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Transcript
00:00 Well, the two leaders spoke briefly to journalists before going into private talks.
00:05 Here's a little of what was said there.
00:14 Today everyone is looking at the grain corridor issue in Turkey-Russia relations.
00:20 They're waiting to see what will come out today regarding the grain corridor.
00:26 I believe that the message we give the world in a press conference after our meeting will
00:30 be very important, especially for underdeveloped African countries.
00:42 We have a lot to talk about from the point of view of ensuring security in the region.
00:48 Of course, we will not ignore the issues related to the Ukrainian crisis.
00:54 I know that you intend to raise questions about the grain deal.
00:58 We are open to negotiations on this issue.
01:03 Well, listening to that brief address was Oliver Fary from our foreign desk, and he's
01:09 with me now.
01:10 Oliver, what do you think we should expect to come out of this meeting today?
01:14 Well, the hope is that the grain deal that was suspended six weeks ago will be kick-started
01:18 once again.
01:19 This is a lifeline for countries outside of the conflict, particularly developing ones.
01:25 It managed to keep grain prices low even as the war continued in Ukraine, but Russia was
01:31 not happy with this.
01:33 Moscow thought that it got a raw deal, that commitments made by other parties were not
01:37 being met.
01:38 Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey have positioned themselves as brokers here.
01:43 Erdogan has not always had the coziest ties with Vladimir Putin, particularly during the
01:47 early days of the Syrian civil war, when they were on different sides of the divide.
01:52 But things have warmed up considerably, and Turkey, even though it's a NATO member, has
01:56 not completely severed its ties with Russia since the latter's invasion of Ukraine.
02:01 There has been trade between the two countries continuing, including some that skirted Western
02:06 sanctions on Russia, Turkey being used as a staging point for trade from third countries
02:12 until Ankara put a stop to it earlier this year.
02:15 Now, UN Secretary General Antony Guterres sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
02:21 what he called a series of concrete proposals to get the grain deal up and running.
02:25 But Moscow says that they don't go far enough.
02:29 Turkey is being quite understanding.
02:31 It says that it's dispatched Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for talks ahead of today's meeting.
02:38 Russia wants greater commitments on matters such as financing and insurance that will
02:43 allow its own grain and also fertilizer exports, which are not subject to sanctions, to continue.
02:49 But will Vladimir Putin be willing to restart the deal?
02:52 Because he's got his own reasons for maybe dragging his feet on it as well.
02:57 His Russian forces have been targeting Ukrainian grain ports overnight with drone attacks.
03:03 So the Russian president is very conscious of the leverage that he might have here.
03:07 And you mentioned that you touched on one of the justifications that Vladimir Putin
03:12 has for pulling out of that deal.
03:15 He's complained that Russia has been sort of effectively shut out of grain trade around
03:20 the world since the war in Ukraine broke out.
03:23 Is there any truth to what he says?
03:25 Well, it hasn't prevented Moscow from shipping record amounts of grain last year because
03:29 there have been countries that have stepped in to fill the gaps, such as China and India,
03:35 which have been buying quite a lot of grain.
03:37 Now that said, there is some truth to Russia's complaints.
03:41 Agricultural exports such as grain and fertilizer from Russia may not be subject to sanctions,
03:45 but paying for those exports is a complicated matter for third-party countries because of
03:50 the sanctions on Russian banks.
03:52 And Moscow wants the state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank to be exempted from these sanctions to
03:57 ease the process of paying for these grain deals.
04:00 Now they will obviously want clarity on the message sent to third parties, many of whom
04:05 are very, very nervous and spooked, so to speak, of violating sanctions, even if in
04:10 this specific case it is permitted.
04:13 Now Russia has also tried to use grain as a wedge issue in shoring up support in the
04:19 global south.
04:20 We've seen often over the last 18 months that impressions of Russia in developing countries
04:26 are very different from how they are in the West.
04:28 And Moscow gets a sympathetic air in quite a lot of foreign capitals, particularly in
04:33 Africa.
04:34 The spectre of rising food prices is something that makes a lot of governments nervous, and
04:38 Russia knows this, and this is what Recep Tayyip Erdogan also alluded to earlier on
04:43 as well.
04:44 So the grain deal can be a very, very useful diplomatic tool for Moscow, but it can also
04:48 cut both ways.
04:49 Oliver Farrie, thank you very much indeed for that.

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