- #FederalBank's Q3 numbers come in largely in-line
- #AngelOne declines further
Tamanna Inamdar and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Hemen Kapadia, Sr VP Institutional Equity, KR Choksey Stocks & Securities
Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Group Chairman, Inditrade Capital
Deepali Goenka, CEO & MD, Welspun Living
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- #AngelOne declines further
Tamanna Inamdar and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Hemen Kapadia, Sr VP Institutional Equity, KR Choksey Stocks & Securities
Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Group Chairman, Inditrade Capital
Deepali Goenka, CEO & MD, Welspun Living
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
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TVTranscript
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00:01:17 Very good afternoon.
00:01:25 You're watching India Market Close.
00:01:27 I'm Tamannaah Inamdar.
00:01:28 It's been a tepid day of trade and pest
00:01:31 with weakness and profit booking as an overhang on the markets.
00:01:36 The Nifty managing to stay above the 22,000 mark.
00:01:40 Quite bravely, I would say, that level
00:01:42 has been respected through most of the day.
00:01:45 The Sensex also seeing a bit of pressure.
00:01:47 Let's pull up broader markets, see what's happening there.
00:01:50 Remember, the big anticipation is for the number of the day,
00:01:52 I would say.
00:01:53 HDFC back numbers expected any minute.
00:01:55 And you must stay with us for complete and comprehensive
00:01:58 coverage of that.
00:01:59 Having said that, the broader markets
00:02:01 also seeing quite a bit of strain through the day.
00:02:05 Recovery from the lowest points of the day,
00:02:07 but yet you are seeing pain in the broader markets as well.
00:02:11 Even more so, deeper cut relatively
00:02:13 on the Nifty's small cap.
00:02:15 Let's pull up the advanced declines
00:02:16 and see what's happening there.
00:02:18 Remember, Finn Nifty expiry today,
00:02:19 so that's also weighing through.
00:02:21 You've had a bout of profit booking,
00:02:23 and that's been the overall theme.
00:02:24 Whether you have the IT stocks, which led the raise yesterday
00:02:28 and now are leading the fall.
00:02:29 Look at that.
00:02:30 Look at that momentum through the day.
00:02:32 And over here, you are seeing a very volatile kind
00:02:36 of a day of trade.
00:02:37 Range bound and volatile, I would say.
00:02:40 So the next big cues perhaps being awaited.
00:02:44 Let's pull up the heat map and look at what the performance
00:02:47 indicators have been.
00:02:49 If it's a good day for one sector or one stock,
00:02:51 it's oil and gas and metals.
00:02:53 That definitely is the big up move over there.
00:02:58 Windfall tax has been fared, and that
00:03:01 has helped push a BPCL impressively up 3% in trade
00:03:05 today.
00:03:06 ONGC also not doing too badly at all.
00:03:08 Maruti put out a note today that they're
00:03:10 going to increase their prices, their retail prices,
00:03:14 by about half a percent in this month.
00:03:16 That stock in the green.
00:03:18 But the story is largely here.
00:03:19 And like I said, it's a story of profit booking,
00:03:22 whether it's an HCL tech, a Wipro, all of them
00:03:25 seeing that pain.
00:03:26 Infosys, TCS, all between 1% to 2% down in trade.
00:03:30 And LTI, Mindtree, as well ahead of numbers,
00:03:34 seeing that pain coming in.
00:03:35 And DVE's lab.
00:03:36 So all of, I think, the best performers
00:03:40 of the last few sessions have seen profit booking coming in.
00:03:43 I'm going to quickly just pull up
00:03:45 and see what's happening in Europe
00:03:46 before I hand it over to Harsh for those specific stories that
00:03:50 have dominated through the day.
00:03:52 But Europe seems to have had a weak opening as well,
00:03:56 and a fairly weak opening at that.
00:03:58 So Europe down in the red.
00:04:00 We'll watch those indicators.
00:04:02 But Harsh, in terms of sectors, the story
00:04:05 belonged to all of the companies that have put out numbers.
00:04:08 It's all about the numbers, is it?
00:04:10 Absolutely.
00:04:10 So let me first off take it to the stocks which were buzzing
00:04:13 on the back of numbers.
00:04:14 You have the likes of an Angel One,
00:04:17 which has been in the negative right from the start of trade,
00:04:22 despite it starting out to be quite a good day.
00:04:24 It's now down 13 and 1/2%.
00:04:27 Let me also go to something like Geo Financial.
00:04:30 Again, that one on the back of earnings,
00:04:33 doing poorly in trade as we speak.
00:04:36 We're also seeing the likes of the banking pack, Federal Bank,
00:04:38 Bank of Maharashtra.
00:04:40 Focus comes back on HDFC Bank, but quickly on Federal Bank,
00:04:43 down 2.7%.
00:04:44 That NIM number, not seeing much of an improvement.
00:04:47 Also Bank of Maharashtra, down around a percent
00:04:49 after its numbers.
00:04:51 Some amount of profit booking also, to some extent,
00:04:54 being seen there.
00:04:55 Also, with regard to the likes of an HDFC Bank,
00:04:58 let's flag that off, because that one,
00:05:00 earnings expected any time now.
00:05:03 But that's where we are, where the earnings basket is
00:05:06 concerned.
00:05:06 Let me also flag off CE Infosystems, actually.
00:05:09 That stock is also in the negative
00:05:12 on the back of earnings.
00:05:14 And it, in fact, slipped into the red post the earnings.
00:05:16 CE Infosystems, if we can have that stock.
00:05:19 Quickly also, moving on to some of the other buzzers
00:05:22 in terms of trade, you have the likes of a PNC Infra.
00:05:24 Positive buzz on that stock, doing very well
00:05:27 on a weekday of trade, up 4% after divestiture
00:05:31 of some of its assets.
00:05:32 Nalco also, it's JV to start exploration
00:05:36 with regard to lithium, that one up as well.
00:05:38 Sarda Contractwin, Sarda Energy, that one
00:05:42 is also up in trade, roughly 2% or thereabouts.
00:05:46 You're seeing Jyoti CNC, what a stellar listing
00:05:49 on an otherwise weak day of trade.
00:05:50 So 32% high on the back of that.
00:05:52 Some notes as well.
00:05:53 You have Paytm, which is buzzing on the back of a brokerage
00:05:56 note, initiating coverage from UBS.
00:06:00 Stock is up 4%, target price, 900 rupees a share.
00:06:04 So positive on Paytm on the back of that.
00:06:06 And some stocks which have been in focus
00:06:08 in the last couple of days.
00:06:09 Let's pull up something like a Polycab.
00:06:12 Stock is doing, again, very well in trade
00:06:14 on a weekday of trade.
00:06:16 And I also want to flag off something like an IRFC
00:06:18 and an IREDA.
00:06:19 Let's first flag off IRFC.
00:06:21 Look at that, 8% gains on a day when
00:06:25 we've seen some amount of weakness through the day.
00:06:27 And also, if we can have IREDA, not sure what that stock has
00:06:30 done, but that one is down after quite a strong day yesterday.
00:06:34 So those are all the stocks which are in focus today.
00:06:37 Tamanna.
00:06:39 What a list over there, especially the momentum
00:06:41 that we've seen in railway stocks now reversing.
00:06:46 I would just add to Harsh's list and talk
00:06:49 about Realty, which has been seeing profit
00:06:53 booking through the day.
00:06:54 And again, India bulls real estate, the deepest cut
00:06:58 over there.
00:06:59 I bulls down about 4%, Prestige, Oberoi, DLF, Macrotech,
00:07:04 all of them seeing quite an extent of profit
00:07:07 booking in today's trade.
00:07:10 Though, of course, we'll wait and see
00:07:12 what happens with HDFC and whether that lifts the mood.
00:07:15 But right now, I would say a cautious market, definitely
00:07:19 nifty down about 0.5% now.
00:07:22 Let's see if we hold up above the 22,000 mark
00:07:25 by end of trade.
00:07:26 Hemen Kapadia joining us now, he's
00:07:28 Senior VP Institutional Equity at KR Choksi Stocks
00:07:32 and Securities.
00:07:32 Hemen, great to have you back on the show.
00:07:35 And it's a bit of a wobbly day, isn't it?
00:07:38 The question is whether 22,000 holds.
00:07:42 A very good afternoon to you.
00:07:44 Actually, Tamanna, thank you for having me on the show.
00:07:46 It's a pleasure.
00:07:47 Absolutely.
00:07:48 It's wobbly on the early charts.
00:07:50 Tamanna, the nifty and the bank nifty
00:07:52 both have made small rounding tops.
00:07:55 Not too much.
00:07:55 I don't think you attach too much of importance
00:07:57 to our lead chart.
00:07:58 But nevertheless, that is in way explaining technically
00:08:02 what you put forward very rightly, wobbly market.
00:08:06 There was a big upward gap yesterday.
00:08:11 There was another gap before that.
00:08:13 So some of these gaps, Tamanna, need to get covered up.
00:08:16 Need is visual thinking.
00:08:18 If they don't, it's better they provide support.
00:08:21 But some of these gaps are open.
00:08:22 So there is always a possibility that an index like the nifty
00:08:27 will make an attempt to cover up this gap.
00:08:29 We made an attempt today.
00:08:31 Wasn't successful.
00:08:32 So chances are that this wobbly situation
00:08:36 might continue for a few days more.
00:08:38 But stock specific, I think there's
00:08:39 a lot of things happening.
00:08:42 Market breadth is a little bit under pressure.
00:08:44 But overall, we've had a perpendicular rise.
00:08:48 So if we do have some cross currents,
00:08:53 I think it's an opportunity.
00:08:55 Right.
00:08:56 Himan, just very quickly, a view on the bank nifty.
00:08:59 You have an expiry today, a fin nifty expiry.
00:09:02 Just views on the bank nifty.
00:09:04 And would you completely stay off HDFC
00:09:08 before the numbers are out?
00:09:10 Bank nifty range between 4,800--
00:09:14 48,000 and 4,300.
00:09:16 This is on the intraday charts meant for a day or two.
00:09:20 So frankly speaking, not ending bias.
00:09:23 As far as HDFC bank is concerned, very tempting.
00:09:27 But I would say I'd wait just a wee bit.
00:09:31 If there is a disappointment or a decline,
00:09:33 I think it's an opportunity to buy.
00:09:35 So I'd wait just a wee bit.
00:09:37 Shoaib and Harsh also joining in.
00:09:40 Opportunity to buy on dips, but buy what?
00:09:44 I would buy state bank.
00:09:45 I would buy Axis Bank.
00:09:48 I would buy ICICI bank.
00:09:51 And on a decline, HDFC bank also.
00:09:53 And something like an MGL.
00:09:56 There are many stocks, Harsh, which
00:09:58 have given breakouts or are on the cusp of breaking out.
00:10:01 And they are giving throwbacks.
00:10:03 So now Biocon is poised, interestingly.
00:10:07 The MGL that I mentioned to you, Harsh, now the thing
00:10:10 is MGL has been consolidating over here for a long time.
00:10:14 And we're on the cusp of breaking out
00:10:16 of what is a 4 and 1/2 year consolidation phase.
00:10:19 So I'm not saying it's impervious to corrections.
00:10:22 But yeah, on a decline after the breakout,
00:10:25 I think that makes it quite interesting.
00:10:27 Just interesting, I'm just jumping in
00:10:29 because you spoke about SBI.
00:10:32 And Citi has a note on SBI, which is not very exciting,
00:10:37 to be honest.
00:10:38 They say that they've rated a sell on SBI this afternoon
00:10:43 because of the high ROAs that they see.
00:10:46 But yeah, just coming in there, that target price that they see
00:10:49 for SBI is at 600 rupees.
00:10:52 Himin, very quickly, on Paytm, if you have a view at all,
00:10:57 UBS had a note out today.
00:10:59 And they have quite a steep target price over there.
00:11:02 Do you like Paytm on the charts?
00:11:05 I think currently we are in the throes of a comeback,
00:11:08 a pullback, not a rally, but a recovery.
00:11:11 Currently, setup is positive.
00:11:13 So I'd be more positive than negative.
00:11:15 Buying fresh at this juncture, no.
00:11:18 Understood.
00:11:22 Take your point, Himin.
00:11:24 Citi, a very interesting note, Tamanna, on SBI.
00:11:27 What they are continuing to suggest
00:11:29 is that ROA levers going forward look difficult.
00:11:34 And also, mind you, this time around,
00:11:36 SBI will have to provide for wage provisioning,
00:11:39 which they haven't done.
00:11:42 Wages were revised from upwards to 17%.
00:11:46 They've provided for just about 14%.
00:11:48 So that 3% delta starting 2023 will mean that--
00:11:53 or rather, '22-- will mean that there
00:11:56 is a substantial amount of provisioning which
00:11:58 will come through this quarter.
00:12:01 And therefore, you will see a tough set of numbers coming in
00:12:05 from LIC.
00:12:05 And that is what they seem to be alluding to.
00:12:07 From SBI.
00:12:08 From SBI, sorry.
00:12:09 That's correct.
00:12:10 Sorry, apologies.
00:12:11 And that's what I think they seem to be alluding to.
00:12:13 That 1% ROA may not sustain.
00:12:16 But of course, you have to wait and watch those numbers.
00:12:18 So if wage provisioning is a concern,
00:12:21 one assumes the problem will compound,
00:12:23 because their wage rates are likely to go up as well.
00:12:27 That's correct.
00:12:27 But it's always in the first quarter
00:12:30 where the hit is the most, because you
00:12:33 have provided for the last three to four quarters, which
00:12:37 you will have to revise.
00:12:39 So of course, that provisioning is already done.
00:12:41 But that is for the past quarters.
00:12:42 You'll have to actually, on an actual basis,
00:12:46 provide for the total amount in the first quarter.
00:12:50 So they've provided for 14.
00:12:51 They actually had to provide for 17.
00:12:53 So the difference of 3% is what they'll
00:12:54 have to recognize in this quarter, which is what I think
00:12:59 they're alluding to.
00:13:01 But yeah, so that's an interesting piece
00:13:04 which is playing out.
00:13:05 But let me quickly move on.
00:13:08 And let's have Varsha, who's standing by.
00:13:12 She's going to talk to us about all the buzzing
00:13:14 stocks in trade today.
00:13:16 Varsha, what are the stocks on your list?
00:13:19 So hi, everybody.
00:13:20 So let's start with Indigo Paints,
00:13:22 where shares hit intraday low of 2% with volume of 12.25X.
00:13:27 Now, this is on the basis of one large trade at average price
00:13:30 of almost 1,485.
00:13:32 Then we have P&B Housing Finance,
00:13:34 which hit intraday high of almost 8%.
00:13:37 Now, volumes were over 9X.
00:13:39 Now, this is on the back of Motilal Oswal declaring
00:13:42 the company as its top pick in the NBFC and Housing Finance
00:13:45 Ambit.
00:13:45 And the brokerage firm has given our stock
00:13:47 a buy rating with a target price of almost 1,025 per share.
00:13:52 Then we have Aster DM, where it nearly surged 13%,
00:13:56 hitting its lifetime high.
00:13:57 Now, volumes were over 8X, its 30-day average.
00:14:00 Now, this is on the back where the board will consider
00:14:03 the distribution of 70% to 80% of the upfront consideration
00:14:06 of $903 million as dividend to its shareholder, which
00:14:10 will be in a range of 110 to 120 per share.
00:14:13 Then we have ITI Limited, which hit intraday high of almost 19%.
00:14:17 It's buzzing at a volume of over 8X.
00:14:20 Now, six large trades with three crore shares
00:14:22 being traded with an average price of 357 rupees.
00:14:26 Now, it introduced a proprietary laptop and micro PCs
00:14:29 under the name Smash and recently won two tenders
00:14:32 from Kerala for 9,000 solar solutions laptops.
00:14:35 Then we have Capli Global, where they're now
00:14:38 planning to have an insurance platform as the company
00:14:42 received a composite corporate agency license from IRDAI.
00:14:47 Now, with this tech-centric focus,
00:14:49 the company aims to leverage its robust client base
00:14:52 to cross-sell insurance products.
00:14:55 Then lastly, we have PNC InfraTech,
00:14:57 where it hit intraday high of over 10%.
00:15:00 Now, here the company with its arm
00:15:01 executed definitive agreement with Highway Infrastructure
00:15:04 Trust to divest 12 of the company's road assets
00:15:08 and one toll concession.
00:15:09 The enterprise value of the transaction
00:15:10 is almost 9,000 crores.
00:15:13 Thank you for that, Varsha.
00:15:17 If I were to create a new category of defying all odds
00:15:22 or try and make sense of this, of stocks that are running up
00:15:26 massively, on that list today would be Polycab,
00:15:30 would be Z Entertainment, and would be IRFC.
00:15:33 In fact, let me get Sudip Bandopadhyay
00:15:35 into the conversation.
00:15:36 He's group chairman in IndyTrade and asked him
00:15:39 about some of these logic-defying moves
00:15:42 that we're seeing in the market today.
00:15:44 And I'll tell you why.
00:15:45 Z Entertainment, I mean, you're four days away
00:15:48 from a deadline on whether this merger with Sony
00:15:50 will happen or not.
00:15:51 No word at all.
00:15:54 No clear indication either way.
00:15:56 But you have a sharp move on that stock
00:15:59 for no real rhyme or reason.
00:16:01 From what I'm hearing, we'll have clarity maybe by the 21st.
00:16:05 Polycab has been hit by a spate of news reports
00:16:09 and actual income tax statements saying
00:16:13 that they're raiding wire companies
00:16:15 and they're the only ones in the news on this.
00:16:17 The company comes and says, well, no, not really.
00:16:19 There's one brokerage report, Jefferies,
00:16:22 that says we don't see a big problem
00:16:24 and that stock has been on a roll.
00:16:25 IRFC has no negative news.
00:16:27 But one has to understand whether it makes sense
00:16:31 to be about 8.5% up the kind of valuations we're seeing.
00:16:34 Sudeep, I'm going to come to you.
00:16:36 Let's start with IRFC.
00:16:37 What do you think is going on there?
00:16:39 Well, I think there is no doubt about the fact
00:16:42 that they will have a great business for the next three,
00:16:46 five years.
00:16:47 The kind of work which is happening on the railway
00:16:49 modernization, new coaches, new electrification, railway
00:16:53 platform modernization.
00:16:56 So there's no doubt about the volume of business
00:16:59 which will go through IRFC.
00:17:00 The only question is the valuation.
00:17:02 And I think that has reached a level where probably it
00:17:06 doesn't justify based on whatever known facts are there.
00:17:10 So I would not really jump into IRFC at these levels.
00:17:15 I will wait for a time-wise correction
00:17:17 at least before recommending or getting into IRFC.
00:17:23 Right.
00:17:24 Sudeep, we didn't get your views with regard
00:17:26 to markets as a whole.
00:17:28 Let me first get that piece out of the way.
00:17:31 How are you viewing markets?
00:17:32 It's been a wobbly day, as Tamanna termed it, of trade
00:17:37 today.
00:17:38 How are you viewing it?
00:17:40 Well, definitely it's a wobbly day.
00:17:42 It's up and down.
00:17:43 It's continuing.
00:17:44 And I would say that we are heading
00:17:47 into an event which is entering budget.
00:17:52 So obviously, there is some nervousness.
00:17:54 We also have a Fed meet towards the end of this month.
00:17:57 That also will create some volatility.
00:18:00 And we are in the midst of an earnings season
00:18:03 where there are obviously some headwinds on some
00:18:06 of the sectors and companies.
00:18:08 So a bit of nervousness at such elevated level
00:18:11 is par for the course.
00:18:12 So I won't read too much and get too worried
00:18:15 about this kind of a little bit of topsy-turvy movement,
00:18:19 particularly when the index was at all-time high.
00:18:22 So a bit of caution, a bit of correction, profit-taking,
00:18:26 whatever name you want to call it by,
00:18:28 I think is par for the course.
00:18:31 Right.
00:18:32 And Sudeep, very quickly, your picks in this market.
00:18:37 Well, Reliance has been my favorite for quite some time.
00:18:40 And I think last time when we interacted, I did mention.
00:18:43 I continue to like Reliance.
00:18:45 I think still quite a long way to go.
00:18:47 And if they post the quarterly result, there's a bit of a dip.
00:18:51 It'll be, again, a bigger opportunity to buy.
00:18:53 The other large-cap stock which I still like and would
00:18:56 recommend is Larsen and Toubro.
00:18:57 I think it's a fantastic story.
00:18:59 And it's unfolding.
00:19:00 It's not that it's kind of fully valued.
00:19:03 I think there is still a significant valuation upside
00:19:07 in Larsen as well.
00:19:09 Understood.
00:19:11 Thanks so much for some of those views.
00:19:14 But it's time for a quick breather.
00:19:17 Stick around, of course.
00:19:18 We'll dive deeper into what's happening in today's market.
00:19:22 It's an interesting day of trade.
00:19:23 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
00:19:25 We'll join you after a very short break.
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00:21:57 All right.
00:22:00 It's a slow day of trade and a slightly negative outlook
00:22:03 of trade, more of a wait and watch.
00:22:06 But definitely markets off their lows right now.
00:22:10 The nifty IT still showing a lot of pain.
00:22:13 I mean, the kind of rebound we've seen in IT stocks
00:22:16 is quite a story, considering the moves we saw
00:22:21 just after the results had come in.
00:22:23 But some of the other mid-cap names which are having a bad day
00:22:27 at the job--
00:22:28 Vodafone, definitely one of them, 4.5% down.
00:22:31 Look at the entire pharma pack, Oberoi Reality, Prestige.
00:22:35 Poonawalla Finance, Oracle Finance, a lot of the NBFCs
00:22:40 and smaller financials not doing too well.
00:22:43 Federal Bank had its numbers out today.
00:22:46 And that stock is about 2.5% down.
00:22:49 In fact, Harsh, that's something you tracked quite closely.
00:22:52 Just take us through why Federal Bank seemed
00:22:55 to be a miss for the street.
00:22:58 Well, it seems like the margin recovery, which
00:23:01 was expected to play out in this quarter,
00:23:03 as well as maybe a bit even in the last quarter,
00:23:07 doesn't seem to be picking up.
00:23:08 So margins is where I think the street is focusing on.
00:23:12 Also, the slippage number has come in slightly elevated,
00:23:14 and those two numbers are a bit of a bother for the street,
00:23:18 and justifiably so, because it's a tough deposit-taking
00:23:22 environment, and deposits are coming in
00:23:25 at a very high cost, which is definitely beating down
00:23:29 both margins as well as therefore impacting profitability.
00:23:33 And that's what we're seeing.
00:23:35 Even in terms of your gross NPAs, the ratio has gone up.
00:23:39 It's in stop a little bit.
00:23:41 Despite very strong growth, your NPA ratios inching up
00:23:44 means your gross NPAs absolute values have gone up as well.
00:23:49 So it's some of those factors which seem to be playing out
00:23:53 very sharply, and that's what markets seem to be viewing
00:23:58 not so, maybe they're not so happy about some of these things.
00:24:02 And remember your HDFC waited eagerly in the newsroom here
00:24:09 and in the studios at NDTV Profit.
00:24:11 So that, of course, one that we're watching out for,
00:24:14 and SBI is the other one.
00:24:16 So, Deep, can I come to you on SBI?
00:24:19 Before we went into the break, we were talking about
00:24:21 the city note on SBI, which doesn't seem to be
00:24:24 too excited about the stock.
00:24:25 In fact, they've put out a sell call, 600 rupee target,
00:24:29 and their concern seems to be the ROAs.
00:24:33 Harsh was explaining that the kind of provisioning
00:24:35 they've done for wages will spill over.
00:24:39 You have any take on SBI?
00:24:42 Well, I'm positive.
00:24:43 I think the point made in the report as well as by Harsh
00:24:48 about the extra provisioning which they will be requiring
00:24:51 on account of the shortfall, I think is valid.
00:24:54 But that doesn't take away from the fact that,
00:24:57 A, this is the largest bank.
00:24:59 We are in a phase where there is a significant credit growth
00:25:02 happening and it's expected to continue.
00:25:05 Three, I think the asset quality all around
00:25:08 has improved significantly.
00:25:10 Four, I think recovery from the written-off assets
00:25:13 has been happening, and I think that process
00:25:16 will get accelerated going forward.
00:25:20 Five, I think most of the subsidiaries of SBI
00:25:24 have been performing admirably well,
00:25:26 and that gives SBI an opportunity to maybe encash
00:25:31 a part of their holding and create additional capital buffer.
00:25:36 So if I'm looking at it from a long-term,
00:25:39 not this quarter, not maybe next quarter also,
00:25:42 but if I have a one-to-five-year kind of a time horizon,
00:25:45 there's absolutely no problem in state bank at current levels.
00:25:49 Right. Also, Siddhi, can I have also your views
00:25:53 with regard to any other PSU banks outside of SBI?
00:25:56 SBI, even in terms of price-to-book,
00:25:58 looks fairly attractive at this point.
00:26:01 But outside of that, would you venture into something
00:26:05 like a Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank at this point?
00:26:09 Well, Punjab National Bank, if you're an aggressive investor,
00:26:12 I would definitely recommend Punjab National Bank.
00:26:14 I think the same logic which you just said,
00:26:16 that price-to-book does look very attractive.
00:26:19 And there has been a lot of change.
00:26:21 We continue to think of these banks with the same prism
00:26:25 of five years back when they were inefficient
00:26:28 and there were a lot of lacunas in their systems and processes.
00:26:31 But we believe that things have improved quite a bit
00:26:34 and these banks are becoming stronger and stronger
00:26:37 in terms of their systems and processes.
00:26:39 And the possibility of a major disaster or a mishap,
00:26:43 like what had happened a few years back, is remote.
00:26:46 Under the circumstances, I think considering the network,
00:26:49 considering the balance sheet,
00:26:51 I think they deserve a better valuation.
00:26:54 So that's on the fundamental side.
00:26:56 Hemin, any views from a technical standpoint?
00:27:00 How are some of these PSU bank baskets of stocks looking like,
00:27:05 especially the frontline ones on charts?
00:27:10 I would, Harsh, go with the safe one, State Bank.
00:27:15 You mentioned about that Citi report,
00:27:18 but I would still maintain a bullish view on State Bank.
00:27:22 Having said that, you have even stocks like Canbank,
00:27:27 you have Banco Baroda.
00:27:29 All of them have done phenomenally well.
00:27:31 Okay, they could be in small breathers of sorts
00:27:35 and taking a break or so.
00:27:38 But the setup remains unequivocally bullish.
00:27:41 And coming back, if I can digress just a bit, Harsh,
00:27:45 if I look at the Bank Nifty, the Nifty PSU index,
00:27:51 the Nifty PSU bank index, and the Nifty private bank index,
00:27:55 all of them are pointing towards the same thing.
00:27:59 Six weeks of a consolidation.
00:28:01 Maybe the results disappoint.
00:28:03 There could be a small dip.
00:28:04 But if I were to take a two-month view,
00:28:07 the Bank Nifty is crossing 50,000.
00:28:09 And all of the three stocks I mentioned at the beginning of the show
00:28:11 are going to do well.
00:28:13 And it also means that the PSU banks won't lag behind, Harsh.
00:28:17 Right. And Himen, we're in the last half hour of trade.
00:28:21 Very, very quickly, 20 seconds maybe, your picks.
00:28:26 Buy, sell, entry, 117, stop loss 10, 110, target 131.
00:28:32 Buy, sell, sell, Lombard, 1380, 1355, target 1430.
00:28:35 One week.
00:28:37 Absolutely. That's what I like about Himen.
00:28:40 He's to the point, precise and wastes no time.
00:28:43 Stay on with us.
00:28:44 More with Himen and Sudeep after this very short break.
00:28:47 Don't go anywhere.
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00:31:13 - Welcome back, you're watching India Market Close
00:31:25 here on NDTV Profit.
00:31:27 And we have with you, well spun living,
00:31:29 the Bali Goenka joining, of course, Neeraj Shah from Davos.
00:31:34 Let's head right over there.
00:31:36 They're live from Davos.
00:31:38 (indistinct)
00:31:41 Well, the lady with us today needs no introduction.
00:31:48 She's the CEO and managing director of Wellspun Living.
00:31:52 It's well, the largest home textile company is,
00:31:54 but now doing a lot beyond that.
00:31:57 And is the Bali Goenka.
00:31:58 Thank you so much for speaking to us
00:31:59 on the sidelines of the web.
00:32:01 - Thank you.
00:32:02 - So tell us, I wanted to,
00:32:05 you gave me a cue just before the interview started
00:32:08 about what we could talk about a lot more.
00:32:10 I was trying to gauge the interest of global corporations,
00:32:13 global bankers in Indian manufacturing,
00:32:16 because it seems to be a decade of manufacturing
00:32:18 as opposed to only services.
00:32:20 Tell us a bit about this whole piece,
00:32:22 and then tell us about Wellspun Living
00:32:23 in the scheme of things.
00:32:24 - Oh, sure.
00:32:25 So I think India has become a very important piece of,
00:32:29 you know, the whole sourcing supply chain matrix
00:32:32 of a lot of the retailers globally as well.
00:32:35 And I think it's coming to life,
00:32:37 even with the kind of India being a very strategic position
00:32:42 right now, largest democracy, stable government,
00:32:46 and looking at the whole opportunity for, you know,
00:32:51 becoming, you know, kind of other countries are there
00:32:55 like China and the others.
00:32:56 But I think India is becoming a preferred destination
00:32:59 for sourcing as well.
00:33:00 So I think in the scheme of things,
00:33:02 India is in a sweet spot.
00:33:04 And if I speak about Wellspun Living here
00:33:07 and textiles here, you know,
00:33:10 India is not only the biggest grower of cotton,
00:33:13 it's the biggest exporter of cotton now.
00:33:15 And along with that, for us,
00:33:18 it's not just about towel and sheets now.
00:33:21 We spoke about Wellspun Living,
00:33:22 but it's the home solutions that we're talking about.
00:33:25 You know, the whole interesting thing that we have seen
00:33:29 is that, you know, we are becoming not just about
00:33:34 being the solution for trends, solution for innovation,
00:33:37 being a partner to sustainable way
00:33:40 of doing businesses as well.
00:33:41 And I think that's where we all are, you know,
00:33:44 where Wellspun Living is really taking this forward.
00:33:47 So one aspect is supplying to 50 countries
00:33:50 and more than 50 countries across the globe.
00:33:52 But India becoming a very critical piece for markets
00:33:56 of 1.4 billion people here.
00:33:58 And the opportunity of the Roti Kapda Makan
00:34:01 is really, truly kicking in in India.
00:34:04 And I think that's where we see a great opportunity,
00:34:07 you know, from towel, sheets, rugs, carpets,
00:34:10 and flooring as well.
00:34:12 - Interesting.
00:34:13 So I was speaking to the IKEA management yesterday,
00:34:15 and they said that they want to make more in India
00:34:18 for India and for the world.
00:34:19 So that's my question to the global companies.
00:34:21 To a large Indian company, my question would be,
00:34:23 are people coming and telling you,
00:34:25 in some fashion, you told this to me,
00:34:27 but are people coming and telling you that,
00:34:28 hey, you're doing X, why don't you do Y and Z as well?
00:34:30 So are you doing, you're doing steel,
00:34:32 you do pots and pans and cutlery as well?
00:34:34 Is that happening?
00:34:35 - Yeah, that's on the lighter side, yes.
00:34:37 That's something that people are talking about,
00:34:39 because I think people want to source out of India.
00:34:42 And I mean, we've seen the phones getting outsourced,
00:34:46 the Apple, you know, working in India,
00:34:47 the chips being made in India.
00:34:49 I think people want to look at the whole supply chain
00:34:53 from India, toys, if it is toys as well.
00:34:56 So yes, that's becoming a very interesting way
00:34:58 of looking at India as a country
00:35:00 and becoming the sourcing destination.
00:35:01 - Are you into toys as well?
00:35:02 - We are not.
00:35:03 (laughing)
00:35:05 - It's a part of home living, so this is for every house.
00:35:08 You need to, I mean, if you have a kid,
00:35:09 you need to have toys.
00:35:10 Okay, what's impressed you most thus far
00:35:13 about conversations at the WEF currently?
00:35:15 And I believe you were slew of meetings today
00:35:17 at the Congress Center where we are at,
00:35:19 which is why we couldn't do outdoors.
00:35:21 Also, it's very cold.
00:35:22 But what is it, what are the kind of conversations
00:35:24 that you've lined up for yourself with your clients,
00:35:26 with prospective other clients, what have you?
00:35:29 - You know, the interesting thing that I've seen today,
00:35:31 so sustainability really is the bedrock
00:35:35 of the conversations that's happening.
00:35:37 But the important, and sustainability at that,
00:35:39 we're talking about the scope three.
00:35:41 That's something that's really,
00:35:42 really interesting conversation that we've seen.
00:35:44 The other is the AI and the ML.
00:35:47 So I think that's a very interesting bit.
00:35:49 And I think if I talk about us,
00:35:51 and I talk about WellSpan Living here,
00:35:53 I think imagine the whole point of sales,
00:35:56 what is the kind of predictive analytics
00:35:58 that the consumer is going to buy?
00:35:59 Or after three months, whether, you know,
00:36:03 somewhere in North India, what is she going to pick up?
00:36:05 You know, or whether what is the next interesting product
00:36:10 or next interesting price
00:36:11 that the consumer is going to talk about?
00:36:13 I think the whole thing is about experiences.
00:36:15 And I think AI, ML could be interestingly,
00:36:17 really looking at a lot of things.
00:36:19 Whether it's the cotton that you know,
00:36:21 you can predict the kind of the forecast
00:36:23 and what it could be like,
00:36:24 to what the consumer is going to buy
00:36:26 or the consumer experience.
00:36:28 I think so that's something that I'm,
00:36:30 it's going to be very relevant for me.
00:36:32 But I think that's a very important conversation
00:36:35 that everybody's talking about.
00:36:37 - It's found its way into your do's and don'ts
00:36:40 regularly already?
00:36:41 - It already has actually, for me and for us at WellSpan.
00:36:45 I think when you talk about the sustainability piece
00:36:47 and the scope three, our machines have a way of,
00:36:51 you know, they're connected to, you know,
00:36:54 we measure our indexes of how much steam
00:36:56 are we going to, we are, you know, generating
00:36:58 and how we have to control that.
00:36:59 And it's all through industry 4.0.
00:37:02 And there's a towel counting mechanism that we have
00:37:05 because it also is, you know, the industrial fatigue
00:37:08 that a blue collar goes through.
00:37:09 It's all AI, ML generated.
00:37:11 We got an Ascom award for that as well.
00:37:13 So this is all finding its way inside a manufacturing.
00:37:17 Apart from that, it also will find its way
00:37:19 into the consumer experiences as well.
00:37:21 - Got it. Okay.
00:37:24 Couple of issues, if you will.
00:37:26 One, because you're such a large exporter
00:37:29 and the world growth seems to be kind of faltering.
00:37:32 Is that a worry?
00:37:33 Part one for 2024.
00:37:35 Part two on the cost front as well, the unpredictabilities.
00:37:38 While Evergrande was a blockage,
00:37:39 Red Sea isn't a blockage per se,
00:37:41 but is that increasing costs for companies such as yours
00:37:46 and how are you dealing with it?
00:37:48 - So the world is very dynamic.
00:37:51 The whole economy that we're talking about globally
00:37:53 is a little, we're in a very interesting space right now.
00:37:56 And I have always told you that, you know,
00:37:58 when I talk about us as WellSpan
00:38:00 and about the businesses globally,
00:38:02 I think America has always,
00:38:03 United States of America has been a very resilient market
00:38:06 and I've always reinstated that.
00:38:08 And I think we will, so, and you would be knowing
00:38:12 that the Fed has already been talking
00:38:14 about cutting down the rates as well.
00:38:16 So there could be kind of an upside there, yes,
00:38:19 but there are so many elements in this world
00:38:23 and somebody rightly said that, you know,
00:38:25 there are 24 countries, you know,
00:38:28 that are going for elections and, you know,
00:38:30 it's going to be a new world order for a lot of them.
00:38:32 So imagine 40%, you know, part of the world
00:38:35 is going to be very, very different
00:38:37 in a very different space as well.
00:38:38 So yeah, those are the important dynamics.
00:38:40 There's a world, you know, there's a war that's going on.
00:38:43 The Red Sea issue is definitely a kind of something
00:38:45 that we are watching and waiting what it's going to be,
00:38:48 but there could be a solution coming in by March.
00:38:51 However, I think we always believe that taking,
00:38:54 taking the destiny in your control is very, very important.
00:38:57 These dynamics are going to continue.
00:38:59 Cotton might not be growing that well somewhere,
00:39:04 but how are we looking at, you know, hedging those risks?
00:39:06 How are we looking at solutions
00:39:09 is going to be the new world order.
00:39:11 Believe me, the world has changed post COVID
00:39:14 and it's not going to be the same ever.
00:39:15 - So can I assume that it's difficult
00:39:19 to kind of nail it down to what's the quantum of impact
00:39:22 that disruptions like the geopolitics or Red Sea has
00:39:26 on if not a quarterly, then a half yearly basis,
00:39:28 is it difficult to pinpoint it down?
00:39:31 - It is going to be, we are going to wait and watch.
00:39:33 I'll tell you one thing.
00:39:34 And I think let's keep it there
00:39:36 because it's a very interesting dynamic that's at play.
00:39:39 And I think the whole global dynamics there,
00:39:44 you know, in the countries, I think let's keep it there.
00:39:47 - Okay, no problem.
00:39:49 What about the consumer, the global consumer,
00:39:50 US, Europe, et cetera?
00:39:52 Is that going to be a worry or are you hopeful?
00:39:55 - I always feel worry, look at the worry
00:39:58 or look at the opportunity.
00:40:00 And I think that's what I look at, you know, here.
00:40:02 And I think for America, United States of America,
00:40:05 the opportunity is there where, you know,
00:40:08 we at Wellspun are looking at the share of shelf
00:40:11 and how we, you know, improve that share of shelf
00:40:14 across the globe as well.
00:40:15 So whether it's not a towel or a sheet,
00:40:17 but it could be a brand that we've licensed
00:40:20 or our own brand like Christie that we have,
00:40:22 or, you know, our brands in India like Species and Wellspun.
00:40:26 So I think the whole idea here is how do you up
00:40:30 the whole share of shelf in the terms of quality,
00:40:32 ticket size, and also work with influencers,
00:40:35 like, you know, the AIDs.
00:40:36 For us, I think that's a very interesting bit of piece
00:40:39 that we, you know, we are evaluating
00:40:41 and exploring as well right now.
00:40:43 - Okay, one last thing before we wrap up.
00:40:44 We are at the start of 2024.
00:40:46 What is something new that one can expect from you?
00:40:50 I mean, the name change was something new for me
00:40:53 when I first heard about it sometime last year,
00:40:57 but what is new to be anticipated of Wellspun in 2024?
00:41:02 - So I think for us at Wellspun Living,
00:41:04 the important thing in the core is the consumer,
00:41:07 consumer globally, and what is she buying
00:41:09 or he buying globally, and what is she looking at
00:41:12 is going to be a very important bit.
00:41:14 And in the terms of the experiences that she's looking at,
00:41:17 whether it's D to C or B to C across the globe,
00:41:20 I think that's going to be a very important bit
00:41:21 of the flavor that you'll be seeing more and more
00:41:24 across the globe.
00:41:25 And the bedrock is going to be sustainability for us.
00:41:28 And I think that's where it is going to be.
00:41:29 And, you know, a key bit for us is going to be
00:41:32 about the scope tree that we'll be talking
00:41:34 about more as well.
00:41:36 - Okay, we'll talk about it during the end
00:41:37 of the quarterly results as well as going up.
00:41:39 But thank you so much for speaking to us today.
00:41:40 Have a great remainder of the Davos.
00:41:43 - Thank you.
00:41:44 - Thank you so much.
00:41:45 - And, Neeraj, thanks for tuning in.
00:41:46 - All right, Neeraj there in Davos.
00:41:51 I'm feeling cold watching Neeraj in Davos
00:41:54 in the sweltering Mumbai heat,
00:41:56 but he seems to be holding on all okay.
00:42:00 Let me quickly go across to Hemen Kapadia
00:42:02 and Sudeep Bandopadhyay.
00:42:04 I want to talk about metal stocks.
00:42:06 And, Sudeep, I'll come to you first on this.
00:42:09 Metals in an otherwise tepid market
00:42:13 are having a pretty decent day.
00:42:14 I mean, look at sales, something on Hemain's watch list
00:42:18 already up for 4.5%, Hindustan Copper,
00:42:21 Jindal, Tata Steel, the whole lot.
00:42:24 Do you reckon you're seeing a turnaround
00:42:26 in a cycle over here?
00:42:28 Anything that you would now get fresh positions on?
00:42:32 - Well, one has to remember that metals
00:42:34 is an extremely volatilized space.
00:42:37 And the rumors today going around is that China
00:42:39 is coming with a big incentive, you know,
00:42:42 to kind of rejuvenate their economy.
00:42:45 And we know that Chinese economy getting massive incentive
00:42:48 definitely augurs well for the metal prices.
00:42:51 And probably that's getting the metal stocks
00:42:52 all over the world excited today.
00:42:55 But we have seen this, you know,
00:42:56 getting played out multiple times
00:42:58 and whether or not Chinese government
00:43:00 does come up with a big incentive,
00:43:02 big, you know, big kind of support,
00:43:04 financial support plan for the economy,
00:43:06 one has to see.
00:43:08 And, you know, as things stand today,
00:43:10 it's in the realm of speculation.
00:43:12 So I won't read too much into it.
00:43:14 There is a strong possibility of Chinese government
00:43:16 giving some major, you know, subsidy or relief
00:43:21 or incentive as far as to revive the Chinese economy,
00:43:25 but we'll have to wait and watch.
00:43:26 If somebody is an aggressive investor
00:43:29 and wants to take out a position
00:43:32 in anticipation of something happening in China,
00:43:34 I think, you know, it is an extremely risky proposition.
00:43:39 - Hemin, you like sales.
00:43:40 Sales already up over 4%.
00:43:43 Would you enter at these levels
00:43:45 and anything else in the metal pack that's on your radar?
00:43:47 - Oh, frankly speaking, Tamannah,
00:43:51 if it's like you mentioned, it's 4%,
00:43:53 I wouldn't like to chase the stock
00:43:58 if I have a trading position.
00:43:59 If I am taking it from a medium term point of view, yes,
00:44:02 because I believe sales is heading towards 150,
00:44:06 but this is a six month call, not a near term call.
00:44:10 Anything else which I like?
00:44:11 Hindustan Copper has been a perennial favorite.
00:44:14 It's walked into a corrective phase, so to speak.
00:44:18 Long-term, the stock is crossing 400,
00:44:20 looks simply central it in and has done well.
00:44:23 Maybe the laws of gravity need to catch up a bit.
00:44:26 And this one other stock which looks very promising
00:44:29 is JS Revolu Steel.
00:44:31 It broke out of a 22-month consolidation phase, Tamannah,
00:44:37 and it gave a throwback, give a breakout again.
00:44:41 Once again, it's cooling off.
00:44:43 So frankly speaking, it's had a little bit of a flip-flop,
00:44:46 but I think this stock is one of the better metal stocks
00:44:49 during the calendar year 202 for Tamannah.
00:44:52 - Right, thanks for that perspective, Hemin.
00:44:55 But I'll switch focus.
00:44:57 We've spoken about financials, we've spoken about metals.
00:45:01 Let's quickly switch focus to something like an Aster DM.
00:45:03 The stock is up in a way.
00:45:05 In fact, it's hit a life high in trade today.
00:45:08 It's considering dividend on the back
00:45:12 of their Gulf business sale that they've done.
00:45:15 Dividend expected to be in the 110 to 122 people share
00:45:20 kind of a range.
00:45:21 And the plan is to distribute 70 to 80%
00:45:26 of the consideration up front as dividend.
00:45:29 And the consideration was roughly a billion dollars,
00:45:33 which is roughly seven or a thousand crore rupees,
00:45:36 900 million to be absolutely precise.
00:45:39 Let me first come in or bring in Sudeep on this.
00:45:43 Sudeep, something like an Aster DM,
00:45:46 how are you viewing this development
00:45:48 as well as how are you viewing valuations at this point?
00:45:51 - Well, I think the excitement is around the dividend.
00:45:54 And as you rightly said, the Gulf business is being sold.
00:45:57 And the dividend is definitely gonna come
00:45:59 because the promoters who are also the co-buyers
00:46:04 of the Gulf business will use the money they receive
00:46:07 out of the dividend to fund that acquisition.
00:46:10 So obviously, dividend is going to be there
00:46:12 and a substantial one at that.
00:46:14 So for a dividend play, it's a fantastic bet at this stage.
00:46:19 But considering the valuation at which it is quoting,
00:46:24 if you're not looking at just the dividend play,
00:46:26 I think it's better to wait and watch,
00:46:27 let this excitement subside.
00:46:29 Then one can look.
00:46:30 Fundamentally, there is no problem in the India business
00:46:33 and that's what Aster DM will have now.
00:46:36 And it's a good business to own,
00:46:38 but I would recommend that let this excitement be over
00:46:41 and then this can be bought.
00:46:43 - Wanna go to Himen on it?
00:46:45 Okay, so Himen, let me bring you on this one as well.
00:46:51 How is this one looking on charts?
00:46:53 It's a runaway 6.5%.
00:46:55 You seem to be in a wait and watch mode
00:46:57 where stocks have run up,
00:47:00 but are you finding this one interesting?
00:47:02 - Oh, well, frankly speaking,
00:47:05 I've shown it's sticking all boxes
00:47:09 if I were to apply the usual technical parameters,
00:47:13 but at the risk of sounding repetitive,
00:47:16 I'd still say, wait for a cool off.
00:47:18 And if you notice, we've had a huge gap up.
00:47:21 It hasn't been able to hold to the gap up levels,
00:47:25 big gap up levels, and there's still a slight open gap.
00:47:29 So I'd say anything between 385 and 390
00:47:33 would make it an interesting buy currently.
00:47:36 Everything is good, but it's not a compelling buy.
00:47:38 - You know, the Nifty Reality has now outpaced
00:47:42 the Nifty IT as the biggest loser of the day.
00:47:45 So you're seeing a lot of pressure coming in there
00:47:48 on the reality stocks,
00:47:50 the biggest losers continue to be eyeballs.
00:47:53 Among them, the whole lot actually seeing that sell off,
00:47:58 prestige, overall, et cetera.
00:48:00 Himin, anything you would pick up at this point
00:48:03 in the reality space?
00:48:04 Or wait for lower levels?
00:48:08 - I'd wait for lower levels, Samantha.
00:48:09 Frankly speaking, it's been a 10 year rounding bottom.
00:48:13 So, but having said that, that makes it past tens.
00:48:17 We've had a nine, 10 month,
00:48:19 one way move from 360 to 894
00:48:23 as far as the Nifty Reality is concerned.
00:48:26 So I'd just wait for a cool off, but yeah,
00:48:29 the way the sector index has moved
00:48:33 and the way it is poised,
00:48:35 I believe for the next couple of years,
00:48:37 it's gonna do well, but yes, currently, once again,
00:48:40 the daily chart seem to be showing a slight overbought
00:48:43 situation, intraday charts have seen
00:48:45 crossover sales coming in.
00:48:47 So a mild cool off probably is underway,
00:48:49 not too big, but yeah, I'd wait for a move.
00:48:51 - And individual, any individual names that you like
00:48:54 in reality, Himin, follow up for you.
00:48:58 - Frankly speaking, the favorites have been
00:49:00 Godrej and O'Brien.
00:49:02 So if we get any of these on a slightly decent
00:49:07 technical valuation, I'm saying technical valuation
00:49:11 in a sense that if they retrace, okay,
00:49:14 O'Brien, we are about 1526,
00:49:16 closer to 1480, 1460,
00:49:19 that would be an interesting pick at that level,
00:49:21 Tamanna.
00:49:22 So Godrej or O'Brien or both.
00:49:23 - Okay, so O'Brien at 1480, so some ways to go,
00:49:26 some ways to go before you come to 1480 there.
00:49:29 Fundamentally, Sudip, any views on the whole reality story
00:49:33 and where that next driver actually comes from?
00:49:36 - Well, to my mind, the next driver comes from
00:49:39 the interest rate reduction in the economy.
00:49:41 I think if you have noticed the entire real estate space,
00:49:45 particularly residential over the last one,
00:49:47 one and a half years, I think this is the high end
00:49:52 of the real estate market, which has been very excited.
00:49:55 Whereas the low and medium range hasn't been that exciting.
00:49:59 I think the high interest rate does impact that segment.
00:50:03 And once the interest rate starts coming down
00:50:05 in the economy, which should happen sooner than later,
00:50:09 I think that segment will get excited
00:50:11 and we will see once again, positive bias,
00:50:15 positive move in the real estate pack.
00:50:19 As far as the entire universe is concerned,
00:50:23 we of course continue to like Godrej
00:50:24 and Oberoi Realty for long term,
00:50:29 but Shoba also can be looked at
00:50:32 amongst the South-based developers.
00:50:34 I think Shoba is also interestingly poised
00:50:36 and at current level, it does look interesting.
00:50:40 - Right, let me quickly switch over
00:50:44 because we have been expecting HDFC Bank's numbers
00:50:48 to come through, but that's not yet happened.
00:50:51 We're very close to close, we're probably 10 minutes away.
00:50:55 And let me quickly try and address what the expectations
00:51:00 are from HDFC Bank with regard to its Q3 numbers.
00:51:04 We have Vishy standing by to tell us more
00:51:08 about what we can expect from the numbers.
00:51:11 Vishy, over to you.
00:51:12 - HDFC Bank is set to announce its third quarter results
00:51:17 on Tuesday, where the bank is expected to report
00:51:20 a marginal dip or a flat net profit
00:51:24 on a quarter on quarter basis.
00:51:25 What analysts are pointing out is that there's likely
00:51:28 to be a slightly higher provision requirement
00:51:31 during the third quarter, primarily because
00:51:33 the Reserve Bank of India has raised the risk weights
00:51:35 on certain unsecured loans, which makes it
00:51:38 a slightly more expensive for the banks
00:51:40 to lend out this kind of money.
00:51:41 Apart from that, the net interest income
00:51:43 for the bank is expected to rise by about 8 odd percent.
00:51:47 That is what the analysts are estimating at this stage.
00:51:49 What we do understand is that deposit growth
00:51:52 is likely to be slightly slower
00:51:54 than what was previously anticipated,
00:51:56 while the loan growth is likely to remain stable.
00:52:00 Now, of course, when the bank released
00:52:01 its provisional figures, what the bank had pointed out
00:52:04 was that total advances would rise about 5%
00:52:06 on a quarter on quarter basis,
00:52:08 to a little over 24.6 lakh crore,
00:52:11 close to 24.7 lakh crore, while on the total deposit front,
00:52:14 you would see deposits rise about 1.9% quarter on quarter,
00:52:19 a little less than the 2% mark,
00:52:21 while with deposits lower than advances
00:52:24 at 22.14 lakh crore.
00:52:26 Now, all of this points to a situation
00:52:28 because a bunch of loans were transferred
00:52:31 into the HDFC Bank portfolio
00:52:32 because of the merger with HDFC Limited.
00:52:34 However, on the deposit front,
00:52:35 the bank is still catching up,
00:52:37 and therefore, the credit deposit ratio for the bank
00:52:39 is on the higher side above the 100% mark.
00:52:43 However, the bank is expected to increase
00:52:45 its branch network over the coming year,
00:52:47 and thereby improve the deposit numbers
00:52:50 in the coming quarters.
00:52:51 What we also understand is that the NIMP position
00:52:54 for the bank is likely to have bottomed out
00:52:56 in the second quarter,
00:52:57 and from the third quarter onwards,
00:52:59 we're likely to see the net interest margin
00:53:00 improve quarter on quarter at least
00:53:03 with the CASA ratio also improving for HDFC Bank.
00:53:07 - Right.
00:53:09 Interesting in terms of what the expectations
00:53:12 seem to be like.
00:53:14 Margins is gonna be one key number,
00:53:16 but let me quickly take it to Sudeep.
00:53:18 Sudeep, what are the key metrics that you'll be tracking
00:53:21 when HDFC comes out with its numbers?
00:53:24 What are the two, three, maybe absolutely key
00:53:28 non-negotiables, if I can call it,
00:53:30 that you'll be looking out for?
00:53:32 - I think that's only one I would say,
00:53:35 particularly metrics.
00:53:37 That is the NIMP.
00:53:39 I think we all know, and I think that was what
00:53:41 the industry and the whole market knows,
00:53:43 that HDFC Bank needs to raise a lot of deposits,
00:53:46 and they have been working on that.
00:53:48 I think the HDFC Limited merger
00:53:49 has put that responsibility on them.
00:53:53 And in this process, the expectation is that
00:53:55 the cost probably will go up,
00:53:57 and if the cost of money goes up in HDFC Bank's hand,
00:54:02 then the net interest margin will get squeezed.
00:54:04 Now, market will not like that,
00:54:06 and one needs to understand what kind of pressure
00:54:09 on margin is coming, if at all it is coming.
00:54:12 And if there is no pressure on margin,
00:54:13 and margin keeps improving,
00:54:15 in spite of the new deposit mobilization,
00:54:19 market will give it a thumbs up.
00:54:20 Now, remember, this is also critical.
00:54:23 Deposit mobilization is also critical
00:54:25 from the point of view of the fact that
00:54:26 there is a good credit growth happening in the economy,
00:54:29 and expectation is that credit growth will continue.
00:54:32 Now, if there is, you know,
00:54:35 the credit book has to increase for HDFC Bank,
00:54:38 they need to mobilize deposits as well proportionately.
00:54:42 If they cannot do that matching deposit raising
00:54:46 through CASA, their margins will eventually
00:54:49 come under pressure, and the loan book growth
00:54:52 will get slowed down.
00:54:53 So I think the entire deposit mobilization piece
00:54:56 and its impact on NIM is what we will watch out for.
00:55:00 Just, Heman, if you have a quick view on HDFC
00:55:04 and your BTSD calls, before we wrap up,
00:55:08 you know, at the risk of repeating myself
00:55:10 a pretty wobbly day.
00:55:12 I am positive on HDFC.
00:55:13 I won't like to second guess the numbers,
00:55:15 but I still stick my neck out and say BTSD on HDFC Bank.
00:55:19 Yeah, just HDFC?
00:55:22 Yeah, because frankly speaking,
00:55:25 we've downed for 11 trading sessions,
00:55:27 oversold, crossover buys, positive divergence,
00:55:30 it's ticking all boxes.
00:55:31 Yeah, once again, the results are that
00:55:34 it's a different kettle of fish, but I still say HDFC.
00:55:37 All right, that's a big one.
00:55:40 BTSD on HDFC, just moments before,
00:55:43 to be honest, we've been saying moments before
00:55:45 for the last hour, I'm not sure when those numbers will come,
00:55:48 but it's fairly clear that you're going to see
00:55:51 the stock impact only tomorrow in trade.
00:55:55 The question really for closing
00:55:57 and just the last few minutes of closing
00:55:59 is whether we're going to manage to close
00:56:01 above the 22,000 mark on the nifty,
00:56:04 or are we going to see some last minutes
00:56:06 of pressure coming in?
00:56:09 Heman, if we do manage to stay above 22,000,
00:56:12 what would be the next levels of support
00:56:15 that you're seeing and resistance?
00:56:16 Okay, we are frankly speaking,
00:56:19 slightly out of resistance levels, Tamanna,
00:56:22 just maybe 22,120.
00:56:25 Okay, if I were to sort of fine tune it further
00:56:28 for on the hourly charts,
00:56:29 resistance comes in at 22,080, 22,120.
00:56:33 Support comes in at 21,963 and 21,901.
00:56:38 So these are untested
00:56:42 because they've just recently formed, Tamanna.
00:56:45 So 21,901 on the upside,
00:56:50 but you are seeing a bout of weakness over there.
00:56:53 Would you do anything at all, Heman,
00:56:56 right now with the nifty IT,
00:56:59 looking at the kind of, I wouldn't call it a free fall,
00:57:02 but a one-sided direction that we've seen
00:57:05 since start of trade today?
00:57:07 I would still look to buy, Tamanna,
00:57:12 26,000 to 38,000 in 8 months.
00:57:16 I mean, that's awesome.
00:57:18 If we break up this current move
00:57:20 and the current segment, Tamanna,
00:57:22 we move from 34,000 to 36,000,
00:57:26 to 37,929 in three weeks.
00:57:30 So frankly speaking, it's been hunky-dory all the way.
00:57:33 There was a gap which has been,
00:57:35 where it has made an attempt to cover up,
00:57:37 has just about missed covering up.
00:57:39 So outlook is bullish.
00:57:41 I am positive on the NASDAQ also,
00:57:43 and our nifty IT index also.
00:57:47 Top idea on the IT space, Heman, at this point?
00:57:51 Okay, I think Mastech is something which looks good.
00:57:55 OFSH, Oracle Finance, looks great on a cool off.
00:58:00 Okay, Mastech and Oracle Finance is what Heman likes.
00:58:06 Well, just a couple of minutes to go.
00:58:07 I want to thank Heman and Sudip,
00:58:09 both for joining us on the show today.
00:58:11 Harsh, we're looking like we're down
00:58:13 for not a very great close,
00:58:14 but all things considered,
00:58:16 it's not been any kind of a bloodbath either.
00:58:19 Maybe just a small hiccup
00:58:22 in the kind of markets that we're seeing.
00:58:25 Absolutely, Tamanna, especially the rally
00:58:26 that we've seen over the last three odd days,
00:58:29 which is Thursday, Friday, as well as Monday.
00:58:32 This cool off is not something
00:58:33 that anyone would complain for.
00:58:35 We're down around a third of a percent,
00:58:38 thereabouts, but you're still holding up
00:58:40 above that 22,000 mark, just about 65 odd points lower.
00:58:45 Even the bank nifty, absolutely flat,
00:58:48 flat as you like, slight negative bias,
00:58:50 but holding up above that 48,100 mark as well.
00:58:54 So, couple of positives coming through.
00:58:56 Let's quickly have a look at the advance decline
00:58:59 and pull up that chart,
00:59:01 because clearly it's currently in favor of the declines
00:59:05 and sharply in favor of the declines.
00:59:08 You're seeing almost a three to one
00:59:11 in favor of the declines
00:59:13 and that reversal playing out somewhere midday,
00:59:16 after which it's been a bit of a correction.
00:59:20 Let's go to broader market shift focus,
00:59:22 because they're largely in line
00:59:24 where we see it to the benchmark as well,
00:59:28 around four tenths of a percent lower for the mid cap,
00:59:30 the small cap index also,
00:59:32 somewhere around a half a percent lower.
00:59:35 So, it's a rather similar kind of a day
00:59:40 that we're seeing across the board,
00:59:44 when it comes to benchmarks as well as broader markets.
00:59:47 You know, I'm gonna quickly take it to some names in focus.
00:59:49 You have the likes of a BPCL,
00:59:51 which is the top gainer on the nifty today,
00:59:54 but the markets have closed as we speak.
00:59:58 So that's one piece,
00:59:59 but you're seeing a sustained 33 odd stocks
01:00:02 in the decline today.
01:00:04 You have the likes of an HDFC Bank,
01:00:08 which will be in focus on the back of earnings,
01:00:10 which has closed higher by around a third of a percent.
01:00:13 Thereabouts, you also have the heavyweights,
01:00:16 the likes of a Reliance,
01:00:17 which will be in focus later in the week
01:00:19 on the back of earnings.
01:00:20 You have an LTI MindTree, whose earnings are in focus.
01:00:22 It's gonna be an earnings heavy week
01:00:24 when it comes to this particular screen.
01:00:27 Tamana, even in terms of sectoral indices,
01:00:30 if you can quickly have that,
01:00:31 you have a mixed bag
01:00:33 when it comes to the sectoral indices.
01:00:35 And that's been the case through the day, Tamana.
01:00:38 Nifty Metal was a top loser yesterday,
01:00:40 the top gainer in trade today.
01:00:42 - Yep, yep.
01:00:43 Remember, focus will be on Asian paints
01:00:47 and a whole host of other companies
01:00:49 which are coming out with their numbers tomorrow,
01:00:51 LTTM also in focus.
01:00:53 I just quickly want to take you through
01:00:55 what has ended the day with big gains.
01:00:57 And second session in a row,
01:01:00 IRFC closes up with 9% raise.
01:01:05 SAIL doing very well today.
01:01:07 Remember, SAIL was your top call
01:01:08 from our technical analysts
01:01:09 as soon as we started the show today.
01:01:11 Paytm on the back of that UBS note up about 4.5%.
01:01:15 Zee Entertainment is closed with a very good gain
01:01:20 for the day ahead of a decision on their merger.
01:01:23 News Polycab, Yes Bank, all of them have done very well.
01:01:26 I'll just quickly take you through the top mid-cap losers.
01:01:29 Vodafone, Prestige, Oracle, Finn,
01:01:31 all have done badly as have Oberoi Reality
01:01:34 and Oro Pharma as well.
01:01:36 But another big day tomorrow
01:01:38 and we'll wait and see what happens with HDFC Bank.
01:01:40 Remember, the results, their analysis,
01:01:43 all of that right here on NDTV Profit.
01:01:45 We'll take a quick break,
01:01:46 but thank you for joining us on this show.
01:01:48 Stay tuned for more.
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