PH to experience 'peak' El Niño from March to May

The Manila Times

PH to experience 'peak' El Niño from March to May  Analiza Solis, head of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), says that extreme El Niño will be felt in over 40 provinces from March to May of this year. As a result, extreme drought is expected in these areas where government must exert efforts to ease its effects.  Video and Interview by Ezrah Raya  Subscribe to The Manila Times Channel - https://tmt.ph/YTSubscribe   Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.net     Follow us:  Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebook   Instagram - https://tmt.ph/instagram   Twitter - https://tmt.ph/twitter   DailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotion     Subscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digital     Check out our Podcasts:  Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotify   Apple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcasts   Amazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusic   Deezer: https://tmt.ph/deezer   Stitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcher  Tune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein    #themanilatimes   #reeltimes #exclusiveinterview  #elniño

Transcript

00:00 I'm Ezra Araya and this is the Manila Times.

00:03 Philippines may expect warmer days ahead as El Niño, the climate pattern that triggered

00:09 extreme droughts and heat waves in the country, is not over yet, according to Pagasa.

00:15 Mature El Niño have been felt this February, but its peak will be felt in the months to

00:20 come.

00:22 According to NDRMC, El Niño has caused hundreds of millions of damages in agriculture across

00:27 the country.

00:29 Moreover, extreme drought is poised to affect many provinces due to below normal rainfall

00:35 conditions.

00:36 On the other hand, as El Niño says goodbye, this year El Niño could emerge on the second

00:42 half of the year.

00:44 This would mean increased rainfall and cooler temperatures and possibly flash floods.

00:50 Here to give us an update is Pagasa Climate Monitoring and Prediction Chief, Annalisa

00:55 Solis.

00:56 Welcome to the Manila Times, ma'am.

00:57 Ma'am Anna, could you confirm the drought that may be experienced in some parts of the

01:02 country?

01:03 And first, let's confirm, so El Niño is not yet over?

01:08 Yeah, El Niño is not yet over, so we will still experience the peak impact of this ongoing

01:17 El Niño.

01:18 So already, it's in strong and mature states until February 2024.

01:26 After that, it will start to decay or weakening El Niño.

01:30 But despite El Niño is weakening in the next couple of months, so we will still experience

01:37 the lag effect of peak El Niño.

01:40 Peak El Niño, meaning?

01:41 The peak impact of El Niño because it has a lag effect.

01:45 So before it decays, it means the temperature of the sea or the warming, the mature El Niño.

01:54 So it would take time to affect or impact us.

01:58 So it will end, it will decay, but we will still experience the peak impact.

02:04 So our summer days will be hotter?

02:10 Yeah, it will be hotter.

02:13 We are saying it will be hotter.

02:16 Yes, ma'am.

02:17 So the peak will be experienced in March, April, and May.

02:20 And when can we expect that El Niño will die down, ma'am, or the end of El Niño?

02:26 Based on our outlook in terms of dry spell and drought assessment outlook, it will be

02:33 eased out by the end of June, as we can see.

02:37 Because by the end of May, there are still areas, around 32 provinces, will be experiencing

02:44 or might be experiencing meteorological drought conditions.

02:48 So meaning if until May, below normal or way below normal, their rainfall.

02:55 So these are the areas already experiencing prolonged dry spell for almost three to five

03:01 months by end of May.

03:03 Yes, ma'am.

03:04 These 22 provinces or areas, where are these places?

03:09 By end of...

03:10 The areas that experienced dry spells or drought.

03:16 So for now, as of February 25, so there are already 24 provinces, up to experiencing meteorological

03:23 drought conditions.

03:25 And these are 23 provinces from Luzon, one in the Visayas, which is Negros Occidental.

03:33 And 17 areas are now experiencing dry spell.

03:38 So meaning during the past two or three months, they are already below to way below normal

03:46 rainfall now.

03:47 And this will now worsen in the coming months?

03:52 This will worsen in the coming months, particularly peak of our impact is in April, as we can

04:00 see, where in more than 40 provinces might be experiencing meteorological drought conditions.

04:07 So for now, we haven't yet finished assessing the whole Feb, because it's only now that

04:14 Feb 29.

04:15 So after February ends, that's when we will release the potential for dry spell and drought

04:23 in the next six months.

04:25 Ma'am, I understand some cloud seeding operations are being conducted, as we speak, because

04:32 of these dry spells.

04:33 Now, tell us, ma'am, what can we expect?

04:36 Because we know the Pagasa also said that after the El Nino, an upcoming La Nina will

04:44 be coming as well this year.

04:46 So would it mean cooler days and more rainfall?

04:52 For now, based from International Prediction Center, most models agree that there is around

05:00 more than 50%, so actually around 55% chance that El Nino, La Nina might come in this June,

05:08 July, August, July, August, September season.

05:12 So still, almost, the probability is 55% in the next six months probably.

05:22 But during the pre-developing La Nina, so we are still experiencing below normal rainfall

05:30 conditions.

05:31 So that's the impact for us, of the pre-development La Nina.

05:36 But once La Nina has been matured enough, or it's already there, so this is where we

05:42 could experience a higher probability of above normal rainfall conditions that might result

05:48 to floods or landslides.

05:51 So we need to prepare for that before this year ends.

05:53 I see.

05:54 So above normal rainfall conditions after these long dry spells.

06:00 Lastly, ma'am, what can we expect?

06:03 Some research, international research would say that this year, we will be recording the

06:09 hottest days ever recorded.

06:11 So can we expect this for the Philippines?

06:14 Some researchers.

06:15 Some research.

06:16 Yeah, some researchers.

06:17 So last year was the warmest years on record.

06:23 So one of the warmest years on record last year because of the contribution of the warming

06:29 oceans due to La Nina.

06:31 So malaking contribution ng ocean warming last year.

06:35 And it so happened that developing La Nina happens during the Northern Hemisphere summer.

06:42 So it means that it was really summer in June, July, August in the Northern Hemisphere last

06:46 year during developing La Nina.

06:49 That's why they experienced warmest years on record.

06:52 But here in the Philippines, 2023 was the 11th warmest years on record.

06:58 So it's not in the Waal, but then one of the warmest years.

07:03 This year could be one of the warmest, warm and dry season months.

07:07 So para dun lang natin makikita that this season, this warm and dry season months could

07:12 be one of the warmest, not necessarily this full year kasi meron nga tayong impending

07:18 La Nina during the last semester.

07:22 All right.

07:24 Thank you, ma'am, for the updated weather forecast.

07:27 Thank you, Pag-asa, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Chief, Ma'am Annalisa Solis.

07:32 Marami salamat po.

07:33 Thank you, Ms. Esparra.

07:34 Thank you.

07:41 Thank you.

07:42 Thank you.

07:42 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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