In this episode of ASEAN KITA, we unpack the strategic signals behind President Xi Jinping’s visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Danial Rahman, Chief Executive Officer of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI), joins us to discuss the geopolitical shifts, supply chain realignments, and what Xi’s stop in KL reveals about China’s regional playbook.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to ASEAN Kita. I'm Amirah Aiman.
00:10This is a show where we explore the stories and the challenges and also the opportunities that lies within the region.
00:17So today we unpack President Xi Jinping's three nation swing through Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia
00:23and ask what really lies beyond the handshakes.
00:27Did the tour rewrite trade routes, shift security balances or simply add new photos to Beijing scrapbook?
00:34Joining me in the studio is Daniel Rahman, Chief Executive Officer of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute.
00:40Asli, Daniel, great to have you here. Thank you for joining us.
00:42Thanks for having me, Amirah.
00:43Okay, so the first question is Washington is dangling a hefty 46% duty over Vietnamese exports.
00:50If Hanoi leans closer to Beijing after Xi's visit,
00:54do you think that makes it more likely or less that the U.S. will actually pull that tariff trigger, Daniel?
01:01Right. Let's start by looking at the purpose of the friendship visits, right?
01:06These were planned even before the tariff announcements.
01:08So this has been an effort by Xi Jinping, who had just completed his key, you could say, legislative sitting in, political sitting in China.
01:19And this was now his opportunity to travel Southeast Asia to build up friendship ties and trade politically, economically and socially.
01:25That's the first.
01:26The second premise that we're discussing this is also the uncertainty of which the Donald Trump U.S. administration seems to be existing within, right?
01:36What happens? So you have tariffs today, exemptions tomorrow and pauses the day after.
01:41So in other words, there's a lot of uncertainty.
01:44Now, to answer your question, the answer really depends because of these uncertainties.
01:49As we know, Vietnam is America's largest exporter, so they export the most to the U.S., whereas they're China's largest importer.
01:59And the reason why this scenario exists is because there is a lot of trade between the U.S. and a lot of demand coming from the U.S. side.
02:06So whatever Vietnam exports to the U.S. is because there's demand for businesses within the U.S., small businesses and the likes.
02:13Now, we understand that Trump calls it reciprocal tariffs on the basis that there may have been some, you could say,
02:19backdoor maneuvering of non-tariff barriers or avoidance of tariffs by the Vietnam side by bringing in Chinese goods.
02:26But fundamentally, let's remember this, it is a war, a trade war between the U.S. and China.
02:34And in this regard, Vietnam could be seen as collateral, like most other countries around the world.
02:38But the key point here is America also has to understand that Vietnam is a supportive country towards it.
02:44And not just trade, but it also has other things we can talk about, such as security, such as cultural ties, historical ties.
02:52We understand what has happened in the past. And therefore, the U.S. in itself has to also trade carefully in how it treats these tariffs.
02:58Because if detrimental consequences face Vietnam, which likely it will because of the tariffs, it will also impact the U.S. economy.
03:05But will Beijing use this moment to press Hanoi for a deeper yuan settlement or maybe infrastructure deals?
03:12Well, I wouldn't be surprised if these were part of the conversations.
03:16I mean, Vietnam and Hanoi or Hanoi and China have strong ties within infrastructure, such as railways, such as development.
03:25And these are needs for Vietnam, which is also a rapidly developing country, a young population and growing industry.
03:32So it would be, you know, almost China recognises these opportunities and hence the overtures towards Hanoi and Vietnam.
03:42And this is something that the U.S. also should not take its eye off.
03:45So there's a bigger picture at play, not just the hard infrastructure, rail, etc., but also winning the hearts and minds of the people, which is very important.
03:54You know, some observers say the region is quietly banding together as an economic non-enlightenment club, hoping to buffer against both U.S. tariffs and also Europe's carbon taxes.
04:04Do you see real momentum behind that idea or is it just a wishful thinking for the region?
04:10That's a good question.
04:11I think if we look at ASEAN, while we have the ASEAN economic community, countries have always approached trade and economics on an independent basis because of sovereignty and because ASEAN doesn't intervene.
04:23But with a view towards ASEAN centrality as a core foundation.
04:27I know it's a bit of a funny, it's like saying yes and no at the same time.
04:31But let's look at some examples, right?
04:32We have the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, right?
04:35There is also RCEP, there's also the CPTPP.
04:39Once upon a time, U.S. was part of it, now no longer.
04:42Some ASEAN countries are in both of the agreements, some of them are only in one.
04:47At the same time, you see countries approaching it with very differentiated approaches.
04:51Malaysia, for example, has applied to join BRICS.
04:54Indonesia is a BRICS member.
04:55Philippines will not be keen on joining BRICS for historical and, I suppose, lack of real economic upsides for it.
05:03Whereas you see Singapore applying to join the OECD.
05:06So different countries will have different approaches to how it wants to align its sort of economic situation.
05:12And that also depends on local circumstances.
05:15Like Malaysia, we are very much an open and trading nation.
05:18Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has welcomed investments from the U.S., notwithstanding the challenging geopolitical situation.
05:26And we've seen companies like, well, of course, Tesla, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, all coming in and wanting to invest from data centers and beyond.
05:34So to say that there's a non-alignment club, probably not entirely precise, but there's always been a balance between ASEAN centrality and economic independence in the global market.
05:44But if there is a non-alignment club, would a formal non-alignment club scare off the Western FDI or reassure it instead?
05:53I don't think there will ever be a formal non-alignment club.
05:57It's one of those things which is in practice but never said, right?
06:00It's things that you think about.
06:02But in terms of whether they scare it or not, also I don't think so.
06:04Because we can see the fundamental aspect of investments are return of investments.
06:10European investors looking at the challenging terrorist situations, looking at how the world, at least the U.S., wants to approach it as a unipolar power,
06:19as opposed to a multipolar power, will still look to ASEAN and Southeast Asia as a place for growth, right?
06:26Relatively young population, hungry, the World Bank projects anywhere between 3% to 5% economic growth for the next decade.
06:34So it's an exciting place to be.
06:36And I don't think having a non-aligned position necessarily changes any of that.
06:39Of course, the EU at the sort of formal governmental governance level come in as a block and we don't.
06:46That could be a potential challenge for us because you have, for example, the CBAM.
06:52And that would see an increase in, you call it, green tariffs of imports from Southeast Asia going to Europe.
06:58So for something like this, I would probably argue ASEAN needs to have some kind of collective position
07:03so that there can be better negotiations and better agreements with the European side.
07:09And just to add very quickly, we've seen that when ASEAN countries try to go in alone,
07:13like when Vietnam tried to say zero tariffs to the U.S., what happened?
07:16Donald Trump immediately rejected it.
07:18And that was quite a hard position for them to take.
07:22Now, if ASEAN had gone in as a block, we could have seen a better bargaining positioning
07:27and greater strength from the get-go.
07:30Daniel, the South China Sea has been a long-standing issue within the region and China itself.
07:36Zee's tour projected a lot of goodwill.
07:38But in practical terms, did that make it easier for ASEAN to hash out a binding code of conduct?
07:44Or has Beijing just added leverage to its negotiating hand?
07:48Well, this is where real politics comes in.
07:50We've seen the code of conduct, the COC, having been discussed for almost 13 years now, right?
07:57Since 2002 when it had its original declaration.
08:00We are, I would say, not to say nowhere close to it, but clearly there's still a lot of jostling.
08:06What this visit has done is, of course, it's made the situation more polite because the countries are now engaging.
08:13And there were mentions about, especially, for example, the statement, the joint statement with Malaysia and China
08:18to recognize that the COC is something that's very important in balancing territorial sovereignty,
08:24exclusive economic gain, etc., etc.
08:26Now, Prime Minister Dato Sri Anwar Ibrahim has come up very firmly and said that Petronas will continue
08:31to explore various mineral extraction and exploration within what we deem as our exclusive economic zone, right?
08:40Now, we have to understand that there is, within ASEAN, a schism.
08:45You've got countries which will raise the dispute, Malaysia, Vietnam, and I believe Philippines, right?
08:53But you also have countries which take a more neutral position such as Laos and Cambodia.
08:58So, in that sense, it will be tough for there to be an ASEAN consensus.
09:03But having the COC at the agenda table, as part of the agenda, will always ensure that conversations happen.
09:09Now, it's been a bit tricky because China has increased sort of its aggression, right?
09:13Especially as we've seen shooting of lasers and water towards Filipino fishermen.
09:19And that's not been taken very kindly.
09:21And the Philippines is exploring legal options, whether through WTO, ICJ, etc., etc.
09:26And that will complicate the situation in times to come.
09:29But I think having the COC in place still allows for some kind of negotiations.
09:35But we always know, right, with China, it does get a little bit tricky, especially when it comes to territory and maintaining sovereignty.
09:42But can we realistically expect the assigned COC before Malaysia hands the chair to Myanmar in 2026, do you think?
09:49I think you know the answer to that.
09:50Most likely not.
09:53Well, what we see is negotiations are still happening.
09:55As of mid-2025, there is a second reading of the COC draft.
10:01And China prefers a non-binding code, whereas countries like the Philippines prefer some kind of enforcement mechanism.
10:08And that is something that I think will lead to a deadlock that will not be agreed upon.
10:13So for China, they look at it as a gentleman's agreement, right?
10:16Trust my word.
10:17Trust the fact that we've got relationships, cultural, economic, social.
10:20Whereas other countries are saying, I don't quite trust you in that sense.
10:24Like, I can appreciate it.
10:26But let's have something that if in case your commitments are not that dear to, we can enforce.
10:31Now, Cambodia hosts Chinese warships and Vietnam holds drills with the US and Malaysia orders French submarines.
10:39Is that diversity our collective strength, showing true strategic autonomy or a liability that could pull us in a different direction during a crisis, Daniel?
10:47Well, I think it's quite theoretical, right, this question.
10:52Because if we talk about the situation of a crisis, well, fortunately, thanks to the adherence to rule-based order,
11:01I mean, China and US in our statement as well, China and Malaysia and the other countries it's been to,
11:05have a firm commitment to the United Nations Charter, to various trade organisations.
11:10We also have platforms of engagement like the ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting, the ARFs, the regional forums and the meeting of experts and eminence persons.
11:20So there are multiple platforms of engagement.
11:22Now, it is not uncommon for countries to have a differentiated strategic security approach.
11:29EU, for example, does not have a unified EU policy, right?
11:33They've tried to push for an Indo-Pacific policy, but different countries in EU tend to have their own approach to how they treat Southeast Asia.
11:41Now, we see, for example, and it's also dependent on the history of the ASEAN countries.
11:48So Malaysia, as you said, has got the French submarines, but also some American and looking at Russian military equipment.
11:54Vietnam has got, does exercises with the United States and Japan for war games and such.
12:00And Cambodia has Chinese warships at their real naval base.
12:04Quite recently, the Philippines has expanded one of their key strategic defence agreements with the US,
12:09which I think will increase the number of bases from approximately four to, I believe, something like eight or nine.
12:18And because also we understand that the Philippines and the US have a shared security history in that regard.
12:25So, you know, I'll put it this way.
12:28We hope we'll never get to a situation where there is a threat to the security, safety of Southeast Asia and its nations.
12:38I would like to think that ASEAN's existence and these platforms ensures that there will always be continuous dialogue.
12:44China, historically, has always been very refrained from aggressions.
12:51The US, on the other hand, has a little bit more history of very different foreign policy, if you could put it that way.
12:57Not saying that necessarily anything will happen.
12:59But, of course, I think if you talk about the potential flashpoint, that's most likely Taiwan and not yet the Southeast Asian region.
13:05But when it comes to defence budget, could tighter US financing push countries toward Chinese or European hardware instead?
13:12Well, that's an interesting question because in the US, finance budget, if I'm not mistaken, is between 3% to 6% of their GDP, which is massive.
13:22It is one of the few American centrally coordinated development strategies, i.e., as some people may say, the military-industrial complex.
13:31Now, whether the tightening of budget, well, as you know, Trump is saying that make Europe pay for the security, make Southeast Asia prefer the security.
13:40Basically, they don't want anyone, they don't want to be paying for anybody else's security.
13:45That's a tricky question.
13:46Whereas China has always been very moderate in how they've expanded on their security spending.
13:52Of course, let's be very clear, the US has got a huge advantage because of many, many years of investment.
13:56Now, whether that might push ASEAN countries, I think that really depends.
14:00We've seen Japan, for example, move away from their constitutional pledge of a purely defence force post-World War II to today,
14:10which is one that also has potential attack capabilities, right?
14:15And that's not just in response to China.
14:18No, it's more what's happening in North Korea, right?
14:20And they have to build up those capacities.
14:22Now, a US reduction in spending could mean countries rethink their spending insecurity.
14:27I think some countries have indicated that, but I really hope that doesn't happen.
14:32Because what we see is security spending will remove other more important needs within Southeast Asia,
14:39which is development, trade, education, welfare, and I don't think anybody has a space for it.
14:47Now, yes, if US reduces their spending, it doesn't mean we have to spend more.
14:51It just means we have to invest more in peace, in dialogue, in engagement.
14:56And that's why entities like ASEAN become even more important in time to come.
15:01Well, there's still a lot to unpack on President Xi Jinping's visit to ASEAN with Daniel Rahman,
15:05Chief Executive Officer of Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute of ASLI.
15:09But we'll take a short break and we'll be right back after this.
15:21Welcome back to ASEAN Kita and I'm Amirul Aiman.
15:29And joining me is Daniel Rahman of ASLI, where we are unpacking President Xi Jinping's visit
15:34to three ASEAN nations, which is Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
15:39Now, Daniel, let's imagine that Taiwan Street heats up tomorrow.
15:43What role could ASEAN realistically play to help cool things down?
15:47Well, the Taiwan Strait is definitely a flashpoint in ASEAN I was mentioning earlier.
15:53We see that's also because China has adopted a One China policy
15:58and it is something that Malaysia has recognised since the 1970s
16:02when we opened trade relations with them.
16:05Of course, Taiwan in that regard has continuously been supported by the US on many fronts
16:12and also because the US sees it as a strategic interest
16:15but also a way to kind of keep an eye up on what's happening in China.
16:20Now, some of the naval bases in the Philippines that I mentioned earlier
16:23are all on the straits that face Taiwan.
16:26So it shows that that's definitely an area which is of great sensitivity.
16:31Now, if anything were to happen or if there were to be higher tensions,
16:37I think we have to also understand that there are approximately 750,000 Southeast Asians
16:42who ply their trade in Taiwan from work, trade, etc., etc.
16:47And it could be quite a drastic humanitarian disaster.
16:51Of course, ASEAN, if anything were to happen, could convene a dialogue,
16:55could convene a summit and a discussion around it.
16:59This recent visit by President Xi to the region
17:03has also affirmed the commitment of these prospective countries
17:06towards the One China policy.
17:08So China has no reason to be worried of the ASEAN position towards their sovereignty.
17:15And I think it's reciprocal because each of our nations
17:18also have certain sovereignty challenges from time to time.
17:23Now, what ASEAN can do could be multiple.
17:25I think first, there are diplomatic channels
17:27which include convening an ASEAN plus 3 summit
17:30which means to bring together Japan, Korea, and China to the table
17:35to have a conversation on it
17:37because whatever happens to Taiwan will have an impact on trade
17:40such as the chips.
17:42And that in and of itself, like for example, Malaysia,
17:45we are one of the top 10 in the world,
17:47could disrupt easily 20-30% of chip trade to the US.
17:51So that will trigger US involvement
17:55which will not be in anybody's favor.
17:56So I think what's important here is to understand
17:59that ASEAN can play that role of dialogue.
18:01Now, I don't think we can probably help from a humanitarian perspective.
18:06Nevertheless, I don't think there's much more that we can do beyond that.
18:10Now, let's be very clear.
18:11It's a tricky situation.
18:12You're asking me about Taiwan.
18:13And we hope that it doesn't get to that.
18:16So I think what's important is before it even gets that far,
18:19there is continuous support within the ASEAN
18:23towards the One China policy.
18:25and ensuring that what's more important here
18:28is that trade continues fairly between these countries,
18:31that everybody has an economic interdependence.
18:33I think that's one of the best ways to ensure that
18:35the conflict doesn't break up.
18:37I want to move this discussion to focus on Malaysia, Daniel.
18:41So there are several, quite a number of agreements.
18:43Malaysia just signed with China.
18:45So which tree do you think could most reshape our economy by 2030
18:49and what makes them stand out?
18:51Sure, thanks.
18:51That's a nice question.
18:52So as we know, during President Xi Jinping's visit,
18:55there were 31 MOUs signed,
18:57a couple of diplomatic notes,
18:59and by and large,
19:00it affirms the importance of trade within the countries.
19:03Now, China is Malaysia's largest trading partner,
19:06I think 16 years,
19:08going on 17 years in a row,
19:10which shows that our economic interdependence
19:13and dynamism is very much there.
19:15As to what tree MOUs, for me, are most exciting,
19:19I think we preface that with understanding
19:21we all have our own economic goals for Malaysia,
19:23which is the Madani Economic Framework,
19:25launched in 2023.
19:27And one of the goals is to be a top 30 GDP by 2030.
19:31The second goal is to increase the medium wage
19:34from approximately about 40% to 45%.
19:38And the other one is to increase women participation
19:41in the workforce by a couple more percent,
19:43which is, I think, 60%, currently by about 55%.
19:46So taking this into consideration,
19:48more innovation, competitiveness,
19:50the three things for me,
19:51I think first would be the University Malaya,
19:53Peking University collaboration
19:55in materials as well as artificial intelligence.
19:58Now, why this is very interesting,
19:59and perhaps we should look more into it,
20:01is because AI, of course,
20:02we are at our national AI office,
20:04it's growing,
20:04it's a space where we're going to need more energy,
20:06where we're going to need more talent,
20:09where we're going to need more,
20:10you could say, training data,
20:13whereas materials,
20:15and this is why I'm excited,
20:16we look into areas like renewable energy,
20:19battery capacity,
20:20the growth of electronic vehicles.
20:22So just these two areas have a lot of,
20:25you could say, domino effect on other areas.
20:27I think that's the first that's really exciting.
20:29Now, the second one is the MOU
20:31between the Transport Ministry
20:32and China's rail construction companies.
20:35We understand that the ECRL is progressing quite well,
20:39and there will be continuous upgrades
20:41to the line as we go along.
20:43And if you look at it from a different perspective,
20:45what's important is,
20:46it really opens up the east coast of Malaysia
20:48to new possibilities.
20:50Just like what the North-South Expressway did
20:52for the northern side and KL Selangor,
20:56from Perlis all the way to Johor.
20:58We see the ECRL opening up new trade routes
21:01for Pahang, Kelantan, Cerengganu,
21:04and those states on that side.
21:07So I think that's something that's very exciting.
21:08And that's the crux of it, right?
21:10It's about empowering people
21:12and allowing them to have opportunities at job creation.
21:15Now, we think that Malaysia is quite advanced
21:17because we've got nice big cities,
21:19KL, Johor, Penang, for example.
21:20But the east coast is, you could say,
21:23a really deep pool of potential wealth generation
21:25and prosperity for all.
21:27I would say the third one,
21:29if I would think about something,
21:30would be the green energy investment framework.
21:35I think that's something that is very important
21:38in time to come.
21:39Climate change, according to the World Economic Forum,
21:41is going to be one of the top,
21:43well, the top risk to the global fraternity
21:47in the medium term,
21:48which is the next five to ten years.
21:49So ensuring that there is a proper green energy transition
21:52and mix is something that I think would be very important.
21:56Now, what wasn't mentioned explicitly,
21:58which I would advocate for,
21:59would probably be looking into nuclear energy.
22:02It is something that Malaysia has spoken about.
22:04China are known for being developers of SMR,
22:07small medium reactors,
22:09as well as have decently stable nuclear energy mix
22:13as part of their grid.
22:15And in a recent conversation I had
22:17with the World Economic Forum,
22:18nuclear energy will likely be the only way
22:22for us to meet our growing energy demands in ASEAN.
22:25Prime Minister, of course,
22:27spoken about the ASEAN energy grid.
22:30And I think nuclear will have to be part of that conversation.
22:34Of course, we have to talk about security,
22:35we have to talk about safety and all,
22:37but that's an important conversation to be had.
22:40Malaysia has quite a number of times,
22:43our Prime Minister Dato' Sri Aano Ibrahim said that
22:45we remain neutral,
22:47we remain friendly trading nations
22:48with Washington and also Beijing.
22:51And we have seen that we rolled out the red carpet
22:53for President Xi Jinping's visit here,
22:56but we still haven't placed even a courtesy call
22:58to President Donald Trump.
22:59Is that calculated strategy keeping the power dry
23:03or does it look like an imbalance
23:04that we might regret, Daniel?
23:06Well, that's a tough one.
23:11Only because what we've seen is China has played a more,
23:16you could say,
23:17they have reached out a bit more aggressively
23:19than the US in this current climate.
23:22Now, why we haven't had that call,
23:24I think it's still anybody's guess.
23:26We look at it from a geopolitical perspective.
23:29Prime Minister Aanoah has been very vocal
23:31about what is happening in Gaza
23:33and we understand that that is a position
23:36that may not be favoured by the American administration.
23:40So, not calling, not giving us a call
23:42or not taking a call
23:43could be seen as potentially a way of,
23:45I wouldn't say punishing,
23:47but to sort of signal disapproval
23:49with perhaps what Prime Minister Aanoah is doing.
23:52But that's not a criticism of Prime Minister Aanoah Ibrahim.
23:55In fact, that's a praise
23:56because it shows that there are world leaders
23:58who have been willing to take a firm position
24:00on the issue.
24:02And this is where I think
24:03the United States administration
24:04should give Malaysia, as ASEAN chair,
24:07more credit when it comes to putting forth
24:09the leadership position.
24:11Because mind you, what's happening in Gaza
24:12is not an isolated position that only we take.
24:15It's what the majority of countries
24:16and members of the United Nations have.
24:18I think that's the first.
24:19The second part to that is,
24:20nevertheless, we've seen
24:22the Malaysian administration,
24:24under Dr. Sri Aanoah Ibrahim,
24:25make overtures towards the American industry,
24:29towards American diplomatic services.
24:32There was an event in March
24:34where the Prime Minister
24:34and the American ambassador
24:36were on stage together,
24:37addressing, I think,
24:39a group of geopolitical analysts
24:41as well as industry.
24:43So it shows that, you know,
24:44we've not closed the door.
24:45At the same time,
24:46I believe that there's still
24:47an open invitation for ASEAN to,
24:50sorry, for the United States
24:51to attend the ASEAN-US summit,
24:52as well as related summits
24:54which are coming up this year.
24:56So I think, by and large,
24:57let's not read into it too much.
24:59Yes, everybody is so eager
25:00for that phone call,
25:01but a phone call is just a phone call.
25:03What's important is to emphasise
25:04that the Malaysian government
25:07has also adopted
25:08an actively neutral position
25:10when it comes to trade, right?
25:12We welcome investments
25:13from American companies.
25:15We enable them.
25:16That creates jobs,
25:17not just in Malaysia,
25:18but also in America as well
25:19because it's always reciprocal benefits.
25:22So yes,
25:23while everybody is eagerly
25:24waiting for that call,
25:25I think there are a lot of upsides.
25:26And Malaysia has balanced,
25:29you know,
25:29this challenging geopolitical
25:30economic situation,
25:32I think quite fairly well.
25:33And I hope the call
25:35will eventually happen
25:36and us and Malaysia
25:37therefore can also continue
25:38to lead ASEAN
25:40collectively and effectively
25:42throughout this chairmanship.
25:45With the US tariff reprieve,
25:47reprieve its clock ticking,
25:49what should Minister Tengku Zafro
25:50put at the top of his Washington agenda
25:53if he wants to secure
25:54more permanent exemption, Daniel?
25:57Right.
25:57So two things
25:58that immediately come to mind.
25:59First is the semiconductor industry
26:01is worth about
26:0216 over a billion US dollars
26:04or Malaysia's exports to US
26:06is about 20%
26:07of their chip requirements.
26:10So that in and of itself,
26:11I think is the first.
26:13The second is to also understand
26:15that ASEAN
26:16is a 1.2 trillion US dollar
26:18trade block
26:19and growing with the US.
26:20And therefore,
26:22the upsides to businesses
26:23and economics is really big.
26:25Now, let's understand
26:26Trump is fundamentally
26:28a transactional leader, right?
26:30As a successful businessman
26:31in the US,
26:33he has the art of negotiation.
26:36And he, I believe,
26:38if he and his team administration
26:40can see the upsides,
26:42this is what we will
26:43will be the greatest hook
26:44in order to ensure
26:45that the tariff situation
26:47is moderated.
26:48Now, as I said,
26:49right at the start
26:50of this discussion,
26:51it was terraced one day,
26:53pauses the next day,
26:54exemptions the third day.
26:56And we can see
26:56the exemptions
26:57have been announced
26:58for, for example,
26:59smartphones,
26:59I believe the semiconductor chips
27:02as well as laptops,
27:04something like that,
27:04which also shows
27:05that the administration
27:06is weighing very delicately
27:08what they have.
27:10Now, 90 days,
27:11I think we're about
27:12just about under a month in.
27:14So we still have
27:14about two and a half months
27:16thereabouts to go
27:17and, you know,
27:18anything could happen.
27:20But I feel that pragmatism
27:21will prevail.
27:22We know that,
27:23well, some reports say
27:24that Elon Musk
27:25is not a big fan of tariffs
27:26and he has the ear
27:27of the president,
27:28but Peter Navarro,
27:29who is Trump's
27:31economics advisor,
27:33is very much for it.
27:34So that's going to be
27:35an interesting play
27:37to see what happens
27:38because clearly,
27:39Elon Musk is very entrenched
27:40within Dodge
27:41and the restructuring
27:43of the American
27:44governance system.
27:45and, well,
27:46he's the richest man
27:46in the world
27:47and a big political contributor.
27:49Whereas Peter Navarro's
27:50economic position
27:51has always been quite aligned
27:52with Trump's donors
27:53from an economic sense.
27:55So I think in that regard,
27:56Tengku Zafru will have
27:57to go in strong
27:58and to be very clear,
27:59these are the trade outcomes,
28:00number one.
28:00Number two,
28:01I think it's also to remind
28:02or to share with the US
28:03that we are a bridge,
28:05right?
28:06And we are very much
28:07a bridge builder
28:08and Malaysia's position
28:10in ASEAN
28:10can therefore ensure
28:11that if America
28:12has any concerns
28:14about tariffs,
28:15trade imbalances,
28:16non-trade barriers,
28:17that we are the ones
28:18who can put their
28:19priorities
28:21on the ASEAN agenda
28:23because, you know,
28:24we lead ASEAN this year.
28:26So I think
28:27that's the first,
28:28that's the second.
28:28I think the third thing
28:29would also be to look
28:30at the different pathways
28:32to offset the trade imbalances.
28:34It's not just about
28:35putting a tariff
28:36of products coming in,
28:37it's about
28:37what else can Malaysia do
28:39to facilitate
28:40to narrow the trade surplus
28:43or to enhance
28:44economic gain in the US.
28:45So one example
28:46is the Johor Bahru,
28:47Singapore Economic Zone.
28:48You know,
28:49right now there's
28:49the special conference
28:51going on in Johor
28:52to discuss this.
28:53I think if there were
28:55more efforts,
28:55trade missions done
28:56to attract American companies
28:58to set up base in Johor
29:00at the Special Economic Zone,
29:01I think that's also
29:02a potential upside
29:03to the American market.
29:05Like fundamentally,
29:05that's it, right?
29:06It's what ensures
29:07that the American economy
29:09continues to be strong,
29:10jobs continue to be created.
29:11So I think
29:12these are the three things
29:13that I think Zafru can do
29:14in the next 90 days.
29:15Thank you very much, Daniel.
29:16And I guess that's all the time
29:17that we have
29:18for ASEAN Kita today
29:19where we unpack
29:20President Xi Jinping's
29:21ASEAN visit
29:22to three nations.
29:23And I guess that's all the time
29:25that we have today
29:25for ASEAN Kita.
29:26And thank you for watching
29:27and have a nice day.