On "Forbes Newsroom", Fellow at the European Foreign Relations Council, Liana Fix, discusses how Europe can navigate through the ongoing discussions between the United States and China over trade and tariffs.
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00:00Much, much caution.
00:02Is there an upside scenario and a downside that you're looking at or a bull case and a bear case, to use Wall Street terms?
00:08Again, it's a crystal ball question, but I'm curious where your head is on this.
00:12Well, the upside scenario is definitely that we will see a negotiated outcome on the tariffs and trade questions between the EU and the U.S.,
00:21which is essentially, which could be beneficial to both sides.
00:24We'll see some great successes for the United States, some major investments and so on.
00:30Something that Juncker, the former commission president, has done during first Trump's term,
00:35where he basically convinced Trump that he has done a great deal with Europe.
00:38So that's certainly what Europe is hoping for, that they will be able to achieve.
00:42There's hope that if they go into the NATO summit with increased defense spending and so on,
00:47that will prevent the United States and Donald Trump from basically turning his back on NATO.
00:52And they hope that in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, Russia will fall into its own trap and risk the patience of Donald Trump.
01:04So that's the best case outline.
01:06The worst case outline is everything explodes.
01:09The United States threatens its allies, threatens the Europeans with,
01:13well, you are not being helpful on trade and tariffs.
01:16You're not being helpful on Ukraine.
01:17You're exploiting us on NATO.
01:19We will walk away from all of that.
01:21That would be the maximum worst case scenario that I would see.
01:26Well, I guess we have no choice but to perhaps hold our breath or maybe try to breathe through the next few months.
01:31But in the meantime, Liana Fix, fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations,
01:34thank you so much for joining us and breaking down the global trade and negotiation landscape.
01:39We really appreciate your time.
01:41Thank you so much.
01:41My pleasure.