ما تأثير انسحاب أنغولا من "أوبك" على حصة المُنظمة بسوق النفط العالمية؟
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00:00 Angola, which joined the OPEC alliance in 2007, will leave in 2023.
00:09 What are the reasons and what does this mean for oil markets in particular and for the
00:16 decisions of OPEC and OPEC+ coming?
00:19 At first, this decision was not very surprising because during the last meeting of OPEC+
00:26 we learned that one of the most important reasons for postponing the meeting from 26 November
00:32 to 30 November is a disagreement with some African countries about low production levels.
00:39 Angola is the largest oil producer in Africa.
00:43 During the second half of this year, it was pressuring the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because
00:49 it wanted to raise the production baseline, which is based on OPEC and OPEC+
00:59 and of course, there is a quota of low production for each country.
01:05 Angola wanted to send a message to OPEC that it has a spare capacity,
01:12 but the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to solve this problem, appointed independent consultants
01:21 to determine the productive capacity of Angola.
01:24 The answer was that there is no productive capacity for Angola.
01:28 Therefore, a specific quota was set for Angola to lower production levels,
01:33 which Angola needed and left the last meeting in despair.
01:38 The Angolan Minister of Oil said that they feel that Angola does not gain anything from staying in the organization
01:45 and decided to leave in defense of its interests.
01:48 What are these interests? Of course, oil production.
01:51 90% of Angolan exports are oil exports, and therefore, it is in Angola's interest to export more oil.
02:01 But the big question is, does Angola really have a productive capacity?
02:06 What is the size of exports and production?
02:11 Before I talk about the details of this file, I remind you that Angola is the fourth country to withdraw from this group,
02:20 the OPEC group. We had withdrawals to Ecuador, Qatar and even Indonesia.
02:24 We had countries that joined the OPEC group, and it is expected that Brazil will join in 2024.
02:32 So, the difference between Angola and OPEC is that Angola says it has a productive production capacity
02:39 and is able to produce more oil.
02:41 First, Angola produces about 1.1 million barrels a day, which represents 2% of OPEC Plus production and 4% of OPEC production.
02:53 Therefore, Angola is not a country that has a large confidence in the production levels of OPEC Plus.
02:59 Therefore, today, although the reaction of the current action was to witness sharp declines in oil prices,
03:06 we witnessed the same decline in speed, because Angola is not a country that has confidence in the production size
03:14 because its production levels are low.
03:16 Even the International Energy Agency said that Angola's production levels of oil in November reached only 1.2 million barrels a day,
03:27 which is a 45% decline from its production levels in 2010.
03:32 It also said that it is produced at full capacity.
03:40 Therefore, today, the investor is not afraid that this exit will put OPEC or OPEC Plus in a dilemma.
03:47 If we look at the reaction of oil prices, yes, we witnessed big declines after this announcement,
03:53 but the reaction and the rise were also of the same strength.
03:57 Today, the investor is afraid if countries like the United Arab Emirates decided to withdraw from OPEC.
04:04 Why?
04:05 Because it is a country that has high production levels and has a positive production capacity,
04:10 which aims to reach 5 million barrels a day.
04:13 Therefore, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia are the countries that have the greatest confidence.
04:18 Countries like Angola do not have many fears because they cannot do oil dumping or increase oil pressure in the market
04:29 because they cannot do that, and this is what was being priced in the market.