- What's behind the PSU rally?
- What led to #BharatForge's Q3 results?
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- What led to #BharatForge's Q3 results?
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
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TVTranscript
00:00:00 Pressure out there.
00:00:02 A very good afternoon to you, Neeraj.
00:00:03 Thank you for having me on the show.
00:00:04 It's always a pleasure.
00:00:05 Absolutely.
00:00:06 The Nifty hasn't done much, but otherwise it's chaos and mayhem all around.
00:00:11 We spoke last Monday also, Neeraj.
00:00:14 I said that the VIX is elevated.
00:00:19 Two things had to happen.
00:00:20 Either the market goes down or the VIX goes down.
00:00:22 The VIX didn't go up, the market went down.
00:00:25 And there were no apparent event risks left on the horizon.
00:00:29 Credit policy discounted, Federal Reserve Meeting discounted, nothing major.
00:00:33 So the VIX has finally taken a stole.
00:00:36 The dollar index continues to be on the strong side, Neeraj.
00:00:40 So that's another point of pressure.
00:00:42 And like I think you also mentioned, I think there needs to be a reality check.
00:00:47 The laws of gravity need to catch up because some of these stocks are going simply berserk
00:00:51 all over the place.
00:00:52 I think they've discovered gold and not even silver, diamonds in the mine.
00:00:56 So somewhere we needed a decent time price correction.
00:01:00 We're riding on top of a phenomenal move.
00:01:03 I mean, you can't run two marathons in a row, right?
00:01:05 So you had to take a breather and that's what's happening.
00:01:08 And we're seeing the move too fast.
00:01:10 I think that's where it's been hit and like, I mean, if the results are bad, you're slaughtered.
00:01:15 So frankly speaking, it is a mid-cap and small-cap which have been battered more, like you mentioned, Neeraj.
00:01:21 Bank Nifty, we've been down for five weeks, this is the sixth week.
00:01:25 I think HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis SBI, I think these stock, bank stock rated would be what, 70-80% in the Bank Nifty.
00:01:36 So I think HDFC Bank has managed to sink everything as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned.
00:01:42 So frankly speaking, absolutely on point.
00:01:44 Nifty hasn't gone so bad, but markets were in complete chaos.
00:01:50 So I guess we needed something like this.
00:01:53 So it's going to take time to play out.
00:01:55 I'm not so bearish yet.
00:01:56 Important levels haven't been broken, Neeraj, and things aren't so bad.
00:02:00 But yes, a reality check is what I would say this is.
00:02:03 A reality check is the theme of the day.
00:02:06 And NHPC is another company that seems to be getting a good dose of it.
00:02:11 Let's pull up that stock results out.
00:02:13 And then you're seeing that sharp fall off the cliff, down 15%, just as I've been seeing in the last couple of minutes,
00:02:19 has gone from a 10% to a 15% cut.
00:02:22 The first numbers that we have, revenues are at 2,055 crores versus 2,582 year on year.
00:02:30 So drop over there.
00:02:31 Net profit has also slid.
00:02:34 And you have that figure coming in at 628 crores versus 776.
00:02:39 Look at the cut on the EBITDA, 57% down at 720 or 721 crores versus 1,690 crores.
00:02:48 Another one of those favored golden boys and golden girls of PSU companies which had run off.
00:02:56 Margins have also actually been slashed quite a bit, more than half from what I can see at first cut.
00:03:03 So yeah, you're seeing that pain play out as well.
00:03:05 Sudeep Bandopadhyay also joining us on the show today.
00:03:07 He's Group Chairman, Indy Trade Capital.
00:03:09 Very good afternoon to you, Sudeep, but not a very good afternoon for some stocks and companies.
00:03:14 I'll quickly pull up the railway pack as well because they're feeling this shared pain all over of,
00:03:22 you know, what's happening with public sector owned companies and RVNL down about 9% right now.
00:03:27 But the whole lot, rail tell, let's see what's happening with Jupiter Wagon, TTAGAR, TexMaco.
00:03:34 Sudeep, what do you reckon?
00:03:36 You know, we've been having this sort of debate in the newsroom about whether this is a short term reality check cut after run up of valuations.
00:03:46 And then you will see some of these companies carry on on their uptrend,
00:03:50 considering it's a big focus in terms of government policy, or is there more pain left?
00:03:55 Well, I have been maintaining my view that some of these PSU,
00:03:59 particularly in the defence and railway space, have really run ahead of the ground reality.
00:04:07 You know, I'm not doubting the intention of the government or the initiatives taken by the government,
00:04:12 as well as the order wins or the business wins by these companies.
00:04:16 They are clear and they will definitely yield results over a period of time.
00:04:21 But the key is the results will come over a period of time.
00:04:24 And I think the market was factoring in things a little too early.
00:04:29 And that is unrealistic. You know, defence car company getting contract for submarines.
00:04:34 I mean, you know, one has to realise that the submarine manufacturing is a long process.
00:04:38 It takes multiple years for this to happen.
00:04:41 Now, if you start factoring in that earning and discounting it and giving a valuation,
00:04:46 I think that's a bit unrealistic and that is what was happening.
00:04:50 So, time-wise correction was warranted and I'm pretty sure that that's what is happening.
00:04:57 Or even if it doesn't happen now, it still covers tomorrow, it will happen at some time,
00:05:02 because eventually it has to catch up. The reality has to catch up with the valuation.
00:05:07 And that has to happen somewhere. These are good companies.
00:05:11 There are a lot of important things, good things, which have happened to these companies over the last 5, 7, 10 years.
00:05:16 And they are on a good trajectory. There is tremendous government support.
00:05:20 Their environment is right. But the valuations were not right.
00:05:24 And that will have to get, you know, kind of resolved at some point of time or the other.
00:05:28 And probably that's what is happening.
00:05:30 So, Deep, beyond PSUs, there are a clutch of other stocks which on poor numbers are coming off as well.
00:05:38 We are at the fag end of the earning season, I understand.
00:05:41 But do you anticipate the pain at the broader end of the spectrum to worsen?
00:05:45 I mean, you know, the interest around India seems to be alive and kicking,
00:05:49 if almost any sell-side brokerage is to be believed.
00:05:52 Neeraj, not really. The way I look at it, I think, fag end of the earning season,
00:05:58 normally companies come out who don't have anything good to talk about.
00:06:02 I mean, this is a very general statement. It may not be specific to any company.
00:06:06 But that's the reality. And, you know, I don't want to extrapolate that into the future.
00:06:12 I think, you know, some of the companies have come up with results, like Tata Power and all,
00:06:16 come up with results which are much below the market expectation.
00:06:19 There is a rationale for that.
00:06:21 But whatever we want to say, the reality is there was a little bit of a flop in the market
00:06:29 and probably that will get taken out at some point of time.
00:06:32 After such an humongous rally, both in India as well as globally,
00:06:37 I think a bit of correction, a bit of consolidation, a bit of profit-taking,
00:06:40 whatever name we want to call it, is far from the course.
00:06:43 I don't think we should get too perturbed with this.
00:06:46 Fundamentals of the market, the structure of the market hasn't changed.
00:06:50 I strongly believe that we will maintain the positive bias in the medium to long term.
00:06:56 Short term corrections, short term, you know, this volatility is bound to be there in the market
00:07:03 the way it is poised.
00:07:05 Let's talk about, you know, you mentioned Sudeep Tata Power and let's see what's happened to Tata Power.
00:07:11 That is our talk of the day, not in a very positive way.
00:07:15 But that entire pack, even in SJV and down 20%, and I mentioned that in my opening.
00:07:20 So the energy space is seeing a lot of pain, but so is Tata Power.
00:07:24 The shares have fallen after the company reported muted post-tax profits in Q3.
00:07:30 Now, earlier in the day, we spoke with Praveer Sinha, the MD and CEO,
00:07:33 about the company's Q3 performance and outlook. Listen into what he said.
00:07:38 We need to look at the results that consistency is coming in the company.
00:07:44 And second is that whatever we are doing, it will be sustained going forward.
00:07:51 So that's the good part of the result.
00:07:55 Also, the important part of the result is that we are seeing that our performance is now tilting more towards our core business.
00:08:06 All our existing operations, whether it is our generation or it is our transmission distribution renewables,
00:08:14 have yielded good results.
00:08:16 And this time, nearly 71% of our profit has come from the core business,
00:08:21 which we expect in the future quarters will move to 80 to 90%.
00:08:27 Secondly, what is also important is that many of the changes that we have made is stabilizing our operations.
00:08:37 And this will ensure that there is a much better and consistent performance in the long run.
00:08:44 So it's a very satisfying quarter as far as we are concerned.
00:08:48 Satisfying for Praveer Sinha, but not for the investors of the Tata Power stock.
00:08:52 For sure, near its day's lows at this point, nearly 6.5-7% down.
00:08:58 Hemen Kapadia, do you think there is a possibility of a bounce back here on Tata Power?
00:09:06 I think, Amarnath, from a very near-term point of view, I think it could take some time.
00:09:12 But the bigger picture remains un-epivocally bullish.
00:09:15 I don't think anybody bothers much about the bigger picture.
00:09:19 But support comes in around 360. So we are not very far away from there, Amarnath.
00:09:24 So 360, 340. I think 360 should provide some cushion for a recovery.
00:09:29 Sustainable at this point of time? Not sure. But I think 360 should provide support for a bounce.
00:09:35 So, very quickly, before we take that break, on Tata Power or some of the power companies,
00:09:40 because it is believed that these are the last bastions of growth.
00:09:43 Somehow, Tata Power has kind of failed. You answered that briefly.
00:09:46 You reckon that there will be more pain in store?
00:09:49 Not much. I think the coal prices have come off.
00:09:53 And Tata Power, there is a combination of Indonesian coal as well as local coal.
00:09:57 The coal realizations are down. And I think predominantly that's the reason why Tata Power,
00:10:02 the profit and the margins were down.
00:10:05 As far as some of the other power companies are concerned, like NTPC, are pretty confident and bullish.
00:10:11 And I think fundamentally, the medium-term power sector is a great place to be in.
00:10:17 OK. We come back and we try and talk about the commentary that is coming from one of the auto ancillaries,
00:10:25 which is Bharat Forge, wherein they have cut what they would do in terms of growth for Q4
00:10:31 and further into FY25, which is where the stock is down 11%.
00:10:35 We'll get the management as well. Stay tuned to NDTV Profit. We'll be right back.
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00:14:05 Quick check on the markets and the largest gain in the bank Nifty, I would reckon,
00:14:10 nearly 2% down, even as you are seeing that ongoing profit booking.
00:14:16 But more than the Nifty and the Sensex, one would reckon that the broader markets are seeing a tumble this afternoon.
00:14:22 Let's pull up Bharat Forge and that statement from Baba Kalyani that you're seeing on your screens.
00:14:28 Perhaps one of the reasons why the stock is feeling pain, a statement from Baba Kalyani talking about
00:14:35 how growth momentum will moderate in both domestic and export markets across industries,
00:14:41 looking into Q4 and ahead on FY25.
00:14:45 He says, "Our endeavor will be to outperform the market driven by our diversified business mix."
00:14:52 But the outlook, he's saying, will be muted or to specifically quote him, "Growth momentum will moderate."
00:14:59 Hemin, a quick take from you on Bharat Forge.
00:15:02 Bharat Forge is one of the better looking stocks, frankly speaking.
00:15:09 And we have seen it actually post a fresh all-time high yesterday and today.
00:15:16 And now it's virtually fallen off a cliff. So it's a bit perplexing.
00:15:21 1300 was important, 1180 is important. I'm saying both because in the past 10, everything has gone for a toss.
00:15:29 We've seen huge volumes. I think it's volume.
00:15:33 We still have half an hour left and volumes are more than 40 lakhs in the cash market in NSE.
00:15:40 We're not very far away from supports. Support comes in at around 1126 and the intraday low is 1131.
00:15:47 So I say for the time being, it's going to take a breather over here.
00:15:50 But yes, if it ends, OK, we're on the week. It's a little too early to take that call.
00:15:55 But it ends here like this. It's a huge downward bar reversal on the weekly chart.
00:15:59 So I'd say a panic seller seems to be petering off out of.
00:16:04 OK, well, let's talk to Amit Kalyani, joint MD of Bharat Forge, who joins us right now on the show.
00:16:08 Amit, good having you. Thanks for taking the time out. Neeraj here.
00:16:12 Hi Neeraj.
00:16:13 Hi. Well, I think the statement around what could happen in quarter four and FY25 seems to have spooked the markets more than the performance.
00:16:23 Amit, what's changed in this landscape for you guys to be cautious about the quarter four after having what has arguably been not such a bad the first nine months?
00:16:35 So what's changing?
00:16:36 I think we've had a good nine months. Our nine month profits are almost equal to last four years profits.
00:16:42 And, you know, for quarter four will also be good.
00:16:44 But I think, you know, if you look at the end markets that we saw and the end geographies that we supply into, there is a lot of stress and there is a lot of uncertainty in those markets.
00:16:58 Many of the markets are starting to slow down, show signs of stress.
00:17:03 And, you know, they have all kinds of issues, right, from geopolitical issues, political issues, financial issues, other issues in those markets.
00:17:13 And I think we need to be cognizant and be responsible in communicating to the market and to our stakeholders and not just always paint a rosy picture.
00:17:22 And I think we always look at giving our stakeholders a slightly longer term view rather than a short term view.
00:17:31 You know, we've gone through these cycles many, many times and we've always come out stronger through these cycles.
00:17:37 In this cycle, particularly, we have three verticals which are brand new, which is our industrial casting vertical, which is our aerospace vertical and our defense vertical,
00:17:48 which are unhindered and which will continue to provide us a lot of growth momentum.
00:17:53 And they also have a lot of export business. So I think overall, as a company, we will do well.
00:17:58 We will grow with double digits in spite of the headwinds that we see. Hopefully, you know, post-election, we should start seeing a lot more clarity on, you know, reform and capital formation in India,
00:18:13 which will lead to, you know, demand for our kind of products.
00:18:17 But I think one should be cautious because when you look at what's happening globally, especially in Europe, I mean, there is no doubt that there is a lot of pressure.
00:18:27 So, Amit, is this some signs of maybe client conversations the way they may have happened?
00:18:35 And I love the statement. In fact, both me and Tamanna, I love the statement that you made that it's responsible and a part of a large leader like you to tell it out to investors,
00:18:44 not just of your company, but people who are watching economy about what's happening.
00:18:48 So my question, therefore, is, are these client conversations that are talking about maybe some stress coming in as the year rolls on?
00:18:56 And is this predominantly global in nature? Because the hope is that India still, I mean, if the RBI is to be believed, it's right, RBI has to be heard, 7% growth for FY25.
00:19:05 That's probably not a bad scenario to be in.
00:19:08 That's a great scenario to be in. In fact, I think that whatever pressure that we see will be transitory, will be short and will allow us great new growth opportunities.
00:19:21 With a strong balance sheet, with strong execution capability, I think we stand only to gain from these adverse situations outside.
00:19:29 But it's going to be a little bit of time for the, let's say, the proverbial, let's say, for it to hit the bank, if you want to call it that.
00:19:43 Meanwhile, Q4 is not bad, but I'm still a little suspect or skeptical about next year.
00:19:52 Although we will grow, I think the underlying markets are not going to be as strong as everybody wants to believe.
00:19:58 Got it. These are tall stories.
00:20:01 I mean, look at China, for example. You know, even China, sorry, Neeraj.
00:20:05 No, please continue.
00:20:06 If you look at what's happening in China, the bad debt situation in China, it's like an onion being peeled.
00:20:12 More and more layers and more and more red layers are coming out.
00:20:15 And red ink and bad news. So, China being a big growth driver for the world economy, I think those days are over.
00:20:23 China for China now. And what happens with that is India is going to become a big growth driver.
00:20:29 And 7% growth next year, if that's forecast, that only has to accelerate in order to provide overall growth for the markets.
00:20:38 We'll come back to this piece as well. But just in just to talk about what you've done in the quarter, what you could do in Q4.
00:20:47 And here's my question. When I look at what you've done, Amit, not just in this year, but since maybe the March 2022 quarter,
00:20:56 you're probably sitting at the highest EBITDA margins. So, you've done commendably well on that front.
00:21:02 Revenue numbers are looking OK relative to maybe the rest of the industry looking very good.
00:21:06 Now, in a slowdown scenario, potentially slowing down scenario of FY25, are these manageable?
00:21:14 And of course, what led to this kind of growth that you've seen in Q3?
00:21:17 I see what has led to this growth is actually increase in our components business, increase in our industrial business, increase in our defense business.
00:21:29 Please remember that our oil and gas exports are down two thirds. In spite of that, we are growing.
00:21:35 So, some of these markets will come back, some markets will go down. So, overall, it may end up balancing each other and we will still continue growing.
00:21:43 I think profit outlook for FY25 will be higher than FY24. All I'm saying is that the magnitude of jump will not be as much.
00:21:52 Hi Amit, Manna here. And I really must reiterate what Neeraj said.
00:21:57 I really, really appreciate the management coming out and saying clearly that this is how we see things panning out.
00:22:03 We don't want to paint a rosy picture. It's rare in these times. So, kudos for that.
00:22:09 Having said that, you also go on to say that while external circumstances may seem to be negative, demand may moderate, etc.
00:22:18 You will outpace the industry. So, let's get into a bit of detail on that. How exactly do you think that will be achievable?
00:22:26 And can you set any guidance on that end?
00:22:30 So, in terms of guidance, I'd say that high single to low double digit is where I see our growth next year.
00:22:38 Now, if we have some significant new wins in any of our defense or other businesses, that will give it an additional boost.
00:22:51 But that's where I see it. One flip side that I see is that in a market that goes down, sometimes costs also come down.
00:22:59 So, profitability can have a positive impact as well. But that remains to be seen.
00:23:06 Overall, I would say that we're well placed. All the new verticals that we're in, which is defense, industrials and aerospace,
00:23:17 are seeing high double digit growth. And we expect that to continue. This is very profitable growth.
00:23:23 And it will allow us to offset a lot of the other reduction as well.
00:23:30 So, I'm not pessimistic about the year. All I'm saying is that I'm being realistic.
00:23:37 Do you see your India focus increasing? You explained it.
00:23:42 Absolutely. Actually, the way we've started classifying our manufacturing now is India manufacturing versus global manufacturing.
00:23:51 And India manufacturing is going to be our biggest growth driver going forward.
00:23:56 If you look at the casting business that we've bought, the industrial forging business that we bought,
00:24:01 that added almost close to a thousand crores of capacity to our company.
00:24:08 And that can double in the next two to three years based on just us getting more customers with the existing capacity that we have on hand.
00:24:20 On the word on oil and gas, and the exports having come off so much,
00:24:26 the recency of the financial health of some of the global oil and gas majors seems to be very good.
00:24:33 Do you expect a turnaround? Because everybody from Chevron to Exxon to whatever else is posting record high profits.
00:24:39 Do you think there could be a turnaround in the corner?
00:24:41 See, what is happening, Neeraj, is the kind of sector that we're in, which is the shale oil sector.
00:24:47 There are a lot of small companies which are exploration E&P companies.
00:24:53 And these E&P companies in the low interest cost regime used to drill multiple wells and explore and cap them when not needed.
00:25:04 Now, with interest rates being what they are, they are not doing that, let's say, exploratory drilling and exploring as much.
00:25:13 So they're only building capacity when it's needed.
00:25:17 Plus, if you see in the US, the transportation infrastructure for oil and gas, especially for gas, is not good.
00:25:24 And even the export infrastructure, it's only now being put in place.
00:25:29 I think these two will also provide a flip for the overall oil and gas sector once it comes into place.
00:25:35 OK, one small follow up from my end on the other space. I remember sometime around September or October,
00:25:45 your peers and I'd ask this to you as well, but your peers had mentioned from the forging side, at least,
00:25:51 companies in the forging space had mentioned that Europe is going to see a lot of replacement demand come in on the forging side.
00:25:57 And therefore, the outlook on forging demand will not look weak.
00:26:02 Now, US, we've seen some bit of weakness. You're talking about how Europe business looks slightly wobbly.
00:26:07 What could happen on the auto side for you as well as a company or for 2024?
00:26:12 The Pascar side in Europe is OK. The truck side is definitely slow and it is going to be slow this year.
00:26:19 There's no doubt about it. Got it. I mean, even if you look at Volvo's own, you know, or any of the other large OEMs,
00:26:28 they've all talked about this, that there will be a slowdown. But, you know, slowdown is great for us because it allows us to gain market share,
00:26:35 shift new business here. We've always come out stronger out of the slowdown. So it's not something to be worried about.
00:26:42 Got it. My last question, excuse me for not doing the numbers offhand, but what about what about leverage and interest costs?
00:26:51 Because they seem to be getting pushed further and further with the rate cuts. Is that an issue at all?
00:26:56 So we are we are repaying between this year and next year about 1000 crores of debt.
00:27:01 And we still have about 22 to 2500 crores of cash on the balance sheet. So we're absolutely in great shape.
00:27:08 OK, great. Thank you. OK, Amit, thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us.
00:27:13 All the best. That's Bharat Forge. And Sudeep, before we take that break, have to get you in on this conversation as well.
00:27:23 Here's one large auto ancillary saying that growth could be a concern.
00:27:28 We are forewarning. And clearly while they're saying could be the statement mentions that if they have gone ahead and said that FI25 could see moderation
00:27:35 further into FI25 is the moderation, then there's a slowdown anticipated.
00:27:39 Is this a Bharat Forge specific issue? You reckon some of the others could face this problem as well?
00:27:46 Well, I definitely don't think it's a Bharat Forge specific issue. It's good that they have flagged off.
00:27:52 I think what they're talking about makes a lot of sense.
00:27:55 You know, there is probably no point in painting a rosy picture for a company which is manufacturing for the world.
00:28:02 Multiple pockets of the world, whether it's a Europe, whether it's China, whether it's parts of Eastern Europe,
00:28:09 there's a lot of turmoil going on in West Asia. So obviously there are challenges and they are kind of recognising those challenges.
00:28:18 While India may be all right, the other global markets are not that promising at this stage.
00:28:24 So they are flagging that off. But as far as Bharat Forge is concerned, I think the two areas which Swami Kalyani mentioned,
00:28:33 I think we have been pretty bullish on is aerospace and defence. I think both these spaces, they are gaining traction.
00:28:39 It used to be a very small fraction of their total turnover, which is now continuously increasing quarter and quarter.
00:28:46 And we believe that this is going to become a very, very important factor, maybe in three to five years' time.
00:28:52 And we know defence make in India is a big thrust for the government.
00:28:55 And, you know, Bharat Forge will definitely play a role with being an established industrial player.
00:29:02 So we are looking forward to that. Aerospace is a new area where they are doing a lot of work.
00:29:08 And I'm sure that also will become an important area.
00:29:11 So we'll carefully watch these new developments while monitoring what's happening as far as their core business sales and core business numbers are concerned.
00:29:21 Absolutely. Quick look at the markets. Before we take a very quick break, Sudip and Hemin stay on with us.
00:29:29 The weakness continues. IT stocks showing some kind of an improvement.
00:29:34 But overall, you are seeing a market and the thrills of profit booking, I would say not really a meltdown of any sort.
00:29:42 But yes, you are seeing profit booking definitely on the horizon.
00:29:46 And if you now under the 21,000 650 mark, very short break, we're coming back with the buy today, sell tomorrow.
00:29:54 BTSD or STBT, however, it may be called for the afternoon. Stay tuned.
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00:59:07 >> Thanks for tuning into Talking Point.
00:59:09 I'm your host, Neeraj Shah.
00:59:10 Our guest today is Rajiv Batra,
00:59:12 head of AsiaX Japan and China Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan.
00:59:17 Rajiv, welcome to the show.
00:59:18 Thanks for taking the time out to hope all is well.
00:59:21 Just wondering, what are your thoughts around what the world markets do
00:59:25 in a year which is fraught with election risk
00:59:28 as well as geopolitical, election calendar
00:59:33 and the geopolitical risk being as heavy as they are?
00:59:36 >> As you have rightly pointed out,
00:59:38 2024 is a record-breaking year for elections
00:59:41 with elections taking place in 77 countries.
00:59:45 Although the US elections are arguably the one race
00:59:49 which will going to have broad global consequences.
00:59:53 But that's where we will need help of navigating the equity markets,
00:59:59 particularly the high beta Asia or emerging market equities.
01:00:03 In that, the idea should be trade rather than invest
01:00:07 and go through with earning cycle
01:00:10 because the P-relating phenomena or valuation-relating phenomena
01:00:14 will be largely dependent on the monetary policymaker.
01:00:17 If we see any kind of a rate cuts and easing,
01:00:20 then valuation will come into play.
01:00:22 If not, then earnings will be buy-all, end-all for market to track
01:00:27 and that will be driving the performance from here on.
01:00:30 But that said, there will be cycles within the cycles that will play out
01:00:35 like domestic cycles could be divergent from what is happening globally
01:00:41 and particularly in the domestic markets like India
01:00:44 where they are having a long-term growth prospect in place,
01:00:48 structural areas are working.
01:00:50 So that will help them do well in this kind of,
01:00:54 you can say a very complicated year or an environment
01:00:58 to outperform the emerging market equity.
01:01:01 What's your sense about what the Fed or central banks at large could do?
01:01:12 The beliefs have been very, very disparate and post the Fed comments
01:01:17 as well as the comments from some of the FOMC members
01:01:21 in the last three or four sessions.
01:01:24 The view around when the rate cuts start are very, very different.
01:01:29 What's your base case and when do you think the market starts discounting that?
01:01:35 13th December last year, Fed took a pivot by saying
01:01:39 they may need to relook the policy stance and within the dot plot,
01:01:44 it was revealed that we may witness three rate cuts this year.
01:01:49 So bond market or equity market pricing shifted quite rapidly
01:01:53 and at one point of time, start of this year,
01:01:56 market was pricing in close to seven rate cuts this year.
01:01:59 Now, looking at the inflation data, which is slowly steadily making a comeback,
01:02:04 robust economic growth trend in the US and still a broad base gain in employment,
01:02:10 Fed is going to take some time to go for either a rate cut
01:02:17 or say we are totally done with this cycle.
01:02:20 Premised on that, JPMorgan Economic Team is forecasting the rate cuts
01:02:25 starting from June this year and we are forecasting five rate cuts,
01:02:30 one in June and then four in the second half.
01:02:34 Once Fed starts cutting, that will open door for Asia, emerging market,
01:02:39 even India to relook at their monetary policy situation.
01:02:44 But before Fed do anything, can emerging market or any other Asian countries
01:02:50 react and go before Fed? Chances look pretty low.
01:02:54 Okay. And to an extent, the Reserve Bank of India in the policy meeting earlier
01:02:59 kind of highlighted to that effect as well that the eyes on the globe
01:03:05 and of course, they also mentioned about the global debt sustainability,
01:03:08 but it seemed in some fashion that global central banking would probably drive risk assets.
01:03:16 Just one perspective, I read in your note very interestingly
01:03:20 because I was looking at Asia notes more closely by virtue of our viewers
01:03:26 being such a large dominant Indian population, which is that you mentioned
01:03:31 that you might be partly constructive on China. Please correct me if I am wrong.
01:03:36 [inaudible]
01:03:48 So is this a concern that there is no known debt benchmark to be reached?
01:03:53 You know, just like say a government wants to attain empty or lower than 4.5 by 26.
01:04:01 So any thoughts on this front and how this thickness can come down?
01:04:07 And anything that you have been suggesting to the GOI?
01:04:10 What we have been as Reserve Bank suggesting to GOI that is bilateral and that is
01:04:17 direct communication between the central bank and the finance ministry.
01:04:21 So I would not like to touch upon that. But the two other aspects which you have mentioned,
01:04:27 I think the first one is you said that the interest payments are rising.
01:04:32 Now when the inflation is high, naturally the central bank has to take monetary policy action by increasing the rates.
01:04:41 So the borrowings which are done, the government borrowings which are done during that period,
01:04:47 naturally the borrowing costs will be higher because the yields would be higher.
01:04:52 But as we move forward, as inflation has started moderating, now going forward when inflation moderates,
01:05:00 logically the final point will be where the bond yields also come down.
01:05:05 And in fact I should say that look at the 10-year bond yield.
01:05:10 The 10-year bond yield, I remember in May 2022 when we started this rate increase,
01:05:17 you know the rate hike cycle in May 2022 when we started, the 10-year bond yield was 7.14% or so.
01:05:26 Today the 10-year bond yields have again come down to about 7.17, 7.18% in that range.
01:05:35 But in between the bond yields had gone up to 7.30, 7.40 and it had remained there for some time.
01:05:42 So it is a function of your inflation level and the quantum of liquidity available in the system.
01:05:48 If you recall, in the first year of COVID, again due to the efforts of the Reserve Bank and all the steps we had taken,
01:05:56 I think that year the borrowing cost was one of the lowest so far as government borrowing was concerned.
01:06:03 So therefore in the intermittent period, the interest payments, you know, as a quantum it is linked to the bond yields.
01:06:11 So therefore going forward when inflation is brought under control, I think bond yields will soften
01:06:16 and the borrowing costs of government also should come down.
01:06:21 Then their 10-year bond yields are in any case have already, they have started softening and 5-year also.
01:06:27 Bulk of the government borrowing are in these two buckets.
01:06:31 Now the other point which you mentioned was about…
01:06:34 Debt benchmark.
01:06:35 Debt benchmark. You see, during the COVID, at the peak of the COVID, the general government debt to GDP,
01:06:44 that is central government and state governments put together, the debt to GDP was about 88%.
01:06:51 That was the peak which was at the time of the COVID pandemic.
01:06:55 That is because the government had to give lot of fiscal support, you know, to the people and to various sectors of the economy
01:07:02 because of the challenges coming from the COVID.
01:07:06 Now, so therefore at that time the debt to GDP of the general government had gone up to 88%.
01:07:12 Now it has come down to about 81% or so.
01:07:16 And with the fiscal road map, consolidation road map which the government is following,
01:07:22 you know, the target of reaching 4.5% in 2025-26,
01:07:27 I would expect, you know, the debt to GDP also to start, you know, start moderating.
01:07:33 And incidentally, it is a very important point which was mentioned in my monetary policy statement.
01:07:40 I had devoted one paragraph, if you recall, to the problem of government debt in the context of the global economy.
01:07:49 And the global debt to GDP is expected to cross 100% by 2030.
01:07:58 But even now, the debt to GDP of advanced economies is far higher than the debt to GDP of the emerging market economies.
01:08:08 I think emerging market economies are today in a position to respond far better to the needs of fiscal consolidation.
01:08:16 And so India is definitely, you know, in the forefront of the, in forefront of the path of fiscal consolidation,
01:08:24 which the emerging market economies as a group are now following.
01:08:29 Thank you, sir. I'll move on to Siddharth Upasthi from Money Control.
01:08:33 Hi, sir. Siddharth from Money Control here. A couple of quick questions.
01:08:39 One, starting off with debt, post-budget the finance secretary had said that the 40% debt to GDP ratio target,
01:08:47 the FRPM committee had suggested, that's a historical delinquent and that it needs, it's probably pandemic time.
01:08:53 So that needs some sort of a re-examination. Where do you stand on that?
01:08:58 And second, this one bond yields, we expect it flows into government debt to rise post-June once this is from the JP Morgan investment, the FAR security.
01:09:08 Sorry, I didn't get. That is?
01:09:10 It flows into, in the government debt, it will start, it will increase post-June once the listing on the JP Morgan indexes begins.
01:09:18 While we know that the government, RBI takes a look at, a close look at the bond yields, especially when they are rising.
01:09:27 What about when they are falling? If they do fall quite a bit, once these inflows come in,
01:09:31 is there any mechanism that you have in mind to manage sharp drops in yields? Thank you.
01:09:37 Sharp drop in yields.
01:09:39 Yields, once inflows keep continuing for 10 months, 25-30 billion, whatever.
01:09:44 Okay. And the first question you said was about the, okay, now, I am not aware of what the finance secretary has said,
01:09:51 but on the issue of, you know, 40% whether it is, you know, valid today or not,
01:09:59 I don't want to comment because, and offhand I don't want to comment.
01:10:04 There was a government committee which had been appointed, which had recommended I think 40+20,
01:10:10 40 for Centre and 20 for the states. So, government has to take a call.
01:10:16 What is the level of sustainable debt so far as government finances are concerned?
01:10:22 We are the debt managers of the government. RBI is the debt manager of the government
01:10:27 and whatever view the government takes with regard to their borrowing requirements,
01:10:33 RBI's responsibility is to ensure a smooth completion of, a non-disruptive completion of the borrowing programme of that particular year.
01:10:42 But yes, certainly, I mean, debt to GDP is a very critical issue in the fiscal consolidation roadmap.
01:10:51 And I think if you go by the fiscal deficit target which the government has itself followed against a budget estimate of 5.9,
01:10:59 the RE is 5.8 and the general expectation was probably the government fiscal deficit would be this year 5.2.
01:11:07 The market was expecting 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, but it is 5.1.
01:11:12 So, therefore, I think there is every reason to believe that the government will adhere to the path of fiscal consolidation
01:11:18 whether 30, 40, 50, I would not like to comment on that.
01:11:23 With regard to JP Morgan bond index, we have to see how much of it various estimates are being made by the market.
01:11:30 There are also opinion, you know, there are also, you know, suggestions by participants in the market that some of it has already come in.
01:11:38 We have seen in the recent months, you know, constant inflows of, you know, constant inflows both in the FDI and in the FPI route.
01:11:49 FPI route is very robust incidentally. I have given the figures in the monetary policy statement.
01:11:54 32 billion net, 32 billion is the net FPI inflow against an outflow last year in the corresponding period of about 6.5 billion dollars or so is what I had said.
01:12:07 So, FPI flows are robust and so JP Morgan how much actually will come, we will have to wait and see.
01:12:14 And it is not as if, you know, it is all going to come in a single burst. It will come over a period of time.
01:12:21 RBI has managed, if you go by our track record, both when there are outflows and when there are inflows.
01:12:28 In both the situations, the Reserve Bank has got an excellent track record in managing the flows.
01:12:34 And going forward, even this year also, we are confident of handling the, you know, the, what you are, you know, referring to the expected inflows, higher inflows.
01:12:45 As and when such a thing materializes, we will be able to deal with it.
01:12:50 And bond yields, as you will appreciate, as a central bank governor, I would not like to say how much is the bond yield, whether it will go up or go down, because that is a signal to the market.
01:13:02 We don't like to give, interfere in the, you see, it's a market. The rates should be decided there in the market.
01:13:09 The Reserve Bank cannot and should not, you know, it's only in a crisis situation like the COVID we did, we announced the GSAP and all that.
01:13:19 But that was an exceptional situation. But on a normal basis, the Reserve Bank, we like to leave the market to determine what should be the bond yields.
01:13:29 So I would not like to comment on the yield curve in the future.
01:13:33 We'll move on to Malik Rinkar, Patnaik from Economic Times.
01:13:37 Sir, what is your view on the budget's sustained focus on capital expenditure, I mean, for the fourth year in a row?
01:13:49 And, sir, a supplementary question. I think I wanted to follow up on, you know, Lakshman's question.
01:13:54 Two countries with which we had an MPA arrangement today. So are there more in the offing and which are those countries?
01:14:03 You see, there are several countries with which we are under discussion, both the Reserve Bank and the NPCI International, which is the international wing.
01:14:13 There's a subsidiary company of NPCI to handle their international business.
01:14:18 So NPCI International and the Reserve Bank, together we are in dialogue with a number of countries.
01:14:25 And the list of countries and the names I would not like to mention because there is a country on the other side.
01:14:31 He may or may not like, you know, their country being mentioned in our press conference.
01:14:36 So as and when something gets finalized, you will automatically come to know about it.
01:14:42 And with regard to, that was your question and what was the first one you said?
01:14:49 CapEx.
01:14:50 Now, CapEx is a GDP multiplier. In fact, research has shown that the GDP multiplier of, you know, capital expenditure is about 1.2 going up, 1.2 percent to,
01:15:03 going, sorry, 1.2 going up to about 1.4. So it is a multiplier. It has a multiplier effect on the GDP.
01:15:10 And definitely a thrust on capital expenditure is always welcome.
01:15:15 I have said it in my monetary policy statement also that government capital expenditure will support the GDP growth.
01:15:24 Tarun Sharma, Z Business.
01:15:27 I think we can conclude.
01:15:30 Tarun from Z Business.
01:15:33 I have two questions. First one, sir, green energy, for instance, government has a plan to net zero by 2017, sir.
01:15:41 And there is recommendation from the power ministry to RBI to include the green energy funding as a priority lending above 30 crores.
01:15:53 Secondly, there is some relaxation in the provision for the green energy finance.
01:15:58 Second, sir, basically you issued the discussion paper on the capping of immediate funds, which 31st January was the last day.
01:16:09 Sir, is there any discussion in the board meeting because DEA has some concern on the different capping plans?
01:16:18 I think you have said what power ministry has said, what DEA views are and so I am not aware actually of the issue but keeping that aside.
01:16:29 You know, we examine these aspects. See, ministries of government have their views, they share their views with us.
01:16:35 We take them into consideration certainly and then we will take whatever decision we feel is, I mean, whatever decision appears to be appropriate,
01:16:45 we will take that but it will naturally be based on lot of discussion with various stakeholders.
01:16:51 And ministries of the government are certainly stakeholders. So, therefore, I don't want to speculate on the request,
01:16:58 suggestion of the power ministry or the finance ministry on dividend, etc. 31st January was the last day.
01:17:05 So, comments do take time to, and we get comments in hundreds. So, they have to be examined carefully.
01:17:12 As and when we take a decision, you will know about it.
01:17:16 Radharaman Mishra from PTA, Narsham.
01:17:19 Sir, yeh minhad sawal hai ki… Mike, Mike, ladies. Chale, conclude karte hain quickly.
01:17:27 Haan, haan. Yeh sir, few questions.
01:17:29 Yeh minhad sawal hai sir, toh pehle bhi poocha jo, rejection hai sir, ki UPA card ke baad, URPI card ko leh pe bhi uske rishi hoon ka richi hai sir.
01:17:37 Bahut hai rishi. Aur ek sawal sir aur hai, toh haath karke sir. Humare kaheen ka sir abhi cyber fraud pe jayenge,
01:17:44 sir, pay poni 2 lakh crore ke nikhe hai. Hmm, sorry? Pay poni 2 lakh crore bank ekunth se nikhe hai sir. Right?
01:17:50 Aur unko aade ghande jayenge customer care se pahunchne mein, aur woh pahunchne kaha hai, aisa katka pe jayega.
01:17:58 Toh sir, mera ek chit poochna tha, ki kya aisa koi common platform banane ka aap log ka planning hai,
01:18:03 kya hindi koi bhi shikhai, fraud proof, credit reward, huma person wahi bhi?
01:18:07 Nahi, cyber fraud complaint ke liye toh ek already... Common platform sir.
01:18:11 Ho toh ek common platform hai na, what is that, that is called, you have that no? What is that called?
01:18:16 1930 common number to lodge. 1930 hai common number, aap usme complaint lodge kar dijiye.
01:18:22 Lekin, what you are talking, ab Hindi mein bolu hai ya English mein?
01:18:27 Nahi nahi, aapko jo pasand hai, hum usi mein boli hai. Theek hai, main Hindi mein answer mein deta hoon aapko.
01:18:33 Toh dekhiye, cyber security bahut genuine problem hai, do tare ke situation se.
01:18:40 Ek situation aisa hai, jaha ki customer khud, by mistake, by mistake customer, wo believe karte hai, ye genuine message hai,
01:18:50 kisi bankon ke naam par koi message aata hai, wo usko genuine believe karke, ya kabhi kabhi absent mindedly,
01:18:57 aur aisa ho jaata hai ki wo OTP share kar dete hain, ya koi personal data share kar dete hain, aur phir ek fraud ho jaata hai.
01:19:04 Isi liye, saare banks aapko aapne dekha hoga, SMS waghara beshte rehte hain, account holders ko,
01:19:10 humne bhi kaafi advertisement RBI ke taraf se kar rahe hain ki, kisi bhi tarah ka personal information jo hai, aap share mat kariye.
01:19:17 Agar koi bank se koi message aara hai, aap directly, matlab jisme ye keh raha hai ki,
01:19:22 ye isko click kar dijiye aur ye ho jayega, aapka KYC ho jayega, ye bilkul banks aise kabhi nahi karege,
01:19:28 aap directly aapka jaha pe account hai, wo branch ko directly contact kariye.
01:19:33 So ye ek type ka situation hai, jaha ki customer matlab, by mistake, wo mistake kar dete hain, aur us beech kuch paisa nikal jaata hai.
01:19:42 Lekin humne ye mandate kiya hai ki, agar aap directly bank ko complain karte hain,
01:19:47 bank ka jo complain management portal hai, usme if you complain within 24 or 48 hours we have said.
01:19:53 24 hours. 24 hours. 24 gante ke andar agar aap complain karenge, aur galti jo hai, agar bank ka hai,
01:20:00 toh full refund de denge, wo circular humne issue kar diya hai, lekin cyber security ka ye ek situation hai.
01:20:07 Dusra situation hai, jaha ki kayi tarah ka, matlab, hacking, whacking karke, wo fraud karte hain,
01:20:13 uske, us disa mein bahut saare kadam uthaye gaye hain, usme Reserve Bank, aur jo sambandit ministries hai, government ka,
01:20:23 unke beech hum regularly discuss karte rehte hain, system ko aur kaise matlab, mazmood bana sakte hain,
01:20:30 ye fraud jo aata hai, usko kaise prevent kar sakte hain.
01:20:33 Waise aapke jankari ke liye main bata do, bahut saare hacking attempts aur bahut saare fraud attempts,
01:20:38 hum block karte rahe hain, lekin wo information jo hai, matlab, wo bahar hum publicize nahi karte hain.
01:20:46 [Music]