2 Bulan Pertama 2024, BI Pertahankan BI Rate 6%
Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI (BI Rate) sebesar 6%, suku bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 5,25%, dan suku bunga Lending Facility 6,75% dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada 20-21 Februari 2024.
Gubernur Bank Indonesia Perry warjiyo menyatakan, Keputusan mempertahankan BI Rate pada level 6% tetap konsisten dengan fokus kebijakan moneter yang pro stabilitas, yaitu untuk penguatan stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah serta langkah preemptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali dalam sasaran 2,5±1% pada 2024.
Perry menegaskan, BI terus menjalankan kebijakan makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran tetap pro pertumbuhan (pro growth) untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. kebijakan makroprudensial longgar terus ditempuh untuk mendorong kredit/pembiayaan perbankan kepada dunia usaha dan rumah tangga.
Gubernur Bank Indonesia Perry warjiyo menyatakan, Keputusan mempertahankan BI Rate pada level 6% tetap konsisten dengan fokus kebijakan moneter yang pro stabilitas, yaitu untuk penguatan stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah serta langkah preemptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali dalam sasaran 2,5±1% pada 2024.
Perry menegaskan, BI terus menjalankan kebijakan makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran tetap pro pertumbuhan (pro growth) untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. kebijakan makroprudensial longgar terus ditempuh untuk mendorong kredit/pembiayaan perbankan kepada dunia usaha dan rumah tangga.
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05:07 if not with the increase in the geopolitical tension, the world economy, this year is probably moving towards an unfortunate state.
05:19 That is one of the considerations of Bank Indonesia.
05:23 What's more, I read that after the election of the President,
05:32 there is a discussion that the government will adjust the price of oil.
05:37 I use the term "adjust" to simplify it, in the real sense, it means increasing the price of oil.
05:45 We know that if the government's plan is realized,
05:49 it will have a significant inflatory impact,
05:53 which is not only the first round effect that we have to feel, but also the second round effect.
06:01 This is all the external pressure and domestic conditions that are the foundation of Bank Indonesia's consideration
06:07 to maintain the PI rate at 6%.
06:11 The global factor seems to be still the dominant factor,
06:15 the central bank's consideration, it seems, Mr. Arian, in determining the PI rate, which was finally decided to maintain at 6%.
06:22 But what do you see with the government's efforts to continue to emphasize that the economic condition of Indonesia is on the right track,
06:30 growth is always above 5%,
06:33 and the political stability that you said the voters are on the right track,
06:39 what do you think? Can this be a buffer to maintain our economic growth
06:44 with the BI policy that still maintains the PI rate at 6%?
06:50 Okay, I can accept the view from the government's perspective that
06:55 so far, Indonesia's economic condition is on the right track.
07:01 But we have to remind that what we have achieved is a pass performance.
07:08 The performance in the past, maybe from 2021 to now, yesterday was 2023.
07:15 The question is, is the situation still relative, or in the term, "Citeris Paribus"?
07:22 It doesn't feel like that.
07:25 Maybe in 2023, the domestic situation was relatively controlled, relatively okay.
07:33 But in 2024, we see the narratives of various policy makers at the global level,
07:40 whether it's from World Bank, or IMF,
07:44 all of them give a kind of insinuation or view that the possibility of this year's world economy is not good.
07:53 From what we see, almost all outlooks from international institutions
07:59 give a trend of growth outlook for this year's world,
08:03 the range is between 2.7% to 3%, or there is a little 3.1%.
08:09 But that is through evaluation before the external pressures increase.
08:15 So my guess is, maybe in April, whether it's World Bank or IMF,
08:22 it will probably reduce the outlook of the world economy.
08:26 If the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,
08:32 and in other areas, it will increase.
08:36 Maybe there will be a downward trend.
08:39 Back to the domestic, we know,
08:43 in my opinion, in my feeling,
08:47 the political tensions in the country are now relatively warm.
08:52 We see from various public discussions,
08:55 all say that the election process is not over,
08:59 and there is no one party who can legally claim that they have completed the competition.
09:05 So, in my opinion, the journey is still on,
09:08 and because the journey is still on,
09:11 the degree of uncertainty is still there.
09:15 This is why Bank Indonesia always takes a very correct,
09:19 very conservative, and also very empty attitude
09:23 to maintain the level of BIRID at 6%.
09:26 Okay, so with all the data or issues that you have mentioned,
09:32 based on the global conditions,
09:35 both in the country, from the macro and micro economic side,
09:39 will the trend of BIRID itself still be at 6% level?
09:45 Or is there a chance to go back?
09:48 If you say, the world will reduce the global economic growth,
09:53 and maybe some other world financial institutions?
09:57 In the short term, at least 2-3 months ahead,
10:01 maybe the policy stance of Bank Indonesia is relatively steady,
10:06 relatively unchanged.
10:08 Because, even though the external pressure continues to threaten,
10:12 not only Indonesia, but also in several other Asian countries,
10:16 but we have luxury,
10:18 we have luxury that maybe other countries don't have,
10:21 which is we are able to manage the inflation rate well.
10:26 It is proven that inflation per January yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, was below 2.6%.
10:30 Around 2.51%, if I'm not mistaken.
10:33 January is January, or year on year.
10:35 Even at the end of last year, our inflation was very low, which was 2.61%.
10:41 Which is below the anchor or the fixed range.
10:44 So, as long as Bank Indonesia is able to be a motor,
10:49 a motor to be able to control inflation,
10:52 it is still at the target range of approximately 2.5% this year, plus or minus 1%,
10:58 and it can be achieved.
10:59 I have confidence that maybe the level of BI rate,
11:02 the first choice is to remain stable,
11:05 and then if there is an indication of the future outlook,
11:09 or the expectation that the inflation can move between approximately 2.5%,
11:13 then there is room for Bank Indonesia to lower the Bunga Acuan or BI rate.
11:19 With the note earlier, the key is that the domestic inflation is under control.
11:23 Regardless, whether the Central Bank of developed countries raises or maintains the Bunga Acuan,
11:30 but the main consideration of Bank Indonesia is how to expect domestic inflation in the future.
11:38 Okay, so how long will it take to maintain the BI rate at 6% for the business world?
11:44 What sectors will be directly affected by maintaining the Bunga Acuan?
11:49 Will it be sustainable for the sectors directly related to the Bunga Acuan?
11:56 Is there a property there, automotive, for example?
12:00 What is interesting is that maybe some people,
12:04 with the consideration that the level of the Bunga Acuan in the country is relatively high,
12:09 maybe some fund holders will still hold their funds in our financial system,
12:14 especially in the banking system.
12:16 In other words, they may slow down a little to do consumer activities.
12:22 But in general, because maybe 2.5 years ago we have relatively not done any consumer activities or spending,
12:30 it remains, whether it is the upper middle class and some lower middle class,
12:36 still have to take consumer actions or economic activities.
12:41 What is interesting is that the economic and business activities in countries with high Bunga Acuan levels
12:49 are still continuing.
12:51 One real example is America.
12:53 America's Bunga Acuan is 5.5%,
12:56 but the growth of the US economy is still able to grow positively annually.
13:01 If I'm not mistaken, last year the US economy grew 3.15% year on year.
13:07 What does it mean? It means that although the Bunga Acuan in America is high,
13:11 but the public and policy makers as well as economic actors still feel comfortable
13:17 and can accept the reality that the Bunga Acuan must be high.
13:21 With the expectation that sooner or later the Bunga Acuan policy will decline.
13:26 The same thing happens in our country, Mr. Pras.
13:29 I observed that the Bunga Acuan BI rate has been stable for about, if I'm not mistaken,
13:34 for the last 5-6 months at this 6% level.
13:37 This year alone, it has been 2 times, 2 months, it has been 2 times stable.
13:41 Last year, if I'm not mistaken, it was 4 times stable.
13:43 So, the total is 6 times.
13:45 But the economy is still rolling, Mr. Pras.
13:47 What does it mean? It means that our businessmen, our economic actors,
13:51 and we as a consumer community can accept the fact,
13:55 can accept the reality that the Bunga Acuan must be high.
13:59 But the important thing is that the inflation can be controlled properly.
14:03 So, you and I, and other audiences,
14:08 still have a level of wealth that is still well maintained.
14:13 Because we were only influenced by inflation last year.
14:17 It was very low, only 2.61%.
14:19 That's the explanation, Mr. Pras.
14:21 But lately, we know that the prices of grains, especially rice,
14:26 have experienced a significant surge.
14:28 And the average is already above the highest price.
14:31 Both premium and medium.
14:33 Will this also contribute to inflation?
14:36 Maybe in February.
14:37 Then, what about the financing sectors?
14:40 We will discuss it in the next segment, Mr. Rian.
14:42 We will be back shortly.
14:43 Yes, viewers, we will be back soon after the next segment.
14:47 (Music)
14:50 You are still watching Market Review.
15:05 We will be sharing data on the movement of Bunga Acuan Indonesia, or BIRAID.
15:11 You can see the movement from August 2023 to February 2021.
15:18 The movement started in October.
15:20 It was boosted by Bank Indonesia.
15:23 From 5.75% to 6% and continued until February 2024.
15:30 Next is the movement of inflation from August to December.
15:33 This is what Mr. Rian Kirianto has said.
15:36 It was also managed to be maintained by the government below 3%.
15:39 It was recorded at 2.61% in December.
15:42 The movement was annual.
15:44 Next is the movement of currency exchange value.
15:47 In the last few days, it was still around 15,600.
15:53 On February 21st, it was 15,658 rupiah per US dollar.
15:59 Data from Bank Indonesia.
16:01 Let's continue the discussion with Mr. Rian Kirianto.
16:04 Mr. Rian, based on the data that has been provided,
16:07 the movement of inflation and currency exchange value
16:12 which is the domain of Bank Indonesia
16:14 to determine how BIRAID will move.
16:17 What is your opinion on this?
16:19 With the level of 15,658 rupiah per dollar,
16:23 and the rate of inflation still below 3%, Mr. Rian?
16:28 That is why the decision of the Indonesian Bank's Governor's Council yesterday
16:34 to maintain BIRAID at 6%
16:37 is the main consideration, which is to maintain stability.
16:42 The movement of Bank Indonesia's pro-stability
16:45 is how the inflation is still in the corridor that is targeted,
16:50 which is 2.5%.
16:52 Then the movement of our rupiah exchange value to the US dollar,
16:57 it is not too fluctuating or not too volatile.
17:01 That is what Bank Indonesia wants as a central bank.
17:05 That is why with this 6% level,
17:07 it is expected to be able to balance the position
17:12 of the policy-making flower tribe in other countries,
17:15 especially in the United States.
17:18 Earlier we said that the Fed Fund Rate
17:21 of the flower tribe in the US is 5.5%,
17:24 in our country it is still 6%.
17:26 So at least if there is a fund holder who wants to compare
17:30 whether their choice is to keep it in the rupiah denomination
17:34 or in the US dollar denomination,
17:37 then the choice is still in favor of the rupiah.
17:39 This is what helps the stability of our rupiah exchange value.
17:44 We can imagine, Mr. Pras,
17:46 we remember maybe a month or a month and a half ago,
17:49 our rupiah currency was almost 16,000.
17:53 Yes, almost 16,000.
17:55 If I'm not mistaken, it was last December.
17:57 But with various steps taken by Bank Indonesia
18:00 as a monetary authority,
18:02 gradually, the direction of our rupiah movement
18:05 began to reach the midpoint, which is 15,500.
18:09 That yesterday was still around 15,600 per US dollar,
18:14 I think that's in the right direction.
18:17 So one of the efforts to stabilize our rupiah movement
18:24 is by maintaining the BIR rate at 6%.
18:27 Secondly, Mr. Pras has mentioned in our investment graph,
18:31 I also give an indication that the BI policy
18:34 that maintains the BIR rate at 6%
18:36 is also based on one of the considerations that
18:40 sooner or later, in March, we will enter the fasting month,
18:44 then there is the Eid al-Fitr,
18:47 where in general, seasonally or seasonally,
18:51 in April, the tendency is that our inflation direction is moving up.
18:56 Because it is accompanied by an increase in food groups,
18:59 especially rice.
19:01 We know, Mr. Pras,
19:03 the inflation growth last year was 2.61%,
19:07 that's almost 1.5%,
19:10 that was contributed by food groups.
19:13 The food group that most dominates
19:15 pushing inflation last year is rice.
19:18 We know that the price of rice, whether it's premium or non-premium,
19:22 the increase per kilogram is around 1,000 to 3,000 rupiah per kilogram.
19:27 Which is inflation.
19:29 Fortunately, some other communities do not experience inflation,
19:33 but experience deflation.
19:35 So the balancing is that we are still in the corridor
19:39 of the inflation direction that is still under control.
19:42 Okay, okay.
19:43 Now, let's talk about the condition earlier,
19:45 the inflation that is under control,
19:47 then the movement of the value of the currency itself.
19:50 How do you see the business world earlier,
19:52 with the BI effort that continues to push
19:55 credit or financing of banks to the business world,
19:58 then households.
19:59 If you say earlier, the consumption of households
20:02 is still supporting the Indonesian economy to this day, Mr. Rian.
20:06 This is very interesting, Mr. Pras.
20:09 I also continue to do analysis that
20:12 the survey results from the Bank of Indonesia,
20:15 the survey can be related to the consumer trust index,
20:18 the trust index of businessmen or businessmen,
20:21 then the retail sales index,
20:24 all of them are moving up.
20:26 Moving up.
20:27 What does it mean?
20:29 It means that both from the consumer side
20:31 and from the business side as a producer,
20:34 it is certain that in the future,
20:36 at least 3-6 months ahead,
20:38 the condition of the Indonesian economy will remain good.
20:42 This makes me personally do a re-analysis.
20:47 Why is that?
20:49 This is the result of a survey that we can hold,
20:53 we can dominate,
20:55 we can trust,
20:56 because the one who did the survey was the Bank of Indonesia.
20:58 Maybe there is a kind of decoupling, Mr. Pras.
21:02 Decoupling is when
21:04 the current and not yet final political activities
21:08 can be balanced,
21:10 can be balanced with the economy itself.
21:13 The businessmen still do business,
21:15 we as a consumer community
21:17 still do consumer activities,
21:20 still shop,
21:21 on the side of political activities,
21:24 it still goes as usual.
21:27 This is what I call decoupling.
21:29 That is when two activities
21:31 move together,
21:33 without one with the other,
21:35 the term is distorted or disturbing.
21:38 That is the fact we face.
21:40 Does this reflect
21:42 what is the term of the community
21:45 that is more political or economic?
21:47 Yes, I think so.
21:49 It means that those who do business still do business,
21:51 we still do our job,
21:54 those from political elite friends
21:56 also still do political activities,
21:58 but the activity is still on their own.
22:01 Okay, from the consumer side,
22:03 how about the business sector, UMKM,
22:05 which has been a buffer all this time
22:07 with the economic pressure
22:09 and has always been a proof of history
22:11 that they can also support our economic wheel.
22:14 The President has pushed for a breakthrough
22:16 and a strategy to increase the credit capital
22:18 for the Bank of Indonesia.
22:20 So that the UMKM can also grow more.
22:22 How do you see the credit capital of the UMKM
22:25 which has been still low,
22:27 what is the percentage like this, Mr. Arian?
22:29 Yes, this is interesting.
22:31 So if we talk or discuss
22:34 how to push the strategy
22:36 to develop the UMKM forward,
22:38 it's like we're talking
22:40 in a novel title,
22:42 Never Ending Story.
22:44 A story that never ends.
22:46 The government, starting from the President,
22:48 gave an indication that
22:50 in terms of industry or in terms of aggregate,
22:53 2024, if I'm not mistaken,
22:55 that the portion of the banking financing
22:58 to the UMKM sector must be at least 30%.
23:01 That's in terms of industry.
23:03 Therefore, maybe from the authority's side,
23:06 they must prepare a kind of policy.
23:10 The policy is this,
23:12 incentive and disincentive.
23:14 Incentive and disincentive are like this,
23:17 for financial institutions that are able to distribute
23:20 financing to the UMKM sector,
23:22 more than the portion set by the bank
23:27 and approved by the financial services authority.
23:29 Maybe the authority can give incentives,
23:32 whatever the form.
23:34 Then if the bank does have the instruments
23:38 to support the UMKM through financing,
23:42 it turns out that the portion of financing to the UMKM
23:44 is relatively small according to the authority.
23:47 Maybe it needs to be given a disincentive.
23:49 What is the existence of incentives and disincentives?
23:52 I think the authorities can think about it.
23:57 This is like what Bank Indonesia did, Mr. Pras.
24:00 We know that the bank has two strikers.
24:06 One is the policy that uses the flow of the flower family,
24:11 namely the B-rate.
24:12 The other is the macro-prudential policy
24:15 that is encouraged to encourage growth.
24:18 That is the pro-growth policy.
24:20 In my opinion, for banks that finance
24:23 to some economic sectors that are the choice of Bank Indonesia,
24:27 the bank gets incentives,
24:29 which is a relief for the minimum Giro ratio.
24:34 Incentives like this can be created by the OJK
24:39 as well as the BI has done the same thing.
24:42 For what?
24:43 To drive, to accelerate the portion of financing to the UMKM
24:49 to be at least 30% in aggregate.
24:52 Okay, Mr. Pras.
24:53 So there are many ways to increase the business sector in Indonesia,
24:58 UMKM, with the policy of the money,
25:01 from the macro-prudential side,
25:03 even by using the flow of the flower family.
25:06 But hopefully this can be a really solutive solution
25:10 for Indonesia's economic development in 2024.
25:13 Mr. Rian, thank you very much for your time and sharing.
25:16 Okay, you're welcome.
25:17 Congratulations on continuing your activities.
25:19 Again, greetings, Mr. Rian.
25:20 Okay, Mr. Mirsa,
25:23 I have been with you for an hour in the market review.
25:25 I am Prasetya Wibowo,
25:26 with the Labor Department, on duty.
25:28 Thank you and see you.
25:30 Thank you.
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