الأسواق تترقب اجتماع أوبك هذا الأسبوع.. ما هي السيناريوهات المتوقعة؟
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00:00 So, Randa, it seems that the main factor today that the global markets are following is the oil prices movements
00:07 and also the anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.
00:11 How will it affect it and are there any surprises?
00:14 This is what we would like to know and what our guest from Dubai, the great strategist of the markets in the Equity group, will answer us.
00:22 Asadullah, your time is running out. What we are following today is the oil prices movements and the attempt to hold on to the 80 dollar mark.
00:32 In your opinion, are there any surprises that we might find in the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, the 30th of this month?
00:40 The investors are waiting with a lot of patience to see a surprise. The oil prices are returning to the trend.
00:56 Let's say that the trend that was moving in the last week or at least since the beginning of this year's transactions.
01:06 We have voluntary cuts and a lot of pressure from the supply or the oil supply.
01:15 On the other hand, there were some limits and some concerns about the demand, but it was better than it was.
01:28 Despite the negativity that we were seeing in the demand growth and expectations of demand growth, it is better than previous readings.
01:37 There is still optimism that the Chinese economy will grow more and that the European economy will decrease the level of inflation.
01:48 This economy can therefore react to the oil prices better.
01:53 But so far, we are seeing that the Chinese data this morning has come in a negative way and has actually put pressure on the oil prices in the downward direction.
02:05 It is possible that the oil will be able to achieve a week's profit after a series of reductions, but I think the process is based on voluntary additional cuts.
02:18 If we expect to see additional reductions, that is, agreements will be made on it in the near future, and if it really happens,
02:35 will this change the views of the crypto-political industry about these levels, which are affected by the nature of the inflation?
02:44 The process is related to both the demand and supply, Randa.
02:51 We are seeing that the demand may be more pressure on the downward direction, but in the end, without turning it into a profit or a success for the work for OPEC+,
03:03 therefore, there cannot be major reductions outside the reasonable framework.
03:11 Therefore, we can see more pressure on the upward direction if the demand is improved, if the Chinese data began to improve gradually.
03:22 If we hear, and this is what all investors in China are waiting for, specifically, a boost to the Chinese economy,
03:30 because I think it is the basis of the problem in the pressure of oil prices in the downward direction.
03:39 The process requires improvement in demand, in addition to survival and continuity, and perhaps an increase in voluntary reductions.
03:47 Yes, Raed, we are seeing today that the gold prices, which are touching its highest levels in six months, are almost benefiting from the dollar-index returns.
03:55 In your opinion, today, dollar-index returns may also record monthly losses in November, which is the worst in 2023.
04:04 To what extent will this give more pressure on gold prices?
04:09 Sally, last week we had inflation numbers, or CPI numbers, and this reading came with less than expected,
04:18 and this gives a kind of proof that the federal government is not obliged to enforce a long-term monetary policy.
04:27 This week, we have PCE numbers, which are personal consumption data, and it is one of the most prominent indicators that the federal government is actually following.
04:37 We are returning to the present and we are returning to the speech of Jerome Powell, waiting for data that confirms the need to enforce a monetary policy.
04:45 If the reading came with less than expected, I think that will put more pressure on the performance of the US dollar,
04:53 and will reduce the time period that may remain in high interest rates,
05:00 and perhaps we will look for reductions in interest rates in the fourth quarter of next year.
05:06 This will really make the performance of gold higher.
05:10 We saw how gold reacted clearly with data last week, and this strong start was launched above the $2,000 level.
05:19 Gold is likely to reach the historical peak in light of the current structure, the weakening of the US dollar,
05:27 and at the same time, the approach of the monetary policy renewal from the end, and the first direction is a more flexible policy for the future.
05:36 Raed, we also read in the interlude about Japan, which is back to the 2020 levels.
05:45 We are still talking about the higher goals of the Japanese bank this time.
05:50 In your opinion, what do we expect in the next meeting of the Japanese bank?
05:54 Are there any changes?
05:56 Maybe not in terms of the return, but we are talking about the policy of the Syrian bank, which the bank still follows.
06:06 I don't think the Japanese central bank will make a big change to this policy.
06:12 There were big expectations that there would be interventions from the Japanese bank when the exchange rates exceeded the 150 level.
06:24 Especially when we saw the strength of the US dollar, and we reached about 152.
06:32 The returns were weak in the US dollar, not in the Japanese yen.
06:38 The Japanese central bank is satisfied with its ultra-loose policy and controlling the return curve without any major changes.
06:51 Japan has been going through a long period of weak inflation.
06:56 The CPI numbers are declining significantly.
06:59 I don't think the crisis is a problem, but rather a necessary matter for the policy makers.
07:08 This means that they will maintain the monetary policy as it is without major changes.
07:14 Unless the situation requires it.
07:16 There were big directions towards the Japanese yen or the currency market, which were particularly affected.
07:21 But the central bank is committed to its policy of intervention through the transactions of foreign currencies and the Japanese yen, if necessary, in addition to the policy of controlling the return.
07:37 Thank you, Raed Alkhadr.
07:39 You are the market strategist for Equity Group.