بعد صدور بيانات الفدرالي.. هل يكرّر المركزي الأوروبي سيناريو عام 2011 أو يتراجع عن قرار خفض الفائدة المتوقّع في يونيو؟
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00:00After the U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed interest rates in its meeting in May and confirmed that inflation will continue to decline, but at a slower pace, will the European Central Bank withdraw from its expected decision to lower interest rates in June?
00:21The Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell confirmed interest rates at 5.25% and 5.5% in a meeting in May, after confirming that inflation will continue to decline, but at a slower pace, and said that today there is a long-term outlook.
00:44If we go back to the statements of Christina Lagarde, the former European Central Bank President, it was considered that the next step in the meeting in June will likely be to lower interest rates, with the condition of maintaining tax data and inflation on its current path.
01:01If we go back to previous years, we notice that the European Central Bank followed a low-interest approach twice before the U.S. Federal Reserve, the first time in 1999 and the second time in November 2011.
01:17Therefore, the question is repeated today, will the European Central Bank repeat the same approach in 2024?
01:25If we look at the inflation data and the prices of producers in the United States, we notice that the prices of producers have risen more than expected during April, by 15% on a monthly basis.
01:41Even if we look at the inflation data, we note that in March, inflation rose 3.5% on an annual basis, under pressure from rising energy prices and services prices.
01:53On the other hand, if we look today at the inflation rate in the euro area, we notice that it stabilized and rose 2.4% in April.
02:04Therefore, we notice that inflation is closer to the target, which is 2% in the euro area, compared to the United States.
02:13However, we note that there are opponents who say that a decrease in interest rates in June in the euro area may also lead to a decrease in the economy,
02:24because it will lead to a decrease in the value of the euro in exchange for the dollar.
02:28Today, the U.S. Federal Reserve, if it does not decrease interest rates, the dollar will continue to rise.
02:34On the other hand, if the value of the euro decreases, this may affect the increase in inflation in Europe.
02:40Therefore, the question remains, will the European Central Bank withdraw its expected decision to decrease interest rates in June?