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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 The Ravens taking on the Kansas City Chiefs,
00:05 they're three and a half point favorites.
00:08 The only thing that I think I'm certain about here, Jacob,
00:12 is that if you are going to, not the total, the side.
00:16 If you're going to take the Chiefs, I think you should probably do it now,
00:21 cuz I don't think this is gonna stick, maybe I'll be wrong, at three and a half.
00:25 I think it's gonna be three at kickoff on Sunday.
00:28 I think people are just gonna wanna take Mahomes at that point.
00:31 I don't know if you see things the same way, maybe you like Baltimore in this one.
00:35 Jacob, the floor is yours, the AFC Championship,
00:38 Ravens minus three and a half, total of 44 and a half.
00:42 >> So I do like the Ravens in this one, though I agree with you.
00:45 If you like the Chiefs, take them now at the plus three and
00:48 a half because that's good line value.
00:50 I know a lot of people will be scared off by the minus three and
00:53 a half on the Raven side and saying, Mahomes could win this,
00:56 Mahomes could at least cover this or maybe has a backdoor cover chance if they're down
01:00 ten late and he gets a touchdown.
01:02 But the way I look at this is,
01:03 this Baltimore defense is the best unit in this game overall.
01:07 I know some people will have a qualm with, well,
01:09 they've allowed 100 plus rushing yards in four of their last five games.
01:13 That's true, but they just have one of the healthier defenses and
01:18 one that gets a lot of pressure.
01:20 They have, I think, the most sacks in the league.
01:22 They rank number one DVOA for defense, number two in expected points added EPA,
01:27 on defense behind only the Browns.
01:30 So the advanced metrics like them, and we saw last week, I know CJ Stroud's a rookie,
01:35 but they limited that Texans offense to just three points.
01:38 The only touchdown they got was off that kicker turn.
01:41 I think they're gonna be able to get a lot of heat on Patrick Mahomes,
01:44 kinda force him to make some spectacular plays on the run.
01:47 And look, Mahomes can 100% do that, but
01:50 this kinda reminds me a little bit of the Buccaneers Super Bowl,
01:53 where the Bucs defense just got after Mahomes a lot.
01:56 And he made some unbelievable plays and
01:58 some throws where he was midair and still got it 30 yards down the field.
02:03 But I'm just not convinced he's gonna convert enough of those to get the win
02:06 here, and with the way the Chiefs defense last week
02:10 had issues containing Josh Allen scrambling,
02:13 I think Lamar Jackson is gonna be a real X factor in this game.
02:16 I mean, that's a very lukewarm take, he's an X factor every game, but
02:20 I think his ability on the ground and through the air is gonna keep
02:23 the Chiefs off balance.
02:24 So if I'm backing any unit in this game, it's the Ravens defense.
02:28 So three and a half points, not pretty, but I think it's the right side here.
02:32 [MUSIC]