"EGX30" يواصل الارتفاع رغم إعلان تحصيل ضريبة الأرباح الرأسمالية في مارس 2025
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00:00 We will go directly to Cairo, Mr. Wael Ainaba, deputy head of Tyco, the administration of the governorate and the investment bonds.
00:06 Welcome Mr. Wael and thank you for being here.
00:10 A different session today, we are witnessing.
00:13 Welcome and welcome back to the screen.
00:15 We may see today unexpected rises, especially after a strong attraction about the tax on the presidential profits.
00:24 The cabinet has decided and said that it will be in 2025.
00:29 But the process of calculating the interest of taxes for the necessary procedures and obtaining the tax in 2024 has begun.
00:39 Why did we not see the pressure today, unlike what we expected after these news?
00:44 First, this delay confirms what we say, we have been ten years in this tax.
00:53 It is impossible to apply this tax.
00:55 This law is from 2014 and we have not had a tax in 10 years.
01:01 In the last 10 years, we have solved three governments, three ministers, three finance ministers, three stockholders.
01:08 All of this in the last 10 years.
01:10 And every time a new story comes, they modify it.
01:14 And until now, they have not been able to get a tax.
01:17 This delay proves three very important things.
01:20 The market may understand it for this reason.
01:22 First, it is impossible to apply it, just as we have not seen a law to move the pyramid.
01:26 It is impossible to apply it.
01:28 We have not been able to implement it in 10 years, so it is impossible to apply it.
01:32 The second thing is that its harm is greater than its benefit.
01:35 This has been proven in the last 10 years, whenever the tax is mentioned, what happens in the market.
01:40 The third thing is the non-constitutionality of this tax.
01:43 We have been ten years in this tax, and every time a new finance minister comes,
01:48 a new vision comes, a new idea comes.
01:52 I think that this delay has made the market aware of the tax.
01:56 On the contrary, the cancellation of the tax in the last 10 years gave a benefit to the investors.
02:03 Because the market's peak in Egypt and the developments that took place in 2022 and 2023
02:08 were going to deserve a lot of taxes.
02:10 Now it has been cancelled.
02:11 As long as we are not able to apply it, we should think of an alternative that was already there.
02:16 The integration of the half-in-a-thousand deal, or something like that,
02:19 will bring a permanent and permanent will in the Ministry of Finance.
02:23 The last thing I want to talk about is that I am surprised by the gratitude of several unknown soldiers
02:30 who are making great efforts to cancel this tax.
02:34 In particular, Mr. Ahmed Abdelrahman, the President of the Bursa,
02:37 and Dr. Ghada Ali, a member of the Parliament.
02:41 There are very, very great efforts to cancel this tax.
02:44 I hope that by the end of the year we will see a positive result.
02:47 So far, the desire to cancel the tax has been fulfilled, Mr. Zua'il.
02:52 Even now, the investor may not have enough understanding of how the capital gains tax will be applied to his profits.
02:59 A very nice question.
03:02 Yesterday, some reasonable voices on social media began to explain to the investor what will happen.
03:08 Therefore, today's reaction was not as negative as it was every time.
03:11 First, if I, as an investor, made 100 pounds of profit from January to December,
03:16 I made 100 pounds of profit, the first thing that will be divided is the cost of the alternative opportunity,
03:21 which is currently 30% interest rate or 25% interest rate.
03:25 This will be divided from the deposit.
03:27 So, this is the first thing, the cost of the alternative opportunity.
03:30 The second thing is the cost of the margin and the cost of the purchase and sale operations.
03:34 The rest will be paid 10%.
03:36 If I make 100 pounds of profit, I will pay 4 or 5 pounds of interest rate.
03:41 This is not a low number.
03:43 That is why the market was understanding this issue today.
03:46 Today, on the contrary, the market rose 800 points every time,
03:51 although yesterday it was rising very much.
03:53 We see the movement of some investors.
03:56 Some people are still wondering about the look of Mustafa,
03:59 who may have started by buying the 10 million decision.
04:02 Today, we only bought about 60 million through the open market.
04:06 Will we see other companies, Mr. Zouail, in this phase,
04:10 also resort to buying and keeping the sum as a treasury sum, other than Mustafa?
04:15 I expect that we will see other companies in the coming weeks,
04:21 because the sharp decline in the market, we fell 10,000 points per month.
04:26 We lost half a trillion pounds of market value.
04:29 The prices have fallen sharply,
04:32 because Mustafa's message in the book of stocks said,
04:35 "It is a great investment opportunity."
04:37 Indeed, all the stocks have fallen significantly.
04:39 The companies that have a surplus will offer a new treasury sum.
04:43 I expect this in the coming weeks.
04:46 But here we want to talk about the rules of implementing the treasury sum.
04:50 The rules must be revised again, and a third and a fourth.
04:53 A company cannot say, "I will buy up to 10 million shares and not buy them,"
04:59 in a specific period.
05:01 Last year, the investment company Orascom said,
05:04 "I will buy 500 million shares from October to October, and not buy anything but 60 million."
05:10 So there must be a binding decision for the company.
05:12 The number you say, implement it.
05:14 We do not do like the rivals in the stores,
05:17 "Up to 10 million, we can buy 200,000 and it will be quiet."
05:21 No, there must be a clear decision in the rules of the treasury sum implementation
05:26 that the number mentioned in the investment company's message
05:30 must be implemented in practice.
05:32 Because it happened twice.
05:34 Now we saw that Orascom asked for 500 million shares from October to October,
05:37 and Mustafa said, "I will not buy anything but 40 million,
05:40 even though I expected it to be completed by the end of the period."
05:43 So this rise we are seeing in the shares that happened in the second session in May,
05:48 can continue, Mr. Zouail, but I will go back and mention the rule
05:52 that is stuck in the minds of all investors,
05:55 that in May, sell and get away from the,
05:58 and return in October, according to their words,
06:01 start the investment process.
06:03 Does this apply to the Egyptian market now?
06:05 Of course, every market has its own rules, its own special cases,
06:12 and its own circumstances every month, not every year.
06:15 So we can change the rule this year and leave it "buy in May and still"
06:21 not "get away".
06:23 So we have in May, two very important news to happen.
06:27 The first thing is the round-trip review of Morgan Stanley in 2015-2015.
06:31 It was the one that linked the Egyptian indexes last year,
06:34 because the problem is important, which is the exchange rate.
06:37 We had two prices very far apart, 30 pounds and 70 pounds.
06:40 So the Egyptian indexes were linked.
06:42 Today, the exchange rate is unified, it is 48-47 in this region.
06:46 So I think in the next review, Thursday, the next Wednesday,
06:50 on May 15, the Egyptian indexes will return to Morgan Stanley's index,
06:54 and therefore, foreign currency will start to grow.
06:57 The second thing is the central bank meeting to look for the interest rate.
07:01 I expect that the interest rate will be fixed, and I expect it will be lowered as well.
07:06 Why? First, we have raised it to 8% now,
07:09 2% in the first year and 6% in the last one,
07:12 8% in one time, this is a very big number.
07:15 The currency exchange rate in Egypt is not based on interest rate,
07:18 it is based on dollar.
07:20 We started to have dollar gains,
07:22 the foreign currency is no longer valid in the banks,
07:26 most of its needs and dependencies have been met,
07:29 so we started to have a dollar loss,
07:31 and therefore, the needs will increase and increase in the next month.
07:34 So I say that it is possible that in May, there will be a reduction in interest rate,
07:38 with our return to Morgan Stanley's index, and this will be positive for the market.
07:41 Quickly, the capital administration, Mr. Zouail,
07:43 will the market understand this amount of the offer in your opinion, and in short?
07:48 In short, this is a direct benefit,
07:52 it is necessary to clearly cancel the taxes, so that the market will be more active,
07:56 because the market has weakened after the tax issue was raised.
07:59 The capital administration's offer may exceed several billion pounds,
08:03 it must be restricted to another exchange other than the Egyptian exchange,
08:06 such as London or Dubai, with a good promotion,
08:09 and with a guarantee for the market itself,
08:12 that I cancel these taxes, and therefore, I will activate the market.
08:15 Yes.
08:16 We thank you, Mr. Zouail Ainaba,
08:18 Deputy President of Tycoon,
08:20 for the management of the reserves and bonds.
08:22 You were with us from Cairo.
08:24 Thank you very much.