Beijing quite 'consistent' in its Taiwan strategy, offering 'both carrots and sticks'
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00:00 Beijing has summoned the German ambassador to China after the foreign minister Annalena Baerbock
00:04 called President Xi Jinping a dictator, in this the latest flare-up of tensions between the two
00:10 countries. Beijing and Berlin ties are more and more strained as the German government
00:15 takes a tougher stance on issues such as human rights and Taiwan. This comes as China sent war
00:22 planes into the airspace around Taiwan this weekend. Meanwhile, China's foreign minister
00:27 Wang Yi is in Moscow for what's been described as security talks. Vladimir Putin of course still
00:33 seeking outright Chinese backing for his war on Ukraine. Let's get the broader analysis and bring
00:40 in Song Guan-Zhou Yiliu, who is a fellow for international political economy at the Council
00:44 on Foreign Relations. Zhou is also author of the book Sovereign Funds, how the Communist Party of
00:50 China finances its global ambitions. Zhou, thank you so much for being with us. Taiwan, an issue
00:55 that is clearly placing Beijing in a tight spot right now. Yes, thank you Mark for having me.
01:05 You're absolutely right. Taiwan is a hot spot issue for China and for China's relationship
01:12 with the United States. And in the current situation, especially following Wang Yi's meeting
01:18 with Jake Sullivan, although both sides emphasized that this is a candid, constructive meeting,
01:26 China did emphasize that Taiwan is the absolute red line that the United States or any other
01:34 country cannot surpass. So from that perspective, this military exercise is an attempt of Beijing
01:41 to sort of internalize Taiwan street as part of mainland Taiwan strategy. And then at the same
01:48 time, we also need to keep this in mind that Beijing has also been offering carrots last week,
01:55 which is to offer a new coherent development plan between Fujian province that is just across the
02:02 street from Taiwan, and even allowing Taiwan younger generation to use a very similar national
02:09 ID card, the same as mainland people. So the broad stroke is that Beijing has been offering both
02:16 carrots and sticks and is kind of consistent with Beijing's Taiwan strategy. And this is incredibly
02:24 clear the way you express it, Zoe, as always. I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of people
02:29 who would be in Taiwan looking up at the sky and seeing so many warplanes from the mainland
02:37 circling around the island. And I'm wondering what is China actually trying to achieve through
02:41 this military harassment, which is how many people see it? Right. Taiwan's defense ministry
02:47 people definitely use the term, the word harassment. But there are two ways that I
02:53 interpreted. One is the timing. It happened over the weekend when Jake Sullivan was meeting with
02:59 Wang Yi and Chinese foreign ministry also emphasized the issue of Taiwan being raised
03:05 and being discussed during the meeting. And at the same time, Taiwan also has an election coming.
03:11 The pro-independent DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, perhaps if the pro-independence
03:19 presidential candidate gets elected, that is going to further raise the tension.
03:24 So from that perspective, I think this increased frequency of the mainland to conduct military
03:32 exercise, flying warplanes is a part of a warning. And at this time, we're speaking about Taiwan,
03:40 but the other side of the coin perhaps in many ways is what's happening between Beijing and
03:45 Moscow with Wang Yi, the foreign secretary of China, currently in Russia for what have been
03:51 described as strategic security consultations. What does that actually mean? Because behind that,
03:57 people might be suspecting that this is China getting involved deeply in what's happening
04:02 in Ukraine. Can you clarify what you think is going on? Right. So Mark, you're right. This is
04:08 the so-called strategic security consultation meeting between China and Moscow. And this is
04:14 not the first one. This is the 18th of this kind of meeting. So in a normal, in any other year,
04:22 this kind of meeting perhaps would not have been picked up by media. However, this time is
04:27 interesting and different in the sense that, first of all, it happens again after Russia's war
04:34 against Ukraine, while the West has been saying that this is Putin's invasion of Ukraine. And so
04:39 far, China has not declared that as an invasion. And then secondly, there is a possibility of
04:48 President Putin visiting China for the Belt and Road Forum, which would be the third one if he
04:54 goes. That would be the third one that he visits. And this is actually very important because,
05:02 first of all, this is going to be his first in-person visit to Beijing after the Olympics.
05:07 It would also be the very first trip that he made to Beijing after the ICC, International Criminal
05:13 Court issued a warrant against Putin. While China is not a member of the ICC, it put this in a very
05:22 delicate situation. Indeed, very delicate because effectively this is China aligning itself with
05:27 someone who's a wanted war criminal. This is the issue, isn't it? And it's worth pointing out the
05:30 US is saying that China has been aiding Russia both economically and supplying key technology
05:37 since Putin decided to invade Ukraine. So China, as you say, in a very delicate situation.
05:43 Absolutely. While from the US perspective, China's lack of condemnation, as well as China's
05:53 continuing buying Russian energy has become a, from a US perspective, that is China's support
06:02 to Russia. While the Chinese government, as well as Chinese speaks people, have declined to comment
06:10 on China's support and even denied China's support. So far, there is no material evidence
06:17 suggesting that China has been helping Russia to bypass Western sanctions. But if you look at the
06:22 Chinese bank's asset, actually not just the Russians increase its foreign exchange reserves,
06:30 but the Chinese investment as well as the Chinese bank's holding of Russian assets actually
06:35 increased. Zongguan Zhouyiliu of the Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you as ever for joining
06:40 us here on France 24. We appreciate your time as always and your very frank analysis of the
06:45 situation. Zhouyiliu, thank you very much indeed. Thank you very much for having me.
06:49 You're very welcome. We'll watch your course for all developments on the situation here at France
06:53 24. And that was Zongguan Zhouyiliu of the Council on Foreign Relations.