كيف تؤثر التوترات الجيوسياسية على أسعار النفط؟
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00:00 and the rise of the risk.
00:05 Not only the economic risk, which Rula mentioned,
00:09 but also the increase in insurance,
00:11 the transition from the Mandeb to the Raja' Salih,
00:14 and the increase in costs.
00:18 The fear is not only about the prices of oil,
00:20 but also about the new inflation,
00:24 especially among the markets,
00:26 or the financial policy influencers
00:30 or the central bank's financial policy workers.
00:33 They are certainly afraid of the rise of numbers and inflation.
00:37 It is not only about geopolitical tensions
00:39 or the rise in insurance.
00:42 When we look at the size of global trade
00:44 that is taking place in the Red Sea,
00:46 30% of the oil rigs are there.
00:48 Four companies have stopped the transition from the Red Sea.
00:51 12% of global trade, 30% I mean,
00:53 are in the oil rigs that might pass through the Red Sea.
00:56 When we look at the data,
00:58 it certainly may cause fear
01:01 that the rise in oil prices may be delayed in the coming period.
01:06 The rise in inflation in the coming period
01:09 may be due to the fear of rising prices
01:11 or even delaying the arrival.
01:13 So, here are two main points.
01:15 The numbers of inflation, the fear of rising it,
01:17 and certainly the prices of oil, Rula.
01:19 Okay, Russia and the news,
01:22 there is a stir in the markets today.
01:24 Some have explained that it is the reason for the rise in oil prices.
01:27 That it wants to reduce exports by 50,000%.
01:30 Maybe it is afraid of subsidies.
01:32 Maybe it is afraid that the winter break
01:34 will cause some problems.
01:37 Is this only a temporary effect, Ahmed?
01:40 Rula, it may be a temporary effect.
01:43 The rise in numbers in the coming period
01:46 may give more fear
01:48 when we look at 50,000% daily.
01:51 These are not big numbers.
01:53 Russia has promised it in the coming period
01:57 to reduce voluntarily.
01:59 50,000% may not be a big deal.
02:02 But what the markets are waiting for
02:04 from the fear due to geopolitical tensions
02:07 is what scares the most.
02:08 Expanding the geopolitical tensions
02:10 is what scares the most.
02:12 Not only Russia, but the whole world.
02:15 50,000% is not a big number.
02:18 Russia has promised to reduce voluntarily.
02:20 It is the biggest number.
02:21 The winter break is what the economists expect.
02:26 When we look at the winter break,
02:28 it may need the biggest demand.
02:31 When we look at the lack of exports,
02:33 it may cause some fears
02:35 to balance the supply and demand.
02:37 This may give the numbers or the prices of oil
02:39 to rise in the coming period.
02:41 Rula, it is worth mentioning
02:43 that the expansion of geopolitical tensions
02:45 means that the markets may be able
02:47 to raise the prices of oil in the coming period.
02:50 Last question, Ahmad.
02:51 Tomorrow, the Japanese Central Bank meeting.
02:54 What do we expect to surprise the Japanese?
02:57 What are the Japanese movements today?
03:00 I don't think the Japanese Bank
03:03 will change its monetary policy in the end of the year,
03:06 especially since the numbers of the rewards
03:09 may need some confirmation of the rise.
03:11 We need to look at the fact that the economic expansion
03:15 in Japan is due to the local economic demand.
03:21 I think Japan may take some time
03:23 to meet tomorrow to balance the prices of oil.
03:26 But we may need a less severe approach
03:29 or a more severe approach to Japan.
03:33 We need some cracks.
03:34 We need Kazuo Ueda to give some hints.
03:36 I think the directions to change the monetary policy
03:39 may be in the beginning of the next year.
03:41 The first quarter to the second quarter
03:43 may be the direction of the Japanese Bank
03:45 to change the monetary policy.
03:46 Therefore, the Japanese Bank may push the Japanese yen
03:49 to record some increases.
03:51 Why not see the Japanese yen record some increases
03:54 due to the US dollar's decline in the coming period?
03:59 Rula, maybe you can say without Ramy
04:02 that the US dollar's decline
04:04 helped the Japanese yen to achieve some gains.
04:07 When we look at the Japanese yen,
04:09 we may see some positive directions in the coming period.
04:13 The Japanese yen may be the winning horse in 2024
04:18 due to the change in the monetary policy.
04:20 There are some big economies that have reduced interest rates
04:24 while the Japanese Bank has raised interest rates.
04:27 The Japanese yen may benefit
04:29 due to the changes in the monetary policy
04:31 in the coming period in 2024.