UPS Shares Slide After Missing Q2 Revenue Estimates, Lowers FY23 Guidance

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00:00 All right, let's keep going. Let's go into another report that always seems interesting

00:04 for a bellwether of the economy. Let's go to UPS here, United Parcel Service Q2 adjusted EPS at $2.54

00:13 beats the $2.50 estimate. Sales of 22.1 billion missed the 23.11 billion estimate.

00:22 Full year 23 revenues outlook is 93 billion versus a 96.77 billion estimate. I did a little bit more

00:30 research on why the revenue is coming down. Of course, reduced forecast factored in after the

00:36 labor contract with Teamster. And then when you look at their domestic package revenues at 12.79

00:43 billion versus a 14.81 billion outlook. And then international package revenue also down at 3.53

00:51 billion versus a 4.68 billion consensus. So pretty much struggling on a lot of their areas. And then

00:59 you're going to give more money to the labor. Yes, this is going to affect it negatively moving

01:05 forward. The problem is UPS is a more gauge of consumer spending as well. You don't like to see

01:12 UPS seeing revenue fiscal year 23, 93 billion versus analysts estimates 96 billion. Tells me

01:19 the consumer is spending a little bit less. So maybe it's starting to show up. Maybe they're

01:22 getting a little bit more stretch. We know the consumer is doing stuff. The question was, are

01:26 they still buying stuff? So maybe they are sacrificing buying stuff to do stuff because

01:31 it's busy out there. The recession is not imminent when you're going out to restaurants and doing

01:36 stuff. People are finding money to do stuff. Hence, you know why the airlines had really good

01:40 earnings. You know why a lot of other things. But are they finding money to buy stuff or are

01:44 they just moving it saying, well, I'm not going to buy this, you know, whatever the hell I was

01:48 going to buy. Or, you know, this new couch or this desk or this, you know, chair for my house. I'm

01:54 going to just go on a trip instead. So far, you know, Amazon was fine. So that looked okay. But,

02:00 you know, FedEx wasn't fantastic. UPS a little bit concerning here. So it's somewhat concerning.

02:06 Not throwing the towel on the consumer here. Just saying there's cracks.

02:11 I think there's another factor with the UPS and that's people, if they need something,

02:17 they're not ordering it. They're going to the store. They're getting out. I mean,

02:20 that, you know, now we're, you know, three years.

02:22 People go to the store, Joel?

02:24 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go to the store. Yeah. That's my social life for me. No, I mean, you don't have

02:31 to get, I mean, we still get our daily deliveries and stuff, but you know, who needs, you know,

02:36 people that are going out buying things. Just real quick, recapping the price action here.

02:41 If you were holding out for the lows of the move, it was just under 167 and it didn't get there. It

02:48 got to 168.61. We bounced four bucks off it, but I think if, you know, on a decline here,

02:56 keep an eye on that area. I mean, it's a whole zone. Actually 166.30, there's multiple lows

03:03 there. So I can give you that as, you know, potential support. If we get there, in order

03:08 to get to the fill, the gap's going to take a while on this one. 180.74. Street kind of leading

03:15 the right way into this report though. You've had six or seven down days before the report. So

03:22 little pop, not shortening it in a hole and not too sure we're going to get back even under that

03:27 pre under that 170 area.

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