Marc Chaikin is a stock analyst and Founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics.
#1 Morning Stock Show To Get You Ready For The Stock Market Open, PreMarket Gainers, Earnings This Week, Economic Data & More!
Benzinga PreMarket Prep 8:00AM ET- 9:00AM ET BenzingaTV on YouTube.
#1 Morning Stock Show To Get You Ready For The Stock Market Open, PreMarket Gainers, Earnings This Week, Economic Data & More!
Benzinga PreMarket Prep 8:00AM ET- 9:00AM ET BenzingaTV on YouTube.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 So you've got a lot of these momentum traders,
00:01 momentum has broken.
00:03 How do you get those momentum traders back in the market
00:08 to once again, start thinking about new all-time highs?
00:11 - You've got to go through levels,
00:13 but also when you're in a situation
00:15 where everything is oversold,
00:17 I start to look at the sentiment indicators
00:19 and the CNN fear and greed index is an extreme fear.
00:23 So my point is-
00:25 - Is it though?
00:25 Like, and I challenge, I was just having an argument.
00:28 - Oh, it is.
00:29 It, and then the indicator is really a poor indicator
00:32 because I'm not feeling extreme fear out here.
00:34 I've been through extreme fear.
00:35 I've been in this market for 23 years.
00:37 Extreme fear, financial crisis.
00:39 Extreme fear, obviously when we had the COVID shutdowns,
00:43 those are extreme fears.
00:45 The VIX is at 18.
00:47 I mean, this is an extreme fear.
00:49 - Well, it's extreme fear-
00:50 - VIX at 27.30, that's-
00:51 - Extreme fear in the bond market, Dennis, that's-
00:54 - I'm just saying like, even looking at that though,
00:57 like with equities holding up as well,
00:58 this doesn't feel like it's an extreme fear market.
01:01 I still hear half the analysts coming on CNBC
01:04 talking about a soft landing.
01:06 I mean, once, so I'm just challenging
01:08 how they're calculating that
01:09 because we don't know what goes into the CNN metrics
01:12 to figure out-
01:13 - Yeah, we do.
01:13 No, we do.
01:14 It's- - Well, what is it?
01:15 - It's published.
01:16 Oh, it's advanced decline lines, new highs,
01:18 it's bonds versus stocks.
01:20 It's very transparent.
01:23 - I'll say right now, it's wrong.
01:26 We are not in extreme fears.
01:27 I've traded and day traded this market,
01:29 made millions of trades,
01:30 not like a million dollars worth of trade,
01:32 I've made millions of physical trades in this market.
01:35 This market is not an extreme fear market right now.
01:38 It's not even close.
01:39 So that CNN indicator, whatever they're putting in there,
01:42 there, it's just not right.
01:45 - So the reason I bring up a sentiment indicator,
01:48 which I don't normally rely on,
01:50 is you're entering this seasonal period
01:52 where markets are expected to bottom.
01:57 October 4th through the 7th is my best guess.
02:01 You have broken the lower volatility bands.
02:04 You had a very heavy volume day in the S&P.
02:07 So my overall thing is, if you're a trader, sure,
02:10 sit on your hands and let the market come to you.
02:13 If you're an investor, don't give up your core holding.
02:17 So you gotta always know who your audience is.
02:20 So for me, if you're an investor and you have some cash,
02:24 look for opportunities.
02:26 They still exist in the construction stocks like Fix and EME
02:30 and some of the smaller cap names.
02:32 There are some tech stocks like Nutanix
02:35 that have popped up on my radar screen,
02:38 an old favorite that's acting very well.
02:41 So there are special names that you can buy
02:44 if you're talking about the big indices, sure.
02:47 But one thing to notice is the equal weighted S&P
02:51 broke down a long time ago.
02:54 It's leading the cap weighted or normal S&P by about a month.
02:59 So that does speak to what you're experiencing.
03:05 It's just that traders have left the market.
03:08 The bids are out, are gone.
03:11 But that's also a level of fear that is not apparent
03:16 if you're just looking at the S&P 500,
03:18 but the equal weighted is really doggy.