Benzinga's PreMarket Prep is the #1 go-to source for everything you need to know before the market opens! Join our expert hosts as they break down the latest market trends, analyze key indicators, and provide actionable insights to help you navigate the trading day ahead.
Today's Guest:
Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer - T3 Live
**Get Scott's Super Simple Gap Trading eBook; the FREE guide to catching big stock moves.
https://learn.t3live.com/scott-redler-gap-trading-ebook/?cookieUUID=13fd0d8d-9943-4ee3-92e0-af1ba6ee1f97
Today's Guest:
Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer - T3 Live
**Get Scott's Super Simple Gap Trading eBook; the FREE guide to catching big stock moves.
https://learn.t3live.com/scott-redler-gap-trading-ebook/?cookieUUID=13fd0d8d-9943-4ee3-92e0-af1ba6ee1f97
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Alright Scott Redler from t3 trading Scott. How you doing today?
00:03 I'm doing all right. How you doing? All right. Well, we had CPI this morning. Of course biggest biggest headline this morning
00:11 Did you watch the the move? What are you what are your thoughts? I?
00:13 Think it's a little bit of a head scratcher
00:16 I don't know like I was on with you know, a bunch of the per you know
00:19 Individuals from the alpha team and you know, I'm pretty risked down after Friday
00:24 And I wasn't sure to expect in it. I guess the face value it seemed a little hot
00:29 But then some were talking about like the hourly wages were a little lighter. I just think there's a lot of hedging heading into it
00:35 There's a lot of sloppy trading right now. So, you know, it's 842. I'm not the dust out a little bit
00:40 You know if you put put a chart up at the spies up, you know, we're kind of in the middle of the range, right?
00:46 So it's really not that compelling. We had the high of what 518 on Friday the low 508 yesterday
00:52 We're above yesterday's high of 512 ish. It's 514 ish. I'm gonna just let the dust settle
00:58 You know as a Friday I was on the highs of my you know, my month my quarter my high watermark
01:03 We we rode the AI send me is really well
01:05 We we caught nice moves in the small caps the bios gold Bitcoin
01:10 So I'm like, you know what?
01:10 I'm taking a step back here because I can do that as an active trader because I don't know
01:14 You know what kind of rotation we're gonna have you everyone's talking about how you know
01:18 The the laggards of the mag7 and get better the leaders are you consolidate monies and go here there for me?
01:24 I'm I just I didn't feel that smart. So, you know, I'm not short in fighting it, but I'm also you know
01:31 Not all in long. I'm gonna wait to see how we feel a little bit after the maybe the first hour of trading
01:36 All right, and we're talking to Scott Redler again from t3 trading Scott's been coming on
01:40 Now a few times over the past couple months always great analysis always great insights
01:46 And if you want to check out his free trading book
01:49 I threw that in the in the chat Scott
01:52 Do you mind telling us a little bit more about that book before we get into some other stocks?
01:56 You know, this is a pro earnings gap trading book. Basically gaps tell you a lot about
02:02 Stocks they tell you about potential direction moving forward, especially post earnings
02:07 I usually have a you know, some some people take options into earnings
02:11 That's the only thing I ever do in turn just so you know when my Cardinal rules is you never take stock into earnings?
02:16 Just you never know what's gonna happen
02:17 If you think you know what's gonna happen, you know, what's gonna happen?
02:19 You're probably going to jail because that means you have inside information and no one has it
02:23 So what you should do is you take options into earnings?
02:27 It could be calls a call spread puts of put spreads never sell naked premium
02:31 You know
02:32 So this way if you're wrong you lose a little bit you stay involved and then but you know
02:37 If you don't want to play something then post earnings a gap could tell you a lot about
02:41 How to think about something moving forward for instance, like let's say let's say Oracle today, right?
02:46 Let's you know, let's if you could give you know, what if I could present Oracle for instance here, okay
02:52 Let me press present. Well, I might ask questions Scott. You're stealing my
02:57 Let's give them a live gap to go. Let's let's go. Let's see what you going on this Oracle gap
03:03 See great minds think alike, don't they?
03:05 Alright, so let's go to my chart. Did it did it go to Oracle? Yeah
03:10 So so first, you know, you had this lower gap, right? This was the last time they missed
03:16 Okay, and they had no power to keep it below. So that was one gap
03:19 Okay, and then you had another gap post earnings that kind of got filled to show that that means nothing
03:24 So now moving forward, okay, which I just posted this chart, you know
03:28 If you go to Oracle Oracle right now, if you look at the inside tip, it's up 14, right?
03:33 So Oracle right now is at 128. So as an active trader, okay
03:37 If you took calls or a call spread into the print you did well
03:41 I got to give Dan props from the alpha team. He had a whole
03:45 Long strategy for Oracle. I wasn't interested. I didn't play it. Okay. I missed it. I'll live
03:50 These guys played it and made good money after hours. You could have played it through the gap
03:55 117 it filled fast
03:57 I remember when I reported last night right after like there's a quick gap to fill the 124 and change it did and then I'm
04:03 Like we got a listen for the conference call, which was very bullish to see whether or not I could take out 126 127
04:10 So now here's Oracle 128. So if Oracle gets above and stays above for today
04:18 Then you have a big gap and then what you could do is you take today's low
04:23 Tomorrow and you could be long that for a potential swing trade if it holds
04:30 Because that means there's momentum that means this commitment that means the institutions are there and it could be a great trade
04:36 Post earnings if you didn't take an intern so for today for Oracle, I think this
04:41 126 128 is really important. That's exactly where it is
04:45 It's like the market makers know, you know where they want to play with people and then um, and then we see what happens from there
04:50 I can go over a lot of different other pro earnings got plays that gave us really nice moves prior
04:56 You know, you could you could do let's see
04:59 What Scott before you move on from that?
05:03 Just I just want to give you know, just my perspective on this thing and then you know, you cannot
05:09 You know at the top of that. No, I mean, I just look at this thing
05:13 I mean, I look at the all-time high in June of 23 and once
05:16 2754 I looked at you got up to this
05:20 12750 area back in September, right? So to me in that area, let's say above 25
05:27 126 127 you had
05:29 institutional sellers right
05:31 Institute that the big boys. Those are the one that puts in those kind of tops
05:35 Then you saw the stock tumble back up to $100. I mean, I
05:38 Just can't think about resistance in this thing today
05:43 I mean, you know as far as getting up to me if this doesn't get up and take out the pre-market high today
05:49 I think you get to get this stock a lot cheaper. How you looking at the pre-market action?
05:54 juxtaposed with the month lease
05:57 Well, you know, yeah points of reference like you said, okay, it was rejected in June at
06:02 12750 then it was rejected in September of 126. So there were sellers there but now from
06:08 2023 all the way to you know, March of
06:12 2024 I can't count but that's like the two years of consolidation
06:16 I mean other institutions were were accumulating that entire time, right? So they're accumulating that entire time
06:23 It wasn't ready to go through there. They don't absorb, you know
06:26 I think the last quarter wasn't great and now there's some strong quarter good guidance
06:30 So now if it gets and stays above that level
06:33 Okay, all these people now in profits and then potentially this the the base of buyers will make money
06:40 So that level is really important if it doesn't stay above it
06:44 Then you know, there's more supply there and it's just not ready to be prime time for additional gains
06:49 But this stock has not had a lot priced in because it's been in this range for so long
06:53 It's one thing if the stock has a major move prior to numbers heading into the numbers and then it you know
07:00 Chances are it's gonna sell off no matter what but when you have a channel like you have here from from June of you know
07:07 June 2023 to here. That's a long time
07:10 You can actually even go to the weekly chart and probably see it even a little bit better
07:13 You know
07:14 So here is here's a nice big channel in the weekly chart where it wasn't ready here
07:19 If you remember because it went too far too fast and then it wasn't even ready on this potential double top
07:24 But but now we'll see you know
07:27 is this gonna be a huge gap where nobody's allowed to buy because it went through it and
07:32 Can it now stay above this spot for additional gains?
07:35 Which I think for the market will be interesting because if it doesn't that's telling you that hey
07:40 Maybe there's no appetite for risk for big names like this to even make higher highs and continue even with strong guidance
07:46 I'll tell you hey, maybe we're a little bit overboard in the overall in this season
07:49 It can't be a buyer and we come in
07:51 You know if it gets above and stays above and goes that could breed confidence
07:55 That may be other names that haven't quite made all-time highs this year, you know have the possibility of doing so
08:02 So there's a lot of different ways to look at this a appetite for risk be you know for potential cash
08:06 Well, if you can stay above this now and continue
08:11 Scott I mean yesterday and Friday we had some of our leaders so far of the year kind of look like they're potentially running out
08:17 of steam car Vanna
08:19 Celsius holding some of these stocks with some gaps down. Are you and video SMCI you name it?
08:25 Are you close to calling a top on some of these hottest names or do you think these are just healthy pullbacks?
08:30 Well, you know again everyone loves a good call, right? Right
08:36 Okay, well
08:40 Spot
08:41 No, no, do I think that Nvidia made all-time high on Friday or were a generational high?
08:47 No, but do I think that yesterday is the generational buying opportunity?
08:51 I don't know you look at the chart here in the video a big bearish engulfing candle
08:56 Well, all I know is that means get out of the way. It's no longer a swing trade now
09:00 We'll tactically make some cash flow here and I did so yes that I didn't take it into today because I don't take stock into
09:06 A binary event which was the CPI, you know, if you look now what where is a Nvidia today?
09:11 So Nvidia is up 28 76, so it's not even at yesterday's high, you know
09:16 I think it's gonna take time to rebuild. I think that there will be a time when this makes a new high
09:21 I just don't know how long and I'd be lying to you if I told you I did not and if I did tell you
09:25 You know, then you wouldn't have me on anymore because I'm talking trash
09:29 Bottom line is if you look at SMCI everyone called the top on that right SMCI on
09:34 Right, February 16th because it came so far
09:38 It had a big bearish engulfing candle took two days to decline then it rebuilt and hey
09:45 It made a new high by 130 points and that was probably three weeks later
09:49 So this big candle led to a rest not the high in the year
09:54 So got a sin the video could do the same thing
09:57 But it needs to rebuild and take time and you need to know how to approach it where you know
10:02 You're not on the water and you can handle the days in the weeks of trading if you're too big either which way
10:08 Got it and I mean, how would you
10:12 Like at what point I see you're moving averages on here and whatnot at one at what point are you hopping in and buying this?
10:19 back on the long side
10:21 Well, I I rented it yesterday for a trade
10:24 I didn't take it home because I wasn't sure that 841 with the doji clothes is gonna be the low
10:30 We could add a really hot CPI. This thing could have been down 20 points
10:34 I am NOT looking to put this on as a swing trade right now
10:37 I'm looking at just a trade in until I see a bigger trend
10:40 We had a lot of swing trades on with this when it was here when it broke above
10:44 505 when it was riding the 8-day up or even post earnings. Remember we talked about you want to talk about a
10:50 Gap, okay. So here's a pro earnings gap right there took out 746
10:55 That was a big swing trade for us because we had defined risk
10:59 You could be long above 746 then it stayed above the 8-day moving average all the way to Friday
11:04 So this was what you call a great swing trade right now. It's in price discovery phase. It's in
11:09 Hey, you know, we're not sure what it's gonna do
11:12 So as an active trader, you can't just say I'm gonna be short along here because it's not telling me enough yet
11:18 There's not enough price discovery
11:19 So there will be a time we'll be trading it for a certain amount of time and there'll be a time when hey
11:24 I said can this start a new active special sequence that's definable like it did on this day, which was
11:30 February 22nd as of right now, you know, if you want to be long verse 838 41 be my guest
11:36 That's your defined risk for me. I'm not yet and I'm just gonna
11:40 Try and make money both ways. Who knows it. Oh, it's opening up $20 today
11:44 We'll see if all of a sudden, you know
11:46 The futures come in and now like oh it was a hot CPI and it goes from green to red that could happen, too
11:51 All right. We got time for about one more stock
11:54 I don't know if you've had time to chart this yet, but we had on on report earnings this morning
11:58 Not great yet a gap down there and on on what are your thoughts here?
12:04 My thoughts is thank goodness. We have a process because I started to get along on on cloud at 28
12:11 This was right here in February
12:13 Also what $30 calls thinking it could have a pre earnings move went to 35
12:18 I tweeted to the entire universe and to Portnoy who I gave this play to a 28 because we're having a little bit of a
12:24 Fight and he bought it. I bought it. We played options went to 35 plus at 33 and a half
12:29 I said I'm done with the stock. I don't take stock into earnings
12:32 I rolled up my calls from the 30s to the 33s made over a hundred percent on both and then I said, you know what?
12:38 If the if the reports gonna be solid I'll do a call spread
12:41 I did the 35 39s risking a buck and a quarter to make 275 and it's wrong
12:47 I'm gonna lose on that which I only risked a third. I'm not in the stock and at this point
12:51 I'm just gonna let it play out. It's got that it's gapping down the guidance wasn't great
12:55 And you know, we'll see let it do some price discovery today, but it was just a play within 20 plays and thank goodness
13:01 We don't take stock into earnings and don't have pre, you know
13:05 predefined opinions because again if you thought you knew the earnings
13:09 Chances are you talking to people you shouldn't be talking to and you probably go to jail over time
13:14 Yeah, so that's what we do options. That's the process working out for you right there not carrying it or not holding into earnings
13:21 I lied. We got time for one more quick one Boeing. Do you have any any any charts on Boeing?
13:27 Boeing is a widow maker, you know, it's just news the doors gonna blow off wheels gonna blow off charts been very very broken
13:35 But again, this is the process look when it was above the moving average from November all the way here
13:40 That was when it was in a strong trend
13:41 That was when I guess the news flow was good and then then now it's been below at the entire time and I don't think it's
13:47 Worth the time listen in in two years from now
13:49 We'll bone probably be another all-time high because it is a quality name and everyone needs these planes and they fix their problems
13:55 Yes, but it's an active trader. I would just avoid it
13:57 They could be strong one day and then come out with news that you know that the windshield blew off and all of a sudden
14:02 It's down $15. There's easier things out there than playing Boeing, you know, it's an active trader. Well, there you go again
14:08 We've been on the line with Scott Redler from t3 trading. He's got that free trading book. Go check it out
14:14 I'm throwing that link in the chat one more time for some more
14:17 Great insights from Scott Scott. Thank you as always for hopping on pre-market prep with us this morning
14:22 Thanks for having me and I get you know
14:24 I'll leave you with one more thing because you want it sort of like, you know a thought a lot of people have been like
14:29 Kind of really really negative on Apple, right? They've been saying Apple's done the best days are behind it
14:35 They're not innovating that this and at that, you know, I do think that you know below that Apple made, you know last week
14:41 You know right here this 168
14:43 Couldn't wind up being the low for the next few weeks. So I'm along the little Apple
14:48 I think you can put your stop in at
14:50 172 or 168 and we'll see if this starts a new active sequence into that into that June potential
14:57 WWDC AI event because everyone's saying it's over
15:00 But I just think it was a consolidation for a month for a few months and you know could wind up
15:05 Being a better place to be I haven't been in Apple during the past six weeks
15:09 But just started looking at it a little bit closer. So maybe that's something, you know, that might be
15:14 Reacting better in the next few weeks
15:17 There you go. Well again Scott. Thanks for hopping on. We will catch up soon. Enjoy the rest of your training day
15:22 Have a good Tuesday
15:24 Thank you very much. Have a good one as well. Scott. We'll talk to you soon