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00:00 We are still following the latest developments regarding this ongoing war between the Israelis
00:07 and the Palestinians.
00:08 Now we will talk about the expected impact, whether on the Israeli economy or even what
00:13 we followed from the impact on the stock markets, bonds and also the investors' direction
00:18 towards the withdrawal of Israel from its gold reserves.
00:22 First, this is the performance of the TA35 indicator, which is the indicator that measures
00:30 Israeli stocks.
00:31 We have seen the biggest monthly loss since the coronavirus in October.
00:34 We have seen a withdrawal of more than 11% of the 100.
00:37 We had, of course, huge losses of $124 billion in terms of market value losses, which
00:44 have been significantly reduced due to the effects of this war.
00:48 Today, this war does not only reflect the spirit, but the companies working in Israel
00:52 whether they are local Israeli companies or foreign companies that have branches in Israel.
00:58 All of this is taken into account in the indicators and is taken into account for the companies
01:04 that work there in terms of losses.
01:08 The biggest market losses are the financing sectors, the sectors related to banks in
01:14 general.
01:15 We must not forget that the Central Israeli Bank has imposed a priority on the economy
01:19 and in the market and has committed to increasing pressure to finance liquidity.
01:25 We have seen a lot of pressure on the real estate sector and also on the technology sector.
01:29 This is the biggest bank share in Israel.
01:31 Notice these harsh withdrawals that we have seen.
01:35 Banks are usually more sensitive in political crises and wars because what happens is that
01:41 investors resort to banks to withdraw deposits.
01:44 This is number one.
01:45 Number two, there is a lot of pressure on liquidity.
01:49 Companies withdraw their debts and this also affects the liquidity of banks.
01:53 Therefore, it is the sector that is most exposed to pressure.
01:56 As for the expected recovery in the fourth quarter of this year, the cause of this war
02:01 and these expectations, according to S&P Global, is talking about a 5% recovery.
02:06 JP Morgan is seeing a 11% recovery.
02:09 There is another factor to consider, which is that Israel cannot finance this war for
02:14 a long time.
02:15 There is a cost, not only economic, but also a cost on the special balance in Israel,
02:20 which will be very large during the coming period, as indicated by many investment banks.
02:26 S&P has changed its future view from stable to negative and is talking about 5.3% of the
02:32 expected government deficit between 2023 and 2024, meaning the balance of this financial year
02:39 due to the large defense spending that we have seen during this war.
02:44 Investors were very worried about these tensions and we have seen that we have a rise in the
02:49 cost of insurance on Israeli debts.
02:53 The five-year CDS has risen to 93 points.
02:57 The cost of insurance on Israeli debts for the next ten years has reached 165 points.
03:03 At the beginning of the war, it was only 85 points, and this shows the great impact of
03:09 investors in the war.
03:12 The Israeli shikah lost more than 6% of its value in the face of the US dollar in October,
03:18 which is a possibility for it to continue during the coming period, especially with the great
03:23 pressure on the economy and the pressure on the government balance at the same time.
03:28 The recovery that we have seen was very large for the Israeli companies' debts.
03:35 Most of the sectors, including food services and construction, had a large recovery in
03:40 their revenues, even foreign companies that have jobs and are largely exposed to the Israeli
03:47 market today are under great pressure.
03:49 We also have a sharp drop in the number of workers, which negatively affects these companies
03:55 that work in these sectors or even in others.