Russia's war on Ukraine: Putin's 'wait West out' strategy appears to be weakening 'Western resolve'
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00:00 Let's get some more analysis so we can speak to Anna Borcherskaya, who is a senior fellow
00:05 and a Russia expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thank you very much indeed
00:09 for joining us once again here on France 24. First of all, can I just ask you for your thoughts on
00:14 Zelensky suddenly cancelling that appearance via video link to senators? Why do you think he's done
00:20 that? You know, I also don't quite know what to make of that. It is worrisome because Zelensky's
00:28 speech would have come at a critical time, as your previous correspondent described, at a time when
00:34 the future of military aid to Ukraine is at stake. So I'm also having a hard time understanding what
00:41 happened. Yeah, I mean, without this aid from Congress, this next tranche of military support,
00:49 I mean, can Ukraine really continue the war against Russia? Well, that is the question to
00:55 ask. And I don't think Ukraine can. What Ukrainians have been impressing upon the West for months is
01:06 that without this critical military assistance, they will not be able to continue fighting
01:12 as the war is about to reach its two-year anniversary. And with the West
01:23 now having to focus its attention not only to Ukraine, but also to Gaza, as well as the United
01:29 States turning to a presidential election in the next year, there's so many other priorities now
01:34 that Ukrainians are rightly worried that the longer the war goes on, the more they're being
01:42 put at a disadvantage. Yeah, I mean, that was what Putin banked on in the first place, wasn't it?
01:49 There would eventually be fatigue. It looks like he's got that calculation right. And he must be
01:56 watching these developments with a sense of absolute delight. Yeah, and that's exactly right.
02:02 His strategy appears to have been from the very beginning, and he did have a strategy,
02:07 and that was to wait the West out. If enough time passes, then Western resolve will weaken.
02:16 The ability for the West to hold together will weaken. And in the meantime, he was able to
02:22 continue to throw resources and people at the war. Because again, from his perspective,
02:31 he doesn't care how many people he sacrifices if he's willing to wait.
02:34 Can Europe step up to the plate a bit more and plug the gap, or is that simply unrealistic?
02:43 At this stage, that appears unrealistic. It's really the United States. And that's why
02:48 American military aid is so critical right now in helping Ukraine. Zelensky's message, of course,
02:55 earlier was always that if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, this will not end in Ukraine,
03:03 that he will keep going further. That's why this war was never been simply about Ukraine. It was
03:09 about something much bigger. Yeah, I mean, we've got an election coming up in the US. Obviously,
03:15 you're about to go into an election year over there. And I'm just wondering what the US public
03:21 makes of all of this, and whether there are any polls that indicate that perhaps it wouldn't be
03:27 in a candidate's interest to suggest carrying on supporting Ukraine. Are there any polls out there
03:33 that give you a sense of what US public opinion is like at this stage? Most recent polls show a
03:40 decline in support for Ukraine for continuing to fund the war in Ukraine, as compared to previous
03:47 polls, the polling was always majority was always supportive of Ukraine, but it appears to have
03:53 reached about approximately 50/50 level. President Biden's approval ratings as well appear to have
04:00 gone down based on most recent polls. So this raises a lot of worrisome questions about the
04:06 future. Because, of course, Donald Trump indicated that if he wins, he is not going to show Ukraine
04:13 the same level of support that the Biden administration has. And I mean, do you think
04:18 the level of support for Ukraine from both the US public and in the corridors of power is correlated
04:26 to the apparent, let's say, lack of breakthrough with regards to Ukraine's counter offensive? I
04:35 mean, is that what you think has driven this? I think that is an important component of that.
04:41 Absolutely. Unfortunately, there's been a misunderstanding of how the Ukrainian
04:47 counter offensive had gone. The fact of the matter is, the Ukrainians, with what the Ukrainians had
04:54 to work with, they had done very well. They had to fight a very difficult battle without air cover.
05:01 Frankly, our modern Western military would never engage in a battle like this. In other words,
05:07 we asked the Ukrainians to do what we ourselves right now in our modern times would not do.
05:12 In these circumstances, they've done well. So there's been a misunderstanding
05:17 that the Ukrainian counter offensive failed and the expectations were unrealistically high.
05:22 Okay, well, thank you very much, indeed, for taking the time to speak to us. That's all we
05:26 have time for. Anna Borcherskaya, Senior Fellow and Russia Expert at the Washington Institute
05:31 for Near East Policy. Thank you again.