night to night basis,
09:27 you can't go wrong with betting that triple double for him.
09:29 >> No triple doubles in this series, maybe he is due.
09:34 Also a 40.13 assist performance in game five, zero turnovers as well.
09:40 Nicole Jokic continues to show why he is the best basketball player
09:44 on planet Earth.
09:46 My best bet for game number six, my favorite bet for
09:49 this sixth game tonight in Minnesota, Aaron Gordon, one made three at minus 130.
09:56 AG's points prop is 14 and a half, a number he has been over in three of
10:00 the five games in this series to straight for Denver, 27 in game four,
10:05 18 in game number five.
10:07 He has made at least two triples in both of the games in the Twin Cities.
10:12 I think you're getting a discounted number.
10:13 And as J.Y. said earlier in the show,
10:16 we wonder what the defensive adjustments are going to be for Minnesota tonight.
10:21 They can't just keep letting Rudy Gobert try to guard Nicole Jokic one on one.
10:26 Those are some kickouts for Aaron Gordon behind the line.
10:29 You only need one, one three at minus 130.
10:34 [MUSIC]