'Israeli govt has not been able to put forward any real proposal for what comes after the fighting'
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00:00 Well, let's get some more analysis on where we stand with regards to the peace talks and
00:04 the overall situation in the region. We can cross to London and speak to Hugh Lovett,
00:08 who is a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you very
00:12 much indeed for joining us. We heard from the Israeli Prime Minister a little earlier
00:16 on this evening, Benjamin Netanyahu, calling this deal in part bizarre, delusional, were
00:23 some of the words he used about this proposed ceasefire. Clearly, it was far from being
00:28 acceptable to him. I mean, how do we reconcile two sides that are so, so far apart?
00:35 Well, one way to try to reconcile the positions of both Hamas and the Israeli government is
00:41 of course through shuttle diplomacy, which is what the state of Qatar, Egypt, and now
00:47 somewhat belatedly the United States are attempting to do by talking to both sides and trying
00:52 to come up, I suppose, with a bridging proposal and that will continue. But the real issue
00:56 is that the Israeli government and more specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quite clearly
01:02 is not in the mood to accept any compromise or any ceasefire deal at the moment. And I
01:08 think the problem is that by making, so Netanyahu is saying that he will accept nothing less
01:14 than Hamas' total eradication. That is simply not going to happen. So in effect, what the
01:19 Israeli Prime Minister is saying and vowing is basically continued perpetual war in Gaza
01:25 and likely doing that also for his own political survival.
01:28 Indeed. I mean, do you think he means it to the letter or is this a negotiating tactic
01:35 to perhaps get all sides to rethink the terms and conditions that are being presented up
01:41 until this point?
01:43 I think it's largely symptomatic of the paralysis within the Israeli political system and more
01:49 specifically within the Israeli government because of the ideological contradictions
01:55 between some of its members, between the far right members of Netanyahu's coalition and
02:00 those who were more centrist within the coalition. The Israeli government has not been able to
02:05 put forward any real proposal for what comes after the fighting in Gaza. So this is a huge
02:11 issue. But going back to Netanyahu, I mean, this is cynical, but this is also I think
02:16 needs to be said. Netanyahu's political survival to a large extent depends on the continuation
02:22 of a state of war. Once the war is over, it is quite clear, and I think there is a consensus
02:28 within the Israeli political system, that Netanyahu will be ejected from power. Once
02:34 he's out of power, he will be vulnerable to ongoing criminal investigations against him.
02:41 As well as we heard earlier from our correspondent in the region, an inquiry into the failures,
02:48 the security failings that made the 7th of October possible. We're looking at an empty
02:55 podium at the moment in Jerusalem, I believe, at the US Embassy there. Antony Blinken, the
03:00 US Secretary of State, on his fifth visit to the region since the 7th of October. It
03:05 looks, doesn't it, like he's going to go home empty handed.
03:10 And that might not be that surprising, unfortunately, given the very entrenched positions of the
03:17 Israeli government. Now, of course, there is a lot happening behind the scenes that
03:21 we're not necessarily seeing. Quite clearly, the American administration is increasing
03:27 pressure, probably privately and somewhat belatedly on the Israeli government to not
03:31 only to start to move towards de-escalation, or at least moving into a new phase in the
03:38 war in Gaza and towards a ceasefire, but also trying to develop this day after plan for
03:43 what comes after once fighting finishes, which is the core issue. So a lot of this is happening
03:48 in the background. But I think one gets a sense that American frustration with Israel
03:52 is increasing. And I think that's, again, quite symbolically on display at the moment.
03:57 The fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu held his own press conference just now, and that
04:03 Secretary Blinken will be holding his press conference shortly. And both are doing this
04:08 separately. So there's obviously a lot of tensions at play behind the scenes.
04:11 Yeah, and we've heard Netanyahu making comments to the effect that he's not even comfortable
04:16 with the people mediating between the two sides. He made some pretty disparaging comments
04:21 about the intentions of the Qatari delegation only last week, I think it was. I mean, could
04:28 there be a plan B up somebody's sleeve here that, okay, well, let's put the ceasefire
04:36 idea to one side for the time being, but at least some sort of humanitarian deal to improve
04:42 and increase the amount of humanitarian aid getting through to people that we saw in that
04:45 report who are clearly living in extremely desperate conditions?
04:49 Indeed, and I think we need to differentiate between two things. The first is a pause in
04:55 fighting. And we had that before Christmas. There was a limited pause that allowed for
05:01 the release of some Israeli hostages in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners and
05:05 a surging of humanitarian aid into Gaza. I think that is possible to envisage at some
05:11 point in the coming weeks. There's a lot of details that need to be negotiated in terms
05:15 of how many hostages will be released, how many Palestinian prisoners will be released,
05:19 how long that pause in fighting will last. I think that is, there is a possibility of
05:24 an agreement on that. The bigger issue, and this is I think what is holding up talks now,
05:29 indirect talks between Hamas and Israel, is what comes after this pause. Now, Israel and
05:34 Prime Minister Netanyahu are very clear that they want to resume fighting in Gaza once
05:39 this is over to eradicate Hamas, whereas Hamas is now pushing for a permanent ceasefire to
05:45 come after this pause. So the pause would last a number of weeks. And during that time,
05:51 Hamas' plan is that the parties would then try to establish a framework for what comes
05:56 after the fighting ends and how to actually lock in a longer term ceasefire.
06:02 But I mean, hasn't Netanyahu boxed everyone into an impossible corner here by saying that
06:08 the only deal we'll accept is a deal with a group that will have been eradicated, so
06:13 there won't be a deal? I mean, it's as simple as that, isn't it?
06:17 Yeah, and I think this is the problem. And this has been the problem basically from day
06:20 one, is that the Israeli government has been setting out, at least publicly, a set of objectives
06:27 that it cannot meet militarily. We can all agree that, well, my position is certainly
06:33 that Hamas should have no role in Gaza's future in terms of Gaza's governance and security.
06:39 But it is also clear that Israeli military action in Gaza will not be able to eradicate
06:44 Hamas. Hamas will remain there. The only way to extract it will be through this political
06:49 track. And I think the problem is not by setting out these unrealistic aims. Netanyahu has
06:56 indeed cornered himself. He's not enabling the Israeli political and public opinion to
07:02 move in a direction that could start to allow for concessions. But it's also completely
07:06 at odds with what Israeli politicians and military officials say, mostly privately,
07:12 but sometimes also publicly. Plenty of officials do, Israeli officials do recognize that Israel
07:19 will not be able to eradicate Hamas, and that actually it will be more about weakening and
07:24 degrading the movement.
07:26 Okay, just lastly, before I let you go, because it doesn't look like we're going to get Anthony
07:30 Blinken speaking while you're still here. It seems to be rather later than we'd expected.
07:37 Is there anything the US could do or any of Israel's other regional allies and future
07:43 regional allies? And there I'm talking obviously about countries like Saudi Arabia, which hold
07:48 considerable clout now in the region. Is there anything they can do to step up the pressure
07:53 on Netanyahu and get him to say, look, this cannot go on. Your goals are unrealistic.
08:02 We've got to come to some sort of a conclusion here, because not least for the Biden administration,
08:08 they're trying to win an election in eight months from now, and this isn't helping in
08:12 the slightest.
08:13 Indeed. I think one of the bigger issues is that up until now, the Biden administration
08:21 has not been willing, in my mind, to apply sufficient pressure on the Israeli government.
08:26 They've until now adopted the so-called bear hug strategy, which is trying to hug Netanyahu
08:32 close and by engaging and supporting him, trying to moderate his views and the conduct
08:38 of the Israeli military in Gaza. I would argue that after almost 30,000 dead Palestinians,
08:43 that strategy has not worked. And we are now starting to see the American administration
08:48 apply a bit more pressure. Clearly, there needs to be even more than that in conjunction
08:53 with European states and regional states. That is ultimately also about trying to demonstrate
08:57 there is accountability of Israeli actions in Gaza by supporting international accountability
09:04 mechanisms such as the ICC and ICJ. These are all important ways of signaling and putting
09:08 pressure. That's the first stage.
09:10 The next stage is to really start to grapple with the Israelis, but also indirectly with
09:15 Hamas about what comes after a pause in fighting. How can a ceasefire in Gaza become more sustainable?
09:23 That will require a hard recognition of hard realities, including the fact that Hamas will
09:28 have to be factored in no matter how atrocious its actions, it will remain there. But it
09:33 will also require a reform of the Palestinian Authority, which is also very difficult. But
09:38 even more difficult, but more important, is how to actually re-energize an Israeli-Palestinian
09:43 political track. Without that, there will be no sustainable future for Gaza and there
09:47 will be no sustainable peace or security for either Israelis or Palestinians.
09:51 Okay, well, thank you very much indeed for taking the time to share your thoughts with
09:55 us. Hugh Lovett, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, thank
09:59 you very much for being with us on France 24 once again.