ما هي سيناريوهات "يوم القيامة" التي وضعها الفدرالي الأميركي لعام 2024؟
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00:00 Every year, the US Federal Reserve implements a test on US banks to measure the strength of these banks in the face of financial crisis or even a sudden financial crisis.
00:15 In this test, it assumes many negative and pessimistic scenarios. If these scenarios are met, they are called on this day, the Day of Resurrection.
00:24 What are the scenarios for the Day of Resurrection of the US Federal Reserve in 2024?
00:30 After the financial crisis we witnessed in 2008, especially after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US Federal Reserve began implementing a test to measure the strength of its US banks on 32 banks, each with assets exceeding $100 billion.
00:45 The test relies on two main equations. The first is the capital ratio of the assets that are at risk. According to the Basel III Treaty, which was updated after the financial crisis in 2008, this ratio should be 4.5% for each bank.
01:04 The average of these banks is 14%. The second ratio is the average capital ratio of the assets, which should be 3% as it is lower than the US banks.
01:20 According to the Basel III Treaty, this ratio is 6%. This means that the US banks are protected from the collapse, but not from bankruptcy if these scenarios are met.
01:33 What are the scenarios for 2024? First, the unemployment rate will rise to 10%, which is the same as in 2023.
01:42 It is also worth noting that the unemployment rate in the US is 3.7%. The local income is 8.5%, but today the local income, according to the latest data, has risen to 3.3%.
01:56 The inflation rate has also slowed to 1.3%, which is below the targeted levels, which is 2%. Today, the inflation rate has slowed to 3.1% of the highest levels in the summer of 2022.
02:12 The interest rates for the 10-year bonds have also fallen to 0.8%. The financial fundamentals collapse scenarios have also fallen to 36%.
02:26 In the scenario of 2023, this ratio was 38%. The fall in the prices of commercial real estate is 40%, just like the scenario of 2023. The price of Asom has also fallen by 55%.
02:40 In the scenario of 2023, this ratio was 45%. As we mentioned, this test is being implemented on the largest 32 banks in the US.
02:53 In 2023, the fears were raised and the "Egyptian Voice" was mentioned. But what was the result of the US federal test in 2023?
03:04 The bank lost 541 billion dollars in the event of the implementation of this scenario. But even after this loss, it will still have more than double the amount of capital required, which is the amount that the US federal funds put in the Basel III Treaty after the financial crisis that we saw in 2008.
03:31 What distinguishes the tests of this year and the previous year is that they come in conjunction with the crisis in the banking sector.
03:42 In 2023, we saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. But this year, these fears have returned to the horizon, especially after the New York Community Bank announced that it lost 185 million dollars in commercial real estate loans and raised the specialties to more than 500 million dollars.
04:07 Deutsche Bank also raised the specialties to protect against losses from these loans to 123 million euros out of 26 million euros due to its loss in commercial real estate loans and also due to the weakening of the US commercial real estate sector.
04:28 But the amount of commercial real estate loans required by the United States now amounts to 2.7 trillion dollars, 560 billion dollars of which are due in 2025.