كيف تُسعر الأسواق استمرار التوترات الجيوسياسية في مضيق باب المندب؟
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00:00 We are discussing this topic and we are welcoming George Khoury, the head of the CFI research and education department.
00:10 Welcome Mr. Khoury.
00:12 We are moving away from geopolitical tensions at the regional and international level.
00:20 We are talking about the direction of central banks in the next phase,
00:24 which is the one that has the most economic data on inflation and unemployment rates,
00:30 and to what extent the intensification will remain in your estimation.
00:34 Good morning and thank you for the invitation.
00:38 As for the central banks, we can divide them into two parts.
00:43 We can divide them from one side, the United States, the European region and Britain,
00:49 and on the other side, or the other aspect of the monetary policies and the usage method,
00:54 which is Asia, specifically China and Japan.
00:57 We are seeing that this year there is a decrease in the interest rates for the United States and the European region and Britain.
01:05 Most likely, we will see a decrease that will be faster for Europe and Britain than for the United States.
01:14 In contrast to what we have seen in the past year and a little while ago, when we were seeing the United States
01:19 is what was driving this wave.
01:21 Now we are seeing a decline in the economy, whether it is due to the solution for Britain,
01:27 or in the share sales that we are seeing in the United States.
01:30 This week I have a very important indicator, the Purchasing Manager Index,
01:35 which might show us the decline that we are starting to see in the economy,
01:40 regardless of the profits of the companies that we are seeing in the United States,
01:44 which are doing much better than expected.
01:46 But I don't think this will last for a very long time.
01:50 Once we see the profits of the companies gradually starting to decline,
01:55 we will start to see that there is more easing and easing of the monetary policies more and more.
02:02 The United States will be driving a very big wave.
02:06 George, we have seen some figures, especially in terms of the prices of the products that came out higher than expected.
02:14 Today, the fear related to the strength of the American economy,
02:18 and this is what we have seen, how the stock market has moved,
02:21 and specifically here we are talking about the US dollar,
02:23 which we have seen this direct movement, which may lead to a rise in the strength of the American economy,
02:31 in light of these figures and data that were released recently.
02:34 But as you pointed out, we still have many figures to monitor for the economy.
02:39 That's right. As for the United States, if we look at the past week,
02:45 we were seeing that the currency sales were returning to very low levels.
02:49 But what is calling for a slowdown and a return on the US dollar,
02:55 which will be supported by the possibility that there will be a reduction in interest rates much faster,
03:00 because the economy may begin to be affected gradually.
03:04 And then there will be, as you said, changes in the prices of the producers, which are showing us a rise.
03:10 If I want to add up, changes in consumer prices, changes in the prices of the producers.
03:14 Consumer prices have been seeing a rise for two months, even if it is a small rise,
03:19 not a very strong and fast rise, but we are seeing a rise in inflation and stickiness,
03:24 and the inflation is sticky until we start to touch it gradually.
03:27 This calls for more tightening and a higher US dollar,
03:32 and a reduction in the US dollar index, which is not being translated at the moment.
03:37 Because some markets are still trying to reduce the interest rate by about four times,
03:43 not as we were seeing in the federal dot plot.
03:47 We will make sure of this this week, on Wednesday, at the FOMC meeting.
03:52 Based on this, we will also start to see the members and most of the members,
03:57 on what basis this voting has happened in terms of interest rates.
04:01 I feel that we will start to see a reduction in the excitement that exists in terms of the economic movement
04:07 and in terms of the increases in the US dollar index.
04:10 And maybe we will start to see a diversification.
04:13 We will have to start to see the governor's environment, to what extent the diversification is now.
04:17 And not just a shift to the big US indexes, especially those supported by technology.
04:22 No, there must be more and more diversification, because the risks have started to rise gradually.
04:27 True. In terms of risks, to what extent do markets classify and estimate the risks in the region,
04:32 compared to the JCCC fluctuations, especially in the Mendeb bubble?
04:36 This may also accelerate the inflation rate,
04:40 considering that the shipping costs are also subject to increases.
04:45 Development on the ground in Ukraine for the benefit of Russia and support from the West to support Ukraine.
04:50 All these factors, to what extent can they affect the course of events?
04:55 I don't think it has a very strong effect. Why?
04:58 The US looks at the investment behavior over the past year and a half.
05:03 When we first saw it, the crisis started between Russia and Ukraine.
05:06 Unfortunately, we started to see it again in October last year in the Arab region.
05:11 From then until now, we have seen a price rise to the news, maybe in a day or two.
05:16 Then there is a focus on indicators, directions and economies
05:23 on the investment in the rising wave, which is supported by artificial intelligence and technology.
05:29 So now, if you want, for the risks, the risks are very high.
05:33 But this is not what is being advertised in the markets,
05:36 which calls for a higher risk management for investors in the reserves and even in the ETFs.
05:43 So here we are seeing between a week and a week of changes in terms of geopolitical tensions.
05:50 A week we see that I have conditions improving, and a week we see more and more tensions.
05:56 This will not cause many fluctuations in the current situation,
06:00 if we do not see even more and more fluctuations.
06:03 As for the oil supply, this is also a topic we have been talking about for three or four months.
06:08 The movement for investors, these news do not affect much, I do not have much volatility.
06:15 Since I have an alternative, as they say, I have other extensions.
06:20 Now, this will affect insurance and other things, but the prices in the markets have really become like prices.
06:28 Thank you very much, Hajar Shoury, and you are the head of the research and education department at CFI.
06:33 You were with us from Dubai.