'This is a kind of compensation for not getting a formal invitation to join NATO'
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00:00 Well, the details are going to be announced later today, but what we know is that this
00:05 is a kind of compensation really for not getting a formal invitation to join NATO at the NATO
00:11 summit last year, which Ukraine was very disappointed about. And Volodymyr Zelensky continues to
00:17 voice Kiev's frustration at not being formally invited to join NATO, at not being given a
00:23 timetable for when Ukraine might be able to join the alliance. And of course, these bilateral
00:30 deals, one was already signed with the United Kingdom, these ones with France and Germany
00:35 and perhaps some other EU countries are expected to be along the same lines, are nothing like
00:40 NATO's Article 5. They're not a commitment by these countries to send troops in to come
00:45 to Ukraine's aid, but they are a sort of formalisation of the continuation of military support for
00:52 Ukraine in terms of arms supplies and financing Ukraine's war effort. And although there are
00:59 no binding clauses, they're not expected to be anything binding anyway in these agreements,
01:05 they are thought of as strong guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine would like to call them security
01:11 guarantees. The United Kingdom preferred to talk about security assurances. But in any
01:16 case, the feeling is that these countries will adhere to them as much as their military
01:21 industrial complexes permit them to do so, as much as they can produce the weapons and
01:26 munitions necessary, because they see it as being in their own interests. I mean, if you
01:31 look at all recent analyses by experts about what European countries need to do in order
01:37 to shore up their own defences against the possibility of a Russian attack, the amount
01:42 of money that needs to be spent on that, it's very clear that the much cheaper option is
01:47 supporting the Ukrainians and letting the Ukrainians do the work and hoping that Russia
01:51 never gets to a point where it would feel strong enough to want to have any kind of
01:57 military action elsewhere in Europe other than in Ukraine. The idea and the message
02:02 that the Ukrainians are definitely trying to sell to all of their Western partners is
02:05 let us defeat the Russians before you have to.
02:09 Michael, over this trip comes as fierce fighting is reported this morning in Africa, in and
02:14 around there. What is the latest in terms of the situation on the ground?
02:19 Well, yes, defeating the Russians is not really what the Ukrainians seem to be doing at this
02:25 very moment. They're very much on the back foot, especially in Avdiivka. I mean, it has
02:29 to be said they've held out in Avdiivka, which is a town very, very close to Donetsk, which
02:34 is the largest Russian held city in eastern Ukraine. For more than 10 years, actually,
02:40 the Russians have been attacking that city. And only in recent months, they've really
02:44 made inroads. But now they are inside the town. It's much smaller than Bakhmut, which
02:50 Avdiivka is often compared to. The situation is similar. The residential areas of the town
02:55 are pretty much destroyed. The Ukrainians now seem to be surrounded in -- well, no,
03:03 not quite surrounded, but close to being surrounded.
03:06 They say that they have started using their secondary routes of communication after the
03:12 Russians crossed the main road that goes into the town from the town's main factory. The
03:18 town's main factory, which is a coke and chemicals plant -- it was the largest in Europe -- provides
03:22 pretty strong defenses for Ukrainian soldiers if they want to hole up in there. And that's
03:27 where we might be hearing comparisons with Azovstal in Mariupol, that huge factory there
03:32 that Ukrainian forces continued to defend for months after the rest of the city had
03:37 fallen. But they might be surrounded there as well. It might even be happening as we
03:42 speak because the latest information I have is from yesterday evening, actually.
03:47 Ukrainian soldiers there describe the situation in Avdiivka as hell. They say that they are
03:51 inflicting heavy losses on the Russians, including, according to one fighter from the 3rd Assault
03:57 Brigade, record losses in one day to have inflicted on the Russian forces. But those
04:02 losses notwithstanding, the Russians massively outnumber the Ukrainians, both in terms of
04:07 manpower and in terms of firepower. And so there's a great deal of pressure and a great
04:12 deal of calls actually coming even from inside Ukraine for the Ukrainian forces to withdraw
04:17 from Avdiivka before it's too late.
04:20 They certainly have already affected some tactical withdrawals from certain positions.
04:25 They say that's to more advantageous positions in order to counterattack. But the likelihood
04:30 of success of those counterattacks, absent massive reinforcements and absent, of course,
04:35 the munitions that the Ukrainians desperately need but that they can't get, mainly because
04:40 the money from the US has been held up, it doesn't look like their chances are very good.