كيف تنظر إلى الاستثمار في الذهب ضمن محفظتك الاستثمارية؟
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00:35, Gautam Shah, [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]
01:04 Goldilocks Premium Research.
01:07 Gautam, thank you for joining us on this show today.
01:10 Thank you for having me, Hossein.
01:11 It's a pleasure, Gautam.
01:12 Let us start with a poll that we did for CNBC Arabia audience.
01:18 And we asked the audience, how do you
01:21 view investing in gold as a part of your investment portfolio?
01:25 And these were the answers.
01:28 And as we can see, almost 48%, 48.7%, which is almost half,
01:34 the answers came.
01:35 It is a fundamental investment for protection
01:38 against inflation and other risks.
01:41 12.2%, it is a secondary financial asset
01:45 for diversification.
01:48 Almost 27% answered that not preferred
01:52 due to the lack of regular returns on this asset.
01:56 And another 12.2%, it is of low importance
01:59 with the growth of digital assets.
02:02 How do you see this changing views, especially
02:06 with the new digital assets coming in?
02:09 Only 50% or less than 50% see it as an essential one
02:13 to protect against risks of inflation and other risks.
02:17 Well, I think the good thing is that the people are divided.
02:20 So different people have different ways
02:21 of thinking about gold and investing about gold.
02:24 But clearly, there has been a heads up.
02:26 Because if you look at the first two segments,
02:29 60% of people are the ones who are
02:31 looking at gold as a hedge and for diversification, which
02:35 is exactly what it should be.
02:37 I mean, if you did the same poll maybe three or four years back,
02:40 the numbers would have been much lower.
02:42 But given the geopolitical scenarios
02:44 that we've witnessed over the last three years,
02:46 I think a lot of people feel that you cannot put
02:49 all your eggs in the same basket.
02:51 And therefore, people want to diversify.
02:53 Talking about the 27% of the people
02:55 who feel that there is no regular return,
02:58 I think people are spoiled from the equity markets.
03:00 Because markets have had such a great run up
03:02 in the last two, three years, you
03:04 want to expect return every single month.
03:06 It's good that you mentioned this part.
03:08 Because this will take me to this chart
03:11 and showing us the annualized performance
03:13 of different asset classes.
03:16 And as we can see, over the last 10 years--
03:19 I took this chart two days ago for the past 10 years--
03:22 and the S&P 500 showing us it is having a growth of 13%
03:29 annualized if we reinvested the dividends.
03:32 And MSCI global 10.1%.
03:36 US treasuries-- and as we know, it
03:38 was a harsh year last year for treasuries.
03:42 If you invested in US treasuries, T-bonds for 10
03:45 years, you only had a performance annualized for 1.3%.
03:50 Meanwhile, gold performance of 5% annualized.
03:55 So to your point, if you look at the equity market,
03:58 its performance was much better compared to gold,
04:02 despite it being at a record high.
04:05 Don't you think that gold isn't providing sufficient returns
04:11 to attract more investors?
04:13 I don't think so.
04:14 I think you can't look at it from a 10-year perspective,
04:17 because you have data of the last 50 years.
04:19 And if you really go by the data of the last 50 years,
04:21 8% to 10% is a fair assessment of the kind of returns
04:25 gold has delivered in this period.
04:27 And in challenging times, this return
04:28 has moved to about 12% to 15%.
04:31 Let's not forget the last four years
04:33 was all about a rally which was after COVID.
04:37 And the gold-triggered rally happened only after March 2020,
04:42 when from a level of $1,400, gold went to about $2,000.
04:46 And then for three years, it did absolutely nothing.
04:48 And equity markets did very well.
04:50 But I think now you've come to an environment
04:52 where gold has broken out of this five-year range.
04:54 And if you look at the long-term averages,
04:56 the chances of a reversal to the mean is pretty high.
05:00 So the last 10 years might have given you a 5%,
05:03 but this 5% can easily move towards double digits,
05:06 looking at the next two to three years,
05:08 given the diversification angle, given the geopolitics,
05:12 and the fact that the trend is in play.
05:14 Gold and S&P 500 returns in the last few months
05:17 have been pretty much hand-in-hand.
05:19 What have been interesting, Gautam, as well,
05:21 over the past few months--
05:22 I'm talking about like seven, eight months--
05:25 you had high interest rates, stronger dollar.
05:29 And investors-- we saw lots of outflows from ETFs,
05:34 not inflows into gold ETFs.
05:36 But if you look at who were the buyers of gold,
05:41 they were central banks.
05:42 If you look at this very, very interesting chart that
05:45 shows us international gold reserves, since 2010,
05:52 we started seeing accumulation of reserves.
05:57 The amount went up from around 27,000 tons up
06:01 to 33,000 tons, which means we were back to the period
06:08 where the Bretton Woods system collapsed.
06:13 What do you think behind the move of central banks
06:15 moving to gold reserves this aggressively
06:19 over the past few years?
06:22 Well, it's a tough call because the central bank
06:24 has a mind of its own.
06:25 So it's very difficult to judge as to what could their plan be.
06:29 But given what has happened in the last three, three
06:31 and a half years, I just feel that the central banks are
06:33 better placed into committing into gold, which
06:36 has been far less volatile than many other asset classes.
06:40 So I think that could probably be the only explanation as
06:42 to why central banks have moved towards gold.
06:45 I don't seem to think of any other fundamental aspect,
06:48 or I'm not equipped enough to answer that
06:50 from a very deep fundamental understanding.
06:53 I just feel that the low volatility and the fact
06:56 that it's trading at lifetime highs
06:58 has attracted a lot more attention towards gold.
07:01 OK, fantastic.
07:03 Gautam, let me ask you now.
07:05 In the different inflation scenarios,
07:07 we see different performance for gold.
07:11 And this is what we've seen over the past 50 years,
07:13 from the '70s up to early 2020, when inflation was higher
07:18 than 5%, gold outperformed most of the asset classes
07:23 up by like 15%, even when inflation is very low.
07:27 And I think when we also have negative real interest rates,
07:33 this is also when gold outperformed.
07:36 So this is very interesting.
07:38 But if we look at what Warren Buffett says about gold,
07:42 he says that gold is a way of going long on fear.
07:47 And it doesn't do anything but sit there and look at you.
07:51 Of course, Warren Buffett is one of the most famous investors
07:55 that have ever lived.
07:58 He still sees gold as not the right thing to purchase.
08:03 What do you think about this kind of mindset?
08:07 Well, when Warren Buffett speaks,
08:08 obviously you take note of it.
08:09 And you don't argue or debate what he said.
08:12 But I think it's been a very fearful world in the last three
08:14 and a half years.
08:16 I think after COVID hit us and all
08:17 the geopolitical developments of the last couple of years,
08:20 I think people have realized that you wake up in the morning
08:23 and you have some news flow to deal with,
08:25 gold is the go-to asset class.
08:27 And I think because the allocation for most market
08:29 participants around the world has been very small for gold,
08:33 it's only getting better and better.
08:35 I think Warren Buffett has been talking
08:36 about committing into silver because there
08:39 is a lot of industrial use to it.
08:40 I think it's been on paper.
08:43 And he's more of a value investor
08:45 who looks at things more long term.
08:47 Gold might not be of great value.
08:49 But I think people have started to realize
08:51 that diversification, trend, and hedge
08:54 are all three aspects which gold gives you.
08:57 I mean, you have equity markets which
08:59 have seen large knee-jerk reactions from time to time.
09:02 But such knee-jerk reactions you haven't seen in gold and silver.
09:05 In fact, if you compare gold and silver,
09:07 gold has done far better than silver,
09:09 despite all the positives that silver brings on the table.
09:13 And now as we speak, we are at levels of 20 to 100 and beyond.
09:16 Exactly.
09:17 But even-- I mean, this is Warren Buffett.
09:19 This is one of you.
09:20 We have even other big investors like Grey Value, who
09:24 says if you don't own gold, so you don't know history
09:28 and you don't know anything about economics.
09:31 And he is also one of the biggest investors.
09:36 But many, many people come to me and ask me,
09:40 saying how shall we invest gold?
09:41 Shall we buy physical gold?
09:43 Shall we buy ETF?
09:44 Shall we buy mining stocks?
09:47 What do you recommend to your clients?
09:49 I think ETF investing is really the way forward for gold.
09:53 Because there was a time a decade back, at least in India,
09:56 where you had to buy physical gold to play gold.
09:58 But now you have ETF investing.
10:00 So you could mirror the prices of gold almost on a daily basis.
10:04 And I think that's really the way forward,
10:05 because you have easy access, you have liquidity,
10:08 and you are having a proxy to the gold prices
10:11 almost on a daily basis.
10:13 A lot of people like to take a little more risk
10:15 and move to gold mining stocks.
10:16 But if you look at the last three or four years,
10:18 the gold mining stocks have not moved hand in hand
10:21 with gold prices.
10:22 And they have their own corporate internal risks.
10:25 So I think for a passive investor who's
10:27 looking at more three to five years,
10:29 ETF gold investing is probably the way forward.
10:31 It's picking up a lot of action in the last couple of years.
10:34 And given the kind of world that we live in,
10:36 it's only going to get better and better.
10:39 Awesome.
10:40 Gautam, I always used to recommend clients
10:43 when I used to be in the asset management field and portfolio
10:46 management that consider gold not as the heavyweight asset
10:52 class in the portfolio.
10:54 For me, it was rather a policy, an insurance policy,
10:58 to protect your portfolios from the ups and downs,
11:02 especially when you have bad times, COVID,
11:08 global financial crisis, very high inflation.
11:12 But I consider it as a policy.
11:14 This is the advice I used to give clients.
11:17 Consider it as an insurance policy.
11:20 What is your advice?
11:22 I think your advice is my advice,
11:24 because what was relevant a decade back
11:27 is relevant even today.
11:28 I think more and more people believe
11:30 that they need a hedge to their portfolios,
11:32 given the kind of uncertainties that the world is facing right
11:35 now.
11:36 I mean, nothing is out of the textbooks.
11:38 Nothing is out of the box.
11:39 And you just have to ride this market in a very different way.
11:44 So yes, allocation of as high as 10% to 15% of the portfolio,
11:48 I think, is going to be the way forward for a lot of people.
11:52 It's OK to forego some equity market returns of beta
11:56 and go for gold, because traditionally, people
11:58 have had 5% to 7% allocation.
12:00 But going forward, I think this is going to gradually become
12:03 more 10% to 15%.
12:05 10% to 15%.
12:06 This is the percentage that you recommend in a portfolio.
12:09 Gautam Shah, I'm [INAUDIBLE] Goldilocks Premium Research.
12:15 Thank you very much for joining us on this show.
12:17 Thank you.
12:18 Pleasure being here.
12:19 It's a great pleasure.
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