Taking a look at activity in the tropics right now, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains what forecasters are keeping an eye on for the next two weeks.
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00:00 Yeah, quite a flurry of activity in the Atlantic.
00:04 There are a number of systems that we're tracking here.
00:07 You have tropical rainstorm, Medallia.
00:09 You have Franklin.
00:10 You have Jose.
00:11 You have Gert.
00:12 You have three tropical waves.
00:13 Also, two in the Caribbean I don't think will develop.
00:16 We'll keep an eye on this tropical wave around, oh, about 20, 25 degrees west here.
00:20 This may become a tropical storm as well, but it's not heading toward the United States.
00:25 Here's the one that I think you have to keep an eye on.
00:27 It'll be coming off Africa as we go through tonight here.
00:31 There it is.
00:32 Now, we believe that it's going to be strengthening into a hurricane next week, probably mid-to-late
00:37 next week as it continues to move off to the west.
00:40 How could you make such a bold and sassy statement like that this far out?
00:43 Well, when you look at the Atlantic where it's going, dry air is going to be diminishing
00:48 and there's also going to be less wind shear.
00:50 You know the waters are warm, so that's why we think this is going to develop.
00:53 Now, it won't approach the Lesser Antilles until Friday and the Saturday, and U.S. impacts
00:58 cannot be ruled out with this.
00:59 Can't be ruled out, we're not sure, but we'll say this.
01:02 I don't think this would have any impact until the 14th or 15th of September, and I think
01:07 until this system heads west, I don't think we're looking at any impacts along the U.S.
01:13 coast, at least through September 10th.
01:15 Then we'll track this system.
01:16 Now, it's early on in the game, but here's kind of some scenarios for you.
01:21 As that storm develops, there are two paths.
01:23 If it takes more of a northern track, let's say north of 2016 in the Atlantic, I think
01:27 odds favor it, favor it staying east of the United States, because I think there's going
01:32 to be a dip in the jet stream off the east coast during the 12th, 13th, 14th of September
01:36 that would stir it out to sea.
01:38 But if it stays farther south and gets into the Caribbean, that's where I think, well,
01:42 conditions or at least a probability of U.S. impacts increases a little bit.
01:47 We're way ahead of the game on this, we're sounding the alert, and we'll continue to
01:51 track this right in the next week.
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