Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US Vice President JD Vance on Monday acknowledged significant progress in negotiations toward an early trade agreement, according to statements from both offices. The development comes as New Delhi seeks to avert potential US tariffs and strengthen its ties with the Trump administration. Vance’s visit is also seen as paving the way for Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to India later this year for the Quad leaders' summit, which includes India, Australia, Japan, and the United States.
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00:00I must have a good seat, yeah?
00:30Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance
00:41have welcomed the progress in the India-U.S. bilateral trade agreement efforts
00:47to enhance, there also to talk about enhancement of cooperation in energy,
00:52in defense and in strategic technologies.
00:55So President Donald Trump will be visiting India later this year
00:58for the Quad Summit.
01:00India is hosting the Quad Summit.
01:03What does this indicate?
01:05The visit of the U.S. Vice President right now
01:07and of President Trump later this year
01:09about the trajectory of the India-U.S. relationship
01:14in the short term, in the medium term and in the long term.
01:19How will this region and the world view this?
01:22India's former ambassador to the United States,
01:25Ambassador Taranjeet Sandhu and Strategic Affairs Analyst,
01:27Professor Brahma Chilani.
01:29They joined me to decode the first leg of the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's visit.
01:34There's also a personal leg and a component in Jaipur and in Agra.
01:41But even at the seven Lokalyan Marg residents of the Prime Minister,
01:44the second lady, Ushat Chilikuri Vance and the three children dressed in their formal attire.
01:51The Prime Minister showed them around his house and his gardens.
01:56All of that and much more we discuss.
01:59I'm Gaurav Savant.
02:00As always, let's get started with the headlines at 10.
02:03In the United States, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi says the election commission is compromised.
02:14Something is very wrong with the system.
02:17BJP hits out that Rahul Gandhi accuses him of defaming India on foreign soil.
02:22BJP MP Nishikand Dubey attacks former Chief Election Commissioner over Vakf Act criticism.
02:35Says Dr. S.Y. Khureshi was a Muslim commissioner.
02:40Khureshi hits back, says,
02:42Judge by work, not by religion.
02:44BJP distances itself from Nishikand Dubey's remarks.
02:47Wife of former Karnataka DGP confesses to murder.
02:58The murder weapon has also been recovered.
03:01India today accesses the wife's WhatsApp chats.
03:11China warns against trade deals with the U.S. at Beijing's expense.
03:16The U.S. promises countermeasures.
03:18China slams the tariff escalation.
03:21Says U.S. is bargaining with the tiger for its skin.
03:31Pope Francis dies the day after Easter at 88 years after prolonged illness.
03:38The head of the worldwide Catholic Church is no more.
03:46Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance welcomed
03:55what the government has described as significant progress in the negotiations
04:01for a mutually beneficial India-U.S. bilateral trade agreement
04:06focused on the welfare of the people of the two countries.
04:10Now, during this bilateral meeting at 7 Lok Kalyan Marg residents of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
04:17the Prime Minister and the U.S. Vice President noted continued efforts towards
04:21enhancing cooperation in energy, defence and strategic technologies.
04:27So, these are key focus areas.
04:30And then, of course, there are other areas of interest.
04:33The two leaders also exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest.
04:39And this is significant.
04:41They've called upon for dialogue and diplomacy.
04:45Dialogue and diplomacy as a way forward to address any ongoing issues.
04:51J.D. Vance, his wife Usha Vance and their three children met Prime Minister Narendra Modi
04:57at the 7 Lok Kalyan Marg residents.
04:59Watch those images while this was the formal leg of the visit.
05:04But the dinner was at the Prime Minister's residence.
05:07And this sends out a message of the warmth and the personal ties
05:14between the Prime Minister and the U.S. Vice President and his family.
05:19Remember, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has met them twice in the past.
05:22Once in Paris at the AI Summit and then again in the United States of America.
05:28Watch these images as the Prime Minister showed them around his house and the garden.
05:33The Prime Minister showed them, as you see in these images, the garden, the area where they feed birds.
05:41There was a peacock in the garden and then, of course, the Prime Minister's residence.
05:44Ushah Vance, incidentally, as our viewers well know, is of Indian origin,
05:50shared a warm exchange with the Prime Minister.
05:53And this kind of blends personal connection with global diplomacy.
05:58The Prime Minister's residence is a great opportunity for the Prime Minister to be able to see.
07:28With UAE, with Saudi Arabia, it's a significant message that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is sending across.
07:35Professor Brahma Chilani, a very well-respected Strategic Affairs Analyst, joins me on this special broadcast.
07:41Professor Chilani, how would you view these beautiful images and the hard-nosed diplomacy that's going on behind the scenes to at least reach phase one of that bilateral trade agreement by fall?
07:57How would you describe the trajectory of the India-U.S. relationship?
08:02It has been quite transformative since October. In October, the relationship between the two countries was under increasing strain.
08:12The Joe Biden administration was playing the Khalistan card against India, the human rights card against India, and also using indictments to bring the Modi government under pressure.
08:22And then in a few months, we have seen how this relationship has fundamentally transformed in a positive direction.
08:29In fact, Vance's visit signals a new chapter in the relationship.
08:35It's clear that the Biden-era drift is being reversed.
08:40The Trump administration has cast Vance's India trip as a key diplomatic mission, a key diplomatic mission aimed at strengthening strategic and economic ties with India.
08:54So there's a clear shift in the U.S. attitude towards India with the change of administration.
09:03And if Trump realizes his goal of ending the war in Ukraine, his administration will shift America's strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, making the relationship with India even more critical for the success of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
09:22Yes, that's a very, very important point that you're making and all indications do appear to be that that shift from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the situation in the Indo-Pacific.
09:35And that's the question I was coming to, sir, that Vice President is here.
09:39The U.S. Vice President is here right now.
09:42The U.S. President is expected in India later this year for the Quad Summit that India hosts this year.
09:48Last year was, of course, our turn, but because President Biden wanted to host it, so India gets our turn this year.
09:55How does that relationship move forward?
09:58And would that bilateral trade agreement or phase one of that bilateral trade agreement, in your appreciation, be concluded in the next 90 days or by fall and before President Trump's visit to India?
10:10Well, let's look at the larger context.
10:13In recent months alone, since Trump returned to the White House, there have been a series of bilateral visits and engagements.
10:25We had Modi visiting the White House in the second week of February.
10:30We had then we had the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, coming to New Delhi.
10:34And now Vance's visit. This will be followed by Defence Secretary Pete Hicks's visit to India by June, most likely.
10:45And then Trump himself coming in the fall for the Quad Summit, as you mentioned.
10:49So, clearly, there is this renewed vigour in the relationship.
10:55And, of course, the personal rapport between Trump and Modi has proven durable.
11:03And that personal rapport has been instrumental in restoring the relationship, in reviving the relationship from, you know, the relationship had frayed very clearly under Biden.
11:16And now that relationship has been restored.
11:18But, of course, there are several differences that remain. Trade remains a flashpoint.
11:26This does not mean that tensions remain.
11:29In fact, the tensions that fled under Biden are beginning to ease.
11:33But on trade, difficult negotiations are still ahead.
11:36And I think that one has to keep in mind that Trump's America First agenda often collides with Modi's Make an India initiative.
11:47And in a way, Modi, in a way, reminded Trump at the White House about, you know, the parallel but divergent paths when he borrowed from Trump's own slogan by vowing to make India great again.
12:04So, we've had this, you know, these, the tensions have eased.
12:13But there are certain issues that need to be ironed out.
12:16Also, U.S. policies toward India's neighborhood, they have to become a bit more aligned with India's interests.
12:24That's the point I want you to weigh in on, you know, when it comes to Pakistan state-sponsored radical Islamist terror, rise of radicalism in Bangladesh, what the Biden administration was doing in terms of that regime change operation.
12:39And, you know, so beyond the optics, how does it show it's India, either in favor of India, if not openly and directly India first when it comes to neighborhood and a very difficult neighborhood?
12:53I'll come to China in just a moment.
12:55But Pakistan and Bangladesh first, sir.
12:57See, if the U.S. and India are to coordinate effectively in the Indo-Pacific to help counter China's aggressive expansionism, they must reconcile their policies towards India's neighborhood.
13:11They can't be working at cross-purposes or the U.S. shouldn't be working in a way that is antithetical to India's core interests in India's own neighborhood.
13:21So, we have seen how under Biden, the U.S. was aiding military-backed regimes in Pakistan and Bangladesh while trying to overthrow Myanmar's military regime.
13:36And all these policies that we had under Biden contributed to regional instability and also to instability in India's border areas.
13:48For example, Manipur ethnic conflict in part has been fueled by the inflow of arms and militants from Myanmar.
13:57And some of these arms that are, that have flowed into northeast India are actually Western weapons that have been supplied to the rebels in Myanmar.
14:06So, it's very important for the U.S. and India to work in a way that reconciles their policies towards India's neighborhood so that they can be effective partners in the larger Indo-Pacific region.
14:21And how do you view China's response, Professor Chilani?
14:25The way China issued a statement, you heard their Commerce Ministry when it said that there would be effective countermeasures should somebody have a deal with the United States of America that adversely impacts Chinese interests.
14:38Is that aimed at India? Is that aimed at Europe? Or is that a general signal that Beijing is sending out?
14:45Gaurav, Gaurav, China is on the back foot because it doesn't have the same leverage in the trade war as the U.S.
14:52After all, China exports five times more goods to the U.S. than what it imports.
14:59So, obviously, it has a weaker hand compared to the U.S.
15:04And therefore, its own response to Trump's tariffs have been rather cautious and, you know, and very, they have been very careful not to do things that would actually cause further harm to the Chinese economy.
15:22And they have made it clear that they will not go beyond the 125 percent tariffs that they have imposed, even if Trump were to further hike the tariffs against China.
15:32That's because of China's limited leverage received with the U.S.
15:37And I think that this rhetoric from China about, you know, wanting other countries not to gang up with the U.S., this rhetoric, of course, shows.
15:50In fact, it highlights Beijing's limitations.
15:57The fact that today at a time when the Chinese economy is faltering, China is facing a deepening demographic crisis, it has been hit by unparalleled tariffs by the U.S.
16:13And this is going to have a significant impact on China's growth trajectory in the years to come.
16:22In fact, what Trump is doing is he's actually being very strategic.
16:30The tariffs are only one element in a bigger strategy of the Trump administration.
16:34He has also placed restrictions on chip exports to China so as to slow its advance in artificial intelligence and also to choke its military modernization.
16:48So, there is a clear effort on the part of Trump to make China the focus of U.S. policies and to contain China in different ways, technologically, economically, politically, diplomatically, which is why India becomes even more important for the Trump administration policy.
17:12That's the point I was coming to, that if India is so important and India's importance will only increase, do we expect, you know, a more conciliatory approach in that bilateral trade agreement negotiations?
17:26Or will the U.S. also be a very tough negotiator?
17:30Because in areas like agriculture and dairy, there are certain red lines that India would also be, you know, bringing across and trying to get that message across.
17:41Or that negotiation, we should leave to the negotiators and wait for the final outcome.
17:47I think it's apparent that the Trump administration needs India more than India needs the U.S. in a way.
17:56Because the whole Indo-Pacific strategy of the Trump administration, in a way, relies on India, India being co-opted in that strategy.
18:08And it's because of, partly because of this, that the Trump administration is doing a course correction on India policy.
18:18And there are conscious efforts on both in New Delhi and in Washington to reestablish mutual respect and trust.
18:27So India has to negotiate in a manner to uphold its vital economic interests.
18:39Absolutely.
18:40It shouldn't be giving, it shouldn't be giving concessions to the way, for example, before Modi went to the White House, India already announced a reduction in income tariffs.
18:49That, you know, those, that signaled weakness on India's part.
18:54And also, for example, now Reuters is reporting in recent days that India has already agreed to slash tariffs on over half of imports from America worth $23 billion.
19:05That's about, you know, more than half of the total trade, more than half of the total trade surplus that India enjoys.
19:13And I think that India has to negotiate in a manner that it does not harm its economic interests, because its economy is very vulnerable at the moment.
19:27As we all know, that India's economic growth has slowed and the agricultural sector is politically very, very sensitive sector, because...
19:38It indeed is.
19:39And we'll track that story very closely, Professor Chilani, for joining me here on India Today.
19:46Many thanks.
19:47Over the next several days and weeks, Professor Chilani will stay with me as we discuss some of these aspects of taking this relationship forward and how countries like China, countries in the region and across the world view the coming together of these two democracies, strengthening their partnership.
20:03And earlier today, just a short while back, I spoke to Ambassador Taranjeet Singh Sandhu, India's former ambassador to the United States, about the J.D. Vance visit, the optics and the substance beyond the optics.
20:15Take a look.
20:17What are his impressions of India that you can share with us?
20:28Of course, he's married to somebody from India and we've seen him, you know, celebrate festivals of our country, the entire family gathering together on Deepavali.
20:39But does that have an impact when there is a relationship between two countries, when, you know, President Trump's administration tries for America first, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries for India first, and you have taken that relationship forward as India's ambassador to the United States of America.
20:57Does, do these personal relationships help tide over niggles and problems that may arise?
21:03Of course, they do.
21:05And you know that he met right at the start of his tenure.
21:10You know, he met Prime Minister in Paris, and you already see him here.
21:15And as far as Indian Americans are concerned, he has a very good relationship.
21:20You know, in Ohio, the Indian Americans are quite a dominant presence.
21:27In fact, I know from the personal, this thing about my father and mother, both studied in Ohio State University, where Vice President Vance has also gone.
21:36So, Indian Americans already have a good relationship with him.
21:41And then you have mentioned about Pusha, and you have seen him very respectful for Indian customs.
21:48And even if you read his book, I think he is quite open.
21:52So, therefore, even here, you are showing the pictures.
21:57When, what was the first place he visited?
22:00I think the point definitely has gone home.
22:04And, but what is important?
22:07The important part here is that, look, the Prime Minister is very, very smart at the diplomacy part.
22:16And here is an important input giver in the United States political administration.
22:24And you have him here, and people here, you know, Indians anyway, are always very welcoming.
22:31Look at the visit of 2020, Feb, when President Trump came here and to Ahmedabad.
22:41I can tell you that any Republican senator and congressman I spoke at that time, just before the COVID hit, President Trump had already spoken about it.
22:54Also, this time when Prime Minister Modi was there, that's one of the things he remembered, 140,000 people coming and welcoming him.
23:02Oh, absolutely, sir.
23:05In fact, I'd covered both Namaste Trump at Ahmedabad and Howdy Modi at Houston, Texas at the NRG Stadium.
23:13The energy there had to be seen.
23:15And I'm sure political leaders keep that in mind.
23:17But when it comes to the comprehensive strategic partnership between America and India, both the countries need each other.
23:25But is this BTA?
23:28One, it's an opportunity.
23:29But two, true.
23:30Two, can it also lead to problems?
23:32Is it leading to problems?
23:34Or will the two sides be willing to accommodate each other?
23:36So, see, kind of any relationship has complications.
23:44You know, even our relationships at home have complications.
23:48They have to be tackled.
23:50So, during Trump, one, there were issues, but they were tackled.
23:55During Trump, two, there are lots of issues.
23:59We are not talking just about United States and India.
24:02There is a worldwide issue of trade that is coming up.
24:05But if you look at the light within that, I think the Indian aspect, essentially the balance, will be much more easier achieved than many other complications.
24:18But you touched a very important point.
24:20That is the strategic relationship.
24:22Look, I think even a child can see that as the time is progressing, you are seeing some of the powers that are not that friendly to the United States
24:34are already testing it.
24:35So, as we move ahead, be a bit patient.
24:40I think this strategic relationship is only bound to go deeper and it will flower more.
24:46I will only point to the Indo-Pacific strategy, which came out towards the end of Trump 1.
24:54If you look at it, you can see the important role which India was to play in his thinking.
25:01And I'm sure in these coming days, that will play a significant aspect in settlement of what you are looking at, some of the problems.
25:11Sir, that's a very significant point.
25:15If I were to read between the lines, it's a very, very major point that you're making here.
25:19This year, India is also hosting the Quad Summit, which we were to hold last year in the United States of America,
25:27who wanted President Biden to host it as his farewell, you know, Quad.
25:32But this year, when Quad Summit happens in India, President Trump will be here.
25:35How would you view the Indo-Pacific strategy moving forward?
25:40Absolutely.
25:41Quad will be.
25:42And if you remember, during Trump's first presidency, Quad was given a huge lift.
25:51And President Trump and his team at National Security Council at that time were very significantly invested.
25:59And here I may point out, incidentally, at the end of his presidency, President Trump gave a highest award to all the four Quad leaders.
26:11And I had received it on behalf of Prime Minister Modi then.
26:14So, Quad is a significant aspect.
26:17And when President Trump comes here, I'm sure you will see.
26:22And you can certainly be confident that the president's establishment here will make it a memorable visit for President Trump.
26:35Perhaps, Savinder, his last visit to India was extremely significant in Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
26:40And he's talked about it, and you also had a role to play in it in ensuring that he does come to India at a time when he seemed a little skeptical initially.
26:50And I'd love you to share that story.
26:51But I also want you to weigh in on the tariffs America has imposed on, one, China, 245% in instances,
27:01and on countries that are seen as very close to China, or China may use their ports to export to the United States of America.
27:08So, there's a method in the madness in what Donald Trump appears to be doing, Ambassador.
27:14Well, I don't want to be giving commentary on what's happening.
27:20You know that politics is complicated and international politics is certainly complicated.
27:26This is not the last word.
27:28And that's why I said just be patient and see how the negotiations proceed worldwide.
27:34I'm confident that India-U.S. relationship is bound to deepen, and certainly some of the other aspects will play an important role.
27:46And here is an opportunity.
27:49You know, there is no doubt that any country can't go it all alone.
27:56So, there are significant aspects, and we have the international production system today in which you require reliable supply chains.
28:08And I do know that the United States certainly regards India as a reliable partner.
28:14China has been, you know, issuing, if I may, threats as some countries view it, or warnings as some others may perceive it to be,
28:25that in case they want to do deals which adversely impact China's interests,
28:31there will be either consequences or countermeasures.
28:34How would you view that, sir?
28:36So, I think many of the countries around know the past conduct, and so it's no secret.
28:47But again, we have China as our neighbor, and I'm sure the current government is well aware of tackling China because it has.
29:01But that also points to, look, we never invited China to come to our border.
29:07They came on their own, and do keep that in mind.
29:09And therefore, I think it's very significant that the countries which have a similar attitude need to cooperate.
29:18And that is the significance also, especially the strategic significance of United States-India partnership.
29:26And that's the question I wanted to come to, Ambassador.
29:30The strategic bilateral cooperation, India is also looking at, you know, when you talk about trust in terms of high-end critical technology coming to India,
29:41co-production, co-development.
29:43Are we moving beyond words when you were our ambassador to the United States?
29:46There was a lot of push to ensure ISAT, you know, results in technologies being manufactured in India, resulting in greater manufacture in India.
29:58Do you see that progressing the way it was envisaged?
30:05Look, there's a new understanding which had come out.
30:11They are calling it trust.
30:12But essentially, the technology partnership is going to be important because India has the technology expertise.
30:24U.S. has that.
30:25And do keep in mind that India has a very young population.
30:29In an aging world, we have 50% of our population is 26 years and below.
30:35Now, it's true that things are moving towards AI.
30:41But keep in mind that AI also requires trained manpower.
30:47And where are you going to get that?
30:49You do need to feed in.
30:52That's only when AI will start giving you results.
30:57So India is going to be a significant player.
31:00And I'm sure this partnership, what is being called now as trust, is going to deepen more.
31:08Ambassador Taranjeet Sandhu for joining me here on this India Today special broadcast.
31:14Many thanks.