Two Intriguing Paths to the Sweet 16: Analysis and Predictions
Transcript
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00:03 Now if you're looking for the sweet 16, you're not cashing your ticket here, Ben,
00:07 when you win in the round of 64.
00:08 You gotta win in the round of 32, excuse me, 32 as well.
00:11 So you're taking a look in your lineup here.
00:13 I'm already out on Kansas.
00:15 I said this before.
00:16 I don't care if their full lineup was intact here.
00:18 I think they're ready for an upset possibly in game number one, but
00:22 more importantly in game number two.
00:24 If Gonzaga does end up beating McNeese, which I think they will,
00:27 I don't care who lines up, Sanford or Kansas.
00:30 I like Gonzaga to win that game anyway.
00:32 Plus 116 price, a little bit of plus money in your pocket.
00:35 I think Gonzaga gets it.
00:36 Also, the pressure that Gonzaga used to have in the past,
00:40 coming out of the WCC, is not there anymore.
00:42 It's almost like, hey guys, we're here to actually disrupt this tournament,
00:45 not for people to say we didn't belong in this tournament.
00:48 Give me Gonzaga heading to the sweet 16 at a plus 116 price.
00:53 >> So DRS, it's a really good point as well.
00:55 We'll talk about the 12-5 upsets, this trendy upset alert picks that people
01:00 will have in the round of 64, and rightfully so, since the field expanded in 1985.
01:06 We have seen a 12 beat a 5 in 35% of said matchups.
01:11 And I wanted to bet McNeese, and I still might.
01:15 I still might have them in my bracket, a 30 win team under Will Wade.
01:19 The Cowboys play really good defense.
01:21 They're a very balanced team.
01:23 But now it's starting to become a little bit too trendy that McNeese is just going
01:27 to knock off the Zags outright.
01:29 A team that was 11 and 5 through the middle of January, and
01:33 then finished off the year winning 14 of their final 16 games.
01:39 Gonzaga's a really good basketball team.
01:41 And yes, there are the criticisms, and rightfully so, of Mark Few.
01:45 But Gonzaga's made the NCAA tournament 25 consecutive seasons.
01:50 Gonzaga has made at least the sweet 16 in the last eight big dances.
01:55 Sure, they've ultimately come up short from winning a national title.
01:58 They've been to two title games.
01:59 They've only been to two Final Fours in this eight year run where they have at
02:03 least seen the second weekend.
02:04 But they've at least seen the second weekend, and
02:07 there's a plus money price for Gonzaga to do so right now.
02:10 Plus 116 is the five seed in the Midwest.
02:14 I'm going to the sixth seed in the East region.
02:17 That would be BYU at plus 142.
02:21 I almost wanted to take Drake at a plus 570 number because I think the Bulldogs
02:25 might be able to cause some chaos against their in-state rivals,
02:29 Iowa State, in the round of 32.
02:31 But I digress.
02:33 I look at BYU, Donnie, because I think they are an underseeded six seed.
02:37 As the committee told us, based on the religious affiliation of Brigham Young
02:41 University, they are not allowed to play on Sundays, and thus logistically
02:46 had to be slotted onto the sixth line to play in the round of 64.
02:52 So they get Duquesne, who is a higher seeded 11 seed than they deserve,
02:57 overseeded perhaps, they're a nine and a half point favorite.
03:00 I think BYU handles Duquesne in that matchup against the Dukes.
03:04 And then ultimately would play more than likely Illinois,
03:08 the Illini in 11 and a half point favorite as I shared against Morehead State.
03:13 BYU is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country.
03:15 At least they take the second most three pointers in comparison
03:19 to their field goal attempts in the country in college basketball.
03:24 And with a pace against Illinois, I think the Cougars will be able to match
03:28 plus 142 for Mark Pope's team to make a run into the sweet 16.
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