Chinese President Xi Jinping has wrapped up his first trip to Europe in five years, visiting France, Serbia and Hungary. The trip came in the middle of mounting trade disputes and security concerns between China and the EU.
On this episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Laurel Stewart sits down with Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, the author of “Europe, China, and the Limits of Normative Power,” and a China and Taiwan fellow at Agora Strategy. We first zoom in on the reasons for Xi’s choice of destinations, then zoom out to understand how Russia and the U.S. factor into EU-China relations.
This interview was recorded on May 8, 2024.
On this episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Laurel Stewart sits down with Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, the author of “Europe, China, and the Limits of Normative Power,” and a China and Taiwan fellow at Agora Strategy. We first zoom in on the reasons for Xi’s choice of destinations, then zoom out to understand how Russia and the U.S. factor into EU-China relations.
This interview was recorded on May 8, 2024.
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00:00Welcome to Zoom In, Zoom Out, your global look at news from here in Taiwan and around
00:16the world.
00:17I'm Laurel Stewart.
00:19Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Europe for the first time in five years.
00:24He's visiting three countries, France, Serbia and Hungary.
00:28It's a trip seen as part of efforts to find stability amid mounting trade disputes and
00:32security concerns between China and the EU.
00:36To help make sense of the trip and its implications for China-Europe relations, we're joined today
00:41by Susa Anavaransi.
00:43Susa is the author of Europe, China and the Limits of Normative Power.
00:48And she's also a China and Taiwan fellow at the Agora Strategy geopolitical consultancy.
00:54Susa, welcome to the show.
00:57Thanks for having me.
00:58Let's first Zoom In.
01:00Xi Jinping first went to France.
01:02He met with French President Emmanuel Macron and the EU Commission head, Ursula von der
01:08Leyen.
01:09What has been the focus of discussion there?
01:12Xi Jinping is in Europe in the midst of an ongoing investigation by the European Commission
01:17into excessive subsidies and to look into what the European Commission believes are
01:23unfair trade practices.
01:25And this is the context in which Xi is in France, in Belgrade and then in Budapest.
01:32And of course, this is also a reflection of where we are right now in EU-China relations.
01:37We've seen years of deterioration and this obviously was amplified in particular in light
01:43of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
01:47And so this context shapes and also tells us a lot about the tension that has been escalating.
01:56Has there been some form of consensus on relations with China within the EU?
02:01I believe that for the European side, it is important to kind of send the message to Beijing
02:08that it's time to rebalance this relationship, that the EU is not interested in cutting ties
02:13with China.
02:14I think it's clear that de-risking is the way forward.
02:17And this is also what President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen has put forward.
02:22And I think this has been embraced by member states overall.
02:25And this is something that I would describe as a convergence between member states.
02:31What I've seen so far is, in a way, a confirmation of how Xi Jinping likes to deal with the EU,
02:38which is on a bilateral basis, which is to go around the European Union, to go around
02:43institutions and to deal with member states.
02:46And through these relationships, it can make those member states feel special, make them
02:51feel like they have perhaps a privileged access to China.
02:57And so France is one of the key partners, in addition to Germany.
03:02So we all know that the French and the Germans have perhaps have had the most weight in dealing
03:08with China and in perhaps shaping the way forward.
03:12But the EU is 27 countries.
03:16So it's always going to be difficult, perhaps, within the EU to find unity.
03:22As you mentioned, France and Germany are key members of the EU.
03:27And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently went to China to meet with Xi Jinping.
03:32Those were quite muted talks in comparison to what we're seeing in the meetings in France,
03:37with very open discussions with Macron and Xi, open to the press, with Macron rolling
03:43out the red carpet for him.
03:46Is there a difference in tone between the way that Germany and France are approaching
03:50their relationship to China?
03:52Both Germany and France are interested in doubling down on trade with China.
03:58So I don't think either Scholz or Macron would like to weaken the relationship.
04:06But I think they're both interested in a China that plays by the rules.
04:10But at the same time, they're quite different.
04:12They're different personalities.
04:14So they have built up different relationships with Xi Jinping.
04:18So as you said, Macron's relationship is perhaps more friendly, but I don't think that really
04:22translates into how much Macron can do with China on trade issues.
04:28But Macron was quite outspoken in the visit.
04:32And in the meetings, Macron also invited the president of the commission, which helps
04:36to send more of a message that is a European message.
04:40So I think Macron has a more European approach to China if I compare that to the German approach.
04:48And I think there is quite a lot of disappointment, because we saw a German-China strategy that
04:55came out recently that was quite positive and quite outspoken.
05:00But I think at this stage, we see Macron using this opportunity to kind of outshine
05:07the German approach that's being criticized for just being interested in trade.
05:13And also, we do see that German companies, most of them, instead of actually reducing
05:19their investment in China, German investment has been growing.
05:24So there is this dilemma on how to perhaps navigate close trade ties, but also a changing
05:33China that has become a lot more risky.
05:36And doing business with China comes with great risks.
05:41So member states do agree on that.
05:44Xi Jinping is visiting Serbia and Hungary.
05:47He's also just visited France.
05:49Why coming off the back of the French trip, these two countries?
05:53Well, this is an important question, because Serbia is not an EU member state, but Serbia
05:57has been part of the 16, which then became 17 plus 1, cooperation framework between Central
06:04Eastern European countries plus Western Balkan countries and China.
06:09It's been a decade since this cooperation framework is out there, but it hasn't been
06:14very effective when it comes to what China promised to bring and to really establish
06:21connectivity in the region.
06:23Serbia is still obviously a very big supporter of Chinese investment in its own country,
06:29in the region.
06:31And perhaps this is also telling of why China wants to go personally to Serbia and to again
06:37send a message that this is a good example to show that China remains influential in
06:45the region.
06:46Not to mention that for Hungary, relations with China have been also an important leverage
06:54vis-a-vis Brussels to kind of send a message that it is up to Budapest to decide who Hungary's
07:00trade partners are.
07:02And so this is that agenda.
07:05But it's important for Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen the connectivity
07:10between Greece, the Piraeus port, which is 100% Chinese ownership, into Belgrade, into
07:18Serbia and to the rest of the Western European countries.
07:22So it's an opportunity, again, to divide Europe further in a way, also to project China not
07:29only in Europe as an influential partner.
07:32This is also an opportunity for Xi Jinping to project himself globally as a leader, a
07:38leader who is relevant and influential in the region.
07:43And if China wants to lead globally, which is what we've come to understand, if this
07:50is the case, China has some convincing to do.
07:54And that is in the developing world.
07:56And countries that are in need of infrastructure investment and see examples of positive cooperation,
08:05that's what they perceive to be positive.
08:10And on the topic of European security, how successful do you think France has been in
08:15pushing its message to China in using its influence in Russia's invasion in Ukraine?
08:22So I think Macron used the opportunity to raise the question and also to push China
08:28to play a more constructive role.
08:30They conveyed the same message together with the president of the Commission in their trilateral
08:34meeting and the press statement that the Commission president put out also starts
08:38with Russia on how this is important for Europe and how this is going to shape our relations
08:44going forward.
08:45So the big question is, how does China and Chinese companies deal with the dual use goods
08:51that Russia has been receiving thanks to China's support?
08:57So it's not only commercial goods that China has been exporting to Russia with a great
09:02increase in those exports, but it's really dual use goods that are not finished weaponry,
09:10but contribute to building drones, missiles, tanks.
09:14And these materials are crucial, existential for Russia.
09:19Now, I'm not very hopeful that we will see a change, to be honest, because I think it
09:24is in China's interest to see a divided Europe.
09:28It is in China's interest to see a Russia that is causing chaos and perhaps diverts
09:35Europe's attention from bigger issues.
09:39But I think China fails or perhaps Xi Jinping fails to understand that the more it pushes
09:46and the more support it gives to Russia, the more the perception in Europe is that doing
09:51business with China comes with great risks and China is undermining European interest.
09:58So we've also seen the US imposing more sanctions against Chinese companies that are supposedly
10:04supplying Russia with weapons parts or equipment for its war in Ukraine.
10:10In light of what you just said about more of consensus within the EU, are we likely
10:15to see similar sanctions be imposed by the EU sort of following the US?
10:22Well, I think the EU made it clear that if China continues to provide more support and
10:28if that support goes into the military support directly, not the dual use goods, then that
10:35is a red line.
10:37So I think China knows that and I think that is something that's obviously for the Europeans
10:43they need to be careful that their credibility is there.
10:46That indeed, if we see this ongoing, then I am hopeful.
10:51And I think knowing that this convergence in the EU has built up in two years and hasn't
10:58really faded.
10:59I mean, I'm not suggesting that everyone's on the same page.
11:02Perceptions diverge both on Russia and on China, but we are in a new reality, I think.
11:08And the outcome, whatever the outcome will be after this visit, I think we are not far
11:16away from where we were before the visit, which means that EU-China relations remain
11:20difficult, complex.
11:23There is a sense of urgency and really a determination to push back against China's assertiveness.
11:31And we see that clearly in the Commission's defensive toolbox.
11:36So what we're seeing right now is the Commission really using those tools.
11:41So the investigation into the EB and the green tech sector and into the subsidies, it's a
11:47very good example, an illustration of how there is a determination.
11:53And I think China does not like that.
11:55That's why the visit comes to France, which was one of the countries that pushed most
12:00for these investigations.
12:03And it is one of the countries that is most aligned with Brussels when it comes to how
12:10we push back against Chinese assertiveness.
12:14We're here in Taiwan where Xi Jinping's trip to Europe is being closely watched.
12:19What is the general perception of people here in Taiwan about EU-China relations?
12:26Well perceptions are important and self-perceptions are equally important.
12:30So the perception from Taiwan is that I think there's a good understanding that Europe is
12:35serious about rethinking its relationship with China.
12:39And I think Taiwan itself is going through this reflection about how to rethink its own
12:46trade relations and this over-reliance on China in trade, because that again comes with
12:50security risks.
12:52So there's a common interest between Europe and Taiwan, but we all know that our relationship
12:59from a European perspective with China is very different.
13:02And there's a different set of complexities that Taiwan has in its own relations with China.
13:08So at this stage we are still trying to understand as far as Europe and Taiwan are concerned
13:13in the context of this growing friendship and partnership of how can we both deal with
13:18China in a way that guarantees peace and security for both Europe and Taiwan, and in particular
13:26in China's own neighborhood, which is the Indo-Pacific.
13:29And Europe has embraced the Indo-Pacific concept and has put out its own strategy.
13:34And I think it is doing more to position itself strategically in the region and to work together
13:42with Taiwan.
13:43And I think clearly it is not to Beijing's liking, because the stronger EU-Taiwan relations
13:48are, the more it pushes in a way Beijing to react.
13:53And we've seen Beijing react in all sorts of ways, in particular through hybrid warfare.
13:59And that is of concern to Europe, to Taiwan's security.
14:02So I think we are developing stronger, closer cooperation.
14:07But again, this happens within the Indo-Pacific with other partners.
14:10So Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and obviously the US.
14:15Susa, thank you so much for joining us today.
14:17Thanks for having me.
14:19This has been Zoom In Zoom Out.
14:20For more stories from Taiwan Plus News, you can follow us on social media.
14:25Thank you for watching and we'll see you next time.