[Global Insight] Will Trump and Kim Jong-un hold nuclear talks this year?
- 4 years ago
판문점선언 2년, 올해 비핵화 진있을까?
Two years ago, the world watched as South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, joined hands and stepped over the demarcation line that splits the two Koreas.
It was the first inter-Korean summit in 11 years, reviving hope for improved cross-border ties but more crucially a stepping stone for denuclearization talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
But since then, talks have been stalled and amid the coronavirus pandemic, it seems dialogue won't be resuming for the time being.
But we look back on the last two years and discuss whether the denuclearisation agenda could make it back on the table.
I'm joined by John Nilsson-Wright, Senior Lecturer at the University of Cambridge, Chun In-bum, former Lieutenant General and and Commander of Special Warfare Command of the Republic of Korea Army and Mark P. Barry, a North Korea analyst based in New York.
Dr. Nilsson-Wright: It's been two years, but other than photos and vague documents promising cooperation, we haven't seen a denuclearization deal. Dr. Nilsson-Wright, would you say there has been meaningful progress in relations since then, or have we regressed to square one?
General Chun: North Korea had a busy March, conducting nine missile tests,... despite the fact that the United States and South Korea canceled their joint military drills last year. What message is the regime sending with these kind of low-level provocations?
Dr. Barry: It looks like President Trump hasn't been too worried about the flurry of provocations. In fact, his North Korea agenda seems to have taken a backseat, as he now faces this coronavirus crisis as well as his plans to win re-election. Dr. Barry, is it likely that there will be some kind of meeting before November and just how important is the Trump-Kim dynamic to reaching a deal?
General Chun: The two Koreas agreed to ease military tensions along the border have both sides been keeping their side of the bargain? And what should a lowering of military tensions look like from your perspective?
Dr. Nilsson-Wright: Over the past week, there have been rumours the North Korean leader is gravely ill. Something South Korea's presidential office has denied. Why do you think this speculation sprang out and what does it mean for the future of denuclearization, if Kim Jong-un's health is in danger?
General Chun: In the meantime, what do you think South Korean and U.S. forces should do in this prolonged time of uncertainty?
Dr. Barry: What can South Korea do to revive the denuclearization momentum, or a resumption of talks between the U.S. and North Korea, as it did two years ago?
That's all we have time for today. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Nilsson-Wright in Paris, Fmr Lieutenant General Chun In-bum in Seoul and Dr. Mark Barry in New York.
Two years ago, the world watched as South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, joined hands and stepped over the demarcation line that splits the two Koreas.
It was the first inter-Korean summit in 11 years, reviving hope for improved cross-border ties but more crucially a stepping stone for denuclearization talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
But since then, talks have been stalled and amid the coronavirus pandemic, it seems dialogue won't be resuming for the time being.
But we look back on the last two years and discuss whether the denuclearisation agenda could make it back on the table.
I'm joined by John Nilsson-Wright, Senior Lecturer at the University of Cambridge, Chun In-bum, former Lieutenant General and and Commander of Special Warfare Command of the Republic of Korea Army and Mark P. Barry, a North Korea analyst based in New York.
Dr. Nilsson-Wright: It's been two years, but other than photos and vague documents promising cooperation, we haven't seen a denuclearization deal. Dr. Nilsson-Wright, would you say there has been meaningful progress in relations since then, or have we regressed to square one?
General Chun: North Korea had a busy March, conducting nine missile tests,... despite the fact that the United States and South Korea canceled their joint military drills last year. What message is the regime sending with these kind of low-level provocations?
Dr. Barry: It looks like President Trump hasn't been too worried about the flurry of provocations. In fact, his North Korea agenda seems to have taken a backseat, as he now faces this coronavirus crisis as well as his plans to win re-election. Dr. Barry, is it likely that there will be some kind of meeting before November and just how important is the Trump-Kim dynamic to reaching a deal?
General Chun: The two Koreas agreed to ease military tensions along the border have both sides been keeping their side of the bargain? And what should a lowering of military tensions look like from your perspective?
Dr. Nilsson-Wright: Over the past week, there have been rumours the North Korean leader is gravely ill. Something South Korea's presidential office has denied. Why do you think this speculation sprang out and what does it mean for the future of denuclearization, if Kim Jong-un's health is in danger?
General Chun: In the meantime, what do you think South Korean and U.S. forces should do in this prolonged time of uncertainty?
Dr. Barry: What can South Korea do to revive the denuclearization momentum, or a resumption of talks between the U.S. and North Korea, as it did two years ago?
That's all we have time for today. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Nilsson-Wright in Paris, Fmr Lieutenant General Chun In-bum in Seoul and Dr. Mark Barry in New York.