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NewsTranscript
00:00 "Everyone was watching the data plot, and this is how it differed from the last meeting
00:04 in September.
00:05 The expectations for 2024, all these members who voted and put the points on the data plot,
00:13 were 5.1% to reach the benefit in 2024, but in a meeting yesterday it was reduced to 4.6%.
00:24 And this means that according to projections, the federal budget for next year will reduce
00:31 the benefit 3 times, and the market is convinced up to 6 times."
00:37 And how did the perspective of investment banks change after the meeting and after the
00:43 press conference with Jerome Powell?
00:45 Is there a consensus on the market expectations or not?
00:48 "The market has entered a new pattern, because the price of soft landing has increased,
00:56 and there is a continuation of the rally that started in November, with the increase in
01:04 the price of the benefit.
01:06 The inflation rate in the US is expected to reach the federal target by the end of 2024
01:12 or the beginning of 2025, while the federal budget is expected to reach 2% by 2026.
01:19 There is a year of difference between HSBC's and the federal budget.
01:24 HSBC expects the federal budget to start reducing the benefit in the second quarter of
01:29 next year, but the question is how many operations are being raised and how does it agree with
01:35 the federal budget?
01:36 HSBC expects a good performance in the bonds market and a weak performance in the stock
01:42 market by 2024, and this is a striking thing, that it expects that we will have a rebound
01:48 in the stock market."
01:50 "As for Goldman Sachs, we have started to notice a change in the expectations of investment
01:58 banks, statements from here and there.
02:01 As for Goldman Sachs, it also sees that the reduction of interest rates will be done
02:07 earlier than expected and faster.
02:10 As HSBC expects, Goldman Sachs also expects to reduce interest rates, but Goldman Sachs
02:17 expects, closer to the federal expectations, that interest rates will be reduced by 25
02:23 points in three consecutive meetings.
02:26 But we are talking about March, so it will be early.
02:31 Some people are doubting these expectations, especially the market that is being bet on
02:38 six times."