Analysis: It's Not Losing Nauru, It's the Failure To Stop Beijing
Nauru's decision to break diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China was likely brokered before Taiwan's presidential election, international affairs scholar Yen Chen-shen tells TaiwanPlus.
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00:00 Now that Nauru has broken diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it's at a historic low with just
00:05 12 allies.
00:07 How big of an impact does Nauru leaving have on Taiwan's foreign affairs?
00:12 A country like Nauru, so small in the Pacific island, probably can be explained away.
00:20 But this will not be able to explain away the fact that we have lost 10 diplomatic allies.
00:29 Since Tsai Ing-wen took office, and since Lai Ching-de already pledged to continue to
00:37 toy the line of Tsai Ing-wen, I don't think there will be any dialogue or interaction
00:45 with Beijing.
00:46 We will continue to lose diplomatic allies.
00:48 But I didn't expect it come so fast.
00:51 It's just a few hours later, you learn about Nauru.
00:55 But this, I think, is what China has worked on before the election, but just waiting for
01:02 the result of the election.
01:04 So it can use that to maybe making a statement about the reaction of Beijing is a continuation
01:14 of poaching Taiwan's diplomatic ally since we have elected a DPP government.
01:21 China has been trying to increase its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
01:26 Do you think China establishing ties with Nauru shows Beijing's strategic interests
01:31 there, or is it really just about Taiwan?
01:35 I don't know whether China is trying to make a statement, just like they are trying to
01:43 get Swaziland or Eswatini to their side so that have a complete sweep of the African
01:51 continent.
01:52 Do they have a complete sweep of the Pacific Island in mind?
01:56 I'm not sure.
01:57 But strategically, Nauru is not as important.
02:01 But the more important thing is it does represent that Australia, the country, the power in
02:11 the region cannot stop or cannot keep the Pacific Island country from moving to Beijing's
02:19 side, just like the U.S. cannot stop the Latin American ally of Taiwan to switch diplomatic
02:27 recognition.
02:29 You mentioned Taiwan losing many of its allies under DPP presidencies.
02:33 And now that Lai Ching-teh has secured a historic third straight term for the party, what do
02:38 you see being the worst case scenario for Taiwan's diplomatic relations?
02:44 Worst case scenario is we will have probably a single digit of diplomatic allies.
02:50 Our government has, to me, they have anticipated this.
02:54 So in the past few years, I can see that we have moved on to more important substantial
03:02 relations with non-diplomatic allies.
03:05 But without diplomatic allies in the Caribbean or Central America, our president cannot even
03:13 have a transit stop in the U.S.
03:16 Then we would truly be isolated.
03:18 [BLANK_AUDIO]