'Serious breakthrough': Ukraine advancing on southern front amid growing 'pressure from the West'
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00:00 Tomorrow, let's cross to Vienna.
00:01 Valina Chakarova is the founder of the geopolitics consultancy, FACE.
00:06 Thank you for being with us here on France 24.
00:10 Thank you very much.
00:12 This advance, it's a village, a few more hamlets this Tuesday.
00:19 How much should we make of it?
00:21 Well, we should be very much paying attention to what's going on right now, because this
00:28 is opening up the terrain for the shortest way towards Melitopol.
00:33 And this is where Ukraine will be now focusing a lot of its forces.
00:38 We should be also mindful of the fact that there are also other battles going on here.
00:44 The expectations and the pressure from the West is growing in terms of successes that
00:50 Ukraine needs to deliver.
00:52 But obviously, this, what happened yesterday, is not necessarily a game changer, but a serious
00:59 breakthrough.
01:00 Yeah.
01:01 For now, we see images of fighters trying as much as possible to stick to the roads,
01:06 but with so much of the terrain mined, how fast can they advance?
01:13 Well, first thing that we need to understand on behalf of the West is that we've lost precious
01:20 time that enabled Russia to mine most of the battlefields and to solidify and fortify the
01:27 defense line.
01:28 So also, second point is that the West has lost, or let's say, wasted a lot of precious
01:35 time to deliver what it has pledged.
01:38 So this all results now in difficulties.
01:41 Ukraine has to conduct this counteroffensive in a most efficient and most successful way.
01:48 The third important point, as we've seen from the last weeks, is again, a very, very small,
01:55 very, very slow discussion on the possible delivery of F-16.
01:59 The F-16 would be also quite needed right now.
02:05 And the fourth point is that we have to deal with the time frame due to the weather conditions.
02:12 So Ukraine will be now really going all in to try to achieve some kind of military breakthrough.
02:20 What would fighter jets change when it comes to disrupting the network of tunnels and defensive
02:25 positions that the Russians have set up?
02:28 Well, first thing is that Russia is using a lot of artillery fire.
02:35 The second point is that Ukrainian soldiers are more or less going on the battlefields
02:42 undefended.
02:43 So air fire will be certainly quite helpful in the case.
02:50 And certainly it has also a perception, a change of perception in a way that the West
02:59 keeps its promises.
03:00 Here we've been too slow, too inefficient in the way what we've actually promised to
03:05 deliver.
03:06 Earlier this month, the Pentagon nudged Kiev, saying that its war effort was spread too
03:15 thin along that 900 kilometer front line and it should concentrate its efforts more in
03:21 specific spots.
03:23 You agree with that?
03:24 And is that what we're now witnessing?
03:26 No, I don't agree with that because U.S. generals are not on the ground.
03:31 They don't have skin in the game.
03:32 They are not in the war.
03:33 It's Ukraine that is actually fighting.
03:35 It's the Ukrainian soldiers that, you know, who are fighting.
03:39 And in reality, they know best how to deal with Russia and with, you know, with enemy
03:44 forces.
03:45 That's the first thing.
03:46 The second thing is it's one thing to strategize on paper in war rooms.
03:52 It's another thing to deal with the reality.
03:53 And the reality is that as in fact, Ukrainian, you know, political leadership and the generals
04:00 were saying from first day that Russia should never, ever be underestimated, despite, you
04:06 know, the successes from previous counteroffenses.
04:09 So here, once again, we see clearly that this is the case, that Ukraine has its own idea
04:15 how to actually conduct the counteroffensives.
04:18 And that is the reason why they have decided to go that way.
04:23 And we are seeing that more and more the Ukrainians seem to be pushing by sea.
04:30 Drone attacks, missiles launched in the Black Sea.
04:34 Your thoughts on that?
04:36 Well, first and foremost, the Black Sea is the most important global chokepoint for food
04:44 commodities such as wheat.
04:46 And I argue that Russia has been trying to induce a food crisis 2.0, similar to what
04:51 happened last year.
04:53 Not only by withdrawing from the Black Sea grain initiative, but also by attacking the
04:59 ports in the Danube region, which is the alternative that the European Union facilitated for Ukrainian
05:05 agrarian products since the beginning of the war.
05:09 That's the first thing.
05:10 Second thing, of course, is about establishing the supremacy in the Black Sea region, which
05:17 is the reason why Turkey has been very, very supportive of Ukraine in the most recent months,
05:23 specifically when it comes, for instance, to drone supply.
05:28 And here, once again, we see that we go back to the discussion of F-16 and other critical
05:35 weapons systems that Ukraine can use actually to further conduct successfully counteroffensives
05:43 and how important this is.
05:46 The Turkish president, who's talked about a possible meeting with Vladimir Putin.
05:54 Your thoughts on that?
05:56 Yes.
05:58 Informations came today, obviously not confirmed yet, that President Erdogan may visit and
06:06 meet President Putin in Russia.
06:09 The Russian president is still not inclined to internationally travel, as we've seen in
06:15 the most recent months and now also with the BRICS summit.
06:21 And I argue that in this meeting, if it takes place, President Erdogan will try to once
06:28 again convince and find a compromise for the Black Sea grain initiative to be enabled again
06:36 to actually start again delivering, as otherwise we will witness significant pressure, significant
06:46 stress on the food commodity markets.
06:50 Valina Chakarova, many thanks for speaking with us from Vienna.
06:54 Thank you very much for the invitation.