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00:00 And about the analysis of the performance of this session of the three in the Egyptian market, joining us from Cairo, Mr. Ihab Saeed, a member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board.
00:09 Welcome. Mr. Ihab, I will start with your analysis and your view of the profits generated for the second session so far today on the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
00:20 We reached 19,600 on Sunday and lost about 500 points in both sessions.
00:32 To what extent do you consider that the profit generated this time was a little strong?
00:36 In the name of God, the most merciful, the most merciful. It is natural, of course. After we exceeded the highest level of 18,400, and the indicator, to some extent, I will not say a very fast pace, but it rose more than a session after another.
00:52 And even when the profit generated, it was an average session, but it always returned to the same level until we reached 20,000 points and the profit generating process began to appear, even as a psychological barrier.
01:06 But in fact, the two sessions yesterday and today, as you said, until some negative indicators began to appear, specifically the momentum indicators.
01:18 So, to some extent, we can say that if the market does not continue to rise or cannot exceed the last peak, which is 19,800, it is due to the temporary momentum.
01:31 The problem is that there are no support levels because the rise came after 18,400 and went directly to 20,000.
01:41 Therefore, the first support level is 18,400, which is a little far. But in general, the market is still weak and still brings new historical levels.
01:50 Maybe it is just a little worried, as I said, about the momentum indicators that began to appear after the weak indicators, plus the International Trade Bank, which is of course the owner of the largest percentage of weight and the main influence in the indicator, did not exceed its highest levels, which is 60 pounds.
02:07 So, all this is to some extent a little worried about the 30-point indicator.
02:12 But the 70-point indicator, for example, is that there are many stocks that appeared briefly during the last period or did not appear at all.
02:22 Even the real highs are almost not mentioned compared to, for example, the International Trade Bank.
02:29 But in general, I think that as soon as the short-term correctional movement that we are going through ends, both indicators will rise again.
02:39 You mentioned, of course, the international trade, and we always look at the share that controls the third-party ratio on EGX30.
02:46 But I notice that the market has also been busy with Bilton for a long time and is giving active volume.
02:52 But it is also one of the stocks that leads the operations of the huge profit generation in this way. How do you explain this behavior, Mr. Ihab?
02:59 In fact, of course, I agree with you completely because after the issue of the short-term correctional movement, I may have talked about it more than once here in the past weeks,
03:11 and I said that it is not healthy for the market at all to be a stock that, in some days, reaches half the market and a third of the market.
03:19 The values of its transactions exceed a third of the overall values of the market transactions.
03:24 This means that most of the liquidity, or almost all of the liquidity, is directed to this share.
03:29 So I said at the time that as soon as any correction happens, and this must happen, because any share in the world or any market is exposed to the short-term profit generation.
03:38 So as soon as this happens, we will see that the regression is affected by a very large percentage.
03:45 And it is very natural, in fact, I may have written on my page a few days ago, what indicates the matter of this Bilton,
03:51 and I said that the shares that have a lot of talk about them are signs of the profit generation.
03:58 And indeed, we see the share here now, it is regressing, as we see, it closed today 3.7, and in fact, it is also regressing with a strange momentum.
04:09 It is regressing very slowly, it does not go down to make a correction and then come back again.
04:15 No, as they say, it gradually takes people down.
04:19 So this is the problem.
04:21 But I also believe that with the decline that occurred from 33 or 35 directly to 3.6 or 3.7,
04:29 that there may be a temporary regression to 13 or 15, but we must always learn,
04:34 people always learn that when the talk is very much, when the opinions are collective on a share or a market,
04:40 this is always a sign that all the liquidity has entered this market or this share, and therefore this is the time of the profit generation.
04:47 Okay, how many shares do you control today on the profit generation wave?
04:51 I mean, I counted from a few sessions that recorded the highs and led the indicators,
04:56 and it seems that the indicators are not talking about the regression, let's talk about the profit generation,
05:01 and the profit is approximately between 6 to 7 shares.
05:04 Will we remain only within these shares, Mr. Ihab?
05:08 It is natural, because all the liquidity is directed to these shares at the moment.
05:13 I mean, if we talked about the commercial bank, the Hermes financial group, New Egypt, Bilton,
05:17 the Eastern, the smoke, of course, all this, all the liquidity is focused on these few shares.
05:23 So it is very natural that they are the ones who support the rise of the indicators, as we saw in the past few days,
05:30 and they are also the ones who will be affected by the profit generation process, as we saw today and yesterday.
05:34 But today, the Eastern, the smoke, just to be clear, the Eastern, the smoke, today, the opposite direction, it rose.
05:41 And I was surprised that after the deal, after the deal, a foreign investor entered,
05:45 I don't know why it became profitable, even though the market was still in the rise.
05:50 I mean, your interpretation of the reaction of the shareholder to the share at that time, what is it?
05:55 It is true, but the share is just, I mean, maybe we even talked about it here at the time of the deal,
06:03 and the talk that was present at the time, and we said that the share is just not going to exceed 21.70,
06:09 whether the deal was completed or not, or a new share was proposed, because there was thinking about a new share at the beginning of the year,
06:16 if this deal had not been completed, or an additional share from the company.
06:20 So, I said at the time that the share would break 21.70, we will see that there will be a surge in the share price and rise.
06:26 And as we saw now, it is close to 24 pounds, and it achieves new levels.
06:31 But what I want to tell you is that this is also one of the most important reasons that pushed the market to rise, and maybe one of the most.
06:38 So, what supports this share is the process that was carried out, or the deal that was carried out.
06:44 And the company, of course, does not need us to talk about it. I mean, this is a monopolistic company,
06:50 and maybe the largest tobacco company in the whole region, and one of the largest companies in the world.
06:54 So, it is very natural that it performs positively.
06:57 Mr. Diab, let me talk about a category, and allow me to use this expression, not the channel, I adopt it.
07:04 What do you hunt? I mean, I know that this company will sell a strategic share,
07:09 and a very interested investor will come from abroad, and will show a higher price than the market price.
07:16 And therefore, if I bought it today and sold it at the price that will be sold, I will benefit.
07:22 The hunters today will also have their chance.
07:24 And we are really talking, at least we have three companies that saw a share, thank God,
07:30 I mean, Aris was good to apply for it.
07:33 Let's talk about this receipt of shares, which really, there are people who only have the goal of waiting for an excellent offer to come and sell it.
07:42 More than a share makes its growth and makes distribution in the market.
07:46 In fact, there are more than one company, I mean, more than one company,
07:52 there is also talk of implementing some deals on it, or thinking about acquisitions.
07:57 But there is no doubt that this is the best thing that can happen to hold any share in the world.
08:03 I mean, all people, as long as they live in the financial markets or in the financial markets,
08:09 dream of buying a share and having a deal with it at a much higher price.
08:13 So this is everyone's dream, as they say.
08:16 But the issue of determining which company will get this thing, is not an easy issue.
08:22 I mean, insider information is not easy to get.
08:27 Unless the matter is announced to the public, and then the share may be affected in response to this announcement,
08:34 and then the look is over.
08:36 But in general, there are a lot of shares in the Egyptian market.
08:41 I imagine that there will be a lot of buying offers in the coming period,
08:46 because we completely agree that the prices in Egypt are very low,
08:51 and the economic crisis is what has put pressure on most of these shares in pricing.
08:57 And so, as soon as the currency problem is solved,
09:00 in the coming months, we imagine that there will be a review of the entire market,
09:05 and we will see completely different prices, especially in shares like the real estate sector, for example,
09:09 the services sector, a lot of shares.
09:11 Thank you for your time and analysis, our guest from Cairo, Mr. Ehab Saeed.
09:15 Thank you.
09:16 And you are a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board.
09:18 [BLANK_AUDIO]