Peluang Pasar Saham Jelang Data Inflasi AS
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Selasa (29/02/2024) dengan Tema Peluang Pasar Saham Jelang Data Inflasi AS".
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00:00 We will now look at the market highlight.
00:04 First, Gotoh will start accepting commission from TikTok Tokopedia in February 2024.
00:10 But the share price dropped by 6%.
00:13 Next, Astra International with its share price of ASEE
00:19 which is the final dividend, 421 rupiah per share.
00:24 This is lower than the year 2022 which reached 552 rupiah per share.
00:32 Next, we will look at the emittance agenda.
00:37 There are many RUPS agendas.
00:41 There is Emittance Heal, HITS, WG, GOLD, and then BTPN.
00:49 DPS HMETD for BTPN.
00:54 Next, we will look at the economic agenda for Asia.
00:58 You can see the full data.
01:00 In Japan, retail sales will be released annually in January.
01:08 Next, Vietnam.
01:11 The consumer price index or the inflation of Vietnam
01:15 will be released annually for Asia.
01:19 Next, for the United States.
01:22 The PCE Index will be released annually for the period of January.
01:29 And there is a claim that the initial unemployment in the United States
01:33 will be released as part of the global investors.
01:40 And then, what about the economic agenda in Europe?
01:44 In Germany, the sales of German retail will be released annually for the period of January.
01:51 And still in Germany, there is also data that is released
01:55 related to the unemployment rate in Germany in February.
01:58 Meanwhile, in France, there is domestic brutal product,
02:01 France annually, or this is from the economic growth in France.
02:07 Next, we will update from the Asian Stock Exchange movement.
02:12 You can see the full data on your television screen.
02:16 Variable movements for the Asian Stock Exchange movement.
02:19 Nikkei today experienced a weakness, while the Strait Times experienced a strength.
02:25 Then, the Korean Stock Exchange weakened and Hang Seng Hong Kong in a green position.
02:31 So, there are some economic data and also the capital market movement
02:36 in a number of countries, both in Asia, the United States and Europe.
02:41 Yes, the audience has joined us through Line Zoom.
02:46 Andika Ciptalabora is an analyst from PT Kanaka Hita Solvera.
02:52 Hello, good morning.
02:53 Hello, good morning, Mr. Pras.
02:55 Good health, sir.
02:57 Good health, too, sir.
02:58 Okay, we have already discussed the global market movement.
03:01 This is quite diverse.
03:02 If we look at what actually affects the sentiment,
03:05 what sentiment is moving, which affects the global stock exchange movement.
03:10 Meanwhile, some economic data will be released too.
03:13 Of course, it will be discussed by domestic investors too.
03:16 Please, Mr. Andika.
03:17 Okay, starting from the US index that was closed this morning,
03:22 because if we look at the three main US indexes,
03:26 they are moving together, weakening, compact weakening.
03:29 And indeed, this is a response from the market players who are still wide-angle
03:35 with the Fed policy.
03:38 Because if we look at it, the US inflation is very influential.
03:44 Will the Fed increase or decrease the flow rate for the future?
03:49 Well, last in January 2024, the US inflation rate was still 3.1%,
03:56 so the Fed still maintained its flow rate.
03:59 Well, if I look at it, the Fed's own target is indeed inflation at around 2%.
04:06 While it hasn't reached 2%, the Fed should still maintain its flow rate.
04:12 And even if it's beyond expectations, it can increase the flow rate again
04:17 so that inflation can fall to its target, which is 2%.
04:21 That's why for the trade this morning,
04:24 investors were so desperate that they took action to sell,
04:31 so that the three main US indexes went red.
04:33 And we see that the Asian movement is also very variative, right?
04:37 What do we see?
04:38 Is it again about economic development in the United States?
04:41 Some data that will be released, such as inflation,
04:44 which is also a concern for the movement of the Fed?
04:46 How do you see the direction, the pressure, or the impact
04:50 on the movement of Asian and Indonesian companies?
04:53 Okay, if we look at it, the US main index is indeed a reference for the global index,
05:00 so that the policies in the US will also be responded by the global index,
05:08 including in Asia.
05:10 So if I look at it, the volatile Asian index movement
05:16 or variations like this are also because it follows the US index,
05:22 which is still volatile.
05:26 Okay, what about the movement of the capital market in the country?
05:30 Are the levels of 7,300 quite comfortable for the movement of the IHSG?
05:36 Okay, if we look at it technically,
05:39 yesterday the IHSG was quite strong, it was 0.53%.
05:45 If we pay attention, the IHSG itself is in a resistance,
05:51 for the IHSG technically.
05:54 So there will be a limited potential increase,
05:59 it is resistant at level 7,370,
06:02 so that at 7,370 there will be a correction like that.
06:07 If we look at it, for the sentiment in the country itself,
06:11 the IHSG has moved to 7,300 because the market players
06:15 see the emittance in Indonesia is interesting,
06:19 especially the banks, which are all-time high,
06:21 and soon there will be a season for dividend releases.
06:26 So this is also an attractive force for investors to enter the Indonesian capital market,
06:30 of course, because the emittance levels in Indonesia are good,
06:33 there is a potential to increase the dividend that will be received by future investors.
06:39 Okay, if we look at the stock movement,
06:41 there was information about ISAT,
06:43 ISAT will do a buyback of the stock.
06:46 Is this worth investing for investors to start trading today?
06:51 If we look at it graphically, ISAT is indeed uptrending,
06:56 and it also sets another all-time high record in the stock market movement.
07:02 So if we look at it, I also see that ISAT is still attractive,
07:08 it can even go up to 12,000 to 12,100 for the price increase.
07:13 Okay, for the ISAT movement, the trend is still rising,
07:16 but what about the potential for the future?
07:19 It's an all-time high, then is it in the buyback area or not?
07:24 If we look at it, it's still positive for ISAT,
07:29 because it sets an all-time high,
07:31 it should be close to 12,000 to 12,100,
07:35 it will still have a potential to hit the target.
07:38 Wow, for potential investors who don't have a portfolio,
07:42 will they just go for it when it's in the market?
07:45 Okay, for those of you who are just about to enter ISAT,
07:51 it can be used for short-term trading,
07:54 because for long-term holdings, it's a bit risky because it's already high,
08:00 but we can wait for the low price if we want to hold like that while still uptrending.
08:06 But for the short term, we can maximize it for short-term trading first.
08:10 Okay, the next meeting, there will be Goto accepting a commission from TikTok Tokomedia in February 2024,
08:18 but we see the stock movement continues to go up and down,
08:22 what is the analysis like?
08:24 Okay, technically, yesterday Goto also hit support,
08:29 technically, with a large sales volume like that.
08:36 And if we look at the 76th level, it will have a potential for Goto to hit support at level 68.
08:45 So, because the candle was bad yesterday, there was a large sales pressure,
08:50 for Goto itself, it has a potential to reach the next level 68.
08:54 The recommendation is to sell on strength if we have the item.
08:59 Sell on strength?
09:00 Yes, cut loss.
09:02 Because it's at level 76.
09:04 Okay, it has reached the level of strength, the resistance, right?
09:09 Yes, that's right.
09:11 Okay, a little bit for Astra International,
09:13 how will it calculate the share of the dividend of 421 rupiah per share is lower than in 2022?
09:19 Okay, indeed, Astra just released its financial report on the last day,
09:27 which is in the middle of a lot of negative sentiment.
09:31 Astra can still book the stock and print the all-time high of the stock.
09:36 And indeed, if we look at it, even though the dividend yield is small,
09:42 the dividend will be proposed, but this is waiting for the decision of the RUPS.
09:46 However, at the current price, it still gets a yield of 8% to 9%.
09:50 Usually, Astra will come back in about 4 months,
09:54 so that the dividend hunters can start collecting Astra.
09:59 At least, it will give a yield of 8% to 9% from the current price for the dividend.
10:06 That's it, an analysis related to the Astra International movement,
10:10 then Goto and also Isat.
10:12 Mr. Andrika, we will stop for a while later,
10:14 we will discuss what you recommend for the AIDXN and the shareholders,
10:18 we will be back in a moment.
10:20 Yes, shareholders, thank you for still joining us,
10:22 we will continue the interesting discussion related to the stock market movement
10:26 together with Mr. Andrika Ciptalabora, PT Anakahita Solvera analyst.
10:30 Mr. Andrika, we will discuss from the sectoral point of view,
10:33 if we talk about our economic development,
10:36 which can be said that the results of the previous election were quite stable,
10:39 giving confidence again to global and domestic investors,
10:43 how do you see it with sectors that may be an investment option?
10:48 Okay, if we discuss,
10:51 of course, the main one is the banking sector,
10:56 because in addition to the better ledger,
11:00 and also has the potential to distribute a larger dividend than last year,
11:04 banking will also be positive,
11:07 because if we look at the results of this quick count,
11:10 the president's election is only one period,
11:14 so there will be certainty.
11:17 In addition, there are also emittance related to the PASLON program that will win,
11:30 and it's like free lunch,
11:33 then the development of the next IKN,
11:35 construction, emittance of consumers,
11:38 such as poultry, chicken, like that, poultry, like jepva,
11:43 then free milk, like ULTJ,
11:47 you can serve consumers and construction,
11:51 then also banking.
11:53 Okay, banking, today it was announced that on February 29, 2024,
11:59 there will be the fifth groundbreaking in the IKN,
12:02 which is dominated by several investors from the national banking sector.
12:06 Which bank is interesting for us to collect,
12:11 is it still the big four or is there another emittance?
12:14 Of course, as usual, the big four, BCA, BRI, Mandiri, and BNI,
12:20 will be the main choice in the banking sector.
12:25 In addition, there is emittance that is technically uptrending,
12:30 which is CNB Niaga or BNGA,
12:32 it can also be served by friends.
12:35 Okay, there is BNGA, you also recommend CNB Niaga.
12:39 Yesterday, the closing market was 2070, how do you see it?
12:45 Okay, BNGA is interesting.
12:49 Okay, if we look at it, even though it was weakening 1.89 yesterday,
12:56 it still looks uptrending and indeed for friends,
13:01 whether it tests the support of psychology again at level 20,
13:06 friends can save to enter BNGA.
13:10 Okay, so we still wait for the support price first,
13:15 how strong it is at that level.
13:18 Okay, what are the options that you can recommend for investors?
13:23 We know that the opening market is already like that,
13:25 the movement of the joint index is already fluctuating in the morning.
13:29 What are the options that you are good at?
13:32 For today, I still have JPFA, Java Confed Indonesia,
13:37 which indeed since February 26, it broke 1140 and formed a double bottom pattern.
13:46 I see this very technically interesting and has the potential to test resistance at 1210 and 1240 for the future.
13:54 Okay, 1210, 1240, the current levels are 1160, can we still enter?
13:59 But if the closing market closes below 1140,
14:03 it will be better for the card loss investors,
14:07 because indeed to make the double bottom scenario will be canceled.
14:12 Okay, that's it for Java,
14:14 it will be benefited later with the presence of several government programs in the future.
14:20 The next floor, there is Telkom, right?
14:23 Tekim.
14:24 Oh, Tekim, okay.
14:25 What is Tekim like?
14:27 Tekim, as I saw yesterday, the candle is very bullish, the body is big like that.
14:33 It also breaks the resistance 6475, this forms a cup and handle,
14:38 and indeed later I think it will have the potential to strengthen to the resistance 6925 area.
14:45 Okay, I touched the level 7300,
14:48 for the movement of Tekim, do you think there is a potential to reach that level again?
14:52 For now, I think if Tekim can break 6925, it will have the potential to reach that level again.
15:00 Okay, that's it for the analysis of the Ciwi Kimi ATMK paper factory.
15:04 Next, Mas Andika, for the recommended shares.
15:07 Okay, the shares are also INKP, Tekim's brother.
15:12 Okay.
15:13 Yes, if we look at it, it's the same.
15:16 INKP in the last trade, the volume of the purchase was quite large,
15:21 and indeed today it will test at level 8200.
15:25 If it can break 8200, it will break the console,
15:29 which has been happening since February 1, the last month,
15:32 indeed INKP is sideways,
15:36 so if INKP breaks 8200, it has the potential to the next resistance, 8575.
15:45 Okay, that's it for INKP.
15:48 Next, there is BBTN, which you also recommend.
15:52 BBTN is still maintained, Mas Andika.
15:54 Okay.
15:55 This is also interesting, besides the other Big Four BUMN banks,
16:00 this has also started to create an uptrend for BBTN itself, Mas.
16:05 And if we look at it, it does have the potential to rise again if it breaks 1500,
16:11 because it will form a pull-span for BBTN.
16:17 If it breaks 1500, it has the potential to rally to 1630, Mas.
16:22 For BBTN.
16:25 Some of the stocks that were recommended by Kanaka, Hita, Solvera,
16:29 and hopefully this can be an investment choice, of course,
16:32 and we also provide investment choices to the investors of IDXNL.
16:36 Mas Andika, we will continue later the discussion with some of the stock movements,
16:42 and maybe we will see what analysis and strategies need to be applied by investors and investors,
16:47 we will be back soon.
16:49 Okay, we will continue the discussion with Mas Andika,
16:52 the creator of the laboratory, analyst PT Kanaka, Hita, Solvera.
16:55 Mas Andika, if we look at some of the stocks you have recommended to the investors of IDXNL,
17:00 where if we look at some of the stocks, they are quite diverse.
17:05 Yes, that's right, Mas.
17:08 If we look at the stock index movement,
17:12 the opening market, IHSK is back in the green zone,
17:16 even though the movement is again, we are very fluctuating,
17:20 up and down again, what is happening?
17:23 Is this investor's pull still waiting for the morning,
17:28 or are you looking for new stocks to be their collection?
17:32 Okay, Mas, technically, IHSK should have been limited,
17:37 because there is resistance at 7.70 giga,
17:41 and it should have made IHSK rise less aggressively than yesterday, 0.59%,
17:51 because here is already the area of ​​the junubli,
17:54 so the investor will be more active in profit taking, like that.
17:59 Okay, we will immediately look at some data related to the opening market today,
18:03 you can watch the full on your television screen.
18:06 So, Mirsa, these are the stocks that are moving like that,
18:09 from the index movement of the joint stock price,
18:12 we see some stocks that are experiencing strength,
18:15 there is Jekon, then Vire ANJT,
18:18 HUMI for stocks that are in the top gainers category.
18:22 Then the top losers are KEN, then AHAP, DOIT, and BBRI,
18:29 which have started to be affected by the sale action for the movement of moving stock.
18:36 And the movement, as you can see,
18:39 is still moving for the movement of moving stock.
18:44 Mas Andika, we see the stocks that are in the top gainers category,
18:49 the top losers are mostly second liners, third liners.
18:54 Is this market still wet and sea?
18:59 In other words, wet and sea are the big caps stocks that are usually in the latest collection.
19:05 Okay, if we look at it, after the boom, it created an all-time high,
19:11 and if we look at it, it's already junubli in this boom,
19:15 the price has risen since November, like that, Mas.
19:18 Indeed, the market players also respect the mid-cap and small caps stocks
19:24 whose price movement does not experience significant increases,
19:29 such as big caps that attract IHSG from 6,700 to 7,300, like that, Mas.
19:36 So, indeed, the market players also respect the stocks that do have good potential,
19:42 but the price is still low, even though the market cap is smaller in the middle caps and small caps, like that, Mas.
19:49 Okay, the recommendation in dealing with this condition,
19:51 should we finally do short-term trading first or can we do medium to long?
19:56 Okay, this is back to the risk profile, all of you who are watching this morning,
20:03 indeed, for short-term trading itself, it is better to invest in small caps,
20:08 because the volatility is very high, sometimes it can even go straight to red, like that.
20:14 Well, indeed, it is better to do it while working for the short term,
20:20 and if you can monitor the market like that, you can maximize the profit with buyback, like that, in the short term.
20:28 And for those of you who cannot monitor the market fully,
20:32 it is better to invest in the banks, like BCA or Telkom, or others,
20:41 where the price movement is slower, like that, Mas.
20:44 Okay, that's it, the risk profile is what needs to be respected,
20:47 if the heart is strong, maybe we can play fast, to see the fluctuating stock movement like today.
20:54 Mas Sandika, thank you very much for your time and also the analysis that you have conveyed to the audience,
20:59 and good luck with your activities again.
21:01 Salam Sehat, Mas Sandika.
21:02 Salam Sehat, Mas.
21:04 [Music]
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