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00:00 Fitch this time follows Moody's and S&P in lowering the credit rating for the Egyptian economy
00:10 and lowering the credit rating of foreign currencies for a long time to B-.
00:15 Let's stop at the details of the expectations for Fitch's agency for the Egyptian economy during this period and the next period.
00:24 First, we will talk about the lowering of the credit rating, which is the second time in 2023 that Fitch is lowering the credit rating for Egypt.
00:35 Therefore, the rating was lowered from B to B-, but this time the future perspective was changed from negative to positive.
00:44 This is due to the special program that Egypt is carrying out, in addition to the presidential elections in Egypt in December,
00:55 and the implementation of subsidies related to the currency exchange rate.
01:00 We also noticed that the international currency box review and the exchange rate related to loans of about 3 billion were monitored.
01:10 Some media sources also talked about it, and the value of this loan may rise to about 5 billion dollars.
01:18 But the main factors that Fitch put this time by lowering the credit rating, put several risks in the review box.
01:27 Therefore, we noticed that there are risks related to foreign funding and also about the risks related to the stability of the entire economy.
01:36 There are several factors, including the lack of foreign liquidity, and we also recently saw the lack of foreign currency,
01:44 which had clear effects on several factors.
01:47 The lack of this currency also affected in the next period the continuation of the rise in interest rates and also the high inflation,
01:55 which is now recording the highest historical levels in Egypt, and therefore exceeds 38 during this period.
02:02 We are also waiting for inflation data during this week.
02:06 Fitch also said that there are expectations of rising debt receivables after the year 2022-2023 was recorded,
02:15 close to 4.3 billion dollars.
02:18 It is expected that by the year 2023-2024 it will reach more than 8.8 billion dollars.
02:26 Therefore, we notice that there are statements from the director of the IMF that said that Egypt also removes the reserves of foreign currency,
02:36 which did not reduce the value of the currency.
02:39 The report also talked about Fitch this time about the stability of the exchange rate since February,
02:45 that it contradicts the central Egyptian commitments to the policy of the Maron exchange rate.
02:51 Therefore, the value of the pound that we saw in 2022 since the beginning of last year has been reduced by almost three times,
03:02 and therefore the local currency lost almost half of its value in exchange for the dollar.
03:07 In addition, the current price of the pound in exchange for the dollar reaches almost 31 pounds.
03:13 In exchange for the price in the equilateral market, it is close to the limits of about 46 dollars.
03:21 So, this gap may have an impact on confidence in the economy and also on the extent of the Egyptian economy's direction
03:29 to meet the demands of the IMF regarding the policy of the Maron exchange rate.
03:35 Finally, what we faced in the escalation of the military and the war in Gaza,
03:43 its impact may be clear on the Egyptian economy, especially in the tourism sector.
03:49 Fitch believes that this war will have an impact on the tourism sector and security conditions,
03:55 especially in Egypt, in light of these geopolitical tensions.
03:59 So, this was a look and expectations of Fitch for the Egyptian economy, in addition to the reduction of the rating to B-.
04:06 minus.