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00:00 is a little bit of caution that is in evidence in risk assets not just here in India but
00:06 across the world where you are seeing a patchwork of performance in both the US markets which
00:12 were mixed as well as the Asia Pacific region. But let us take a look at some of the key
00:17 indices to watch today. The auto index is looking strong. It is up as much as 1 percent
00:22 or thereabouts in trade today and one of the top performers. But the metal index is also
00:27 doing reasonably well up about 1.2 percent or thereabouts. Energy is in focus because
00:32 crude oil prices have declined quite sharply in the last couple of sessions. As of this
00:39 morning you had Brent crude which was trading at 83.5 dollars to the barrel and in fact
00:45 it has lost quite a bit of ground over the last couple of days. You have oil and gas
00:50 which is up about 8 tenths of a percent. Among the losers you have Realty as a pack that
00:55 is not doing too well in trade today. It is down about 1.5 percent or thereabouts and
00:59 the Nifty Bank which saw quite a precipitous fall at the end of the session on Wednesday
01:06 is continuing to lose ground but it is off the low point of the day still down about
01:10 a third of a percent. Let us focus on auto then and you have seen quite a few updates
01:15 over the course of yesterday and today on the auto sales numbers for the month of April.
01:20 And there is a pretty clear picture that is emerging in terms of which segments are doing
01:25 better than the others. To tell you more about the update we have got Puneet joining in.
01:31 Puneet what can you tell us? Hi Alex. So as you rightly said there is a clear theme which
01:37 would be that rural has done slightly better this time compared to the whole of previous
01:42 year where the trend of rural has been on the downward. So when you look at companies
01:46 across segments of two wheelers and commercial vehicles they have delivered strong performance
01:51 with Hero Motor Corp in the two wheeler space up 35 percent. The sales is up 35 percent
01:56 on a year on year basis compared to the previous year while TVS Motors has also performed well
02:02 growing at roughly 25 percent. Both these counters have blown past analysts expectations
02:06 as we can see on the screen where the sales were guided for by the analysts on a much
02:12 lower basis. Now for Hero specifically the 125cc segment has done really well with the
02:17 extreme while for TVS Motors they have products range across the 100 to 125cc as well as the
02:23 EV scooter has done well despite the lower despite the lower subsidies given by the government
02:30 in the new EMP scheme. For Bajaj Auto as well there is a 17 percent growth while Ayesha
02:35 has grown roughly 12 percent compared to the previous year. Commercial vehicles though
02:39 are showing the real growth up 31 percent for Tata Motors the market leader here. Two
02:45 wheelers specifically the passenger carrier as well as the intercity transport vehicles
02:50 the ILCV is what they call it. Both these segments have grown more than 100 percent.
02:55 What this would indicate is that the people who generally have the passenger carriers
03:00 who would generally transport people from point A to point B. This segment has grown
03:05 100 percent showing that this segment is coming back. FI24 was very weak for these particular
03:09 segments and is the key for both these companies. While VE CV and here is a divergent trend
03:15 the only CV maker showing a degrowth of more than 18 percent while their MHCV sales have
03:21 fallen roughly 24 percent. A little more you know commentary in the earnings call will
03:26 be key. While finally the passenger vehicles not so much growth and for Maruti specifically
03:33 it does well when Rural does well but here in this is a key update that they've launched
03:37 the new Swift which will be going the bookings for which have started from the 1st of May
03:42 and they have pulled back some of the older stock in the compact mid segment where the
03:46 Swift operates. So that's why lower sales for it. Mahindra and Mahindra has continued
03:51 a strong SUV focus. So do know that they operate the Balero SUV in the rural space as well.
03:57 So overall just to sum it up the rural theme has worked well for all companies. Going forward
04:02 we'll see more commentary by the managements in the earnings conference call. But right
04:06 now stocks doing really well for the rural players. Back to you.
04:09 All right. Thank you Puneet for that. Good morning viewers. Now on that note let me introduce
04:15 you to one of the guests. We have Osho Krishan of Angel One joining in. We'll also shortly
04:19 be joined by Samih Dharal of Natwarlal and Sons. But circling back to Nifty Bank we'll
04:25 definitely talk about auto in just a minute. Osho I want to focus specifically on the Nifty
04:32 Bank index today as Alex has already spoken about what happened in the previous session
04:37 and today as well it's a bit of a chop and churn in the index itself. A lot of volatility.
04:42 You look at the high points you look at the low points of the day. How are you viewing
04:45 this on the charts Nifty Bank? Very good morning to both of you and all the
04:52 viewers. Firstly thank you for having me at your show. Now coming back to the query on
04:56 Bank Nifty. Yes Bank Nifty has seen a very strong traction in the last two trading sessions.
05:01 But as we can see that the last session was the expiry for Bank Nifty. So it has seen
05:06 strong long unwinding but overall the structure remains very buoyant in Bank Nifty. So I'm
05:11 expecting that on the downside 49,000 to 48,900 on the spot level should be acting as a very
05:16 strong support zone. While on the higher end the resistance is very nearby. Approximately
05:21 the close of last second last session for Bank Nifty which was approximately 49,430
05:28 odd levels. That is a very crucial level to watch for the time. It surpasses that on a
05:34 decisive manner and sustains above there. Then we can witness a strong rally in Bank
05:38 Nifty. On the higher end I am expecting approximately 49,700 to 48,800 to be seen as immediate target
05:45 followed by the mark of 50,000. We're still waiting for Sameer. All right.
05:51 Sameer has just joined in. Sameer thanks so much for taking the time. We were talking
05:56 about auto sales and the ones that have come through. A quick view on how you view the
06:00 numbers and which stock do you like? Sorry for the late arrival. But yeah, you
06:07 were asking about the auto numbers. So I actually haven't been able to go through a lot of them.
06:11 What I do know about is the Bajaj auto numbers which came in quite decent. But the rest of
06:17 them I still haven't looked at. So I don't have an answer for you at this point.
06:20 Fair enough. But given what you know so far, what stock according to you from the OEM pack
06:25 do you like the most? So actually if you ask me from the OEM pack,
06:29 a lot of them have already run up quite a bit and their valuations have moved up. And
06:34 I think a lot of the stocks are fairly valued at that. So the opportunity actually if you
06:39 ask me lies in companies that are outside the existing OEMs in the sense of the traditional
06:44 ICE engines, but someone who's focusing more on the electric vehicle and the opportunity
06:49 for growth. So one of the companies that we do track in that space and we like is a company
06:53 called Reeves Cotton. We've mentioned this on your channel before as well. And I'd like
06:57 to say that we have a holding and we've recommended it to all our clients. So they're making the
07:04 electric two wheelers and three wheelers. They're increasing their product profile.
07:10 You know where they've taken a bit of a hit in the recent past was that you get these
07:15 certain benefits which the government said they were not allowed to take because of certain
07:20 amount of parts that were being imported. Now they've repaid all of the benefits that
07:25 they received in the past and to the point have also reapplied for this same license.
07:31 And once that comes through, we get a feeling that they would become more competitive when
07:34 it sells. Not said that they're not already. They're already selling bikes without being
07:38 able to get those same benefits and being competitive in the market. So that is one
07:43 of the stocks that we do like. But like I said, in the traditional OEM spaces, I think
07:47 the one stock that maybe valuation comfort to some extent is there is Hero Motocorp that
07:54 has run up Bajaj Auto Post. Its buyback has moved up quite significantly. I think Tata
07:59 Motors, Maruti all have moved up. Maruti of course has. The fact that numbers have been
08:05 quite good so far. So I mean, that's but like I said, I wouldn't be looking to invest in
08:09 them at this point of time, maybe on corrections. Yes, but Greece, Scotland and Nehru are who
08:14 I would have. All right. Got it. Let's quickly jump into the queries now. Now, let me remind
08:20 you first that you can write to us on any of our social media channels or on the WhatsApp
08:24 number that's on your screen. You can also write to us from the YouTube live chat and
08:27 we'll take your queries from there. Let's start off with the queries. The first one
08:30 is on Divi's Labs. This one's from Rajesh Maheshwari. He's writing in from Singapore.
08:36 He says he bought the shares at a price of Rs. 4,465, slightly elevated prices there.
08:43 Now, his question is, does it make sense? And the stock seems to be, isn't doing too
08:49 well in the last couple of months as well. Osho, I'm going to come to you on this one.
08:54 Does it make sense to hold on to the stock? Do you see upside?
08:57 See, overall in Divi's Lab, yes, as you have mentioned, in the broader perspective, the
09:03 counter might not have given that much of return. But in the short-term perspective,
09:07 the counter has seen a very strong traction and it has resurged from the 200-day SMA.
09:11 So that is a very positive development on the technical front. But again, on the higher
09:16 levels, approximately 4000 and 4050 odd levels is a very crucial resistance. Until it surpasses
09:23 this level on a sustainable basis, there can be some kind of consolidation or some kind
09:28 of profit booking that can happen in this counter for the short term. But the time it
09:33 surpasses the zone of 4050 on a closing basis, then from here onwards, one can expect a decent
09:39 rally of approximately 300 to 400 odd points.
09:42 Okay, fair point. We've got the next question that is from Neeraj and he is asking about
09:48 Tarsen's products. Samir, do you have coverage on this one? He is looking for a long-term
09:53 view on this and I suppose he is asking whether he should get in at this level.
09:59 You said Tarsen's, right?
10:00 That's right.
10:01 No, we don't have coverage on that one.
10:03 Okay, then do you have a view on whether AB Capital is better than Aditya Birla Sunlife
10:10 AMC?
10:11 So, they are very different businesses, right? So, if you own AB Capital, you also own Aditya
10:16 Birla Sunlife AMC. So, AB Capital, first of all, is a business that is into lending. They
10:22 have lending operations, which is the key focus. They are growing their loan book quite
10:26 well. After the new management has come in, we've seen a massive pre-rating. You've seen
10:30 NPAs coming lower, you've seen the provisions coming off, you've seen profitability going
10:34 up, so on all factors, it's good. Then you also get the insurance business along with
10:40 the health insurance, which is, of course, right now still in the early growth stages
10:45 and avoiding some losses and the life insurance business is just quite profitable.
10:49 So, if you were to ask me which one of the two I would buy, I would prefer AB Capital
10:53 because at the end of the day, I believe the lending business is something that will continue
10:57 to grow, the life insurance business will grow and I get to play the AMC business separately
11:03 or I mean through the AB Capital kind of investment. So, I would recommend AB Capital over AB Sunlife
11:10 at this point of time. Alright. The next counter we're talking about
11:13 is SBL Life. This one is from Mr. G. C. Prakash. He is also writing to us on YouTube. They
11:20 say they bought the counter at a price of Rs. 880. So, a considerable profit there,
11:25 Roshan. This is from a shorter-term perspective, from one to three months now. The stock hasn't
11:30 done too much in the last one year itself. Would you suggest holding on for maybe three
11:35 more months? See, overall, this counter has seen a very
11:38 good traction in last five to six trading months. Overall, it is in the cycle of higher
11:43 highs, higher lows and recently is trying to get a settlement or get a support kind
11:48 of a consolidation near the 200-day SMA, which historically has seen a very strong support
11:54 zone for this counter. From here onwards, there can be a decent and gradual up move
11:58 that can be seen in SBI Life. On the higher front, I am expecting again, once it surpasses
12:04 the zone of 1500-1520 odd levels, then this counter has the ability to again re-enter
12:09 into the uncharted territory. So, even for short-term perspective, one should definitely
12:14 hold this counter, if advisable to keep a stop loss near about 1300-1800 on the spot
12:22 price for a higher target of nearly 1520 for very short term. And after that, we can even
12:28 witness a very strong upsurge in this counter. All right. That's the view on SBI Life. The
12:33 next one is on IRFC, which Arun Kumar from Ghaziabad in UP has bought at levels of 71.6.
12:40 He is asking whether to book profits at this juncture. Osho, on the charts, how does it
12:45 look? It's currently trading way above the buy price. In fact, it's been a doubler for
12:49 this particular viewer. Should money be taken off the table right now?
12:55 See, IRFC is a counter that if you don't require the money invested in IRFC, then stay invested
13:01 in this counter. Overall, this counter has seen a very strong traction, as you have mentioned.
13:05 And after that traction, the counter is into a time-wise correction phase, which should
13:09 be considered healthy from a longer term duration. So, from here onwards, I am having a very
13:14 bullish view and expecting that in a short run, it should again retest the zone of 180-185
13:20 and on the lower end, 135-140 is a very strong support zone for IRFC. So, if money is not
13:26 required, I will advise to stay invested in this counter.
13:29 All right. Next counter we're talking about is Tata Steel. This one's from Anush Patel.
13:36 No, sorry. This one's from Sohail. And they bought the shares at a price of 1000 shares
13:44 at a price of Rs. 162. So, slightly below where it's currently trading at. From a longer
13:50 term perspective, Sameer, would you suggest holding on to Tata Steel?
13:56 So given the fact that metal counters are doing well right now and everyone's expecting
13:59 metal prices to remain firm, because China seems to be seeing some moderate sign of recovery,
14:05 you know, they're talking of the fact that the Chinese government will come and give
14:10 some support for the real estate sector, which has been struggling there. And steel actually
14:15 has a big consumption there as well. Apart from that, the auto ancillaries and all of
14:19 that space is doing quite well. So, the demand for the metal is going to remain robust. As
14:24 long as the cycle continues to remain up, I think one can stay invested. However, one
14:29 thing with metal counters is, you know, there's a massive amount of volatility and there can
14:33 be very fast changes in how the prices come down. So, if one wants to stay invested and
14:39 enjoy the bull run in the metal counter right now, stay invested but keep a stop loss. And
14:45 keep the stop loss rising as the stock keeps rising because of these metal prices. But
14:49 keep it 5% below what the current prices are at that point. And if you see a 5% fall, take
14:55 your money and get out of the stock, given the fact that the volatility can be quite
14:59 fine.
15:00 Absolutely. That's the case, I guess, with metal. When the underlying, you don't know
15:04 where it's going, right? Sameer, thanks so much for that view. We have to take a very
15:07 quick break. On the other side, we'll take more of your questions. So, do stay tuned.
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