The Scotsman Politics: Spring Budget 2024 Review with Dale Miller and Alexander Brown.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Hello, and welcome to the Scotsman's Politics Show
00:11 where we are reviewing the spring budget.
00:15 Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has stood up.
00:17 He has given us his rundown about the big commitments
00:21 and announcements made by the UK government.
00:24 And I'm here with Westminster correspondent,
00:26 Alexander Brown to take us through everything.
00:28 Alex, there were some key pledges mooted
00:32 in the buildup to this national insurance windfall tax.
00:35 Non-dom status, did we get everything that we expected?
00:38 - We got everything we expected.
00:41 And in fact, there were no rabbits.
00:43 So much of the talk around Westminster had been,
00:46 oh, you know, maybe he'll cut income tax as well.
00:48 Maybe they'll go further.
00:49 And so the government can have an election in May.
00:52 There'll be something, some huge pitch to voters.
00:54 But when you go through the measures
00:56 and the financial package and the size of it,
00:58 in reality, this was smaller than the autumn statement.
01:01 This was not a significant spread of packages.
01:04 It's cutting national insurance.
01:06 Again, the non-dom is a significant U-turn,
01:10 but it's very interesting that when Labour wanted
01:12 to get rid of non-dom status,
01:13 the government said it would cost them 350 million a year.
01:17 Now, the Chancellor is saying it can save
01:19 the government money and it can bring in money
01:23 to the public purse.
01:23 So there weren't any real surprises.
01:26 I think the main takeaway having heard that is,
01:28 a May election is less likely than it maybe was this morning.
01:32 I think the Chancellor has left himself room for,
01:35 and he did hint at the idea of further tax cuts.
01:38 He wants to get to a position where they can have
01:40 more long-term tax cuts of maybe another fiscal statement
01:44 later this year, which suggests an autumn election.
01:46 - So you say no rabbits out of the hats.
01:50 Were there any surprises today?
01:52 Anything that we didn't expect
01:54 that you picked up from the start?
01:57 - No, I mean, I felt quite content actually in our coverage
01:59 and that we had said, I'd said that there would be a wind
02:02 for the windfall tax would be extended
02:04 and the government weren't confirming that,
02:06 but I'd spoken to a few people.
02:07 And then indeed there has been an extension
02:09 of the windfall tax, which raises huge questions
02:12 for the Scottish Tories.
02:14 Douglas Ross, I think has already said
02:16 that he will vote against it.
02:17 And we now know that he made very public condemnation of it
02:21 and made a pitch to the prime minister and to the chancellor
02:24 to the extent that they had to have a meeting
02:26 with the Scottish secretary to discuss it.
02:29 The camera in PMQs cut to him at one point
02:32 where they were talking about where the chancellor said
02:34 he was a champion of Scotch whiskey
02:36 and Douglas Ross did not look pleased at all.
02:40 We also knew that there was very unlikely
02:43 to be a cut in spirit duty and indeed it was frozen.
02:46 Now the government would say,
02:48 oh, this is actually a great news.
02:49 This is a surprise.
02:50 It means people won't be paying more.
02:52 Scotch whiskey association,
02:54 while they welcome not having to pay more,
02:56 are still very unhappy and still say
02:58 that it's a fundamental misunderstanding of their industry
03:01 and has seen the prior thing,
03:03 Scotch whiskey is taxed four times the price of cider.
03:06 So industry is not very happy.
03:08 And I think one thing that's really worth looking at
03:11 is in making these tax cuts
03:13 and making that financial wiggle room to national insurance,
03:16 it's created, I've been, I'm doing the math
03:17 and I'm looking at my notes here.
03:19 Essentially there will have to be cuts
03:20 of 20 billion a year by 2028.
03:24 So the government talked about running a clean estate,
03:28 a tight estate.
03:28 It's not gonna increase funding for the NHS.
03:30 It's just going to do it more intelligently.
03:33 But hearing about these tax cuts
03:35 and knowing that more and more are planned,
03:37 the huge cuts of public services are coming.
03:39 And I mean, the SNP and Labour had both warned
03:41 this is a government that will be cutting
03:43 public services to the bone.
03:44 And while it wasn't framed like that
03:46 and it was framed as streamlining and admin,
03:49 these tax cuts come at a huge cost.
03:51 And I think it's quite telling that we expect Labour
03:53 to be the ones who probably have to manage it
03:56 after they've come in.
03:57 - Now, Alex, just circling around to the alcohol duty
04:00 and the whiskey, I know you'd written on Sunday,
04:04 effectively the Scotch Whiskey Association,
04:06 where after a cut to duty,
04:09 just the fourth time by a chancellor in a century.
04:12 So I can say just holding it
04:15 is not exactly what they wanted.
04:17 You mentioned the election there.
04:18 So, and there was speculation over
04:23 whether it could even be May.
04:24 On the back of this, you're indicating
04:26 that seems pretty unlikely.
04:28 - Yeah, I don't think anyone is especially moved
04:32 by the idea of cutting national insurance.
04:34 I mean, if cutting national insurance by two points
04:37 was enough to improve the polls,
04:38 the Tories would have done much better
04:40 after the autumn statement last year
04:41 when Jeremy Hunt cut national insurance by two pence.
04:46 So it's a further cut.
04:48 It's 900 pounds for the average person
04:50 a year in their pocket.
04:51 I think it saves 27 million people money.
04:55 And that's very helpful,
04:56 but all the polling shows that people don't really,
04:59 it's not about tax for people anymore.
05:00 It's about funding for public services.
05:02 So I'm not necessarily sure repeating the trick is enough.
05:06 And I was speaking to MPs and activists this morning,
05:10 and one of them was saying to me,
05:12 "I think there's gonna be a May election.
05:13 "I think we have to go early
05:14 "because things are not going to get better.
05:17 "And if we do it now,
05:18 "it avoids the aftermath of the local elections
05:21 "and the Blackpool by-election and the mayoral elections,
05:24 "all of which the Tories are expected
05:26 "to take a battering in."
05:28 But the same person also said,
05:29 but also, "I know that's suicide.
05:32 "I know to go for it now is to see a wipeout,
05:35 "but to wait longer could see an even bigger wipeout."
05:38 So there is still mixed feelings about this.
05:40 The head of the Treasury Select Committee,
05:43 a Conservative MP said this morning,
05:45 she was preparing for a May election,
05:47 but that doesn't mean that there's going to be one.
05:50 There seems to be a real mix of moods
05:53 and attitudes on it in Downing Street.
05:55 I spoke to one person who I know
05:57 is categorically ruled out as it's not going to happen.
06:00 Senior government figures today were briefing
06:02 that there is not going to be an early election,
06:04 but we've seen an ambassador told
06:07 they can't attend an event in April,
06:09 and they haven't explained why.
06:11 That suggests they might have to be here for an election.
06:14 So we're all kind of looking at things.
06:17 Everything that MPs tell us now,
06:19 or every slight ambassadorial decision is suddenly going,
06:22 "Does that mean election?"
06:23 And the only one who really knows is Rishi Sunak,
06:26 if he's even decided.
06:27 - Alex, very last question.
06:29 I may know the answer to this,
06:31 but what will the Scottish government think of this budget?
06:34 (Alex laughs)
06:35 - I mean, I imagine even before having seen the budget,
06:38 the Scottish government would think it was very bad,
06:40 but I think we know that under this,
06:42 the Scottish government gets 300 million pounds
06:46 in further consequentials under the Barnett formula,
06:48 but the tax cut costs the government 9 billion.
06:52 So the government is giving 300 million to Scotland,
06:55 but it is taking 9 billion out of the public purse.
06:58 So I know 300 million seems like a lot of money,
07:02 but it doesn't actually go very far
07:03 when we're talking about infrastructure projects
07:05 or regeneration and funding long-term economic plan
07:10 or whatever.
07:10 So I imagine they won't be very happy.
07:12 And I know that we heard from Stephen Flynn
07:14 that he wanted 15 billion more for the NHS,
07:18 and instead they've maintained the current levels of funding.
07:21 So they won't be very happy.
07:24 There's not really any rabbits for them.
07:26 And between the oil and gas,
07:28 though I suppose they maybe have a crossover
07:30 on oil and gas because they also don't support
07:33 an extension of the windfall tax.
07:34 So there's nothing there for them.
07:37 There'll just be more complaints.
07:39 - It'll be interesting, Alex, on the back of this,
07:41 whether they say there's any more money
07:43 to help with the housing situation up here in Scotland,
07:46 which Shona Robison was very clear that any money
07:50 that was up and above expectations
07:52 would be going towards that avenue.
07:54 Alex, thank you very much for joining us.
07:56 You can read all the coverage on the budget at scotsman.com.
08:01 There is a designated area on the site
08:04 specifically for budget coverage,
08:06 but you can also click on the politics tab
08:08 for all the latest.
08:09 Please follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and X,
08:12 and buy a copy of the paper tomorrow.
08:15 Until then.
08:16 (upbeat music)
08:18 (upbeat music)
08:21 you