...وبالتالي هي تشبه التصنيف لجنوب أفريقيا ....
Transcript
00:00So it's kind of like the South African classification. You touched upon some of the factors that influence and are mentioned in our report.
00:08First of all, this policy of facilitating early monetary easing,
00:12The currency depreciated significantly, resulting in fluctuations and a lack of response to monetary policy.
00:19And of course these three factors have resulted
00:23First of all. This monetary policy is early, according to Milosevic. Why? Because this is politics
00:30it was adopted in september with rising inflation . There were also expectations provided by the Central Bank
00:37in terms of considering the commitment to real interest rates and raising them
00:44the main inflation which did not fall as mentioned in the expectations. In addition, looking at the external environment that
00:54it is the environment of the emerging markets that was full of challenges due to the rise in the prices of goods and energy and the bottlenecks in the three supply.
01:03in addition to tightening the monetary policies in the developed countries. Therefore, the Turkish policy was
01:10Too soon. In addition to that in the report, we pointed out that with regards to the figures, the inflation for the month of November was
01:18twenty one percent to twenty three percent. We expect that
01:22to twenty five percent. These inflationary pressures greatly affected, and in the year 20 and 20 inflation and the rise in inflation was due to
01:32The monetary policy of influence that has been adopted after the pandemic.
01:37This policy has led to a decline in the value of the lira,
01:41the increase of the deficit, the rise in inflation and the rise in prices. this continued in twenty one and twenty one and the to inflation died
01:48or the weakness of the inflationary pressures, the collapse of the value of the lira since September, where this started
01:56or this downward trend increased the fluctuations and the fluctuation became in the last days .
02:02As for the last factor, which we also mentioned in our report
02:08It is a high uncertainty about the monetary policy response to this situation
02:13in similar crises. In the past, central banks have been acting hard and raising interest rates.
02:20But so far, there is a clear message from the Turkish authorities and politicians that they want
02:27Lower interest rates per weaker lira
02:32based on the strategy they adopted to turn it into an industrial exporting force.
02:39However, it is not clear whether there is actually a commitment from these authorities to ease these tensions, and the fluctuation has become
02:48You also referred to the elections in 20 and 23, this is one of the factors that we have also mentioned
02:55Which could lead to more facilitation.