It's the biggest transfer saga of 2023. Will Harry Kane leave Tottenham Hotspur and join German champions Bayern Munich? But with just one year left on his contract and Spurs embarking on a new era under Ange Postecoglu, one more year in North London might actually be perfect for both parties.
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00:00 Harry Kane has, according to a number of different outlets in both England and in Germany, agreed
00:08 a deal to join Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich this summer.
00:12 While that's a sentence that would, understandably, alarm any Tottenham fans watching, in reality
00:17 it doesn't actually mean much in this day and age.
00:20 What previously used to be called "tapping up" is now just a standard practice of agents
00:24 acting on behalf of players, getting transfers provisionally smoothed out before clubs even
00:29 begin to discuss a fee.
00:31 It's weird, yeah, and it maybe warrants a video all of its own, but it's just the way
00:34 things go these days.
00:36 In fact, in all likelihood, Harry Kane will have "agreed a deal" to join a number of
00:41 clubs this summer.
00:42 Manchester United have been frequently linked, Real Madrid have long held an interest, and
00:46 even PSG were reportedly in touch in case Kylian Mbappe's own protracted exit jumped
00:51 forward a season.
00:52 But of course, none of that matters one little bit unless Tottenham are prepared to accept
00:57 an offer for him.
00:58 But what it does tell us is that regardless of whether or not he does leave, Harry Kane
01:03 certainly wants to.
01:05 Nearly 12 years exactly since he made his Spurs debut in a Europa League match against
01:10 Hearts, his is now apparently set on departing the club.
01:14 And this leaves them with an enormous decision to make.
01:18 This is why Tottenham shouldn't sell Harry Kane this summer.
01:22 I'll keep this summation short for the sake of the Spurs fans who've heard it a hundred
01:25 times by now.
01:26 They can either allow their captain, talisman and all-time leading goalscorer to leave on
01:31 a free next summer, or they can actively pursue a sale for him now in the hope they can get
01:36 something approaching his market value.
01:39 Whether this is a decision for Daniel Levy, Ange Postacoglou or both, it's one that
01:43 needs to be made urgently.
01:44 But with neither option being even remotely appealing, how do you make it?
01:49 Well, weirdly, a quick glance at the recent history of Kane's most likely suitors gives
01:53 them a very pertinent case study.
01:56 Wind back the clock a decade and let's relive Robert Lewandowski's departure from Borussia
02:01 Dortmund.
02:02 After firing them to an astonishing league and cup double under Jurgen Klopp in 2012,
02:07 it became apparent the following season that their star player, Robert Lewandowski, wasn't
02:11 interested in extending his deal.
02:14 Such was the predictable circus that followed in German football that the club even felt
02:17 compelled to publicly inform their fans of this inevitability in 2013, over a year before
02:24 he actually departed.
02:26 In truly dramatic fashion, this statement came immediately after Dortmund thrashed Real
02:30 Madrid 4-1 in a Champions League semi-final, and just in case you're in any doubt about
02:35 how important to Dortmund he was back then, Lewandowski scored all four of the goals.
02:41 But lo, a few months later, with 12 months still to go on his deal, arch-rivals Bayern
02:46 Munich came calling, with a perfectly reasonable offer for him and what they thought was a
02:51 trump card.
02:52 "Take this transfer fee," they told Dortmund, "as he's agreed to join us anyway when
02:56 his contract's up, and you'll lose him for nothing."
03:00 Dortmund considered this proposal, and then told them to f*** off.
03:03 The reasons for this were twofold.
03:06 First of all, Bayern had already decimated this Dortmund team by activating Mario Goertz's
03:10 release clause earlier that season.
03:12 While it would have left Dortmund with an enormous transfer war chest that summer, the
03:16 idea of losing their two most important players in one window to the same team was seen as
03:21 far too damaging to both the club's ambitions and its pride.
03:25 Had another club come in with a similar offer, it's possible they would have sanctioned
03:29 the deal, but Bayern?
03:30 Oh no.
03:32 Denying them the best striker in the league, even for a year, was arguably as much of a
03:36 win for Dortmund as the Champions League final had been a loss.
03:40 But beyond this simply being an off-field point of principle, there was also an overriding
03:44 footballing reason for them cutting off their proverbial Nasr, despite their proverbial
03:48 gesicht.
03:49 The Bundesliga then, not unlike the Premier League now, was very tight at the top.
03:54 The year after winning the league, Dortmund slipped back 25 points behind Bayern into
03:58 second but were only one point ahead of a resurgent Leverkusen in third.
04:03 Both of them crucially were run close into Germany's three automatic Champions League
04:07 spots by Schalke, Frankfurt and Freiburg.
04:11 Schalke actually doing the double over them that season, with 2-1 wins both home and away.
04:16 The margin for error was already small but likely to be even smaller next season, with
04:21 the teams around them not losing their best players to the league champions.
04:26 Dortmund reasoned thusly.
04:28 One way or another they were about to enter a major period of upheaval by losing their
04:32 biggest goal threat.
04:34 Having it thrust upon them right now might give them a quick cash injection, but that
04:38 was ultimately wiped out entirely if it resulted in their dropping out of the Champions League.
04:43 Now that may well happen regardless when Lewandowski does leave, but they've at least then got
04:47 a year to start gently weaning the team off their tactical reliance upon him and bedding
04:52 in any replacements.
04:53 And that's precisely what they did.
04:56 A young Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who crucially was equally capable as a number 9 and a left-sided
05:01 attacker, arrived for a modest €30m.
05:05 Dortmund improved on last season's number of points and goals, retained their Champions
05:09 League spot, and began planning for life after Lua in the wake of a season where he'd been
05:13 the club's top scorer by 4 goals, not the staggering 17 of the year before.
05:19 Now granted Dortmund did then plummet to 7th in the next campaign as Jurgen Klopp joined
05:24 Lewandowski in leaving the club, but they bounced back to 2nd the season after, Aubameyang
05:29 hitting an incredible stride to bag 39 goals in the process, and haven't been out of the
05:34 Champions League spot since.
05:36 Basically they waived the fee they could have gotten for a want-away star and spent the
05:40 time remaining on his contract instead to succession plan far more effectively.
05:45 Tottenham's situation is obviously very different.
05:48 They've already tumbled out of the promised land of the top 4 and don't have anything
05:52 by way of a league place to try and hold onto.
05:55 But that arguably makes the Dortmund example that much more important.
05:59 Whether it's this summer or next, Tottenham are going to have to plan for life after Harry
06:04 Kane and they're almost certainly going to suffer for that loss before the green shoots
06:08 of a new era begin to bud.
06:10 If they take that hit right now, then barring a miracle of recruitment and a new manager
06:14 waving a squad-wide magic wand, they're more likely to drop below last season's 8th placed
06:20 finish than they are to close the gap to Liverpool or Newcastle while still holding off a presumably
06:25 resurgent Chelsea.
06:27 But Arj Postakoglu is a manager with well-defined, competitive and adaptable footballing philosophies
06:33 who doesn't need the most expensive players on the planet to make that work.
06:37 What modest business he does do this summer will almost certainly improve the team, make
06:42 them harder to beat and reduce the reliance on Kane to contribute such a staggering proportion
06:47 of their goals, scoring or assisting nearly half of them last season.
06:51 Thus Tottenham, with Kane in the team next season, will improve and any team with a 30-goaler
06:57 season striker in it will always be in the conversation for a top-four finish.
07:01 It's a big ask at this stage, sure, but Spurs, playing without the burden of any European
07:06 football next season, will have a chance of getting back to that level if they hold onto
07:11 their captain this summer.
07:13 Without him, though, it's virtually impossible.
07:16 The reported £80m+ that's sitting on the table to let him leave now will offset last
07:21 season's failures, sure, and make a potential repeat of that disappointment this season
07:25 taste less bitter on the way down, but they need to apply the Dortmund logic here.
07:30 One way or another, they're about to enter a major period of upheaval as they lose their
07:34 biggest goal threat.
07:36 Having it thrust upon them right now might give them a quick cash injection, but it's
07:39 wiped out entirely if they can't get back into the Champions League in the next few
07:44 years.
07:45 Keep Kane, give yourself the best possible chance of doing that this season, and allow
07:49 a new manager to start gently weaning the team off their reliance upon one man while
07:55 bedding in any replacements.
07:57 After all, getting a brand new Serco e-mobile to come in and be a like-for-like replacement
08:01 for Lewandowski was an enormous failure, but getting a settled Aubameyang to step up and
08:06 replace his goals was an enormous success.
08:09 Likewise, Kane, for all he's done for the club in his time there, can then leave with
08:13 his head held high if his final season puts them in a position to adequately replace him.
08:18 Rather than the desperate summer shopping they'll need to do now, with clubs all too
08:22 aware of a) how much money they have to spend, and b) how desperately they need to spend
08:27 it.
08:28 And of course, for a story that's ultimately all about silverware, none of this is even
08:32 to mention what a season free of the fixture congestion that accompanies European football
08:36 could do for Tottenham, and Kane's chances of progressing in the domestic cups.
08:42 But regardless of whether Kane stays or goes, Tottenham already have a rebuilding job to
08:46 do this summer.
08:47 Whatever it is they're going to decide, they need to decide it soon.
08:51 [BLANK_AUDIO]