NationalWorld's political specialist, Ralph Blackburn, brings you his political highlights coming up this week including the latest OBR forecast to determine whether the Tories will give the public the long-awaited tax cuts; the Commons debate on Grocery Supply Chain, and the first US Republican primary.
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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 Hello, my name is Rafe Blackburn, National World's
00:10 Politics Editor.
00:11 And I'm bringing you the three things
00:14 you should watch out for in politics this week.
00:18 So first of all, we have the Office
00:20 for Budget Responsibility forecasts,
00:23 which are due to be published at some point this week.
00:26 And while this may sound like a pretty dry, pretty boring
00:31 thing, it could have a huge impact on politics going
00:36 forward, how much money you're getting home in your paycheck,
00:40 and also leading up to the next election.
00:42 Now, the Office for Budget Responsibility
00:45 is kind of like the independent assessor
00:48 of the government's finances and the government's
00:51 fiscal policy.
00:52 So that's things which come out of the Treasury,
00:55 like tax and all sorts like that.
00:57 Now, this week, they're going to publish their forecast, which
01:00 lead into the next budget, which is at the start of March.
01:05 And they'll basically calculate how much fiscal headroom
01:08 the government has.
01:09 So basically, when I say how much it has to spend,
01:11 that could include spending it effectively on tax cuts.
01:15 And that is certainly what the government wants to do.
01:19 Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have not
01:22 been quiet about the fact that ahead of the election,
01:26 and at this next budget, they want
01:27 to cut tax as much as they possibly can.
01:30 This might be income tax.
01:31 It might be national insurance tax.
01:33 It could even be inheritance tax, which
01:36 would be fairly controversial.
01:38 Now, how much they'll be able to do that
01:40 will sort of be decided this week
01:43 by the Office for Budget Responsibility,
01:45 who will do their forecasts with how the economy is doing,
01:48 leading ahead to the next budget,
01:50 and decide how much fiscal headroom the prime minister
01:54 and the chancellor has to play with,
01:55 and therefore what tax cuts they can bring in.
01:58 And like I say, that could have a big impact
02:01 on whether Rishi Sunak has a chance of getting re-elected
02:04 whenever the general election is called.
02:07 Second thing to watch out for this week
02:08 is actually this evening.
02:10 So in Westminster Hall, MPs are set
02:14 to debate the grocery supply chain code of practice.
02:17 And that basically sets out the rules
02:19 which define how supermarkets and wholesalers should
02:24 pay farmers.
02:25 And it's the whole kind of like rules
02:27 around agricultural interaction.
02:30 Now, we reported last year about a petition set up
02:34 by Riverford Organic-- that is the fruit and veg box seller--
02:40 where they wanted the grocery supply chain code of practice
02:43 to be amended to include clauses basically saying
02:49 that supermarkets had to pay on time,
02:50 they had to buy what they agreed,
02:52 and had to pay what they agreed.
02:55 Now, it's important to note at this point
02:56 that the British Retail Consortium, which
02:59 is the trade body for all sorts of retail shops,
03:03 including supermarkets, they basically say,
03:05 these things are already set out in law,
03:07 so you can't break them.
03:08 However, Riverford Organic says that this
03:10 is a huge problem for farmers.
03:13 Farmers are often kind of being ditched at the last minute
03:16 if a supermarket can find a cheaper offer.
03:19 And actually, their research shows
03:21 that almost 50% of Britain's fresh fruit and veg farmers
03:26 fear they may have to close over the next 12 months
03:31 if nothing is changed.
03:34 So I guess you might think, why is it important that we
03:38 grow all this food in the UK?
03:41 Why don't we just--
03:42 if it's not economically viable for our farmers to sell it,
03:47 why don't we just get it from abroad?
03:49 And that is because of something called food security.
03:51 So food security works out how much food and produce
03:56 we grow in our own country compared
03:58 to how much we import.
03:59 And at the moment, it's around 60% to 55%.
04:03 So just over half of the food we eat here
04:06 is grown in this country.
04:07 However, like we just heard, farmers
04:10 are worried that this level could drop if they're pushed out
04:13 of business due to these issues around supermarkets
04:17 and wholesalers.
04:20 And the problem is, the more food you import,
04:22 the more external factors can impact that.
04:25 So we've seen that with grain being imported from Ukraine.
04:30 That was obviously affected by the war.
04:32 And also, things such as climate change
04:34 is having an increasing impact on food and supply chains.
04:38 Last year, we see there were pepper shortages
04:41 due to extreme temperatures in Spain and Morocco.
04:45 So food security, not a particularly sexy subject,
04:48 but a very important one going forward.
04:50 And it'll be really interesting to hear what MPs have to say.
04:53 For our final political event to watch out for this week,
04:56 we are going across the pond to the United States.
04:59 And that is for the Republican primary
05:02 in the state of New Hampshire in New England.
05:06 This is the first primary of the Republican nomination race
05:11 after the caucus in Iowa.
05:13 And it is set to be one that will absolutely define the race
05:18 and is probably the only thing that
05:21 could have even a small chance of stopping Donald Trump
05:25 from becoming the nomination, other than an extended spell
05:29 in jail, to be honest.
05:31 Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida,
05:33 has now dropped out of the way.
05:35 So it is now just between Trump and the former UN ambassador,
05:40 Nikki Haley.
05:41 And to stand even the smallest chance--
05:44 I mean, it's really, really minuscule at this point--
05:47 of Haley being able to defeat Donald Trump
05:51 and win the Republican presidential nomination,
05:53 she absolutely has to win this primary in New Hampshire.
05:57 She's behind in every state.
06:00 New Hampshire is the closest, as rather unusually,
06:03 it allows independents to vote, as well as
06:05 Republican party members.
06:08 And Haley needs to hope that she can get some of Ron DeSantis'
06:12 supporters now that he dropped out.
06:15 And she needs to hope that there will be some incredible kind
06:18 of change in momentum, and she can win New Hampshire,
06:21 and then hopefully go on and win the next primary, which
06:23 is in her home state of South Carolina.
06:26 So still really unlikely that anything is going to change.
06:32 Trump is so dominant in Republican politics
06:36 at the moment.
06:37 But if there is going to be any sort of change,
06:40 Nikki Haley really has to win the primary on Tuesday night
06:45 in New Hampshire.
06:47 Thanks very much for watching.
06:49 A reminder, you can find all of our politics stories
06:52 on the politics section of the nationalworld.com website
06:57 and our app.
06:58 And if you want to get more politics content from us,
07:01 you can also sign up to the Politics Uncovered newsletter,
07:04 which will land in your inboxes every Sunday
07:07 with an alternative look at the week in politics.
07:10 (dramatic music)