- #BajajAuto, #Praveg and #Zee in focus
- #TataMotors' Q3 business update
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #TataMotors' Q3 business update
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00 On what has otherwise been a pretty good day. Yeah, so, you know some stocks may have come off like yesterday's media winners for example
00:06 Which is not just Zee but Network 18, TV18 etc are all down in trade today
00:12 So that is part one GMR Infra won the case against dial but has come off as well today
00:18 So that's the other thing the INOX twins are down for second day on a trot
00:22 So some of these high-flying names have certainly come off
00:24 Let's talk about what to do in a market like this
00:27 Amar Dev Singh, head advisory at Angel One with us on the show and we'll also get in Pankaj Pandey
00:33 head of research at ICICI Direct
00:35 On the fundamentals gentlemen, both of you. Thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us. Good afternoon
00:40 Amar, I'll come to you first this
00:43 Bank nifty scare and not really a big scare, but this sharp
00:47 Gash that we've seen in the last 20 minutes. Does it prompt you to do anything or you will let it pass?
00:53 Yeah, I would say
00:57 Look at the markets
00:59 Clearly on the on the short-term charts, there is some sort of
01:03 consolidation happening and also there is a
01:07 There is more or less if you look at the daily charts clearly tells that there is some sort of pressure on the higher levels
01:14 so having said that what we what we saw today was more of a I would say it was a
01:20 good run up and then there was sharp sell-off which happened and
01:24 Technically the charts what is playing that there is on the short-term charts. Definitely. There is some sort of
01:30 I was a weakness of consolidation medium term and long term
01:34 They continue to remain strong and positive and if we look at the advances versus decline even even now as we speak after the correction
01:42 from the peaks still the advances are
01:45 higher in terms of declines
01:47 so I would say that the levels to watch out for bank nifty at the
01:52 At the current level somewhere would be around forty seven thousand one fifty forty seven thousand two hundred
01:58 That's a that's a immediate zone of support where we could witness some pullback
02:03 but again high levels would be sold into because we are seeing this sort of consolidation and also what we are seeing is that
02:08 somewhere on the upside forty seven thousand eight hundred forty eight thousand that's a level where a lot of
02:13 Profit booking is also happening and some short positions also are being predicted
02:18 And if you look at the heavyweight stocks of each DFC or ICICI
02:23 They are also really indicating that
02:26 The daily charts are not very strong they moved into if I look at a DFC so HDFC has moved into oversold
02:35 Territory and close to support level so we could witness some consolidation because these two have the
02:41 maximum weightage in terms of
02:44 back nifty and ICICI also displaying a similar pattern with regard to
02:49 HDFC so will you take any trades Amar currently?
02:53 I mean I heard you speak about a lot of things including the banking stocks. What are the top trades at this hour? I
02:58 Would say I would look at the NBFC is one NBC sees one stock definitely
03:04 I would look at it because it's very strong on the charts. We've seen some some consolidation over the last
03:13 Couple of days, but again, there has been a breakout
03:15 so this is one stock one can definitely look at because it's is a long way to go and the way the stock has been
03:21 Rallying on a significant volume
03:24 So if you look at the days where the stocks have where the stock has rallied significantly there
03:29 We see that volume and delivery quantity both have increased significantly as compared to the last 30 days of 50 days average
03:35 So that's a positive also on the medium term intermediate term and the long term trend that continues to remain positive
03:40 And if we go back in time the stock at a point of time had made a high of almost 140 levels
03:45 So it's currently around 1991. So there is a lot of opportunity here in this stock
03:50 so one can look at NBC see buying at the current levels with our target of 104 and a stop-loss of 83 and this other
03:57 stock to look at is
03:59 Apollo tires
04:01 This is again one stock quite strong technically on the charts. It has been in for consolidation
04:06 We've seen some positive upside today. It's up almost 3%
04:10 but ideally it needs to sustain above the
04:14 475 480 levels for any major or meaningful rally
04:18 So that's a level to watch out for sustaining about 475 40 then the stock would rally towards the 500 mark
04:24 The stock has formed a strong base around our support zone around 435 440
04:30 All right
04:32 I just want to make a mention of a few sectors that are doing fairly
04:37 Well, the nifty ID actually holding on fairly strong, even though you're seeing some amount of
04:42 profit booking in the bank nifty
04:45 Reality stocks having another good day with Godrej properties up about three and a half percent DLF Oberoi
04:50 Phoenix Mills Brigade again doing fairly well today. The Brigade is off its highs of the day
04:57 if I see
04:59 Yeah, Brigade is definitely off its highs of the day, but overall have been having a good day
05:04 Pankaj Pandey is also with us. He's head research ICSA direct Pankaj. Hi great to speak with you on India market close
05:10 Let's begin with you know your take on
05:14 The kind of selling pressure some of it that we're seeing
05:17 during close and whether you see the momentum sustaining going into what is a very volatile week in terms of news flow you
05:26 Have the IT results coming in not very clear what's happening on the global news front
05:31 What is the kind of strategy you adopt at this point?
05:34 So hi
05:37 Thanks for having me see on the markets our senses that we are sort of
05:42 consolidating in this range of 300 to 400 point kind of range so between
05:46 21,500 to 21,800 types and
05:50 Last week we had seen nifty gaining by 1% mid caps and small caps were up about 2 or 3 odd percent
05:56 I think markets have done well last week some bit of a consolidation at current levels
06:02 My thing should not be a cause of worry. I think domestic inflows have been quite robust and
06:08 Which is why I feel that the multiples are not going to sort of structurally contract for markets
06:14 I think going forward markets will largely deliver in line with the overall
06:19 Corporate earning growth of say 14-15 odd percent. So we have a net free target of 25,000
06:24 Near-term. I think the bias will change if we cross 21,800 kind of a levels
06:30 Nothing much is expected from IT sort of numbers
06:33 So probably that may not really provide any kind of a big direction to the market
06:38 But yes, our sense is that you are seeing decent amount of sector
06:43 Rotation happening with PSUs or pharma sort of doing relatively better
06:48 IT my thing probably is
06:51 Still going to sort of do more of a consolidation and if any sort of positive and new stricter comes by I think
06:57 Metal is offering a good risk reward
07:00 Pankaj, you know, I just want to get a sense from you on another
07:06 buzzing stock that we've been covering through the day, which is Zee with all of those flip-flops and ups and downs
07:14 now some
07:17 Clarification coming in from the company that they're still in conversation
07:20 Would you go in for a trade right now on Zee or you'd stay away till things are clearer?
07:25 I think it is better to sort of stay away till things sort of clear up largely because see the
07:32 Zee Sony merger has got all the necessary approvals
07:35 But the merger has been sort of delayed for more than six months and with possibility of our timelines getting extended
07:42 now
07:44 Post merger or our overall sense is that combined entity will be a lot more better to sort of look at
07:50 Because two three things one that we look at industry or all is sort of consolidating
07:55 You're already hearing the merger between the same reliance and star and if this duo combines
08:02 Also combines up I think our sense is that you will see far more better ad rates
08:09 And typically our sense is that second half is better for ad revenue growth rate
08:14 So I think this company has already struggled in terms of margins
08:18 So margins which used to be about 20% or has come down to a single digit our sense is that
08:24 It might take 18 to 24 months for these margins to get normalized
08:29 But I think the combined entity will get some bit of a bargaining power and will have decent market share of 26% of the overall
08:36 revenue share and
08:38 With a combined of 14,000 or plus crores. So I think better it will be better if we sort of
08:45 get all the clarity and then only we sort of
08:48 Take a call on the stock because I think like I said, it's been delayed for six months
08:54 We don't know how what we did extend the timeline would be
08:57 Okay
08:59 Some some news flow Tamanna and suffice to say Indian Airlines are probably
09:05 Safe as opposed to the issues that were thought to be. Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying that news coming in
09:11 Bloomberg flashes right now talking about
09:14 Boeing a saying that they want to check all their seven three seven nine maxes in case you've not followed that story and Alaska Air flight
09:22 Soon after takeoff had its door open just imagine the horror of that if you're sitting in that flight, but world over the FAA has
09:31 recalled a large number of these specific kind of aircrafts the DGCA is saying that out of the
09:37 40 in India of that particular type of aircraft. That's the Boeing max max seven three seven nine
09:43 They found no problem in 39 and one had a washer missing now
09:48 I'm not sure which one had a washer missing but suffice to say if you look at spice jet in ago
09:52 No issues at all
09:53 In fact, I want to extend that and just pull up some of those stocks anything to do with tourism right now is
09:59 in another
10:01 Stratosphere interglobe spice jet. Let's look at IHCL. Look at easy trip. Look at Yatra
10:08 all of these Indian hotels any of them a lemon tree
10:13 Extend to railways IRCTC all of them seeing a
10:19 Big big proof boost right now and may I hasten to add one company called traffic?
10:26 Praveik is on some other trajectory. I'm not quite understanding what's happening here. You did a story today
10:31 Neeraj about the Ayodhya effect and
10:34 You know, it's it's it's interesting because it's something that's doing the round on social media for several days
10:39 But to think that this would qualify into an impact on
10:44 Companies businesses is sentiment driving these stocks and and maybe some rationale as well
10:50 So if luxury tourism picks up as you were telling me they have presence there
10:54 They have the only tent city in Ayodhya and if that does have see we have no idea by the way about
11:00 The quantum of bookings that have happened, but if their tent city does have bookings then that's earnings accretive as well
11:07 Remember, there's a low-cost model. It's not a brick and mortar a hotel chain that they run its tents and essentially that kind of
11:14 said the Statue of Unity at runoff cuts, etc, etc, so therefore
11:21 Maybe the break even at 25% occupancy who knows but clearly a stock that is buzzing and just mind-boggling what's happening here
11:28 Really the Tate trailing to our own speed by the way just before you go to me also
11:31 But the trailing to our own speed Amana for Praveik is 130 times
11:35 Of course, it's trailing
11:37 So the futuristic earnings if they pick up because the management is on record saying that from 90 crores of sales
11:42 They will do 300 crores in fi25. So if they do that, then great but trading 12 months is very expensive
11:48 So anyone we've spoken to in the space and we've had conversations with lemon tree
11:52 I hcl recently is very very bullish but you know, just the reason I talked about sentiment
11:57 I had a conversation with easy trip today and that stock has been up
12:01 That was one of the first when this whole Lakshadweep fracca Maldives Lakshadweep thing broke out
12:05 they were the first to say we're not going to sell any more packages to Maldives chalo Lakshadweep and
12:10 when you talk to them, the fact is that there's one airliner day so far going into Lakshadweep and
12:17 very few hotels
12:18 Of course, this will change. Of course Indian
12:21 Islands are beautiful. Of course, the infrastructure will come in but there is time for this to happen
12:28 And when it does I don't even know if such tiny
12:32 Ecosensitive places can handle the influx of Indian tourists
12:35 You're talking about a huge number and huge might when it comes to purchasing power
12:39 Yeah, but I'm hopeful that between Andaman Lakshadweep, etc. We get the bearings going but yeah
12:45 So that is one buzzing stock
12:47 But okay
12:48 We need to move on and get in my colleague Mika was waiting by before we hit into that break
12:52 With the other volume buzzers of the session Mika. What do you good afternoon? Good afternoon
12:57 So our top volume buzzer was Johnson's control which you know traded at seven point seven six times
13:02 It's 30 day average and went to an intraday high of eight point five percent. No specific trigger
13:06 But the company does stand to benefit from the latest
13:10 amendments by the central government on the quality control of for air conditioners
13:14 Components then we have Ashoka Bilgaon trading at seven times as 30 day average went to an intraday high of eleven point seven percent
13:21 This is the most the stock has surged in 14 weeks and this was on back of multiple large trades
13:28 16.32 lakh shares changed hands at a price and
13:32 1.35 lakh shares changed hand at a highest price of one fifty nine point three rupees
13:37 Then we have tried in to which rose to an intraday high of nine point seven five percent
13:41 Now Trident has been gaining for the seven straight session and it also scaled to its 52 week high of 70
13:47 Fifty two point eight five rupees. The stock is up 33 percent in the past
13:52 Six sessions and has been gaining since a capacity enhancement announcement back in December on December 29th
13:59 Then we have poly cap India, which is down eight point two two percent
14:03 It was trading six point eight five times as 30 day average
14:06 Now this is the highest fall the company has seen since December 2022 and this came after media reports stated that
14:13 Income authorities have found evidence of tax evasion worth two billion rupees. And lastly we have galaxy surf
14:20 surface tense at which is amino trading on not reading high on large trades three lakh shares changed hands at a price of
14:28 2758 rupees and the bulk deals totaled on eighty two point six crore
14:34 You got thanks for that time now for a quick breather, but stick around
14:37 We dwell deeper into the market moment and also speak to Bajaj autos Rakesh Sharma on the other side
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15:59 Welcome back you're just about half an hour
16:02 Ahead of market close and markets definitely off their days highs
16:08 You're seeing a bit of selling pressure coming in specially on the banking side the bank nifty
16:12 Down not too much less than about half a percent. But yeah, you can see from that chart that it sort of fell off a cliff
16:19 Just a short while ago
16:21 What are the reasons for that? We're going to get into that
16:23 But I just want to focus on one sector which has interesting data coming in and you're seeing positive responses pertaining to it
16:29 The life insurance sector data for December shows growth softening for all life insurers barring SBI
16:36 Life and if you just look at it the total premium of private life insurers is up
16:42 4.1 percent year-on-year, but SBI lives total premium is up 21%
16:48 Year-on-year max lives total premium is up about 18% year-on-year that stock also up in the green
16:56 I say approved lives total
16:58 premium is at a hundred and
17:00 1497 crores up 3%
17:03 So a bit of a weak figure there relatively HDFC lives total premium is also up just about
17:11 3.3 percent while Bajaj Alliance lives total premium is up three and a half percent
17:16 But the big one LIC has seen total premiums up
17:20 94% on the back of strong growth in group single
17:25 Premiums and individual single premiums at about 2,000 crore rupees
17:29 Let's just get a quick view from our guests at this point on you know, how they view the space and of course the ongoing
17:38 Weakness that we're seeing in the financial space as well Pankaj
17:42 Let me come to you first on your take on the insurance numbers and how you see this pack
17:46 Which ones do you like would you bet on LIC despite having the largest market share?
17:51 Would you just seeding quickly does it look like there's more on the table?
17:55 So I think on the life insurance phase our sense is that SBI life has
18:02 caught a better balanced portfolio between participating and non participating products and
18:07 typically their growth rate in the last 18-24 months have been relatively better than
18:12 compared to peers and that is the only stock which is done relatively better from a price performance perspective and
18:19 I think they continue to sort of do well largely because I think
18:24 Because of the overall penetration what they're aiming for across SBI branches. So I think that is so the stock is
18:32 Is something which we like and I think LIC we're not too sure at this point in time
18:38 because a couple of things while the government stake is still high while they've got some time to sort of
18:45 prune down their stake, but our sense is that
18:49 LIC is still sort of traditional very traditional kind of up there
18:53 So operational efficiencies are yet to creep in which is where I think probably
18:58 it might take a lot more time for them to sort of
19:02 Kind of deliver numbers the way private peers do
19:08 So LIC is something we would not really sort of choose at this point in time
19:13 But SBI life I think continues to do very well
19:17 But within the BFSI space what we like more is
19:20 something like say the micro finance space the likes of Spandana Spurthy or
19:25 Even MSME lenders like SBI Finance
19:28 So I think these are the companies where AUM growth is expected to be a lot more higher 35-40 odd percent
19:34 And I think we like this space more within the entire BFSI space
19:40 Spandana Spurthy definitely in the BFSI space is something that Pankaj likes. Amar
19:46 Are any of these insurance names on your radar?
19:49 And what do you reckon is the reason for the kind of weakness we're seeing in the bank nifty right now?
19:54 Yeah, I would say that
19:57 We look at first of all the insurance
20:00 space
20:02 LIC is definitely strong on the charts technically, but it's approaching a key zone of resistance somewhere around
20:09 840 850 level so any pullback in the stock towards
20:14 7750 odd levels that can be a good level of entry and looking at the way bank nifty has corrected
20:20 I would see that it's more of
20:22 The heavyweights like for example HDFC Bank. We've seen some sharp correction today
20:29 So so that's and that has a major weightage
20:33 So because if I look at HDFC Bank, it's not been able to sustain over the 1700 mark
20:38 If I look at ICICI Bank, it's not able to reach its all-time high of
20:42 1060 1070 so that's a zone of resistance for ICICI Bank and
20:47 Talking about HDFC that again has a resistance around the 1700 mark
20:51 However, having said that what I see is that both these banks which have a significant weightage in bank nifty
20:57 They are very strongly supported at lower levels. So for
21:00 HDFC somewhere around I would say
21:03 1600 1620 that's a very strong support zone where it would find with some sort of
21:11 Support and looking at ICICI Bank again. ICICI Bank has got good support coming on the 950 odd levels
21:17 So it's not very far off. That's the reason we will see some sort of consolidation in bank nifty also
21:21 Okay, we slip into a very quick break on that note stay on German we come back talk to
21:31 Bajaj Auto
21:33 Prepare for the launch of the weapon project summit get in some closing strategies as well. All of that coming up. Stay tuned
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23:00 All right back with any market close right here on NDTV profit now something that we
23:06 promised that we will get you the voice from the auto space the
23:09 Leading newsmaker if you will on account of the buyback and multiple variations around that in terms of the amounts and acceptance. Mr
23:16 Sharma, Rakesh Sharma ED of Bajaj Auto joins us on the show. Mr. Sharma. Good having you. Thanks for taking the time out
23:22 And we'll talk about the business as well. But is great talking to you on NDTV profit
23:27 Is the size?
23:31 And the acceptance ratio something on which people would have asked you about that
23:36 Why is it that the size is X or whatever it is and acceptance ratio being what they are?
23:41 What is the rationale of coming with this size of a buyback at this pricing, sir?
23:46 Indeed that is the size is certainly one of the questions which has been asked to us
23:54 throughout the day and
23:59 The reason why it is at 4,000 crores is because
24:04 You know, the previous one was a two and a half thousand crores and we obviously
24:10 The board wanted to do
24:13 something beyond that
24:15 Secondly, it's been a good
24:18 year thus far for Bajaj Auto and the outlook is also very
24:23 Promising and this is despite us navigating a very difficult
24:29 Year in overseas markets, which is almost 40 to 50 percent of our top line
24:36 despite that
24:38 the domestic motorcycles business the three-wheeler business the emergence of the new businesses, which is
24:45 Chetak and Triumph
24:47 and the
24:50 Benign scenario on the
24:52 Cost front we're all sort of combining to give us a very good and optimistic outlook for the future
24:59 There has been sufficient cash generated. So the balance sheet is looking strong. So when we put all these things together we felt that
25:09 It is important to reward our shareholders in line with this kind of performance and outlook
25:19 Mr. Sharma, hi, this is Tamanna here. Really happy to be speaking to you on NDTV profit. Can you give us a sense of
25:27 Promoters participation in the buyback what happens to the promoter stake and what is the acceptance ratio that you expect?
25:35 So the obviously the tender offer is open to the promoters and they will be
25:43 Participating
25:46 Beyond this, you know, we will have to leave it to the promoters
25:50 It is not being specifically discussed at the board meeting. It is left to the
25:55 promoters volition as to how they want to deal with this and we have to
26:01 Look at it once the buyback is closed at this point of time, you know
26:07 It would just be no point speculating because there is no mandate. There is no sort of guidance
26:13 There is no guideline which was discussed in the board and it is a promoter matter. It is their individual
26:20 Preference and we'll see how that goes
26:23 Okay, and on the point of the acceptance ratio for retail investors in Bajaj Auto
26:30 Can you tell us what is the kind of acceptance ratio?
26:32 I mean, we're talking up to 10% is what's being talked about 6 to 10%
26:36 But what do you expect and what is the message through this buyback for your retail investors?
26:43 So for the small investors as per the SEBI guidelines, there is a reservation
26:48 as you know, and we will of course obviously be in line with that and
26:53 Again the
26:57 philosophy for us not now, but from let's say a couple of years ago
27:02 Was the recognition of the fact that there are different kinds of
27:06 Investors and shareholders over there. There is one set which is, you know, very very important
27:12 It is very very dividend oriented and Bajaj Auto for a long time
27:16 has been
27:19 Disbursing very healthy dividends and we were looking after that
27:22 Aspect there was a there is a very clear dividend policy
27:26 But a couple of years back it was felt that
27:30 There is another kind of investor who also looks forward to
27:34 Appreciation in share prices and the capital appreciation and therefore we need to give ourselves
27:42 multiple options with which to go back to our shareholders
27:46 That's why the buyback option was included as an option to
27:49 reward shareholders
27:51 A couple of years ago itself and we had the first buyback
27:55 last year and
27:58 this sort of
28:00 Gives us more flexibility. It gives us we feel
28:03 A better outreach to different kinds of investors who have different kind of kinds of expectations
28:11 Over there and this includes institutional and retail investors both
28:15 Okay, just one follow-up and of course you clarified quite specifically that promoters are open to participate
28:23 It's up to their volition, but just to follow up there. Mr. Sharma
28:27 Do you see any change in promoter holdings post the buyback or at the end of it? You expect it to be at the same level?
28:33 so
28:35 again, they will do what they have to do, but just on the basis of arithmetic and the
28:40 you know the relative sizes we don't expect
28:44 the promoter shareholding the needle to move
28:47 at all or maybe very very
28:50 Marginally, we don't expect much of a change there. All right. Let's talk about the outlook for the company and for the two-wheeler space
28:59 Mr. Sharma, I'm keen to know
29:01 you know your
29:03 thoughts on
29:04 EV push as far as Bajaj is concerned
29:07 It's the next big buzzword and what we can expect exciting in the pipeline for the year ahead
29:13 Yeah, so we are definitely
29:17 seeing EV as a very very
29:20 significant development
29:23 in the mobility space. It is beyond a buzzword for us and we have been putting in a
29:28 lot of effort and capability building in the early phases
29:34 both in R&D, manufacturing, supply chain and an exclusive
29:38 front-end network. These are very very EV specific
29:42 investments which have been made. Now,
29:46 whether it becomes, it remains at five percent of
29:50 two-wheelers or it becomes 30 percent and what duration this occurs or unfolds, it's
30:00 we cannot
30:01 sort of put a number on it, but we are very sure that this is going to happen. It opens up opportunities for us
30:08 in the scooter space. We are not in scooters and most of the EV transition is taking place first in scooters
30:15 It opens up international markets for us
30:18 subsequently and therefore when you put all this together, it's a very big opportunity for us. We were
30:26 I must confess maybe perhaps a bit slow on the supply chain side to get
30:31 you know, get sighting on the right
30:35 costs and availabilities, but once all that has fallen into place, you would have seen that there is a ramp up
30:42 We have increased our market share from four percent to 13 percent in the space of six months and we've got some very ambitious
30:51 targets
30:52 going forward
30:54 because right now, now we feel that the
30:57 preparation phase is sort of over. The emphasis, I mean you are always preparing, but the emphasis
31:04 shifts from preparation to scale up and that's what the phase we are in. So, you will see us trying to push the
31:11 boundaries further and further. As part of that,
31:15 we will add another premium variant to it
31:20 also, so there are two Chetaks in the market and very soon in a few months, you will see a third Chetak
31:26 coming into the market and there is a full program
31:30 which extends into the next three, four years. Some of it is blue sky thinking for which we have got international experts
31:37 working with us
31:39 who are going to
31:41 give directions to the new product program. So, you know, it is something which is
31:47 very, very seriously and curiously underway at Bajaj Auto. Fantastic. So, it's being described as Bajaj 3.0.
31:55 Mr. Sharma, you know, you've spoken about it in detail, but may I press you
31:58 for some kind of specifics. How many sort of EV products do you see as part of the portfolio?
32:07 You've talked about a 13 percent market share and an ambitious goal.
32:10 Can you put a number to that goal or give us a sense of, you know,
32:14 what the outlook really is to be a serious EV player
32:17 where perhaps
32:20 some peers have had a bit of a head start?
32:22 Yeah, so, you know, again,
32:27 it's a fair question. However, we do not work
32:33 in such a numeric manner in an emerging
32:38 sort of a business. Our key focus is that, you know,
32:43 we should be in the podium finish. We should not have a very adverse competitive ratio.
32:49 This is a marathon. We are not saying that we have to burn up equity and burn up cash and be just number one.
32:57 But we certainly don't want to be number three, number four.
33:00 We want to be in the top three so that, you know, at the right time,
33:04 as the market unfolds, there are also a lot of ambiguities in the environment.
33:09 But as the market unfolds, we raise to that. So it's not as if we have decided
33:14 that, you know, this is the kind of position which we want to do. Having said that, obviously, we are building capacity. Today we have now
33:22 revved up our capacity from 5,000 units to
33:26 15,000 units that's been taken up to 30,000 units and it will be further
33:31 taken up in due course. And we will see how
33:35 the sales expands
33:38 given this supply chain capability. And then we will see how it stacks up
33:42 competitively, whether this lands up with us in number one, number two or number three position.
33:47 But podium finish, that means at least in the top three. Thank you so much, Mr. Rakesh Sharma.
33:53 Great to speak to you. The buyback has been well received so far, at least,
33:58 you know, Bajaj Auto stock has, I think, seen its longest winning streak
34:04 in the last couple of years and continues to be sort of well received through the day, off the day's highs,
34:10 but definitely not doing badly at all.
34:12 Look at it in the last 12 months, nearly 96% up. Let me quickly go across
34:18 to our guests who are on the show with us today, taking us through towards market close. Few minutes off,
34:24 but just a quick word first from you, Pankaj on Bajaj Auto and the buyback.
34:30 So I think this buyback of 4000 crores is a sort of a more of a tax efficient mode of
34:36 giving back to shareholders.
34:39 Materially, I mean, we don't see that stock prices should head towards 10,000 kind of a level,
34:47 because the buyback has been announced at those levels.
34:50 Because I think our sense is when you look at numbers, YTD, Bajaj Auto is still sort of
34:55 doing about 3-4% kind of a volume growth.
34:59 The export leg is still sort of yet to sort of witness a meaningful recovery and TVS is already sort of doing well
35:06 into wheeler space.
35:08 And they have been sort of doing well for quite some time.
35:11 So while Bajaj Auto no doubt is quite capital efficient, has got one of the best margins, highest return ratios,
35:18 but our sense is that beyond
35:21 this
35:22 buyback, we don't see that
35:24 things are really sort of improving materially for Bajaj Auto, unless
35:28 the export leg of the segment sort of keeps picking up. Because I think on the domestic side,
35:33 the rural segment has started to sort of look up. So that is good.
35:37 But I think the export segment is still sort of missing at least for the last
35:42 December number should we go by.
35:46 So from that perspective,
35:48 we're not excited so much that it'll go back to or the prices are headed towards 10,000 levels anytime soon.
35:56 All right, unless you're participating in the buyback.
35:58 Then you have that mark for you. Amar, views on Bajaj Auto and the AutoPAC, anything that you like at current levels?
36:06 Yeah, I would say Bajaj Auto
36:10 definitely is very strong on the charts, but at the current levels, some of the indicators are in overheated territory. So rather
36:17 one should wait it out and should see how the markets
36:20 fade over the next couple of days because
36:24 the volumes have been extremely high over the last few trading sessions. So that also
36:27 implies that there would be a lot of
36:30 selling also that's happening at the same time. But overall, the trend remains very strong for Bajaj Auto. Among the other
36:38 auto stocks, I would say
36:41 Tata Motors is one stock which continues to be very strong technically. On the charts,
36:47 it's currently around 800 odd levels. So any pullback in the stock towards
36:51 750 odd can be used as a buying opportunity
36:54 because the uptrend on the intermediate
36:58 intermediate term charts or the long term charts
37:00 that continues to be very strong as well.
37:03 Absolutely.
37:05 So it's not just auto though, which is buzzing. I want to talk a bit about the consumption space as well. FMCG has been having a
37:12 slew of
37:15 weakness in the last few sessions and that continues to play out today.
37:18 Let's just look at what's happening to those key stocks, ITC, Nestle,
37:22 HUL, Britannia. All have seen these concerns coming through their business updates over
37:29 the kind of rural recovery that we're seeing and you're seeing that persist today as well.
37:34 Let me come to you, Pankaj, first on this point.
37:36 Whether you can spot outliers in that pack
37:41 because the broad theme is that you are going to be seeing a rural recovery. The question is when?
37:48 So I think for FMCG companies, our sense is that if you look at their margins are already at lifetime high for most of the years,
37:56 which implies that largely companies are still not willing to cut prices to trigger a revival in the rural demand.
38:05 I think even from the business update perspective, most of the companies will deliver mid single digit kind of growth with margins largely remaining and quite decent.
38:16 Our sense is that this space is not really going to outperform the markets. What we would structurally like is more of
38:23 food as a category because that is one space
38:25 where
38:27 probably you will see a lot more opportunity or
38:30 room for growth,
38:32 the likes of Tata Consumer. So we are very selective in FMCG's entire pack and we really do not think that
38:41 even if the rural recovery were to happen, given the fact that valuations are already rich,
38:46 the growth rates are not really inch up or we do not expect growth rates to sort of inch up from single digit to double digits.
38:54 So from that perspective,
38:56 FMCG might do well in times of volatility, but
38:59 we do not see them outperforming Nifty,
39:04 I mean in the medium term or even for a longer term.
39:08 Amar, anything that would be on your radar on FMCG or is it something that you are avoiding overall,
39:15 all the way today?
39:18 As far as FMCG is concerned, Britannia, you are a top loser on the Nifty in fact today, down about a percent,
39:23 not too much, but Britannia, Nestle leading that pack, Asian pains to some extent, possibly more of a crude play
39:28 rather than anything else,
39:31 although could be a reflection of the consumption story as well.
39:34 Amar?
39:36 Yeah, I would say amongst the FMCG Tata consumer products,
39:40 that still is, I would say if I compare with other FMCG stocks, this is in all a different
39:45 trajectory altogether in spite of the sharp rally that we witnessed when it
39:50 broke out of the 850-900 zone, currently it's around 1100 odd levels, but
39:56 technically and looking at the charts, the momentum is very strong on the long term, intermediate term trend,
40:02 the short term trend, so any pullback in this stock should be a buying opportunity.
40:06 Ideally, the levels to look out for from where the stock is likely to bounce back is
40:10 1070-1080 in the short term where we could witness the stock
40:14 correcting and then a pullback towards the 1180-1200 levels.
40:18 So this is one stock one can look at from a short term trading perspective.
40:22 All right, a quick look at the healthcare space as well, a lot of buzz on
40:26 Metropolis with their business updates coming in, that's one counter to watch out for.
40:32 Narayana,
40:34 of their highs, Narayana and Hridhalaya is also another one. We had an interesting conversation today,
40:38 that stock is about one and a half percent up. They're making a foray into
40:42 health insurance and I had an opportunity to speak with the management today. Profit is the last thing on our mind,
40:49 says Viren Shetty of Narayana Health. Why does he say this as someone who runs a listed company?
40:55 Take a look at a slice of that conversation.
40:59 At this point, profit is almost the last thing on our mind.
41:02 The most important thing for us is to prove to ourselves that this is something we can do.
41:06 More health, less insurance. If you run it as an insurance company,
41:10 obviously you're going to do things like deny people with pre-existing conditions, find any reason to
41:15 deny a claim. But we are in the healthcare business and we want to offer healthcare to all our customers.
41:20 And we have a belief that even with someone who has a surgery, who has diabetes, who has a chronic condition,
41:27 that condition can be managed. Now, it may be more expensive, it may require a lot more work,
41:31 but that's what we as a hospital organization know how to do.
41:34 And so if we're able to price it appropriately, we believe that even people with pre-existing conditions can be insured and taken care
41:41 over long periods of time.
41:43 And another interesting conversation we had today was with Ease My Trip. They have cancelled
41:48 all its packages to Maldives.
41:52 Following comments made by Maldives Minister regarding Prime Minister Modi's visit to Lakshadweep,
41:57 we spoke today to Prashant Pitti, co-founder of Ease My Trip,
42:01 on this and he says that Indian islands deserve to be one of the top tourist destinations.
42:06 Lakshadweep deserves to be known as a travel destination.
42:12 It's just that the infrastructure right now might not be at the same level where we want it to be.
42:18 But given the way this government functions and how quickly we were able to make Ayodhya as an international airport in only 20 months time,
42:26 I wouldn't be surprised five years from now if Lakshadweep becomes one of the hot tourist destinations, not just for India,
42:33 but for the rest of the world too.
42:35 The problem with Lakshadweep right now is that there aren't that many direct flights connecting to the Agati airport.
42:41 We are in touch with various airlines and requesting them to create, to
42:46 basically create segments which are directly connecting
42:49 Lakshadweep to mainland India, Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai and other places.
42:55 So, you know, like we've been speaking the tourism stocks are completely sizzling in today's trade and in the last few days as well.
43:04 But I want to talk about, you know, the flashes that you've probably been seeing on your screen,
43:09 business updates for Q3 coming in from Prestige Estates, where sales are up
43:14 111% year on year and collections are up 36% year on year. We'll wait for more details from Prestige,
43:21 but look at that last minute spike coming in on the back of those business updates.
43:26 It was in fact one of the lagars today, though the overall real estate pack has been doing well.
43:31 Brigade was leading the charge, no pun intended, but had come off its days highs.
43:38 It's doing okay now, about a percent up. Ghodri's properties is the big winner of the day though.
43:43 But Prestige is seeing a nice spike up on those numbers of Q3 business updates coming in.
43:52 Let me go across to Pankaj and Amar on their take on the real estate play.
43:55 And we ask this every few days, Amar, because the real estate sector keeps coming back with new highs.
44:02 The index keeps coming back with new highs and new surprises.
44:05 But if you had to
44:08 pick two or three top players, listed players right now, where you still see
44:12 enough evaluations and enough of potential on the charts, which one would it be, Amar?
44:17 I would say one definitely would be DLF.
44:21 Because DLF, what we are seeing is that the stock
44:25 has really
44:28 is trading very firm on the charts, be it the medium term, long term charts as well as the short term charts.
44:33 And also what we've been witnessing over the last,
44:36 I would say, a few months is that there has been significant
44:38 increase in both on the volume and the delivery quantity, and that also at higher levels.
44:44 So we go back in time. So on 30th of November, it had witnessed significant
44:48 volumes at around 630, 640 levels. And as recent as 4th of January,
44:55 there was again significant volumes at high levels. So clearly tells me that
44:58 there is more upside to the stock. And if we go and look back at the stock, the stock is still a far cry from its
45:04 highs, which it had made earlier.
45:07 So in
45:09 2008, when it used to trade around 12, 25 levels, so it's roughly around 70.
45:14 So there's a long way for the stock to go and the stock is very strong on the charts and
45:19 this is one stock one can definitely
45:21 look at. And I would say the other stock to look at is Godrej Properties.
45:26 This is again one stock very strong on the charts. It did
45:31 trade as high as 2500 levels and corrected all the way to
45:33 1000 levels and then
45:36 the stock is around 1200. So this is one stock again one can look at from a trading perspective.
45:42 Okay, so Godrej Properties and DLF. We had a conversation in fact yesterday with the DLF management and their new Gurgaon project was
45:51 sold out
45:53 fairly quickly. But the important takeaway, the average booking size, which is on an average about 10 lakhs for an apartment of
46:00 that size and ticket size was 50 lakhs over here and they had a lot of interest from NRIs as well. DLF counter also doing
46:07 decently in trade today. Pankaj, your take on the real estate pack?
46:12 So real estate has been the top performing sector last calendar year.
46:19 I think the index is up about 80 odd percent last year. With this kind of a price performance,
46:25 I would not expect this sector to keep doing well from a price performance perspective.
46:30 But
46:32 when you look at sales data, it's quite robust. Also, this sector should benefit from the perspective that
46:39 I have the interest it's a decline in the second half of this year.
46:42 As of now, the premium segment is doing well. Probably the mid segment will also start doing well.
46:47 Our topic has been a brigade.
46:52 All our target prices have been reached. So we would not really chase at this level.
46:56 Probably we would expect some part of a correction to pan out and then we would like.
47:00 Besides that, I think Mahindra Life is another stock which we like. Where the management commentary is good.
47:06 I think the only part I'm missing is that the exhibition, like what we are looking at, especially for the Thane property.
47:12 So I think
47:14 these are the two topics.
47:16 Mahindra Life at current weather and I think a brigade post some correction.
47:21 We've had interesting conversations both with Irfan Razak and Akash Jori of DLF and I will
47:26 play that out for you in a second.
47:27 But before I do that, I want to come to Amar on your BTSD ideas as we wind down to close.
47:32 Yeah, the one stock to look at is
47:37 NBCC.
47:39 So this is one stock one can definitely
47:41 look at because
47:44 it continues to be very strong and what we saw the last
47:48 three trading sessions was that there was some minor correction. Again, there has been a pullback today and the stock has breached its
47:53 earlier resistance which was around 88-90 levels and trading firm. So this is one stock one can
47:59 definitely look at the current levels with a target of 104 and a stop loss of 83.
48:05 Okay, and anything on the sell side or just NBCC would be your single BTSD call?
48:11 Yeah, I would say that it would be NBCC.
48:15 Okay, NBCC is the call for the day. Stock already run up about 7%. But we were talking about the real estate sector
48:21 which is definitely boosting Nifty gains today and we had an
48:25 opportunity to speak with both DLF and Prestige, listening to bits of those conversations.
48:30 I think what has happened right now is what I'm seeing over the last year or two
48:36 is that the residential real estate has become a priority.
48:42 And what people are doing today are moving on to better and bigger homes. They are looking at better developers. They are looking at
48:50 secure investments. But most importantly, I think the trend is changing towards
48:56 you live once, let's kind of live it king size.
48:59 And therefore, whichever category you may be in, you are looking at bigger and better homes.
49:06 That being said, the other thing is that real estate
49:11 is in the DNA of every Indian. I have maintained that for a long time now.
49:14 You really can't take it out. I mean, the money was taken into other asset classes, but I think with the regulations and
49:22 the business that is now being kind of
49:25 in a certain way regulated with all norms, the confidence of the NRIs and confidence of other businesses,
49:33 investors is now back.
49:38 I always believe that
49:40 there is the
49:43 sweet spot is always in the mid-income housing and that will keep growing
49:47 while the premium and luxury also has caught up well.
49:52 And I don't see any letting up and I believe the demand will be quite sustained.
49:57 And any new product in a good location from a good builder will always have a demand.
50:04 All right. So that was the word on real estate, but let's bring our attention to broader markets, which is
50:09 looking like, you know, they're giving up the gains of the day. The Bank Nifty down nearly half a percent now
50:17 as we move into closing.
50:20 The Nifty IT is still holding up to some extent, but
50:23 even the Nifty and Sensex close to their day's lows at this point. Just
50:29 let's see if they manage to keep their nose
50:32 above the water. 21,500 was
50:35 the point at which the Nifty held on yesterday in trade.
50:40 Not too close to that today, but that pressure definitely coming in in the last bits of trade. So what is
50:47 really dragging down the markets today? The Nifty media
50:51 with the biggest hit, but yes, it's the BFSI space, which is seeing the most pain, whether it's Nifty Finance or the Bank Nifty
51:00 as well. Some pops of positivity there coming in because of the insurance companies, which have had
51:07 good numbers. But if I look at it overall, your PFC, REC, Sriram Finance, Bajaj Pinsar, all of them seeing
51:17 pain right now while going into close. But let's look at the top Nifty contributors,
51:24 the top Bank Nifty contributors to the fall today and AU Small Finance Bank leads that list. IDFC first.
51:31 HDFC Bank has been having a couple of bad sessions. Bandhan Do,
51:36 seeing some kind of a pullback after yesterday because of a clarification they put out
51:42 about regulatory investigations
51:44 into some of those loans that they gave during COVID-19. They were specialized
51:51 loans given out by the government to MSMEs, etc.
51:54 There were queries about that, but Bandhan Bank has clarified that there's no specific query
51:59 targeting them per se. So that's seen a bit of a rebound, but not really much to write home about. The weakness
52:07 definitely coming in from here. I just want to look at top Nifty contributors as we go into
52:11 the last odd minute of trade and take a look at what is causing pain over there.
52:18 Look at that. HDFC Bank weighing heavy on the Nifty today. L&T,
52:23 some spark and some saving grace
52:26 within the Nifty. We'll pull up that heat map also in a bit to tell you how we're going. The broader indices also look like they're going to be
52:33 holding on steady relatively, but giving up some of those gains. FMCG are the big losers of the day. Britannia, Nestle,
52:42 all of them there. Even HDFC Life
52:44 coming off its highs. Adani doing okay. SBI Life is the one with the good numbers
52:49 over there. And the insurance figures which have come out, the
52:53 annual life insurance figures have come out. Some defensive placing there in Cipla. Auto is doing fine today. Hero and
53:01 Bajaj perhaps leading that story. The TVS has come off its highs, but Auto is doing okay
53:08 in today's trade. Let's take a quick last word from
53:13 Amar before we wrap up our session for the day.
53:17 Amar, looking at the close today, and we've managed to keep our head above the water if I look at
53:22 21,500. Where do you see the support coming in at this point?
53:28 I would say that technically if you look at the charts on the daily
53:33 trend,
53:36 it clearly was displaying that there is some sort of consolidation
53:40 which is happening and higher levels is likely to be sold into and that's what we are witnessing not only in the
53:45 benchmark indices, but also in the major heavyweights. So looking at Nifty, I would say
53:50 major support zone for Nifty is around the
53:54 21,350-21,400 level. That's a very crucial and important zone of support for Nifty.
54:00 However, again on the upside, I would say somewhere around 21,750-21,800, that's going to be a zone of resistance.
54:06 So what's likely to happen is that we would witness consolidation. If there is a pullback to those higher levels,
54:11 we'll witness selling pressure. If Nifty corrects to
54:15 21,400 levels, we'll see some buying interest coming in
54:19 because the intermediate term trend continues to remain extremely strong and positive.
54:24 So that would not let Nifty correct significantly. Even if there is a correction, we'll see a pullback. That's likely
54:30 what we are to witness in the coming days.
54:33 Okay, last thoughts, Pankaj, before we wrap on the markets today on India market close.
54:38 Decent close all withstanding. Yes, there was some selling pressure, but you're seeing support on dips, isn't it?
54:47 Absolutely. So our sense is that market ideally should head towards 22,300 kind of levels. Obviously,
54:55 this will happen only after 21,800 levels are taken off.
55:00 And this week our sense is that it is going to consolidate in this range of 300 to 400 points.
55:05 So we don't really see major reason for worry. I think till last week, 88% of the
55:11 stocks were trading above 50-day exponential moving average. So market width was also quite good.
55:16 All right, thank you so much, Amar and Pankaj for staying with us through the afternoon trade.
55:24 We've seen markets close and giving up its gains, but still in positive territory.
55:29 Banks and financials weighed heavy on the nifty led by
55:34 counters like AU Small Finance Bank, of course, HDFC also seeing some pain.
55:39 That's it from me, Neeraj and the entire team which puts together India market close.
55:44 Thank you for joining us, but stay tuned a lot more coming up on the other side on NDTV Profit.
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