اقتصادات منطقة MENA تحت مجهر وكالة Fitch
Transcript
00:00 Middle East and North Africa are under a fierce struggle regarding the credit rating and economic situation and economic growth.
00:08 What is the effect of this struggle?
00:10 It has a lot of content related to oil prices and the effects of the war that is taking place in the region and its direct and indirect effects.
00:19 And what are the countries that are greatly affected and others that are affected in a limited way despite the lack of expansion of the conflict?
00:26 Let's follow the numbers. What does Fitch say?
00:30 It says that the expected economic growth of the Gulf countries is 3.5% in the year 2024.
00:36 It relies on oil from the first degree and sets a reference price of $80 per barrel.
00:41 According to these numbers, this oil growth will be achieved in the countries that produce oil from the first degree.
00:48 We go to another reading of Fitch regarding oil growth in 2024.
00:53 Fitch says that it will be slower than 2023.
00:58 But despite that, it remains strong.
01:00 What do we understand from this context?
01:02 Fitch says that oil growth is what also caused this huge increase.
01:07 We have seen a variety of activities in some countries in the Gulf region.
01:10 Therefore, its oil return grew and contributed to these details.
01:14 In 2024, more reduction will be seen in production.
01:17 Fitch talks about the oil market and says that the weak global growth is one of the factors that can affect oil prices.
01:23 Therefore, the oil market will also change to the interest rate.
01:26 It will lead to the countries that produce and export oil to behave in a low way so that it can maintain prices and create some balance.
01:36 As for the other countries in North Africa, which Fitch classified as having a negative impact on the ongoing war in Gaza and the West Bank,
01:43 Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.
01:47 He talks about this from a logistical point of view, from the first degree, and direct and indirect.
01:51 There are areas and countries that are affected by tourism.
01:54 Other countries are affected by gas supplies.
01:56 Other countries are affected by what is happening in the region due to instability.
02:00 Fitch therefore goes with this view and the negative impact on these countries in particular.
02:06 Fitch also goes through her reading on the future outlook for the Middle East and some areas such as Qatar and the tent capital.
02:15 Fitch says that Israel's positive outlook under the negative review of the effects of the war on the Israeli budget was great.
02:23 We talked about a deficit of 11 billion dollars.
02:29 This is Fitch's reading of the Middle East and North Africa in light of all these developments.