Lebanon 'might not recover' from 'devastating' effects of second front if Hezbollah were to join war
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00:00 I'm joined here in the studio by Karim Emile Bitar. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
00:04 You're a professor of international relations at Beirut's Saint-Giosephe University.
00:08 Just a word of warning, we are waiting to hear from the US President Joe Biden,
00:12 who's going to give a statement very shortly at the White House, and we'll go to that as
00:15 soon as he starts speaking. But let's just pick up on what's happening in Lebanon and on the
00:20 border between Lebanon and Syria. What are your thoughts? How do you interpret Hezbollah's actions
00:26 and do you see Lebanon potentially being dragged into this conflict?
00:30 There is a genuine risk of a second front on the Lebanese border. So far Hezbollah has been
00:37 relatively cautious. They are trying to maintain a degree of separation, so the rockets that were
00:42 launched were not officially launched by Hezbollah, but rather by the Islamic Jihad,
00:48 a faction that is part of the same axis. So Hezbollah is trying to maintain plausible
00:54 deniability so far. The rules of engagement have not totally changed. However, if there is a blood
00:59 bath in Gaza in the next few days or in the next few weeks, and if Iran gives the green light,
01:06 there is a risk that Hezbollah could join and open the second front, which would be absolutely
01:12 devastating for Lebanon. Lebanon has gone through nightmares in the past few years,
01:18 economic crisis, the Beirut port blast, an unprecedented rise in poverty. So a new Israel-Lebanon
01:27 war, Lebanon might simply not be able to recover from it.
01:32 My understanding yesterday, when we were hearing these conflicting statements from Hezbollah,
01:38 on the one hand, they seem to be saying that they had struck targets on the Israeli side of the
01:45 border. And then they seem to be saying that actually, no, they didn't. I found these two
01:50 narratives sort of as if they were trying to talk tough to their domestic audience and trying to
01:54 sound tough and then tiptoeing slightly around matters to an international audience. Do you
02:00 think that's perhaps what they were doing? Absolutely. I think this is a strategy,
02:04 you have identified it correctly. They are trying on purpose to maintain this ambiguity,
02:09 to send a message to Hamas that we are, we stand in solidarity with you, but they are very cautious
02:15 last year, they signed a maritime border demarcation deal with Israel that was
02:21 engineered by the United States. So they de facto recognized the state of Israel last year.
02:29 So now it would be extremely, it would be a new paradigm shift if Hezbollah has to join this
02:39 war. But again, I'm afraid it is Iran that has the final word. Yes, indeed, in Iran, it's been
02:46 in denial mode as well today. And I'm just wondering whether perhaps they're being careful
02:51 in Iran, because they know, and I don't know if social media images and videos are to be
02:56 fully relied upon in these situations. But domestically, things do seem fragile in Iran.
03:01 We've seen things blow up in Iran in the last 12 months, to an extent that the authorities
03:06 seem to be managing to contain things. And it does seem to be the case that there is zero appetite
03:12 in Iran for this type of a conflict. Yes, absolutely. I would say that over 70%
03:19 of the Iranian population is radically hostile to the regime, particularly the youth.
03:24 Iran is one of the most secularized society, paradoxically, in the entire Muslim world.
03:30 And I think this is also one of the reasons why Secretary Blinken said that so far there are no
03:36 proofs, there is no smoking gun regarding Iran taking part in preparing these attacks. So I think
03:45 Iran is trying to be cautious and the United States is trying to prevent an Iranian escalation.
03:51 But of course, Iran not condemning those attacks by Hamas, by any stretch of the imagination,
03:56 they seem to applaud them today saying they'd kiss the hands of the people responsible. And
04:01 obviously they didn't want to see that deal go through, the normalization of ties between
04:08 Saudi and Israel. Why not? Because the ongoing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia that dates
04:16 back to 1979 is still very much in their minds. Even though they signed a Beijing brokered agreement
04:25 a few months ago, they are still very reluctant to see their Saudi nemesis normalize relations
04:32 with Israel. But things have improved a little bit, haven't they, in recent months? We've got
04:37 that impression. Indeed. We have a certain degree of de-escalation. It's a détente, but it's not yet
04:42 an entente. It has not given serious results in Yemen or in Lebanon. But the fact is Iran is
04:50 increasingly influential in the Middle East. And this started when the US invaded Iraq in 2003.
04:56 Paradoxically, it allowed Iran to become the leading regional power and to extend its reach
05:02 to the Mediterranean Sea. Let's talk about Israel's response. There are 100 hostages,
05:10 maybe 150 hostages inside Gaza right now. That doesn't seem to have represented the same
05:17 barrier that we might have imagined it would represent to how Israel responded. I mean,
05:22 it doesn't seem, does it, to have changed the Israeli response. They've gone ahead anyway,
05:26 despite the threat of what might happen to those hostages with a massive aerial bombardment.
05:31 I think the trauma in Israel is really unprecedented. They rarely have had so many
05:37 people killed and slaughtered in less than 72 hours. So the Israeli public is probably expecting
05:46 an extremely devastating response. The problem is in the past three or four decades,
05:54 every one of these "counterattacks" proved to be extremely counterproductive, and it led to
06:00 the emergence of movements that were even more radical than the movements that Israel was
06:06 initially fighting. When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, they managed to eradicate Fatah. But
06:12 soon after, Hezbollah emerged, which is a much more powerful enemy. So the only iron law in
06:18 Middle East politics is the law of unintended consequences. So Israel has to be extremely
06:22 cautious, because if it proceeds with a ground operation in Gaza, it would not only inflame
06:28 the feeling of solidarity towards Palestinians throughout the world, but it could very well
06:33 also prove to be counterproductive, even for the current Israeli radical government.
06:39 Israel's got some new friends since the last time it found itself in a situation as difficult as
06:43 this. And I'm talking about friends in the Arab world, countries like the United Arab Emirates,
06:47 Morocco, potentially Saudi in the background. Qatar seems to be playing a productive role as
06:52 well, even though they haven't normalised ties. What can they bring to the table,
06:56 these new friends? And do you think Israel's listening to them?
07:00 Well, when we mention those new friends, we need to mention an important caveat. Israel is getting
07:06 closer to the leaders of this country. It's getting closer to the Gulf monarchs. But when you
07:11 look at public opinion in the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, public opinion is still very much
07:18 in solidarity with the Palestinians. So it will be increasingly difficult for these governments
07:24 to continue the normalisation process with Israel, because even though they are not democracies,
07:31 there is a feeling, they know that their public opinion is not on board. And a turning point was
07:36 the World Cup soccer that happened in Qatar, when the Moroccan players started winning and raised
07:42 the Palestinian flags in the stadiums. I think they all realised that they had to slow down
07:46 this normalisation process. Yeah. And do you think if Israel's too harsh
07:51 in Gaza, I mean, if it's perceived in the Arab world, that perhaps they've gone beyond what
07:57 would be by anybody's standards, a reasonable response? Could those relationships be in jeopardy?
08:03 Could they be in peril? Yes, they would be in jeopardy. There is still
08:08 across the Arab world and across the Muslim world, a very intense solidarity with the Palestinians.
08:13 People do not understand why there is such a huge mobilisation for Ukraine when Ukraine is illegally
08:20 invaded and occupied. And they think that because Palestinians are not blonde and blue eyed,
08:26 they can suffer for decades under occupation, and the West simply does not care. So this sense of
08:33 being completely dispossessed and disempowered will only lead to further radicalisation
08:40 if we do not see superpowers, United States, France, European Union and others,
08:46 put finally some pressure on Israel after decades of blind and unconditional support.
08:52 If Israel realises that occupation has a price in terms of its image, but also economically,
08:57 it is still getting $4 billion a year from the United States. So the United States does
09:02 have leverage, but it's not using it. Okay, well, I've been seeing some movement
09:06 at the White House, which makes me think that Joe Biden might be about to come around the corner.
09:11 We'll take a chance. Let me ask you this question, putting you on the spot slightly, Professor.
09:17 How do we make sure that Saturday's events are never again repeated?
09:22 Only by changing the complete logic that has been so pervasive in the past decades.
09:29 The global war on terror worldwide has provoked much more victims than terrorism itself. And if
09:36 Israel launches a massive retaliation in Gaza, we can expect thousands of civilian victims. So the
09:44 rationale behind the global war on terror is deeply flawed. After 9/11, the United States
09:50 declared this global war on terror. 20 years later, we have paid dozens of billions of dollars,
09:55 and yet terrorism has only been much more widespread and is now present in dozens of
10:01 countries. It's no longer isolated in Tora Bora in Afghanistan.
10:05 And a country like Qatar playing this role that it's playing, trying to negotiate the freedom
10:11 of some of the hostages we understand very much in the background. Do they have much sway over
10:15 Hamas? Absolutely, they do have a lot of sway over Hamas. They have supported Hamas
10:21 financially in the past. Qatar could play a significant role. However, I'm not sure the
10:27 Israelis are ready. They want their hostages out. But I'm not sure they are ready to make
10:34 further concessions. And even Saudi Arabia had demanded a series of conditions before
10:38 accepting normalization. Professor, let me cut you short. The US president is speaking.
10:42 Let's cross to the White House. I mean this literally when the pure
10:47 unadulterated evil is unleashed on this world. The people of Israel live through one such moment
10:57 this weekend. The bloody hands of the terrorist organization Hamas, a group who stated purpose
11:05 for being is to kill Jews. This was an act of sheer evil. More than 1,000 civilians slaughtered,
11:16 not just killed, slaughtered in Israel. Among them, at least 14 American citizens killed.
11:24 Parents butchered using their bodies to try to protect their children.
11:30 Stomach-turning reports of babies being killed. Entire families slain. Young people massacred
11:38 while attending a musical festival to celebrate peace. To celebrate peace.
11:42 Women raped, assaulted, paraded as trophies. Families hid their fear for hours and hours,
11:51 desperately trying to keep their children quiet, to avoid drawing attention.
11:58 And thousands of wounded, alive but carrying with them the bullet holes and the shrapnel wounds and
12:04 the memory of what they endured. You all know these traumas never go away. There's still so
12:12 many families desperately waiting to hear the fate of their loved ones, not knowing if they're alive
12:17 or dead or hostages. Infants in their mother's arms, grandparents in wheelchairs,
12:23 Holocaust survivors abducted and held hostage. Hostages whom Hamas has now threatened to execute
12:30 in violation of every code of human morality. It's abhorrent. The brutality of Hamas,
12:39 his bloodthirstiness brings to mind the worst -- the worst rampages of ISIS.
12:48 This is terrorism. But sadly, for the Jewish people, it's not new. This attack has brought
12:56 to the surface painful memories and the scars left by a millennia of anti-Semitism
13:02 and genocide of the Jewish people. So in this moment, we must be crystal clear.
13:12 We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to
13:21 take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack. There's no justification
13:28 for terrorism. There's no excuse. Hamas does not stand for the Palestinians' people's right to
13:35 dignity and self-determination. Its stated purpose is the annihilation of the state of Israel and the
13:41 murder of Jewish people. They use Palestinian civilians as human shields. Hamas offers nothing
13:50 but terror and bloodshed with no regard to who pays the price. The loss of innocent life is
14:00 heartbreaking. Like every nation in the world, Israel has the right to respond,
14:07 indeed, has a duty to respond to these vicious attacks. I just got off the phone with -- on a
14:15 third call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and I told him, "The United States experience what
14:21 Israel is experiencing, our response will be swift, decisive, and overwhelming."
14:25 We also discussed how democracies like Israel and the United States are stronger
14:31 and more secure when we act according to the rule of law. Terrorists purposely target civilians,
14:41 kill them. We uphold the laws of war, the law of war. It matters. There's a difference.
14:49 Today, Americans across the country are praying for all those families that have been ripped apart.
14:58 A lot of us know how it feels. It leaves a black hole in your chest when you lose family,
15:02 feeling like you're being sucked in -- the anger, the pain, a sense of hopelessness.
15:12 This is what they mean by a human tragedy, an atrocity on an appalling scale.
15:26 We're going to continue to stand united, supporting the people of Israel who are
15:30 suffering unspeakable losses and opposing the hatred and violence of terrorism.
15:36 My team has been in near-constant communication with our Israeli partners
15:43 and partners all across the region and the world from the moment this crisis began.
15:48 We're surging additional military assistance, including ammunition
15:53 and interceptors, to replenish Iron Dome. We're going to make sure that Israel does not run out
15:59 of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens. My administration has consulted
16:07 closely with Congress throughout this crisis. And when Congress returns, we're going to ask
16:13 them to take urgent action to fund the national security requirements of our critical partners.
16:20 This is not about party or politics. This is about the security of our world,
16:25 the security of the United States of America.
16:29 We now know that American citizens are among those being held by Hamas.
16:35 I've directed my team to share intelligence and deploy additional experts from across
16:41 the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts
16:47 on hostage recovery efforts. Because, as President, I have no higher priority than
16:53 the safety of Americans being held hostage around the world. The United States has also
16:59 enhanced our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence.
17:04 The Department of Defense has moved the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group
17:10 to the eastern Mediterranean and bolstered our fighter aircraft presence.
17:15 And we stand ready to move in additional assets as needed.
17:18 Let me say again to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking
17:26 advantage of this situation, I have one word -- don't. Don't.
17:32 Our hearts may be broken, but our resolve is clear. Yesterday, I also spoke with the leaders
17:41 of France, Germany, Italy, and U.K. to discuss the latest developments with our European allies
17:47 and coordinate our united response. This comes on top of days of steady engagement with partners
17:55 across the region. We're also taking steps at home. In cities across the United States of America,
18:03 police departments have stepped up security around centers for -- of Jewish life.
18:08 The Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are working closely
18:12 with state and local law enforcement and Jewish community partners to identify and disrupt
18:17 any domestic threat that could emerge in connection with these horrific attacks.
18:21 This is a moment for the United States to come together, to grieve with those who are mourning.
18:31 Let's be real clear. There is no place for hate in America -- not against Jews,
18:38 not against Muslims, not against anybody. We reject -- we reject -- what we reject is terrorism.
18:46 We condemn the indiscriminate evil, just as we've always done. That's what America stands for.
18:54 You know, just over 50 years ago, I was thinking about it this morning, talking
18:59 to the Secretary of State and the Vice President in my office. And over 50 years ago,
19:04 as a young senator, I visited Israel for the first time as a newly elected senator.
19:12 And I had a long, long trip -- a meeting with Golda Meir in her office,
19:19 just before the Yom Kippur War.
19:26 And I guess she could see the consternation on my face as she described what was being faced --
19:32 they were facing. We walked outside in that -- that, sort of, hallway outside her office
19:40 to have some photos. She looked at me all of a sudden and said, "Would you like to have a
19:45 photograph?" And so I got up and followed her out. We were standing there silent,
19:52 looking at the press. She could tell, I guess, I was concerned. She leaned over and whispered to
19:58 me. She said, "Don't worry, Senator Biden. We have a secret weapon here in Israel."
20:03 My word is what she said. "We have no place else to go. We have no place else to go."
20:15 For 75 years, Israel has stood as the ultimate guarantor of the security of Jewish people
20:22 around the world so that the atrocities of the past could never happen again.
20:26 And let there be no doubt the United States has Israel's back. We will make sure the Jewish and
20:35 democratic state of Israel can defend itself today, tomorrow, as we always have. It's as
20:41 simple as that. These atrocities have been sickening. We're with Israel. Let's make no mistake.
20:51 Thank you.
20:51 Okay, we're just listening there to the U.S. President Joe Biden speaking at the White House
21:04 with his vice president at his side. "We stand with Israel," he says, as he reiterated his
21:10 condemnation of Hamas for their deadly weekend attacks on Israeli soil. He called those attacks
21:15 "an act of sheer evil." He also talked about the American hostages being held
21:20 by Hamas and said that 14 Americans believed to have been killed.