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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:05 Now I was on Detroit last week and was shocked that they did not cover.
00:09 Watching the first half of that game, I'm like, wow,
00:11 this is the best pick that I've made in the playoffs.
00:15 Detroit is gonna crush them.
00:16 But they just stopped, I couldn't believe it.
00:19 The only Lions game all year where Ben Johnson wants to throw these little dink
00:23 and dunks at outside screens, I couldn't believe it.
00:25 They're six point favorites this week, six and a half in some spots on Ben MGM.
00:29 Buccaneers at the Lions, total of 48 and a half.
00:33 I'm seeing some 49s here, Warren.
00:35 And look, if the Lions did learn their lesson, if they did learn their lesson,
00:40 this thing's going way over.
00:41 If they did not, Tampa Bay has a chance to win the game, I think.
00:44 >> Yeah, it's surprising, as aggressive as their head coaches and
00:49 as creative as their offensive coordinator is, it just seems so
00:52 odd to me that they go 60% pass on first down in the first half and
00:56 run from a lot of three wide sets and gain over 5.5 yards per carry.
01:00 And then in the second half, when they've got this lead,
01:03 they're doing very little besides on first downs,
01:05 running the ball from heavier personnel against loaded boxes,
01:09 86% loaded box rate from the Rams.
01:12 And they're shocked that the first downs are gaining 0.6 yards per carry now.
01:16 And all of a sudden, they're facing third downs with 9.8 yards to go on average,
01:20 and they're only converting, I think, around 20% of those.
01:23 So none of this would be surprising if you go back and
01:26 look at what their first down strategy was and
01:29 what they changed from the first quarter.
01:31 I'm a firm believer in these, you work all year,
01:35 all off season to get to this point, to make it to the playoffs.
01:39 You can't be changing up your game plan and go in this conservative mode
01:42 at the end of the game against any of these offenses in the NFL,
01:45 especially with the Detroit Lions defense, Craig,
01:48 that is giving up the most 20 plus yard completions to wide receivers
01:53 in the NFL this year.
01:54 And for that reason in part, I do like Baker Mayfield over his passing yards.
01:59 I also took some ults there.
02:01 I think the Bucks, they came up passing a lot last game.
02:04 They're gonna be needing to pass here because this is clear pass funnel defense.
02:08 The Lions are great against the run.
02:10 I don't think Rashard White's gonna have a ton of success.
02:12 They hand him the football.
02:13 They need to lean into that passing attack as long as they can protect Baker Mayfield
02:16 to keep him upright.
02:18 They've got the receiving weapons against the bad secondary to counter punch
02:22 a little bit here with the Detroit Lions and potentially play from behind.
02:25 So I think Baker Mayfield is passing early and often.
02:29 [MUSIC]
02:32 [BLANK_AUDIO]