Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr. | The Manila Times Roundtable - video Dailymotion

The Manila Times

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Transcript

00:00 [MUSIC]

00:10 Secretary Gilberto Dutero, welcome to the Manila Times, sir.

00:14 Thank you very much, Kling.

00:16 So I really appreciate your time because we can only imagine how full your schedule is,

00:20 not only normally but given the situation in the region.

00:24 Maybe we can start off with that.

00:25 What is your reading of our security landscape?

00:30 What are the challenges that you're keeping an eye on?

00:33 And maybe what's the directive from the president?

00:37 Well, the directive of the president is to secure our territory,

00:43 to secure our sovereign rights, and to make sure that not one inch is taken.

00:51 In that spirit, in the region, we see, of course, a lot of, I wouldn't say volatility,

00:59 but a lot of dynamism in alliance building and changes between and among countries.

01:08 Some even extra-regionally are allies, like India and Canada right now are interested.

01:16 Yeah, but... Oh, yeah, you know what I mean, the assassination of the...

01:21 Right, but they are both our partners in upholding the rules-based international order.

01:30 Of course, there is no denying that the Chinese incursions into the West Philippines

01:36 are the most critical territorial defense threat for us,

01:43 not only politically, but of course, economically and geopolitically.

01:49 Our approach there is, of course, to make sure that these incursions are stopped,

01:59 to put it frankly.

02:01 And the world's interest there, because China claims the whole of the South China Sea,

02:07 and more extensively now with the 10-dash line,

02:10 is that sea lanes of communication and international overflight is preserved.

02:15 And I'm very, very happy that the world sees the plight of the Philippines

02:22 in terms of converged interests, because the South China Sea is squeezed,

02:28 then a vital supply chain link is closed.

02:32 We feel that every day too with the Russia-Ukraine war in terms of energy costs.

02:41 And other supply chain issues.

02:43 China too is important to us in the sense that Taiwan and China,

02:52 they produce a lot of electronics that we need, like chips and

02:59 other things that we need for everyday life.

03:06 But that being said, it's a calculus between this, the economic benefits,

03:13 and the creeping expansionism of China.

03:17 Where I sit, my job is solely to stop it.

03:22 Not only for us, but for the future generations.

03:27 In that respect, we have rethought our strategies in the Defense Department.

03:35 We are coming out with a national defense strategy,

03:37 and a new horizon for our modernization.

03:42 Because the assumptions that we made before in creating our horizons was

03:48 the main bulk of our operations would be internal,

03:54 and then gradually transformed to external when the modernization law was started.

04:02 Now, this has changed.

04:04 We need to up our game in terms of capabilities, skills, and processes,

04:10 particularly in information technology, digitization, and cyber security.

04:17 Not only cyber security in that sense, but the cyber sphere as a tool for management,

04:27 as a tool for connectivity, which we call C4ISTAR.

04:34 And as a tool for efficiency.

04:36 But sometimes, the media is criticized for maybe hyping up the negative.

04:44 And so when people look at, say, the issue you mentioned, the West Philippine Sea,

04:48 the continuous confrontation, sometimes you get a sense that things that are a very

04:56 tense situation, but you're at the forefront.

05:03 From where you stand, what is the level of threat?

05:07 Is it more subdued than what maybe the general media reports it?

05:13 Or is it about right?

05:14 Or what is your sense of, I suppose, the threat of conflict?

05:20 I think the threat of confrontation is there, but the threat of conflict to me is not really--

05:32 It's not imminent.

05:33 However, that being said, we all should be concerned.

05:39 On our side, everybody knows where the government's coming from.

05:45 Because we have transparency, we have freedom of the press, of the speech,

05:51 and almost everything is disclosed.

05:53 And now even Congress wants to cut, some people want to cut confidential intelligence funds.

05:59 So what does that mean?

06:00 Everything that we do, where we need to harden for national security purposes,

06:05 our processes may be telegraphed.

06:09 Now, in fairness, not Congress, but other sectors, particularly civil society.

06:17 There's a saying that don't pray too much for what you want, because you may just get it.

06:24 And it may not be what we want.

06:27 Yeah, we'll regret it later.

06:30 On the other hand, China is not transparent.

06:34 We do not know how their political processes work.

06:40 Right now, their defense minister has gone on an extended vacation.

06:45 Their foreign minister has gone on an extended vacation.

06:50 What does this mean?

06:51 And China's strategy basically is laid down on paper.

06:57 Fine.

06:57 And there are broad strokes.

07:00 They want to be the strongest armed force by the year 2040.

07:05 They want to have global reach.

07:07 They want to have full control over their territories.

07:12 And the strongest armed force, they are designed, as President Xi said, to win conflicts.

07:22 Because what's the use of an armed force if they don't win?

07:25 So this means force projection, capability for aggression, and other things.

07:32 However, that strategy, we don't know how much that is translated into actual operations.

07:40 Because the fundamental rule, really, that anybody should follow is deception is the name of the game.

07:47 Sure.

07:49 So if we think anybody in this country, even the scholars, even those who are advocating that

08:00 China has peaceful intentions, we really do not know the basis.

08:05 We don't know.

08:05 I was going to ask about that.

08:08 Because I remember watching just the news in the States how there is like a back,

08:13 I'm not sure if it's called a back channel, but an official channel between the

08:17 defense establishment and the Chinese.

08:20 Just to, I suppose, avert a mistake.

08:24 You mentioned that the defense minister is not there, but is there any communication between you

08:32 and the- No, that's the Foreign Affairs Department.

08:34 We really pass through the Foreign Affairs Department.

08:36 So not like in other countries, but you talk to your counterparts just to maybe avoid any

08:41 kind of miscalculation or something?

08:42 No, because with our armed force and with our defense establishment,

08:47 we do not need ambassadors attached to us, unlike US Indo-PACOM, where there is a

08:53 State Department ambassador attached.

08:56 And their processes are more mature and in the sense of size, in the sense of size than us.

09:07 So for us, we pass through the Department of Foreign Affairs and coordination between us is

09:12 good. And at what point do you think it becomes a military first approach?

09:20 Because right now it's a diplomatic approach, which is, I think, reassuring to a point.

09:27 But as you said, there are developments happening that may suggest it's not getting any better.

09:37 There's confrontation going on. But at what point do you think would it become now a military

09:44 rather than a diplomatic priority? I'll frame it this way. The diplomatic,

09:48 if not backed up by military capabilities, your bargaining leverage is less.

09:55 So the military and the diplomatic go hand in hand in that sense. So it should always,

10:05 as much as possible, be diplomatic but backed up by the ability to say no.

10:09 Well, the resupply of our people in Scarborough, I mean, that's again in the news.

10:18 At what point do you think the Defense Department or our military would step in and maybe protect

10:29 or maybe put some more, I suppose, escorts or have more military presence in that resupply mission?

10:37 It's hard to say right now because we have been successful in our resupplies.

10:43 So it's really hard to tell. And given the unpredictability of the behavior of China

10:50 and their use of pseudo post guard vessels, which are actually military vessels.

10:58 Yeah. Is it true that they put their coast guard under their Navy now or something?

11:03 No. Technically it's not. But in function, they're under the Central Military Commission anyway.

11:10 Unlike us, our coast guard is purely civilian because the primary mandate of coast guard is

11:17 really for maritime safety and security. Okay. So it's not gray on gray masquerading

11:24 as a gray on white situation on their part? Well, for us, because our engagements with

11:32 the international community is on the basis of following international law.

11:38 We comply with that because we can't go to court with dirty hands.

11:43 Yeah. You mentioned a 10-line earlier. What are the security implications?

11:48 For me, it is really an assertion of China of its intent to secure control over these areas.

11:56 They claim that the nine-dash line is a basis for discussion and negotiation.

12:01 Good if there was an accepted, open and transparent way of negotiating, but they do

12:10 not want multilateralism, which is the best way of settling disputes because it's fair and impartial

12:17 and at arm's length. Secondly, there's no framework for talks because everything is whispered.

12:25 I see. How will our people accept that? In their society, probably it's okay

12:34 because they have an autocratic society. So here we can't. Although they call themselves

12:42 a democracy, can I advocate anti-Chinese propaganda in their country? No way.

12:50 I don't think I can do what I do here. Definitely. Now, I just want to underscore this.

12:58 We may agree or disagree on the arbitral award. But I wrote before in a publication that

13:09 it was a chance for China to prove its claims to the world. But they decided not to.

13:16 They decided not to. So, it adds to the mistrust by the world and by a majority,

13:28 90% of the Filipinos or more, of their intentions. And the more they propagandize,

13:35 and their propaganda just distances the Filipino because it's patronizing.

13:46 Sure. They patronize people. But at the same time, by claiming that they're peaceful,

13:52 I heard some talk the other day that let's forget the politics and just do this.

14:01 World government officials sworn to uphold the constitution. And the sovereign rights within the

14:07 360-degree exclusive economic zone are for our posterity. So, how can we do that?

14:16 I want to ask how you think we should move forward. I realize that officially you're

14:26 Secretary of Defense and you're limited to your portfolios, responsibilities, but you've also been

14:31 a lawmaker. Your experience in government has been extensive. So, I'm drawing on that

14:38 experience and asking your opinion. How do we move forward given all of these dynamics?

14:47 For me, right now, the Philippines has a lot of goodwill in the international community,

14:53 despite China's attempts to economically weaponize its economic diplomacy.

15:02 So, let us engage more with like-minded countries. However, it's a two-way street.

15:13 These are Philippine interests here and they must see the need to invest in the Philippines,

15:19 make our economy more robust, make our defense capabilities more robust, so that there is a

15:26 bastion of enforcement of international law in this place. The president is also working very

15:34 hard on getting ASEAN consensus on this. If not, in whole, in part, with like-minded countries.

15:43 And a lot of the diplomatic exchanges led by the president are ongoing on this, so that we also

15:51 get a consensus in our neighborhood. But right now, the UK, Australia, Canada, even Norway,

16:01 the EU, France, Spain, South Korea, naturally, Japan have spoken out in favor of the Philippines

16:13 and in favor of enforcing the arbitral award. So, given that, the arbitral award already has value

16:23 as something that powerful countries are willing to go at least to the public domain with.

16:35 And it is also up to us really to show that we can build up our strength to stand up to these

16:46 threats. Because our capability should not be limited to China. I mean, it should be threat

16:55 agnostic. Because any country in the, I mean, China also has in that document that the report

17:04 of presidency to the 20th Congress. It plainly states there that if you do not have a strong

17:13 armed force, you're not a strong country. Sorry to the peaceniks. - I get you.

17:21 - Even New Zealand now is recalibrating. - Even Japan, I think is quite interesting.

17:29 - Japan, yes, because they have territorial disputes with China, but New Zealand itself,

17:34 without any threat within its area, feels the need to enforce international law because its

17:45 supply chains are going to be affected. - A few weeks ago, there were some joint

17:49 patrols. - Joint sales, we called them.

17:52 - Oh, well, yeah, among ASEAN members. Is that something that the Philippines, I'm not sure,

17:59 I seem to remember that the Philippines was not part of that joint patrol, but it wasn't in the

18:05 contentious issues. - Right, it was more in the States.

18:08 - More in the States. Is that something that the Philippines is looking at?

18:12 - Yes, yes. - Maybe, and then maybe do that in

18:16 the more contentious parts of the West Philippine Sea? - Well, we do that. To us,

18:23 there's no contentious part. It's only China contending. - So your position is, as President

18:29 Marcos said, you have no dispute except that China is claiming Philippine territory or something

18:34 to that effect. - Yeah, because our claims are not

18:36 Philippine law. These are based on the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in Maine.

18:46 And actually, our integrity as a country was fought for by Arturo Tolentino, Estelito Mendoza,

18:53 and others to get the archipelagic doctrine. If not, waters in between islands will be

19:00 international waters. So what kind of integrity will you have?

19:06 So if we bargain away by forgetting, kalimutan muna dawang politika,

19:14 by bargaining away that, we lose our integrity as a country.

19:18 - But what's the sense of your counterparts in ASEAN? Is that something that

19:22 they're equally interested in doing with the Philippines?

19:26 - There have been expressions of interest, and I will know more after the ASEAN Defense

19:36 Ministers meet in November. - But for now, there is no scheduled

19:44 joint sales? - Right now, there are no scheduled

19:50 joint sales except, of course, when the time is right. And there are patrols, of course,

19:58 with the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea.

20:02 - And what is the Philippine position? How far would the Philippines would like for this joint

20:07 patrolling to... Where could it go? How far can it... - These are just enforcement demonstrations

20:17 of international law. And this is not a main effort. - This is not a direct reaction to what's

20:25 going on with China, as you say? - No, it's not a direct reaction to what

20:30 China is doing, but in a sense, it is. Because we're not provoking China. To me, a provocation

20:43 of China is when we go and fish within their 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone.

20:52 When we encroach on their territory, that is a provocation. But when we sail anywhere within

21:00 their 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone and our other territorial claims,

21:06 no one can say it is a provocation. And it is a falsity. And to me,

21:12 it goes against our national interest to say that it is a provocation. The only time we provoke

21:23 China, theoretically, is if we go off Hainan Island or Hong Kong and try to fish there.

21:28 - Fish there, yeah. - Then let's see what will happen

21:29 to anybody who does that. - Do you see any other legal remedy?

21:35 I mean, you're a lawyer, a top-notcher at that. Do you see any other possible legal avenue that

21:44 we can take? - No, the legal must be always in tandem with the... - With the ability to enforce it?

21:54 - Not only that. With diplomacy. So to get a chorus of like-minded. And you want an international

22:03 voice for it that resonates really, really strongly. And then we can find a diplomatic

22:11 solution that will protect our interests. Right now, a diplomatic solution will probably be one-sided.

22:20 - Yeah, I can imagine. You mentioned that you're currently drafting a new,

22:24 you say a roadmap or a national defense strategy. How much did the China situation influence that?

22:32 Because I know even decades before, the Philippines has been talking about building

22:36 up a credible minimum defense, right? And that's been, you know, AFP modernization has always been

22:42 there even before these flashpoints became main use. - The China situation has influenced it

22:47 greatly in terms of the urgency of the need to, as much as possible, without sacrificing

22:54 interoperability, sustainability, and quality, fast track the process. - Okay. Does that mean

22:59 favoring maybe more naval assets over land-based assets? - Definitely more assets in the maritime

23:07 and the aerial domain, without forgetting our terrestrial capabilities. This goes hand in hand

23:18 too. But more also on sustainability, like having more strategic bases, more facilities to upgrade,

23:27 to support our growing fleet of ships, vehicles. Maintenance has always been a problem.

23:38 Operating expenses have always been a problem. So, we have to plan financially for the life cycle

23:46 costs of each and every item of equipment we get. At the same time, we have to upgrade our skills

23:53 and not our defense paradigms and our schooling for our officers, to me, is not in a direction which

24:02 I feel comfortable with. Because it's doctrinaire. And right now, you're fighting

24:08 asymmetrically. You can't be doctrinaire. So, we have to send our people to multidisciplinary

24:15 educational institutions all over the world to build up their skills and networking.

24:22 Do you think there's a need to maybe establish, maybe, I think it was Senate President Zubidi was

24:29 at one time suggesting maybe a naval academy or something like that to maybe reinforce that new,

24:34 I suppose, appreciation for maritime concerns? Is that something that... - I think it will come

24:40 maybe sooner. It's not in the horizon right now because even our, as you know, even our local

24:52 institutions of higher learning have problems with their ratings and rankings. So, I'd rather

24:59 send people to established educational institutions where they can get trained.

25:05 Speaking of that, there were some reactions, at least from some lawmakers, about doing those

25:13 exchanges, particularly with China. Is that a concern? Because I thought it was kind of

25:19 an unfair conclusion to make just because someone went to China, then they become

25:25 all of a sudden pro-China. But I can see some merit also of our officers going there and maybe

25:32 understanding them and maybe establishing relationships that may prove useful in the future.

25:38 No, I'm open to the idea, but not really right now. We have to properly vet and choose the

25:44 officers that will go there. But for cadets in their formative stage, probably not right now.

25:49 So, are you ramping up? I know we have those relationships with West Point and

25:57 the Naval Academy in New York. Is that something that's going to be ramped up? Are you going to

26:01 have more countries do more of those exchanges? - We do a lot already.

26:05 Yes, that's what I mean. - We do a lot already, but for me,

26:07 I think the focus right now would be higher learning and specialization.

26:12 I see. And a few weeks ago, there was talk about the possibility of us getting some

26:22 submarines from France. I know how much of that has progressed beyond just initial discussions.

26:28 Right now, the Navy is reviewing its needs based on my guidance. And perhaps in the future,

26:36 that will be there, but not probably in this horizon. Not in this specific package

26:43 that we seek to acquire. - Right. What about other assets?

26:48 What's in the near future? More jets?

26:56 Yes, but let's not buy just one, 12 planes won't make a difference.

27:04 So, if we buy a set of capabilities, it must make a difference in terms of quantity.

27:12 Because buying a subset of a set will not move the needle.

27:21 As you were asking, more aerial assets, more offshore patrol vessels,

27:32 so that we can go further. Right now, I think that's why we have to also converge with the

27:39 Philippine Coast Guard, because they're supposed to guard the littoral side.

27:43 Right. - And we're more offshore.

27:46 But of course, it's flexible because the Philippines has islands and features.

27:52 Especially under the regime of islands theory, where the Coast Guard can operate.

28:00 And the Coast Guard is a recipient also of equipment from other governments.

28:05 So, we have to converge there. But of course, the Navy has to project

28:09 in order to prevent anybody from disrupting peaceful

28:23 exploitation of the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone by Filipinos and authorized

28:30 partners of the Philippine government. - So, is there going to be an announcement

28:35 soon from your office about... - Once we draft it, then...

28:38 - Is there a budget already or is it, are you looking at 2024 to make an announcement?

28:43 - No, no, no. - This year?

28:45 - Yeah, it's for planning purposes, because we are asking for a re-horizoning already.

28:49 - Oh, wow. - And then when we come up,

28:51 the president will sign it and sign off on the re-horizoning. And then that becomes our platform.

28:57 - Those interests from the Western countries you mentioned...

29:01 - Not only Western, not even Asian countries are interested, like Korea and Japan.

29:05 - Have those translated into maybe a willingness to sell us more equipment,

29:12 transfer more technology? - Transfer more technology

29:14 and capabilities. For example, in EDGA that you wanted to ask me earlier, that's the trade-off.

29:20 I'll make sure the Philippine interests are protected by getting capabilities in exchange for

29:26 the logistical capabilities that we allow the United States to do.

29:32 - Is there going to be a major announcement soon? Because a lot of the comments I've been hearing

29:36 is that maybe the Philippines is not getting what it deserves, given what it has offered.

29:43 - The fact... - Is that a fair

29:44 criticism you think? - Not really. Not really,

29:47 because it's also a question of supporting the assets that are transferred to us. However,

29:54 in terms of major announcements, one of the most important things is operational security and

30:01 secrecy. - Okay.

30:02 You don't want it on the front page. - That is one of the issues that we are

30:07 addressing within the armed forces, particularly in this regime of fake news. So, as a condition

30:16 for increased capabilities, a lot of countries demand operational security and secrecy.

30:21 - How do we balance the need to upgrade, modernize? There are so many other national

30:28 priorities. As you know, you worked on them as a lawmaker. There's education, there's public

30:34 health, there's infrastructure. How do we balance that we don't fall short of the other expectations

30:43 that we need? We also need a strong economy, we need a well-educated people, but of course,

30:49 there's no denying that we also need a strong military. - Right now, we're spending about...

30:54 Estimates go from 0.98 to about 1.1% of GDP on defense. Constitutionally, you're not allowed to

31:04 overtake education spending. So, that's really not a lot. And there's synergy between defense

31:13 spending and investor confidence. And there is a paper that I've seen, I don't recall right now,

31:21 or maybe an opinion, an op-ed, maybe in your publication that defense spending translates to

31:30 higher FDI inflows. - Well, I was thinking about that

31:35 submarine. I know when India was looking at the French subs, there was a deal for the manufacturing

31:40 of those submarines in India itself. - So, a lot of the Horizon packages that we're looking for

31:48 are... - That economic component?

31:53 - Right, the business case, where we can also export these technologies and platforms, hopefully,

32:00 to other countries. But the main bulk of the cost that we need to bear is that we need to realize,

32:08 for example, there are eight platforms that are coming next year from South Korea,

32:14 naval platforms. We need funds to properly use these things. It's not just a question of buying,

32:22 and some of them have a full tank capacity of 800,000 to 1 million liters of diesel.

32:28 - So, you need a lot of fuel. - Right, but this is a sunk cost,

32:36 and I view this as a capital investment. - Okay. What about the personnel? You're

32:43 mentioning new platforms coming in, new priority areas. Is the Defense Department looking at

32:51 maybe expanding its personnel? - Oh, definitely.

32:54 - How many more soldiers do we do? - In terms of the armed forces, we're fine.

33:00 - We're fine, okay. - We're fine. We have 160,000 now.

33:05 - Okay. - That will not grow significantly,

33:07 unlike the police, where you need to maintain a population-to-police ratio.

33:12 - I see. - We're fine, and technology can substitute

33:17 for a lot of the personnel requirements. - I see.

33:20 - So, we're fine. But the Department of Defense properties...

33:24 - You're talking about the one managing the... - Yes, we need a big overhaul.

33:28 - The administration, yeah. - Right. A big overhaul on the structure

33:32 and the organization. - I heard you say that. How many more people

33:35 do we need, do you think? - I think we need at least about 600 to 1,000.

33:39 - Wow. - Because we're managing a stakeholder base

33:41 of about a million. - Right.

33:42 - And assets under management, probably of 250 to 300 billion.

33:48 - Wow. So, how long will it take for you to... - By the end of the year, I'll file a bill.

33:53 - Really? Okay. So, the bill will be filed, and how long do you think it will take to...

33:58 - They promised, the Congress promised that they would act on it quickly.

34:03 - Yeah. - And it's also a staffing and

34:07 resource management problem, but I feel it's not done now.

34:12 - Right. - Then we will continue to have

34:15 overworked employees and servants, rather. - Yeah.

34:23 - Fellow workers, government workers, public servants. And I think the skills that we need

34:31 may not fall under the conventional civil service paradigm.

34:35 - Yeah, it has to be a new... - Oh, yeah.

34:37 - Okay. - And if the government cannot create

34:41 such a system, then we're way, way, way behind. - Let me just go quickly to the uniform personnel.

34:51 I mean, how's morale now? - Very high.

34:53 - A lot of talk about the pension issue. Has that been resolved?

34:56 - Insofar as I'm concerned, it has been resolved. - So, it hasn't affected...

35:00 - No. - No earlier time,

35:04 it's because of, I suppose, bad feelings or anything like that?

35:07 - No. - I see.

35:08 - And I think that issue has already been resolved. - Okay.

35:15 - However, in the long run, as with any organization, when passions perhaps have subsided,

35:21 we really have to take a good look. But that being said, there is a provision there where we have to

35:28 create a retirement trust fund. And right now, we are very busy and we thank the Office of the

35:35 Solicitor General for augmenting us with lawyers. We are very busy in cleaning up land titles,

35:42 real estate assets of the armed forces, where we can put in this trust fund as capital to be

35:51 managed by the GSIS, perhaps, because the new entrants are going to have to contribute.

35:58 So, it will add up and hopefully when it matures, it reduces the government pension burden.

36:07 - Okay. And with regard to capabilities, I know you mentioned this that in your

36:14 administration staff, you need out of the box kind of thinking there, but cyber security,

36:20 cyber defense, what's our state of preparedness on that front?

36:25 - Well, frankly, we're quite resilient. However, this resilience compromises our ability

36:37 to go into the advanced stage and this resilience sacrifices efficiency in the sense that we need

36:46 a lot more paper and a lot more people. So, the capabilities that we need, particularly in the

36:58 department proper to manage a host of, let's not forget the department is not focused only on

37:06 the armed forces, but we're running a hospital, we're running an arsenal, we're taking care of

37:14 veterans and civil defense, which is a big headache of any country, is under the department too.

37:22 So, you need people with the requisite skills, which we can grow, we can develop in time if

37:35 you start now, in order to have, to translate the needs of these agencies into bankable, let's say,

37:48 I don't know how to use the government term for bankable things and get the proper resources.

37:54 On the other hand, we have also the ability, we have to have the ability to negotiate high-level

38:00 contracts because normally contracts should not be, we really have to develop that skill.

38:08 Right now, I have really a feeling because the OSG is overworked and other departments are

38:14 overworked, we need to outsource really the negotiation in terms of lawyering of these

38:19 contracts. Because we lose money if contracts are poorly drafted.

38:26 Yeah, I see. I see.

38:28 At the end of the day, it's the black and white.

38:32 Right.

38:32 And as a contract lawyer, which I'm not, you have to foresee all the possible angles and even,

38:42 let's say, fluctuations in foreign exchange and possible sanctioning of currencies

38:48 in order to ensure that we don't get the raw end of the bargain.

38:56 Sure. I'm getting a signal that I need to wrap up, but I can circle back to the West

39:01 Philippines Sea if you don't mind. There have been some people who've been saying that maybe

39:05 we should start invoking the mutual defense treaty because of these skirmishes between our fishermen

39:11 and the Chinese Coast Guard. Do you think that's alarmist or that's appropriate? What's your view?

39:16 That's inappropriate. I think it's not appropriate at all.

39:19 Because the MDT says, basically the MDT is a wartime endeavor or the imminence of war.

39:30 I view the MDT because it says that an attack on any public vessel is an event which can be

39:40 subject to the MDT, but the MDT must be viewed in the greater context of entering into an armed

39:47 conflict, which we do not want. Do you think it will ever be like what Vietnam did?

39:54 People say that we know we should do what Vietnam did, but I seem to remember the Vietnam

39:58 soldiers died when they tried to do that. No, they have a more robust, they had a more robust

40:05 armed force. They really continue to spend on defense, spending galore. And not only in Vietnam,

40:14 but Malaysia and Indonesia continue to spend. And last, last question. When they order jets,

40:20 it's 70, 80, 90. Which I want to change. We can financially leverage that for long, long periods.

40:30 Yeah, there's a way if you want to. Last question. I know we've been focused on China, but

40:34 I'm reminded that our problems are not only with China, but also with Vietnam and other Southeast

40:43 Asian countries. How are we on that front? Well, at least there's a status quo, which is a good

40:49 beginning, but with China, there's no status quo. That's the difference. Yes, that's the big

40:54 difference. Well, Secretary, thank you very much for your time. I really appreciate it. We wish you

40:58 good luck. I can't even imagine what your play is like these days. But with the support of the

41:05 president, it makes the job easier. And the clear direction of the president, and it's yielding

41:11 a position on a lot of issues makes the job very, very clear cut and easy.

41:16 There's no ambiguity. Thanks very much, sir. Thanks.

41:20 Okay.

41:21 Thank you.

Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr. | The Manila Times Roundtable

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