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00:00Now, we notice that oil prices were fluctuating in a horizontal movement from August last year until the beginning of this month.
00:07So, it was moving between levels of $94 and between levels of $84.5.
00:12So, we see that last week prices dropped from these levels, a 5% drop on levels of $84.5.
00:19This was a kind of negative indicator of prices.
00:22Of course, this regression resulted in the issuance of several economic data that indicated a kind of weakening of the economy and a slowdown of the economy.
00:30We know that oil is very sensitive to any change in the economic situation.
00:34So, if prices drop from levels of $84.5, we expect that prices will target levels of almost $80.
00:42Then, we will see how prices will deal with these levels.
00:45When do we expect a positive performance for oil prices?
00:48Only if prices succeed in getting back to levels of almost $84.5.
00:53We want to see if it will succeed in targeting the most important level of $94 or not.
00:57So, these are the most important levels that we want to monitor.
01:00The most important factors that will affect oil prices now are the OPEC meeting at the beginning of next month.
01:06We want to see if OPEC will extend the low production or will there be another talk?
01:10The most important factors that will affect oil prices now are the geopolitical tensions that we are seeing lately.
01:16We see that tensions are still rising.
01:19And, of course, regarding the Federal inflation regulations, these are the biggest engines that will determine the course of our prices.
01:26So, this week, we will have a lot of data, especially in the United States.
01:32We expect data to inflate the prices of producers and consumers.
01:36What do you think of these data?
01:38To what extent can they control the mood of the US and international markets?
01:42In addition, they may give signs of what the US Federal Reserve may go to in the coming meetings.
01:49We notice that the inflation rates over the past year have risen by almost 3% to 3.7%.
01:58So, it is expected that the inflation rates will return to 3.4%.
02:02On Wednesday, we saw an increase in inflation rates above 3.5%.
02:08This is expected to have a negative impact on the markets,
02:11considering that the US Federal Reserve may force the prices to remain high for a longer period of time than previously expected.
02:18But we have seen increases of more than 3.7% or 3.8%.
02:23This is expected to make the Federal Reserve talk about the possibility of raising the prices,
02:28because we see that inflation is rising from the beginning of the year until now.
02:32In the case of a decline in inflation rates,
02:34we see a decline below 3.1%,
02:40which is expected to give the Federal Reserve high interest rates for a longer period of time
02:45and is expected to be the first decrease in interest rates in the month of September and possibly in the month of July,
02:51especially since there are several economic indicators that indicate a kind of weakening of the US economy.
02:58So, with a decline in inflation rates below 3.1% or 3.0%,
03:02the Federal Reserve is in a hurry to reduce interest rates,
03:06which may have a negative impact on the US dollar
03:09and is expected to have a positive impact on the markets,
03:11which are gold, oil and US stocks.
03:13Speaking of gold, Sarah, in your estimate,
03:15the decline that has been relatively long,
03:18is it related to waiting and monitoring of these data,
03:22which is estimated to be about half a percentage point,
03:25or is it a case of continuous correction in general?
03:28Now, of course, gold prices are currently benefiting from several factors.
03:32The economic indicators issued last week and even at the beginning of this month,
03:36which indicated a weakening of the US economy,
03:40this gave a kind of positive impact on gold prices,
03:43given that the US Federal Reserve may be forced to lower interest rates early.
03:47On the other hand, we also saw at the end of last week
03:50that there was a kind of rise in geopolitical tensions in several countries around the world,
03:55which increased gold prices,
03:56but with the opening of the markets today,
03:58we are seeing slight declines,
04:00which is a kind of correctional movement
04:02for the rises in which prices were rising last week.
04:06Currently, as for gold prices,
04:07we see stability above the levels of about 2,350.
04:11Achieving stability above those levels
04:13is expected to reset the previous peak of about 2,380.
04:20If prices drop below 2,330,
04:24we expect that prices will try to target the levels of about 300
04:29and also the levels of 2,280,
04:31which are expected levels if prices drop below 2,350 and 2,300.
04:37We thank you, Sarah Al-Yassiri,
04:39and you are the analyst of financial markets at CFI for all these details.