Raiders Face Must-Win Game: Can They Upset the Lions in Detroit?
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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - The Lions, seven and a half point favorites tonight
00:06 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
00:07 These two teams are very hard to predict.
00:10 Boy, the Lions had their worst game of the season last week.
00:13 The Raiders week to week just always seem
00:15 to be this Jekyll and Hyde team that you can't predict.
00:17 Now at the very least, I do believe,
00:19 from what I understand, Jimmy Garoppolo
00:21 is gonna play in this game tonight.
00:23 So the total is 46 and a half.
00:24 Leads me to believe maybe potentially
00:27 we could have some decent amount of points
00:29 being scored tonight.
00:30 Hopefully that is the case.
00:32 Warren, do you think the Raiders
00:33 can at least keep this game close?
00:36 I know that without Jimmy Garoppolo,
00:38 they have no chance of doing that
00:40 as we saw with Brian Horner last week against the Bears,
00:42 by the way, who looked horrible last night
00:45 against the Chargers.
00:46 - Yeah, I do think that Jimmy G is going to play.
00:50 Now I could be wrong,
00:51 but that's what I'm expecting at this moment.
00:53 And the odds have certainly shifted
00:55 in that direction as well.
00:56 With the line dropping down to seven at several books
01:00 as we're recording this.
01:02 And look, the Raiders had a supposedly a closed door meeting
01:06 a couple of days ago where they were allowing,
01:09 it was almost like a festivus.
01:10 It was an airing of grievances.
01:11 Everybody was able to stand up,
01:13 talk about some of the things that were bothering them.
01:16 And apparently a lot of the different players,
01:17 some of the stars and some of the non-stars
01:20 were there contributing and airing their grievances.
01:23 And definitely a festivus for the rest of us
01:26 and for the Raiders.
01:27 Now that tends to have an effect.
01:30 I have noticed on betting markets,
01:32 for whatever reason, when teams have something like that,
01:35 it could spark change.
01:37 And as a result, that tends to shift towards the team
01:41 that just had such a meeting.
01:42 This game though is gonna come down to me at least
01:45 in terms of pressure.
01:46 You've got Jimmy G who is the number one
01:48 most sensitive quarterback to pressure in the NFL.
01:51 Some of his splits, when he's pressured,
01:53 he ranks dead last in EPA per attempt.
01:56 He ranks dead last in completion percentage.
01:58 He's completing only 35% of his passes on the season
02:02 when he's pressured.
02:03 He has zero touchdowns and five interceptions
02:06 when he has been pressured.
02:07 So worst EPA, worst completion rate,
02:10 zero touchdowns, five interceptions.
02:12 He's been terrible.
02:13 And the Detroit Lions on early downs,
02:15 rank number three in pressure rate.
02:17 On all downs, rank number seven in pressure rate.
02:19 So they're also playing at home.
02:21 They've got that home field advantage going for them.
02:23 They've been on the road for the past two weeks.
02:26 We know this team has historically home road splits
02:29 with Goff there.
02:30 They play better at home.
02:32 They play worse on the road.
02:33 Their offense tends to score more points at home.
02:35 Their defense tends to play a little bit better as well
02:38 when they are at home.
02:39 So those are all the things that are favoring the Raiders.
02:41 Sorry, favoring the Detroit Lions.
02:43 I involved the Detroit Lions previously
02:46 in a couple of teaser legs and I'm looking to close out.
02:49 But I can tell you, you know,
02:50 I don't necessarily love the odds shifting down to seven.
02:53 That makes it for a less compelling teaser element.
02:56 But I do think the Lions, barring a mistake,
03:00 should get things done here.
03:01 I just, if I'm betting this game ATS,
03:03 I don't think I'm laying the points with the Denver,
03:06 with the Detroit Lions here.
03:08 (upbeat music)
03:10 [MUSIC]