The F&O Show | Realty Rally | NDTV Profit
- Realty rally
- #Sensex, #Nifty gain in trade
Take stock of the derivates market with Agami Vakil on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #Sensex, #Nifty gain in trade
Take stock of the derivates market with Agami Vakil on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00 Markets extend gains in Friday's opening deals. Looking past weakness in global markets, Sensex
00:09 jumps over 200 points, Nifty about 21,700. Broader markets in tandem with the benchmarks,
00:17 mid-cap and small-caps open at a record high, jump over 1% each. Meanwhile, roaring rarely
00:23 for Realty continues, Phoenix Mills, Indiabulls lead gains. The private sector lender HDFC
00:32 sees slow growth in its Q3 deposits. The bank adds over 41,000 worth deposits in December
00:40 quarter. Gautam Adani reclaims India's richest title from Mukesh Ambani. The group's stocks
00:48 added over 12,000 crores in market cap trade today.
00:55 India is on its way to become a developed economy, is the word coming in from Aditya
01:00 Birla Group's Kumar Mangalam Birla. Hello and welcome. This is Agam Bakhil. You're
01:25 watching the F&O Show, a show in which we take you through all that is happening in
01:28 the futures and options space in Indian equity markets. For now, taking a look at the markets,
01:33 we are looking at a quiet day of trade. The Nifty is marginally in the green right now,
01:41 hover higher by around 0.4%. The Bank Nifty on the other hand is trending largely flattish
01:46 with a gain of less than 0.1%. As far as your broader markets are concerned, we don't have
01:53 too much to speak for. We do have some amount of movement there as well. The mid-cap index
01:58 of course is advancing by around 0.6% and we do have a lot of traction with respect
02:03 to the mid-cap index as well. But before that, let's also quickly look at the constituents
02:07 of the benchmark, perhaps the Nifty in this case and see where there is a pull and where
02:13 there is a push. So if you look at how things are panning out when it comes to names like
02:19 Infosys, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, a whole host of these companies are actually
02:24 in fact doing well and we continue to keep an eye on that one. Of course, let's not forget
02:30 that something like an HDFC Bank on the other hand is weighing down on the index. We also
02:34 have ITC, Sun Pharma and Britannia also under a tad bit of pressure. So on the whole, it's
02:40 a fairly evenly poised market at the moment and we'll continue to keep an eye on that
02:46 one. Very quickly, take a look at your broader market
02:48 movers and that's where you're seeing a little more traction. So you do have NHPC, right
02:53 at the top of the list, which is advancing by around 4.1%. This is of course a clear
02:57 beneficiary of the new CERC tariffs and of course the changes that have come through
03:04 in terms of hydropower. Motherson Sumi Wiring is the other one which is in fact starting
03:08 to see an up move now, up around 4%. Apollo Tyres is the other one that's also up and
03:14 about that's advancing by around 3.3% as well. As we speak and of course on the losing
03:20 end, we have some weakness in Bandhan Bank down around 3.3% and Max Healthcare is down
03:27 around 2.4%. So on the whole, we're looking at a fairly mixed market, but more gainers
03:33 than losers. To very quickly address what's happening in the futures and options space
03:37 as well, let's pull up the Nifty Snapshot and take a look at what's really happening
03:41 there. And of course, while the benchmarks remain
03:45 quiet, we are looking at a good 2.5% increase in open interest as far as the Nifty is concerned.
03:50 Besides that, and of course, this is largely towards longs because do remember that while
03:55 we did see a bout of covering of positions yesterday, today is a day where we are seeing
04:00 a little bit more increase in open interest towards longs. To talk about the Bank Nifty
04:06 as well and that is where we are continuing to see an increase in OI. Remember yesterday
04:11 was a day where we in fact did see a lot of longs building up, even as the index moved
04:16 higher by around 1% and we saw a significant increase in OI yesterday. Today, while the
04:22 index remains quiet, we are seeing more traction as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned as well.
04:28 Coming down to the futures, pardon me, the options space and that's where we are keeping
04:33 an eye on a 500 point or range when it comes to open interest distribution that is accentuated
04:41 by the 22,000 strike call, which has maximum open interest and on the lower end it is a
04:48 21,500 put, which also has max OI and that's roughly a 500 point range within which you
04:55 can expect the Nifty to trade within. We don't have too much traction in today's day of trade
05:00 when it comes to the Nifty 50, of course, in terms of its options because we are a bit
05:05 away from its expiration that will come on this Thursday. But once again, we'll continue
05:11 to keep an eye on some of these aspects as we move into trade today. On that note, I'm
05:16 going to get in our experts for today. But before that, let's address what's happening
05:22 with HDFC. Now, we do have the monthly updates for HDFC and from my understanding, if we
05:30 could pull up some of those factors and data points as far as HDFC is concerned, you can
05:35 get a better idea of what's really happening there with respect to the quarterly updates.
05:40 Well, so you do have gross advances, which have moved up 5% sequentially and deposits
05:46 on the other hand have moved up around 2% sequentially. So, these are the two big numbers
05:52 that we have from HDFC and besides that, we do want to talk about the corporate book,
05:59 also the kind of growth that we have seen with respect to your different markets across.
06:06 To discuss that, we have Rahul Malani, he's the banking analyst at ShareCount who's
06:09 joining us, ShareCount by PNB Paribas, pardon me, who's joining us on the show right now.
06:14 Rahul, good morning and thanks so much for joining in. Let me start by asking you about
06:18 the deposit numbers. We are seeing a sequential growth of around 2%. Is this a concern according
06:25 to you? How are you reading into this? Good morning. So, overall deposit growth has
06:32 been weak, which has been led by the retail deposits. They have increased by around 530
06:39 billion versus our expectation of 800 billion per quarter. Therefore, overall deposit growth
06:46 is lower. Additionally, if you look at the wholesale deposits front, they have also declined.
06:51 However, reduction in the high cost wholesale deposit would additionally support names in
06:56 this quarter. So, it's a mixed set of numbers. Right. And what do you make of, well, besides
07:04 deposits, what do you make of the other numbers in general in terms of gross advances?
07:09 So, overall loan growth? Yes. Overall loan growth has been strong, which
07:15 has been supported by the commercial and rural banking loans and retail loans. In line with
07:22 the guidance which they have given. Okay. I do want your comments on the corporate
07:27 book as well. Is that on its growth path? What are you making of that?
07:32 See, basically, we were seeing that if you look at the industry growth, industry growth,
07:39 overall system growth has been sluggish in the corporate loans. It has been going at
07:43 8 to 9%. So, versus HDFC going in line with the system growth. So, if you look at the
07:49 sequential growth, this quarter they have given around 2% sequential growth. So, basically,
07:53 it is in line with the industry growth. Okay. And finally, Rahul, your view on HDFC
07:58 Bank, your ratings and your overall target? We continue to maintain a positive stance
08:05 on HDFC Bank with a 12-month strike by target of around 1900. We believe that overall in
08:12 calendar year 2024, we should see in the overall banking sector seeing some reduction of pressure
08:20 on the overall ROI. But for us, HDFC Bank would be one of the banks in the largest private
08:27 bank space where we should see improvement in the ROI which should help in re-rating
08:32 the valuation multiples. Because investment thesis and fundamentals are holding up well.
08:39 Okay. We leave it at that, Rahul. Thank you so much for joining us and taking us through
08:42 your views on HDFC Bank. Continue to keep an eye on that counter, an all-important one
08:48 of course when it comes to the financial space. But from there on, we get in our experts,
08:53 our F&O experts for today. And we have Aushwok Krishnan, Senior Research Analyst for Technicals
08:58 and Derivatives at Angel One as well as Aditya Arora, Multi-Asset Research Analyst at Adlytic.
09:03 Gentlemen, good morning and thank you so much for joining in. Aushwok, I start with you,
09:07 how are you on the Nifty? How are you trading in this one? Are you expecting about a consolidation
09:13 or do you in fact expect this to trend? Very good morning, everyone. Well, as you
09:18 have said, our market has seen a very buoyant move because even in the recent period, we
09:24 have seen a deep correction from the zone of 21,800 towards the zone of 21,500. But
09:30 again, decoupling with the global peers because if we will be talking about the last session's
09:35 development, then we have totally decoupled with the global peers and from the lower end
09:41 21,500, we have seen a strong buying traction. And as of now, again, the market is nearing
09:47 the resistance zone of 21,750 to 21,800. So now is the time where one should maintain
09:54 a caution sign because here onwards, one can expect some kind of again profit booking in
09:59 the market because 21,750 is the zone where it has consolidated the most, approximately
10:05 three days on a consecutive basis. So this is a very cautious zone where one should not
10:11 be very much aggressive in the market. But overall, sentiments remain buoyant, bullish,
10:17 because overall, if we will be looking at the broader space, broader market, then many
10:21 of the counters are looking very promising. There are thematical movers which are performing
10:26 and driving the market on the higher end. But to highlight, Bank Nifty has started gaining
10:32 traction from yesterday's session. So that is a very positive development for our market
10:38 that from here onwards, it might lead our market on the higher front. So on Nifty specifically,
10:44 21,800 is the zone, which is a very strong resistance. Once we breach that zone, then
10:50 again we can see a very strong traction in Nifty. Whereas for Bank Nifty, 48,500 is the
10:57 zone which is likely to seen as the immediate resistance. Once we see a decisive breakthrough
11:02 among these indices above the mentioned resistance zone, then from there onwards, we can see
11:08 a very strong upside movement in our market. Right. Let's get in Aditya into the conversation
11:14 as well. Aditya, your view on the benchmarks at the moment. Very good morning, everyone.
11:21 Just like the way how you're sporting a very calm and dashing look, I expect markets to
11:26 be little calm at these levels, consolidate within one standard deviation up and down.
11:32 So I think if we maintain an intraday view, then I think profit booking is visible and
11:39 it could further happen to lower levels. So I think intraday view is little bearish. But
11:45 if we maintain a one to two week view, then I think market should consolidate with upside
11:52 bias. So until and unless we don't reach 21,500, one must maintain one to two weeks of bullish
12:00 bias. And on Bank Nifty, one must maintain bullish bias until we don't reach 47,500.
12:08 So that's the view for intraday and one to two weeks.
12:10 Right. Thank you for the compliment, Aditya. But let me address what's happening in the
12:16 real estate sector as well, because that's where we are seeing the most amount of an
12:19 up move there. I want to very quickly take that up with our experts at the moment. And
12:25 even though it has given up from days highs, it has seen a tremendous last 12 months. Aditya,
12:33 is anything that stands out for you either on the index itself or stocks that belong
12:38 to this sector? Anything that could potentially still have an up move at the moment?
12:44 I think the index is pretty much overextended and right now it's trading at in overbought
12:50 territories and most of the stocks are pretty overstretched and have moved up in a parabolic
12:56 trend. So I think at these levels, there isn't much to gain and there could be more to lose.
13:03 But at this point in time, the risk reward is not favorable for the index and components
13:07 as well. All right. Well, we'll slip in a quick break,
13:11 but don't go anywhere. On the other hand, we talk about stocks and a lot more. Stay
13:15 tuned in.
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16:31 - Welcome back to the FNO Show.
16:33 We've seen the market take a direction downwards
16:37 and this is a quick one.
16:38 Of course, we're still marginally in the red,
16:41 both for, at least for the bank Nifty,
16:44 we are marginally in the red,
16:45 and the Nifty has now come off
16:47 and it's currently trading below the mark of 21,700.
16:50 Continue to keep an eye on this one
16:52 because there has been that sharp weakness
16:55 which has come through.
16:56 Let's take a look at all the big gainers
16:58 in open interest at the moment
17:00 and take a, to see where,
17:02 and what is actually trending in fact.
17:05 So, we do have something like Kotak Mandir Bank,
17:09 L&T Finance, along with Shree Cement,
17:11 which are all shorts.
17:13 Do remember that Nestle has gone X split today,
17:15 which is why you're seeing that significant change.
17:18 But besides that, we keep an eye
17:20 on Oracle Financial Services,
17:22 which is of course seeing longs.
17:24 Let's flip it over and take a look at all those stocks
17:27 which is seeing an unwinding
17:29 and longs unwinding largely.
17:30 GNFC, Chambal Fertilizers, Gujarat Gas, IndusInd Bank,
17:34 only about a short covering for AB Capital.
17:36 On that note, let's take in our experts' views
17:40 and ideas that they do suggest.
17:42 Osho, I'll come to you on this one.
17:44 What are the stock ideas
17:45 that you're recommending to us this morning?
17:48 - Firstly, the first counter which is in my radar
17:51 is Tata Communication.
17:53 If you will be seeing the formation,
17:55 technical formation of Tata Communication,
17:57 it has consolidated.
17:58 Today, it has witnessed a very strong buying
18:00 in the initial hours.
18:02 Currently, it is facing some kind of profit booking,
18:05 but overall momentum or overall structure remains buoyant.
18:09 So, one should definitely try to buy this counter
18:11 above the zone of 1775.
18:14 Once it breaches the 1775 levels,
18:17 then from there onwards,
18:18 it has the potential to touch 1800 on immediate basis
18:21 and 1830 on positional basis.
18:24 So, one should definitely try to accumulate it
18:26 on higher levels.
18:27 1775 is the zone and on the downside,
18:30 1748 should be kept as the stop loss.
18:34 The second counter is from the aviation space.
18:37 If you will be seeing the technical chart of Indigo,
18:40 then Indigo has seen a very strong closer
18:42 in yesterday's session
18:44 and it is approximately hovering above the same
18:47 throughout the day.
18:48 So, at current levels also,
18:50 one can accumulate Indigo for a higher target
18:53 of nearly 3080
18:55 and keeping a strict stop loss of 2950
18:58 for short-term traders.
18:59 - Okay, and Aditya, how about you?
19:01 What are you trading today?
19:02 - So, we are trading Tata Group stocks today
19:06 and both the stocks belong to the Tata Group.
19:09 The first one would be Tata Steel.
19:11 We have seen good correction in steel counters,
19:14 metal counters,
19:16 and at these levels, they are consolidating
19:18 and the trend is pretty much neutral
19:20 and there's scope for good upside from here.
19:23 So, we'll sell put option, 135 put option in Tata Steel,
19:27 which is currently trading at 3.80 to 3.95.
19:32 The stop loss for the same would be 7.5
19:34 and target would be zero.
19:37 So, bias over here is bullish, neutral to bullish.
19:39 And the second stock is TCS,
19:41 where we can sell 3600 put option,
19:46 which is currently trading at 40 rupees.
19:49 75 should be the stop loss
19:52 and zero would be the target.
19:54 Again, we maintain bullish bias in this counter.
19:56 I think the trend could be neutral to bullish over here.
20:00 - Okay, so those are views from two companies
20:03 from the Tata Group.
20:05 Let's pull up the Bank Nifty at the moment
20:07 and see the intraday chart in that case.
20:10 We're looking at a very, very small pullback
20:14 from the sharp cut that we've seen
20:16 over the last 15 odd minutes.
20:18 The question is that,
20:20 have things changed substantially above a Bank Nifty?
20:22 Prima facie, you may say that it's down just about 0.1,
20:26 0.1, 0.2%.
20:30 We are not looking at substantial losses there.
20:32 But we must also remember that,
20:35 even when we do see small changes,
20:38 the fact that option premiums at the moment are so confined,
20:43 well, it could mean, even a small move
20:45 could mean a largish move on the option premiums.
20:49 Osho, how are you looking at the Bank Nifty
20:53 on an intraday basis?
20:55 Have things changed?
20:57 And if you were to play this on an intraday basis,
21:01 what would you look at?
21:01 What factors would you look at?
21:03 - See, basically for Nifty and Bank Nifty,
21:05 I am having a very bullish intent.
21:07 And I was expecting that there can be
21:09 some kind of profit booking,
21:11 which will be attracting more buyers.
21:13 So for Bank Nifty, 48,000 on the spot is the first zone
21:17 where one can expect a decent consolidation
21:20 for the time being.
21:21 So the zone should be 47,900 to 48,000 level,
21:25 where one should try to accumulate Bank Nifty
21:27 or buy Bank Nifty futures on the spot zone.
21:31 And on the higher end,
21:32 one can definitely expect 48,400
21:35 to be acting as the resistance.
21:37 So 47,900 to 48 is the buying zone,
21:41 keeping a strict stop loss of 47,700.
21:43 Overall, the trend remains bullish,
21:47 but one should definitely try to look for some correction
21:50 and they could proceed with the buying approach.
21:53 - Okay, gentlemen, we leave it that.
21:56 Thank you both for joining us
21:57 and taking us through your views on the markets.
21:59 And of course, giving us a handful of trading ideas.
22:03 And from there on, we move on to Jyothi CNC Automation's IPO
22:06 which is set to open on January 9.
22:08 We spoke to the management on the company's IPO plans.
22:12 Here is a slide of that conversation, listening.
22:16 - I'd like to tell you about this prospect of the IPO.
22:19 Out of this 1,000 crores,
22:22 we are going to be largely around 475 crores
22:25 we are going to pay to our debt.
22:27 And close to 300 crores, we are going to,
22:31 360 crores we are going to utilize
22:33 for the next two years
22:34 long-term working capital requirement.
22:37 And the rest we are keeping in terms of a GCF like that.
22:42 And basically to looking for the further opportunity
22:45 on EMS business, so keeping a result to that.
22:48 - Give me a sense of the operations, Mr. Jadeja.
22:53 I was going through your RHP,
22:55 you spoke about the fact that
22:56 the profitability record is not much.
22:58 In FY23, you were profitable.
23:01 In the first half, you were profitable by 3.35 crores.
23:05 And the reason for that being
23:07 is some of the material subsidiaries were loss-making,
23:10 especially your overseas subsidiaries.
23:12 So give me a sense of your operations
23:15 and which are the subsidies which are loss-making
23:17 and how do you plan to turn them around?
23:20 - So basically in, let's say 2021,
23:25 was completely this COVID year
23:29 that losses has been incurred.
23:31 And particularly, this subsidiary companies
23:34 are mainly working on aerospace area.
23:38 And you know that very well that in COVID time,
23:41 the aerospace industries was had badly hit over there.
23:45 But over a period now, after that,
23:47 we have a robust comeback over there in Europe also.
23:50 And we have close to, let's say,
23:52 1,900 crores of a worth of orders are with us today.
23:56 And from that, it goes on and mainly on aerospace
23:59 and defense area to be there.
24:01 These orders we have received last year
24:04 and our manufacturing cycle is, let's say,
24:07 very long manufacturing cycle
24:08 into that large machines and all.
24:10 So we have seen some development happen in FY23,
24:15 but we'll see the better results are in FY24.
24:18 - Is there a cyclicality to your revenues and profitability?
24:25 Because while you did a 15 crore profits for FY23,
24:29 the first half, the profits were 3.35 crores.
24:32 So my question was that, you know,
24:35 despite the fact that EBITDA margins are higher
24:38 in the first half compared to last financial year,
24:42 are you, is there a cyclicality or order booking sequence
24:47 which is leading to, you know, depressed profitability
24:50 in the first half of the year?
24:52 - Your, let's say the order book,
24:54 the way the order book has been built.
24:56 So next two years,
24:58 this order book are going to be executed there.
25:00 So does the overall utilization,
25:02 everything will be improved.
25:03 So the profitability will be also,
25:05 is going to be improved in that coming days there.
25:08 Already we have seen into this first six months,
25:11 the improvements has been seen.
25:13 - And with that, it's a wrap on the EFNO show,
25:17 but stay tuned to NDTV Profit for more news and updates.
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