2024.. العالم تحت تهديد توسع دائرة الصراعات العالمية
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00:00 The year 2024 has many consequences and disturbances that were intensified during the past two years, which I described as the worst, the most severe and the most violent since the end of the Cold War.
00:16 The year 2024 remains a hot page with the continuation of geopolitical tensions and wars in many areas that are misguided by the global economy.
00:29 We look at what is happening in the conflict, starting in Gaza. The war in Gaza was completed on the 100th day, and the conflict continues and the losses continue at the human and human level, in addition to the material losses.
00:47 The human losses are not compensated, and the material losses are still there and continue during this period. This is also the case, and the war in Gaza was not limited to this area alone, but it expanded by the entry of other parties.
01:03 Among them, of course, the Houthis, who entered the area of conflict by directing strikes and attacks on ships passing through the door of the port and the Red Sea.
01:16 This is the first time that the United States, Britain and many other countries have entered the area of conflict, threatening the international trade and the interests of the United States.
01:33 We have seen different strikes in a number of Houthi sites, and we have seen increasing tensions in the area, and the possibility of the entry of other parties, perhaps Iran, which is the biggest fear of Iran's intervention in this war, as it is a supporter of the Houthis.
01:51 Therefore, the entry of Iran in this war may add more burdens to the Hormuz Strait, specifically not only the Strait of Bab el-Mandab, which is controlled by the Houthis, but also the Hormuz Strait on the other hand, which has greatly controlled the oil trade.
02:07 We also look at the effects since the beginning of 2024. Oil prices recorded a profit of almost 2% and with the disruption of ships passing and the change of routes from the Red Sea and then the Suez Canal to the road of the head of the Salih hope, we have seen a decline in the interest rates in the Suez Canal since the beginning of 2024 by 40% and a decrease in the movement of ships by 30%.
02:31 We are talking about a few days in January, and this may continue because companies are still preventing ships from passing through this area due to security issues.
02:42 Also, the trade has increased shipping prices by 173% since the beginning of this year, only due to the length of distances, the economic cost and the security risks that companies bear.
02:57 In Beijing and Taipei, there is also a conflict in another area from the east in the far east after the election of a new president opposed to China, which is Lai Ching-Ti, who was elected president.
03:08 This president, who China describes as a troublemaker, is a war-loving person.
03:14 In general, the conflict between Taiwan and China has caused many research institutions to expect that if there is a war, the cost will be more than 2 trillion dollars on the global economy.
03:29 Taiwan is currently the center of the manufacture of lubricants in the world, or what is called the "silicon shield" for Taiwan, because it manufactures 90% of the world's production of lubricants.
03:40 We also witnessed, in return for China, the United States and its companies, which support Taiwan in arms deals, which were estimated at 300 million dollars.
03:51 There were also penalties last year for other companies.
03:55 The Russian-Ukrainian war has also continued, and the expectations of the continuation of this war and the so-called "International Monetary Fund" are still there.
04:05 The economic impact is expected to be 2.5% of the total local GDP. Russia is expected to grow its economy from 22% to 24% by 1.2%, and the Ukrainian economy by 25%, based on the 28% increase in the year 2022 as a result of the war.
04:25 The global economy and the world in general, with tensions in the different countries, remains on a hot page in 2024.